2. Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright.
She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was
deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and
social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear
demonstrations.
A.Linda is a teacher in elementary school.
B.Linda works in a bookstore and takes Yoga classes.
C.Linda is active in the feminist movement.
D.Linda is a psychiatric social worker.
E.Linda is a member of the League of Women Voters.
F.Linda is a bank teller.
G.Linda is an insurance salesperson.
H.Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
2
3. 1. Take the last 3 digits of your phone
number.
2. Add 400 to that number.
3. Write that new number down and write
“AD” next to it to the right.
3
4. In what year did Attila the Hun’s rampage
through Europe finally end?
4
6. Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright.
She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was
deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and
social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear
demonstrations.
A.Linda is a teacher in elementary school.
B.Linda works in a bookstore and takes Yoga classes.
C.Linda is active in the feminist movement.
D.Linda is a psychiatric social worker.
E.Linda is a member of the League of Women Voters.
F.Linda is a bank teller.
G.Linda is an insurance salesperson.
H.Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
6
8. 85% of people will rank “Linda is a
bank teller and is active in the
feminist movement” as more
probable than “Linda is a bank
teller.”
8
9. In what year did Attila the Hun’s rampage
through Europe finally end?
9
10. Attila the Hun (406–453) was
finally routed in 451.
Initial Anchor Average Estimate
400-599 629
600-799 680
800-999 789
1000-1199 885
1200-1399 988
10
12. Imagine that the nation is preparing for the outbreak of a new Swine
Flu, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to
combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact
scienti c estimates of the consequences of the programs are as
follows:
If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.
If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability
that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability
that no people will be saved.
Imagine that the nation is preparing for the outbreak of a new Avian
Flu, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to
combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact
scienti c estimates of the consequences of the programs are as
follows:
If Program A is adopted, 400 people will die.
If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability
that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability
that 600 people will die.
12
13. “I am large, I contain multitudes”
-Walt Whitman
13
19. Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very
bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she
was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and
social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear
demonstrations.
Linda is active in the feminist movement.
Linda is a bank teller and is active in the
feminist movement.
Linda is a bank teller.
19
27. What is the default option?
Check the box if you want to participate in the organ donor program.
Check the box if you don’t want to participate in the organ donor
program.
27
29. 01 him was worried she always
02 from are Florida oranges temperature
03 ball the throw toss silently
04 shoes give replace old the
05 he observes occasionally people watches
06 be will sweat lonely they
07 sky the seamless gray is
08 should now withdraw forgetful we
09 us bingo sing play let
10 sunlight makes temperature wrinkle
raisins
29
