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Internet Economics: Urban and Rural perspectives

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::: SANOG-32, DHAKA, BANGLADESH :::
Next Generation Broadband [ Part – I ]
INTERNET ECONOMICS:
Urban and Rural perspec...

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“A BRIEF HISTORY OF TIME”
- STEPHEN HAWKING

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Internet Economics: Urban and Rural perspectives

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The presentation looks at various economic and business factors that impact the growth of Internet in Bangladesh. This can be a common phenomenon for countries with lack of infrastructure reach out to the rural communities.The presentation looks into possibilities whether you can bring about a tech disruption in Internet business.

The presentation looks at various economic and business factors that impact the growth of Internet in Bangladesh. This can be a common phenomenon for countries with lack of infrastructure reach out to the rural communities.The presentation looks into possibilities whether you can bring about a tech disruption in Internet business.

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Internet Economics: Urban and Rural perspectives

  1. 1. ||| ::: SANOG-32, DHAKA, BANGLADESH ::: Next Generation Broadband [ Part – I ] INTERNET ECONOMICS: Urban and Rural perspectives UTHANT RABBANI Head of Sales InterCloud SAYEEF RAHMAN Head of Systems and Strategy Digi Jadoo
  2. 2. ||| “A BRIEF HISTORY OF TIME” - STEPHEN HAWKING
  3. 3. ||| Journey of Internet in Bangladesh 1985-90 We started with a bad luck of missing the train leading to SEA-ME-WE-2 and SEA-ME-WE-3 submarine cables. 1990 First Mobile Cellphone Operator Citycell using AMPS technology (prior to CDMA). 1993 ILD / UUCP Dial- up to Hong Kong for offline e-mails back in early 1990’s through Kaifnet, ISN (BanglaNet). 1996 First VSAT established by ISN (BanglaNet) offering 64kbps through HKT. 1997 First GSM Operator license awarded to Grameen Phone. 2003 First Mobile Internet (GPRS) service launched by Grameen Phone. 2005 First submarine cable for Bangladesh – the SEA-ME-WE-4 commissioned by BSCCL. 2008-2009 First private fiber cable NTTN service provider Fiber@Home commences service. First WiMax licensee Banglalion pays $25+ million. IIG license. 2012 3G service starts with Teletalk being the first mover. >>> WHAT NEXT >>> 2018 Bangladesh launches 4G services. Source: Newspapers and Wikipedia
  4. 4. ||| The scale of Internet subscribers in Bangladesh Mobile Subscribers Internet Subscribers 150.945 Million 82.024 Million Mobile Internet Subscribers * Updated as of June 2018 from BTRC website. 87.79 Million 0.081 Million WiMax Subscribers 5.685 Million Broadband + PSTN Subscribers 93.43%0.09%6.47% Technology trend is leading towards a Wireless future
  5. 5. ||| How Internet reaches the last mile in Bangladesh Internet Peer Foreign CLS Coxs Bazar CLS BTCL/ITC ISP Consumer National transmission network backbone (NTTN / MNO) IIG Submarine / Terrestrial Cable (ITC / BSCCL) MNO / ISP backbone A B C D E F G Local ISP backbone COUNTRY X BANGLADESH COST COMPONENT Local transmission network backbone (NTTN / MNO) Considering the cost points how can we try to Standardize the cost at the last mile? Bangladesh Optimization is possible here as 70%-80% of the cost lies in this part
  6. 6. ||| Lack of infrastructure limits economic growth at last mile Proper Physical infrastructure reaching other rural areas Educational institutions; as a result less qualified resource building options High yielding economic activity Financial infrastructure Development Interest for service providers to invest This is why Government can’t decentralize This means for other areas there is a LACK of Development is always centered around Metropolitan cities and Economic growth centers which are facilitated with basic infrastructure, access to education, financial institutions and communication infrastructure AND AS A RESULT
  7. 7. ||| A lot of people are flocking towards Urban cities while others are contributing to the Digital Divide; From Regulatory perspectives network operators have a lot to do here…
  8. 8. ||| Our Regulatory Framework needs more support from us RURALURBAN Create more Business friendly environment Empowerment of Associations / Trade Bodies Fair play Are we doing enough to educate customer? Price protection for sustainability in market Creating policies for Digital Inclusion Help Enforce law and build communities for better future Raising awareness and offering VGF to build infrastructure
  9. 9. ||| For better economics hack different stages of growth Stage-1 Stage-2 Stage-3 Subscribers 0 – 1,000 subs 1,001 – 10,000 subs 10,000+ subs Bandwidth usage Upto 500Mbps Upto 10Gbps Over 10Gbps Single PoP 2-10 PoP Own Infrastructure and PoP Coverage Locality City Multiple city (Urban and/or Rural) Services Residential broadband and some corporates and scale FTP Residential, Corporate, Small scale providers, FTP services, Gaming, Residential, Corporate, Small providers, Cloud, other VAS such as FTP Gaming, Cyber Café, Hardware sales, PC repair, etc… Service optimization Transit with limited peering later in Stage-1 Routing optimization, Full fledged Peering and CDN 10G Peering, Multiple CDN, Cloud, Portal Technology Ethernet, trend moving towards GPON Ethernet, GPON Ethernet, GPON and yes tech such as P2P Radio’s!!! Staff 3-10 11-100 100+
  10. 10. ||| Why can’t we grow above Stage-3 • Knowledge • Vision • Business analysis capability • Investment • Educated personnel • Growth • Innovation Basic Internet barely satisfies needs of Information Hungry Customers LACKING
  11. 11. ||| Why can’t we grow above Stage-3 (Cont’d) • Access to International Content + Create Localized Content. • Room for Investment and Growth in content market – Netflix, Amazon, Google, FB. • Foreign organizations are bringing their focus here. DARK CONTENT Being served as an alternative to facilitate demand 90% Internet Traffic
  12. 12. ||| Big Data is the way to grow by consumer data behavior analysis Traffic usage pattern (Time of day, Weekend, Holidays) Types of traffic being used What are these traffic entities Routes being taken by such traffic How you are connected to these routes What more you can do to optimize these routes Cost factors involved for optimization (at times you don’t) Can you bring in such content and cache them Plan on how you can offer similar services Are there any regulatory constraints Customer charging and packages Better service brings better yield Happy customer is willing to pay more More Revenue = More Growth options
  13. 13. ||| Which is better: Transit vs Peering vs CDN • Transit: Start small and don’t have in-depth analysis capability (Stage-1). • Peering: Once you have grown to a level (talking about having multiple Gbps of traffic), optimize your costs by connecting other SP’s offering more routes / better traffic experience (Stage-2). • CDN: After a certain level you will realize Peering is not enough, and you will need multiple dedicated CDN to enhance customer experience and drive traffic (Stage-3).
  14. 14. ||| Transit and Peering bottlenecks + complexities 10G GE 10G GE GE 10G 10G 10G GE GE GE GE Routing | Capacity Limits | Path Content resides here; Where art thou? Local traffic requests being resolved through Internet in areas such as Cox’s Bazar 10G Peering Bottlenecks at Service Provider levels Capacity limits to reach content
  15. 15. ||| Shifting Economic Trends of the Industry • 10Gb Ethernet already in mainstream; 100GbE coming into mainstream; 400GbE and 1TbE will be affordable in a few years. • Neutrality rulings in US and EU • Highly varying benefits and downside between US and EU • Fight with the big boys, bringing benefits to us • China has secured its own position within this • The “dumb” pipes problem: Transport and IP services increasingly commoditized. • Resultantly; the global IP Transit market compresses 16- 18% per year, depending on region. • Movements to Private Data Center / Cloud Interconnection. • Massive improvements in measurement and monitoring traffic. • Content providers are willing to take content experience to new levels. • Customers looking for rich, yet simple / seamless service experience. • Innovation is fueling the Tech disruption.
  16. 16. ||| Human beings – EVOLVING! Over the years Mankind has evolved Our needs have evolved too
  17. 17. ||| IS IT TIME TO BRING A DISRUPTIVE PRODUCT / SERVICE IN BANGLADESH?
  18. 18. ||| How to design a disruptive product / service “If you design first and think later, you may be left with the tower of Pisa.” – Famous quote • Customer demand • Technology trend • Market development • Infrastructure (available and required) • Purchasing Capacity of people • Service mindset • Innovation UNDERSTANDING
  19. 19. ||| And the most essential ingredient WOW FACTOR
  20. 20. ||| Case Studies of big boys: Tech Disruption 101 Reliance Jio Google Fiber Amazon FacebookYoutube Whatsapp Tencent Singtel Except this guy everyone started off small Reference : IDC; Gartner; Researchgate.net; Case Center; Boston Consulting; Broadband forum; GSM World Congress; Google; Wikipedia Virgin Media UK
  21. 21. ||| At last but not the least: The Guru of Tech Disruption Reference : Google; Wikipedia; Newsweek; Times; NASDAQ; Boston Consulting; APPLE INC. • MAC OS • MAC (Workstation for high end graphics and programming) • Mac Book (laptop) • iTune (replaced Napster / other music services) • iPod (replaced Walkman / Discman) • iPhone (True Smart Phone revolution) • iOS (Mobile phone OS, dethroning Symbian) • iPad (Smart Tablet) • Apple TV (Video content) • Apple Watch (Smart wearable) • Apple Pay (Wallet) • Air Pod (Wireless headphones) • iCloud (Personalized cloud service) • Coming with AI product soon… NOW THEY ARE THE FIRST US$1 TRILLION Company
  22. 22. ||| Some Recommendations GOVERNMENT PATRONIZATION • GE and 10G level Peering service availability at Divisional levels connected to main Peering (NIX) exchanges in Dhaka. • Internet Gateway availability at District levels offering prices available at Dhaka. • Equipment import and clearance coordination. • Building Broadband Infrastructure to stretching to Union levels supporting growth. • Regulatory Regime support: Licensing and Guideline level bottlenecks. • Investment friendly credit facility for rural development. • Tax holiday for rural infrastructure development. MARKET DEVELOPMENT • Capacity building (Training / Workshop) for all operators periodically. • Raising awareness of Internet at Rural levels through a national campaign. • Enforcement of compliance to protect licensed operators at rural levels. • Empowerment of trade bodies such as ISPAB / BDNOG.
  23. 23. ||| UTHANT RABBANI • 22 years of experience and counting. • Head of Marketing, InterCloud (Jan 2013 till date) • Tech enthusiast having an MBA from Dhaka University, with decades of strategic and operational management experience in Datacom sector. • Mastermind, initiator, conceptualizer and the visualizer behind large number of Bangladeshi Datacom ventures such, BRAC Net, GETCO, Fusion Net and many more. • Specialized in VOIP, WIMAX, Network Infrastructure Building, Data Center, Software Development and Sustainable Project Planning. • Played leadership roles in ISPAB over the years. • Part of “Safe Internet” vision by Police – Cyber Crime Unit SAYEEF RAHMAN • 18 years of experience and counting. • Head of Systems and Strategy, Digijadoo (May 2015 till date) • Technical consultant for Bongo, Bioscope, A2I, UNDP, Inspur. • Lean Six Sigma Black Belt certified practitioner specializing in Process Management and Optimization along with Project Management. • Plus close to 80 certificates from Ericsson, Alcatel, Nokia, Huawei, Cisco, NetApp, Oracle, Microsoft, HP and BLAH BLAH centered around Networks, Data Center, Cloud, Video, HPC, Storage, Satellite, etc. • I conduct Gamestorming, Business Plan Canvas, Value Proposition Design, Lego Serious Play session. • Design policies, framework and projects from scratch!
  24. 24. ||| THANKS A LOT FOR YOUR VALUABLE TIME ::: Artwork credits to www.flaticon.com :::

Notas do Editor

  • We started with a bad luck as we missed our first train for information superhighway back in late 80’s. But as Mr. Bill Gates said, “Opportunities are like buses, you miss one, you can board the next one”.

    We got the first taste of Internet early in the 90’s through PSTN dial-up services. Mobile Internet services can be seen emerging back in 2003 with GPRS. We boarded the bus for SEA-ME-WE-4 submarine cable back in 2005.

    Our 3G and 4G services came within last 5 years with the Government planning launch of 5G in their next tenure...
  • We have similarly seen an evolution in the number of Internet subscribers in Bangladesh also within last 30 years.

    Within the last decade the number of wireless subscribers have grown exponentially.

    Most of the users as we see are from the Wireless domain and as days pass, the future looks very promising with technologies such as 5G, IoT emowering wireless.

    The trend of broadband growth in recent years have been complemented thanks to rural markets opening up and telecom regulator and infrastructure providers creating access to semi urban and rural communities.
  • Considering the cost of connecting the last mile, a majority of the cost involved (70-80%) is in local segment where we can work together to optimize the costs. Furthermore this is where Government must work together with Network Operators to create room for growth to bridge the digital divide and ensure digital inclusion.
  • If we analyze data we will be able to see that all infrastructure growth if centered around cities. The reason being availability of infrastructure and resource.

    Unfortunately for this reason there is an acute lack of development in the rural parts of the country – which is a very similar case for a lot of South Asian countries. The lack of infrastructure leads to a ripple effect which in return results in impact towards education, resource building, economic activity, financial institutional infrastructure, development of the area, lack of service providers to build infrastructure for the community and as a result Government cannot decentralize.

    As a result of this you can see what is happening in the next slide.
  • Government has taken up numerous infrastructure building projects such as InfoSarker Phase-2 and Phase-3 which aims to connect upto Union levels. This means within next 5 years we hopefully can expect rural levels of the country to come under proper communication infrastructure coverage.
  • Network Operators in Bangladesh can be classified into 3 parts (based on our experience and discussion with more than 100 operators while peering with Bioscopelive). The details of their evolution illustrates that service providers can only create new service by a few folds only due to a number of challenges which have been highlighted earlier and in the next slides.

    This is one of the reason that we have not been able to grow beyond Stage-3. Only a very limited group of network service providers have grown beyond this but nothing that we can boast about since our Internet journey.
  • Big Data is becoming more reality driven rather than a buzz word. The application of big data will help network operators analyze their room for growth and have reciprocal effect if they can revisit their broadband product design and service delivery method alignment.
  • Youtube, Facebook and others are placing their CDN when you have significant traffic in your network. But before that you need to rely on Transit and Peering to optimize traffic to and from your network. As discussed about Stage-1, 2 and 3, we need to analyze and propose for technology deployment for customer experience
  • At times ISP’s are not connected between themselves; Routing and capacity bottlenecks plague operations of ISP service and has a reciprocal affect on customer experience.
  • This is where we emotionally connect the audience to tech disruptions such as Uber, Facebook, Youtube, Food Panda where others simply chose to stay quiet.
  • Reference point: IDC, Gartner

    Reliance Jio has come up with Internet service bundle at crazy prices forcing 16 operators in India to either merge or go out of business. At present 4 remain. Now they are planning to go big into FinTech and Ecommernce.

    Google started as a humble search engine which is now taking its services to the doorstep of its users. First they came out with their own cache engine, then increased their service portfolio into mail, youtube and soon afterwards Android. Now Google fiber is yet another effort to increase their service experience and in recent years they have started coming with IoT and handheld devices and stepping into the Internet service domain.

    Singtel is the service provider of the Government of Singapore – a country smaller than Dhaka city itself. While they have 4.7 million people people in Singapore their service provider managed to charge premium compared to others such as StarHub and M1 while maintaining the leading market share and offering innovative cloud services, enterprise services, entertainment, communication services along with Global capacity services. The undersea cables SEA-ME-WE cables have significant contribution from Singtel and they are the gateway for more than 11 sub-sea cables going through Singapore making them the strategic data hub of South Asia.

    Virgin Media started their services as a virtual service provide which took advantage of the Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) from British Telecom. Today their services have grown by multifolds and they have own infrastructure as well.
  • Apple has come out as one of the largest tech disrupters in the industry offering constant innovation till the death of Steve Jobs.

    They are barreling down to become the
  • Apple has come out as one of the largest tech disrupters in the industry offering constant innovation till the death of Steve Jobs.

    They are barreling down to become the

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