Leslie Appleton Young 2010 Forecast
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California real estate market analysis by Leslie Appleton-Young, C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist
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Leslie Appleton Young 2010 Forecast
- 1. October 22, 2009 California Desert AOR Leslie Appleton-Young C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist 2010 California Real Estate Market Forecast
- 2. California Real Estate Market
- 3. California’s Housing Cycles and Membership 1970-2009 THOUSANDS
- 6. Dollar Volume of Sales Peaked in ’05 Down 55% Thru ‘09 % Change $ in Billion SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® -55%
- 9. Sales By Price Range October 2004 – present SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R. Credit Freeze: 8/2007
- 10. Peak vs Current Price - August 2009 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
- 12. Unsold Inventory Index (Months) SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
- 13. Unsold Inventory Index: Over & Under $500K SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
- 14. California – A Tale of Two Markets
- 15. Distressed Sales to Total Sales Ratio (Aug 2009) SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
- 16. Distressed Sales to Total Sales Ratio SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
- 17. Distressed Sales vs. Non Distressed Sales Source: C.A.R. 2009 Housing Market Survey
- 20. Regional Markets
- 21. Home Sales in Southern California Regions SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
- 23. Riverside County Economic Profile
- 24. Riverside County Profile 977,980 26,565 7,207 31.5 $ 58,145 $ 24,885 4.5% 6.3% 40.3% 46.7% 76.48% 32.0% 2,061,597 Statistic State Rank Characteristic 4 2007 Population Estimate 4 % Population Change 1990-2000 % White 2007 % Hispanic 2007 % Black 2007 % Asian & Pacific Islander 2007 8 2000 Total Establishments 4 Land Area Square Miles 2007 Civilian Employment 2007 Median Age 2007 Median Household Income 2007 Per Capita Income 1 % Population Change 1980-1990
- 36. Riverside: Hybrid Map Foreclosure Mapping Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
- 37. Riverside: Street Map Foreclosure Mapping Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
- 38. Palm Springs: Hybrid Map Foreclosure Mapping Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
- 39. Palm Springs: Street Map Foreclosure Mapping Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
- 40. Desert Hot Springs: Hybrid Map Foreclosure Mapping Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
- 41. Indio: Hybrid Map Foreclosure Mapping Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
- 42. Desert Hot Springs: Street Map Foreclosure Mapping Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
- 43. Indio: Street Map Foreclosure Mapping Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
- 44. 2009 Housing Market Survey
- 45. Median Price Discount And Weeks On Market Q. What was the original list sales price of the property? What was the final sales price of the property? How many weeks did the property remain on the MLS? 4.6%, 6.4 weeks
- 46. Percent with Price Discount Selling price below listing price Long Run Average = 68% Q. What was the original list sales price of the property? What was the final sales price of the property?
- 47. Median Net Cash To Sellers 2005: $220K 2009: $50K Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale? $50,000
- 48. Sellers Reporting a Net Cash Loss Percent of All Sellers Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale? Long Run Average = 9.3%
- 49. Proportion of Home Sellers Planning to Repurchase Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
- 50. Proportion of First-Time Homebuyers California Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
- 51. FHA and VA Mortgages (First Mortgage) Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage
- 53. FHA vs. Conventional (New First Mortgages )
- 54. Multiple Offers: Over 1/2 homes sold 2009 had multiple offers
- 55. Percent of Buyers with Zero Down Payment First-Time Buyers vs. Repeat Buyers 5.0% 3.7% 2.8%
- 56. Percent of All Cash Sales
- 57. Buyer Use of Property (All Homes)
- 58. Signs of Distress in 2008-2009 Sellers Are Reacting to Financial Stress The Role of Market Conditions In the Decision to Sell SOURCE: C.A.R. 2009 Survey of Home Sellers
- 59. While Buyers See Opportunities … The Role Of Market Conditions In The Decision To Buy SOURCE: C.A.R. 2009 Survey of Home Buyers
- 60. The Bottom Line: Great Time to be a First Time Buyer
- 63. Bought Home Regardless of Federal First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit? Q. Would you have bought a home if there were not a Federal First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, or if you knew you did not qualify for the credit? CAR Telephone Survey 2009
- 64. Mean = 8.1 Median = 9 Scale: “1” = very easy, “10” = very difficult Level of Difficulty to Obtain Financing (All Buyers) Q. Please rate how easy of difficult it was to obtain financing on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being very easy and 10 being very difficult.
- 65. Buyers Who Know the Terms of Their Loan Q. Do you know the term of your loan?
- 67. California Foreclosure Activity 09/06 - Present SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
- 69. US and California Economic Conditions
- 73. U.S. Savings Rate: 1960 – 2009 Is increase Permanent or Temporary? SOURCES: BEA S&P 500
- 77. Mortgage Rates and Monetary Policy “Whatever it Takes ” SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
- 79. Distressed Commercial RE Growing billions Distressed properties include those that are in bankruptcy, foreclosures, those that have received lender forbearance, or lender REO .
- 80. Commercial Debt Crisis Ahead billions
- 81. Commercial MBS Market billions
- 85. Employment Growth, California vs. U.S. 8/09 CA: -4.9% YTY 9/09 US: -4.2% YTY YEAR TO YEAR % CHANGE SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
- 86. Nonfarm Employment By Region SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
- 92. 2010 Forecast
- 93. U.S. Economy SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® Forecast Date: October 2009
- 94. California Economy SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® Forecast Date: October 2009
- 95. California Housing Market Outlook Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Forecast Date: October 2009
- 98. In Closing….
- 99. www.car.org Economics
Editor's Notes
- Peak to trough 1980s: -61% 1990s: -25% 2000s: -47%
- $ Volume of Sales = Median Price x Annual Sales
- Sales numbers revised from April 2008 to May 2009 Peak: 624,957 units in 2005 Valley: 189,345 units in 1982 Record sales in 2005 2008 annual sales up 26.8% from 2007 2007 annual sales down 27.3% from 2006 2006 annual sales down 23.6% from 2005 2005 annual sales up 0.03% from 2004 2004 annual sales up 3.8% from 2003 2003 annual sales up 5.1% from 2002 2002 annual sales up 13.6% from 2001 2001 annual sales down 5.9% from 2000 YTD 2000 annual sales down 0.4 from 1999 1999 sales up 6.4% over 1998 Consumer outlook improving as economic recovery and expansion become more evident. 10/93: 41.0 01/00: 148.6 03/03: 63.0 5/07: 128.4 2/09: 24.3
- Median pricing numbers revised from April 2008 to May 2009 Peak: $560,270 in 2007 Valley: $177,270 in 1996 High: May 2007: $594,530 2000 annual median price up 11.0% over 1999 2001 annual median price up 8.7% from 2000 2002 annual median price up 20.5% from 2001 2003 annual median price up 17.5% from 2002 2004 annual median price up 21.3% from 2003 2005 annual median price up 16.0% from 2004 2006 annual median price up 6.5% from 2005 2007 annual median price up 0.7% from 2006 2008 annual median price down 38.2% from 2007
- Sub-$500k peaked in Jan-09 at 85%
- Please note that UII from 1990-1994 have been revised following an audit of our data. Range since 1988: Low: 1.3 months in April 2004 High: 18.8 months in Feb 1991 Long-run average: 7.2 months
- will be double checking these figures….should be correct though.
- Historical data has been revised due to refined methodology. Peak: 21,199 units in 2003 Valley: 4,762 units in 1993 2008 annual sales up 91.4% from 2007 2007 annual sales down 34.9% from 2006 2006 annual sales down 23.9% from 2005 2005 annual sales down 1.9% from 2004 2004 annual sales down 13.3% from 2003 2003 annual sales up 13.2% from 2002 2002 annual sales up 13.1% from 2001 2001 annual sales down 2.9% from 2000 2000 annual sales up 10.8% from 1999 Consumer Confidence 10/93: 41.0 01/00: 148.6 03/03: 63.0 5/07: 128.4 2/09: 24.3
- Historical data has been revised due to refined methodology. Peak: 21,199 units in 2003 Valley: 4,762 units in 1993 2008 annual sales up 91.4% from 2007 2007 annual sales down 38.8% from 2006 2006 annual sales down 18.3% from 2005 2005 annual sales down 1.9% from 2004 2004 annual sales down 13.3% from 2003 2003 annual sales up 13.2% from 2002 2002 annual sales up 13.1% from 2001 2001 annual sales down 2.9% from 2000 2000 annual sales up 10.8% from 1999
- Historical data has been revised due to refined methodology. Peak: $415,008 in 2006 Valley: $113,776 in 1996 High: Feb 2007: $430,769 2008 annual median price down 39.8% from 2007 2007 annual median price down 4.8% from 2006 2006 annual median price up 5.8% from 2005 2005 annual median price up 18.9% from 2004 2004 annual median price up 33.1% from 2003 2003 annual median price up 22.8% from 2002 2002 annual median price up 17.4% from 2001 2001 annual median price up 16.5% from 2000 2000 annual median price up 12.7% over 1999 Is the affordable alternative in the region
- Historical data has been revised due to refined methodology. Peak: $415,008 in 2006 Valley: $113,776 in 1996 High: Feb 2007: $430,769 2008 annual median price down 39.8% from 2007 2007 annual median price down 4.8% from 2006 2006 annual median price up 5.8% from 2005 2005 annual median price up 18.9% from 2004 2004 annual median price up 33.1% from 2003 2003 annual median price up 22.8% from 2002 2002 annual median price up 17.4% from 2001 2001 annual median price up 16.5% from 2000 2000 annual median price up 12.7% over 1999 Is the affordable alternative in the region
- Supply of homes peaked in the last quarter of 2007, but has been dropping since. Long Run Average: 7.1 months
- 2008 annual new housing permits: 5,919 units, down 52.5% from 2007 2007 annual new housing permits: 12,453 units, down 50.6% from 2006 2006 annual new housing permits: 25,211 units, down 26.1% from 2005 2005 annual new housing permits: 34,134 units, down 0.3% from 2004 2004 annual new housing permits: 34,226 units, up 12.7% from 2003 2003 annual new housing permits: 30,361 units, up 34.0% from 2002 2002 annual new housing permits up 19.2% from 2001 2001 annual new housing permits up 23.4% from 2000 2000 annual permits up 5.7% over 1999
- Annual percent change Q2/09: Detached homes: Down 16.3% Attached homes: Down 2.9%
- The number of sellers who sold their home with a loss increased for the fifth year to 32.9 percent. It was the highest percentage since C.A.R started tracking the statistics. This is the % of Sellers who reported a net cash loss.
- Share of first-time buyers increased from 35.9 percent in 2008 to 47.0 percent in 2009, and has surged passed the long-run average of 38.6 percent. The jump in the share of first-time buyers was due primarily to the steep decline in home prices, low levels of interest rates, and the first-time buyer tax credit.
- Medians of down payment differ considerably between FHA loans and conventional loans.
- One of five buyers purchased their home with all cash, the highest since 1998.
- C.A.R.’s traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI) was replaced with the First-Time Buyer Housing Affordability Index (FTB-HAI) in 2006. C.A.R. began producing its Housing Affordability Index (HAI) in 1984. At that time, fixed-rate mortgages were the prevailing form of financing a home purchase, while the calculations used to produce the HAI reflected a 20 percent down payment. The methodology also assumed a monthly payment for principal, interest, taxes and insurance that was no more than 30 percent of a household’s income. In the more than two decades since the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® first conceived the HAI, the mortgage finance landscape has changed dramatically. The range of mortgage products available to buyers as well as underwriting criteria has changed. C.A.R. developed the new index measuring affordability for first-time home buyers to better reflect the realities of today’s real estate market.
- Foreclosure rate rising since the second half of 2005 Delinquency Rate, Low: 1.82% in Q1 2005, PRIOR CYCLE – PREVIOUS High: 6.06% in Q4 1982 Foreclosure Rate, Low: 0.12% in Q4 1979, PRIOR CYCLE – PREVIOUS High: 1.99% in Q1 1997
- SB 1137 passed in July (effect of which showed up in Sep NODs), requires lenders file a 30-day Notice of Intent to file a Notice of Default. In other words, extending the initial NOD filing. This is for Owner-occupied residential properties sold between Jan 1, 2003 and Dec 31, 2007.
- Notes: E – expected, F – forecast, P- preliminary 1929 though first quarter 2009 annual GDP figures were revised in July 2009 using 2005 benchmark.
- Consumers repairing balance sheets
- Huge LT concerns – will the Fed monetize the deifict and enflame inflation a few years out. Tight balancing act. “ Core Inflation” is All Items Less Food and Energy The CPI data is seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Go to http:// www.economy.com/freelunch/fl_dictionary.asp?m =34174038-A1EF-4C70-9374-59144B50A3F5&h=H0022000400040002&f=0&c=undefined First choose "All Items." "Monthly" and "Yr/Yr%" series. Then find "All items less food and energy" towards the bottom of the CPI list. Do the same as above.
- 1998
- 8/09 Credit is Loosening The Federal Reserve's aggressive efforts have succeeded in lowering borrowing costs and easing the credit crunch. Fixed mortgage rates are a full percentage point lower than we estimate they would be if not for the near-zero fed funds rate and the Fed's purchases of Treasury debt and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities. Without the Fed's actions, Freddie's 30-year conforming loan rate would be closer to 6% than its actual 5% The Fed Funds Rate was reduced to a target range of 0 to .25% in mid-December 2008. The spread between the FRM and ARM continues to be narrow by historic standards. SOURCE: Fed funds - Haver Analytics FRM : http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm ARM : http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmmsarm.htm
- Lower spread is a driect consequence of Fed purchases of Fannie and Freddie MBS ($375B)
- Paul Bishop – fine to use these slides. They are not proprietary to NAR, as long as we site the actual source…which we did.
- SOURCE: http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/home.htm (MUST HAVE A LOGIN AND PASSWORD) Click on Quick Order - put in code SPDJI - and order
- CA: 9/09 Unreleased 8/09 12.2% 7/09 11.9% 6/09 11.6% 5/09 11.6% 4/09 11.1% 3/09 11.2% 2/09 10.6% 1/09 10.1% 12/08 8.7% US: 9/09 9.8% 8/09 9.7% 7/09 9.4% 6/09 9.5% 5/09 9.4% 4/09 8.9% 3/09 8.5% 2/09 8.1% 1/09 7.6% 12/08 7.2% California not seasonally adjusted: 12.1% Aug-09 Based on revised figures during EDD’s early-2009 rebenchmarking, CA job market has been on a par with US market over past several months. SOURCE : http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=164
- Based on revised figures during EDD’s early-2009 rebenchmarking, CA job market has been on a par with US market over past several months.
- Sectoral Strengths: State and Local Government Retail Trade Manufacturing Education and Health Services One of the leaders in California job growth SOURCE: http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?PAGEID=166
- California not seasonally adjusted: 12.1% Aug-09 Jobless rate rising and above than other regions and state Wide divergence in jobless rate throughout country SOURCE : http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=164
- Red line represents approximate number of new households per year (estimated range: 220 to 250 thousand per year)
- NOTES: based on WBC, UCLA, LAEDC
- So far this year we have read Hot Flat and Crowded and The Ascent of Money .
- For the second half of the year we are reading two books that provide contrasting perspectives (Wall St vs. Main St) on the causes and implications of the current financial crisis: Dear Mr. Buffett Chain of Blame
- For the second half of the year we are reading two books that provide contrasting perspectives (Wall St vs. Main St) on the causes and implications of the current financial crisis: Dear Mr. Buffett Chain of Blame