V4C23_First Matter_Discovery.pdf
- 5. Understanding
Overconfidence
“The most significant of the
cognitive biases.” - D. Kahneman
Confidence comes from the quality of
the story that you can tell yourself
It does NOT come from the quality of
the information that story is based on
It is the consistency of the
information that matters for a good
story, not its completeness.
An explanation for the Dunning-Kruger effect?
“What you see is all there is”
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- 6. Catastrophes Caused by Overconfidence
Overconfidence is reinforced by social norms, expectations, and rewards.
Sinking of the Titanic Space Shuttle Challenger
Disaster
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill The Great Financial Crisis And many, many more...
Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster
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