its ppt presented for climate smart agriculture at africa center of excellence and didn't published any where , the ppt useful fo every one working on climate modeling and metrologists as well as this document is important for the student working on climate change and wants to improve their educational knowledge

1. V. R. Reddy
Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, USDA-
ARS, 10300 Baltimore Ave. Beltsville, MD 20705, USA
V. Ambumozhi
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Kansai Research Center, Kobe 651-00, Japan
K. R. Reddy
Dept. of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS 39762, USA
Achieving Food Security and Mitigating Global
Environmental Change: Is there a role for Crop
Models in Decision Making?

2. Outline
• Past and future trends in population, food
production and climate change perturbations
• Global environmental change and its impact
on agriculture production systems
• Role of crop simulation models in addressing
future food security and climate change

3. Issues of 21st Century, Particularly in
Developing Countries
• Meeting food demands for the growing
population
• Reducing the risks of soil and ecosystem
degradation
• Minimizing the risks of eutrophication and
contamination of natural waters
• Decreasing the net emissions CO2 and other
greenhouse gases

4. Trends That Shape Our Future

5. Year
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Population
in
Billions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
World Population
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Past, Present and Future World Population

6. Population,
millions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000
2050
Asia
Oceania
(less China and India)
China India Africa Europe Latin
America
North
America
2,367
1,437
1,628
1,941
668
778
457
1,520
1,301
1,087
885
728
549
326
56% 10% 50% 120%
-5% 42% 39%
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Present and Future World Population Trends

7. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Global Major Foods – Per Capita Consumption
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Consumtion,
lb/person
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Selected fruits = 1.95 lb/year
Vegetables = 3.21 lb/year
Flour and Cereals = 2.70 lb/year
Meat and Poultry = 0.65 lb/year

8. P= 67%, and A= 46%
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Maize
yield,
kg
ha
-1
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
USA: 156% @ 114 kg yr-1
China: 335% @ 100 kg yr-1
USA
China
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Maize
production,
MMt
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USA
China
Yield Production
Brazil: 157% @ 47 kg yr-1
Brazil
Brazil
USA: 226% @ 3.90 MMt yr-1
China: 631% @ 2.77 MMt yr-1
Brazil: 364% @ 0.73 MMt yr-1
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Maize - Production and Yield – Selected
Counties

9. Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rice
yield,
kg
ha
-1
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
China: 205% @ 102 kg yr
-1
India: 90% @ 42 kg yr
-1
Indonesia: 156% @ 77 kg yr
-1
China
Indonesia
India
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rice
production,
MMt
0
50
100
150
200
250
Indonesia: 132% @ 1.12 MMt yr
-1
India: 339% @ 2.15 MMt yr
-1
China: 232% @ 2.98 MMt yr
-1
China
Indonesia
India
Yield Production
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Rice - Production and Yield – Selected Counties
P= 60%, and A= 55%

10. Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rice
yield,
t
ha
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
USA, 70 kg yr-1
Indonesia, 77 kg yr1
Japan, 32 kg yr-1
India, 42 kg yr-1
Thailand, 21 kg yr-1
China, 102 kg yr-1
World 2004 average = 3.97 t ha
-1
World, 53 kg yr1
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Rice - Production and Yield – Selected Counties

11. Cropland area Irrigated area Salinized area
----------------------------- Mha --------------------------------
China 124.0 54.4 (22%) 7-8 (14%)
India 161.8 54.8 (31%) 10-30 (50%)
USA 177.0 22.4 (13%) 4.5 -6 (15%)
USSR 204.1 19.9 (2%) 2.5-4.5 (21%)
World 1364.2 271.7 (21%) 62-82 (37%)
Percent change since 1985
Year 2000
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Cropland area, Irrigation and Salinization
S.G. Pritchard and J. S. Amthor, 2005

12. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Population, cereal yield, arable and irrigated
area, N use
Year
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Relative
valuses
(1961=1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Cereal yield
Arable land area
Irrigated land area
Population
Fertilizer use
2000 values are:
Cereal yield = 2.25
Arable area = 1.09
Irrigated area = 1.98
Population = 1.97
Fertilizer use = 4.33

13. Feeding 10 Billion Mouths
• We must develop the capacity to feed 10 billion
people within in the next 40 to 50 years
• The average world current cereal yield is about 3
tons per ha for about 6 billion people
• We need about 4 tons per ha for 8 billion (33 %
more than the current), and 5 tons per ha for 10
billion (67 % more than the current)

14. • Increase in the area of land under cultivation
• Displacement of lower yielding crops by higher
yielding ones (done since the dawn of
domestication)
• Efficiency of crop production in terms of:
Per unit of land area (yield per ha)
Per unit of time
Per unit of inputs such as fertilizers, water and
labor etc.
Routes to Greater Food Production

15. Here comes the greatest
challenge of our time,
The Global Climate Change

16. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the
Earth
• Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O etc.)
• Temperatures
• Glaciers, oceans and sea-levels
• Precipitation patterns and drought intensities
• Extreme events
• Higher ozone and UV-B radiation

17. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Global Carbon Emissions- Sources
Year
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Million
metric
tons
of
carbon
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Total
Liquids
Solids
Gases
Cement
Flaring
Year
1750 1775 1800 1825 1850
Million
metric
tons
of
carbon
0
10
20
30
40
50
60

18. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Global Carbon Emissions and Carbon Fixation

19. Year
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
CO
2
Concentration,
ppm
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration

20. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Projected Global Carbon Dioxide
Concentrations

21. CFCs are commonly used as refrigerants, solvents, and foam
blowing agents. The most common CFCs are CFC-11, CFC-12,
CFC-113, CFC-114, and CFC-115.
Global Warming and the Ozone Story
Global Warming Process Ozone Depleting Process

22. Period CO2 Methane Nitrous
oxide
Chloroflu-
rocarbon-
11
Hydrofluro
-carbon-23
Perfluro-
methane
Pre-industrial
concentration
(1850)
about
280
ppm
about
700
ppb
about
270
ppb
zero zero 40
ppt
Concentration
in 1998
365
ppm
1745
ppb
314
ppb
268
ppt
14
ppt
80
ppt
Rate of
change
1.5
ppm/yr
7.0
ppb/yr
0.8
ppb/yr
-1.4
ppt/yr
0.55
ppt/yr
1
ppt/yr
Atmospheric
lifetime
5 to
200
years
12
years
114
years
45
years
260
Years
>50,000
years
Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Past and current levels in global greenhouse
gas concentrations, rates of change and atmospheric lifetime

23. Trends, Signs and Signatures from the Earth
Future trends in global carbon dioxide concentration and
associated climate change, if no interventions are made
Climate variable 2025 2050 2100
Carbon dioxide
concentration
405-460
ppm
445-640
ppm
540-970
ppm
Global mean
temperature change
from the year 1990
0.4-1.1
oC
0.8-2.6
oC
1.4-5.8
oC
Global mean sea-level
rise from the year
1990
3-14
cm
5-32
cm
9-88
cm

24. Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Cotton Photosynthesis – Solar Radiation
Solar Radiation, MJ m-2 d-1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Canopy
Net
Photosynthesis,
g
CO
2
m
-2
d
-1
0
50
100
150
200
250
360 ppm
720 ppm

25. Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Photosynthesis – Leaf Water Potential
Midday Leaf Water Potential, MPa
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
Photosynthesis,
mg
CO
2
m
-2
s
-1
0
2
4
6
8
10
PPF, 1600 µmol m
-2
s
-1
350 µl l-1
CO2
700 µl l
-1
CO2
Well-watered Water stressed

26. Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Cotton Photosynthesis – UV-B Radiation
UV-B radiation, kJ m-2 d-1
0 8 16
Leaf
photosynthesis,
µmol
m
-2
s
-1
0
10
20
30
40
50
360
720

27. Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Temperature and CO2 – Rice Growth
Temperature, °C
20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
Biomass,
g
plant
-1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
330 ppm
660 ppm
20% more at 660 than at 330
Baker and Allen, 1993

28. Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Temperature and CO2 – Rice Yield
Temperature, °C
20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38
Rice
yield,
t
ha
-1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
330 ppm
660 ppm
Baker and Allen, 1993

29. Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Rice Growing Areas

30. Growing season temperatures from those locations listed in
the previous slide and with an additional 5°C added to those
temperatures relative to optimum and marginal conditions
Sites
Temperature,
°C
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ambient temperature: 25.36°C = 8.26 t/ha
Ambient plus 5°C: 30.36°C = 5.51 t//ha, 33%

31. 20 25 30 35 40
4-week old cotton seedlings
Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Temperature and Cotton Growth

32. Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Temperature and CO2 – Cotton Reproductive Growth
Temperature, °C
24 26 28 30 32 34
(g
kg
-1
Dry
Weight)
0
100
200
300
400
350 µL L-1
700 µL L-1
Fruit
Production
Efficiency
Fruit Production Efficiency

33. High Temperature Effects on Cotton
Heat-blasted flower buds and flowers
San Joaquin Valley, California

34. Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Temperature Effects on Crop Yield – Several Major Crops
Crop Topt,
°C
Tmax,
°C
Yield
at Topt, t/ha
Yield
at 28
°C, t/ha
Yield at
32°C
t/ha
% decrease
(28 to 32 °C)
Rice 25 36 7.55 6.31 2.93 54
Soybean 28 39 3.41 3.41 3.06 10
Dry bean 22 32 2.87 1.39 0.00 100
Peanut 25 40 3.38 3.22 2.58 20
Grain
sorghum
26 35 12.24 11.75 6.95 41

35. Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Temperature and CO2 – Rangeland C4 Grass –
Big Bluestem
Temperature, °C
15 20 25 30 35 40
Vegaetative
biomass,
g
plant
-1
0
10
20
30
40
50
Seed
weight,
g
plant
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
360 ppm
720 ppm Vegaetative
Reproductive
1.5% °C-1
8.4% °C-1
Vegetative Weight and Seed Weight

36. Day of the Year
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Temperature,
°C
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Phoenix, AZ
Stoneville, MS
Maros, Indonesia
Long-Term Average Temperatures

37. Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Present and Projected Temperature Changes
Day of the year
0 60 120 180 240 300 360
Temperature,
o
C
0
10
20
30
40
50
Hyderabad
Stoneville, MS
Stoneville, MS + Projected climate
Hyderabad + Projected climate
Optimum temperature for Rice

38. • Even though elevated CO2 provided greater protection from
abiotic stress effects on vegetative and photosynthetic processes,
the damaging effects of either high temperatures or elevated UV-
B levels on reproductive process were not ameliorated by
elevated CO2.
• There are no beneficial effects of elevated CO2 on reproductive
processes in the crops investigated (cotton, bean, rice, sorghum
and soybean).
• There are no beneficial interaction of temperature or UV-B on
CO2 effects on reproductive processes.
• Higher temperatures and higher UV-B aggravated the damage on
many reproductive processes.
Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Conclusions – Temperature and CO2 Interactions

39.  Provide quantitative description and understanding
of biological problems
 Help pinpoint knowledge gaps
 Design critical experiments
 Synthesize knowledge about different components
of a system
 Summarize data
 Transfer research results to users
Why Do We Need Models?

40.  Farm management (e.g. planting, irrigation, fertilization
and harvest scheduling)
 Resource management (e.g. several Govt. agencies and
private comp. use)
 Climate change and policy analysis
 Production forecasts (e.g. global, regional and local
forecasts)
 Research and development (e.g. research priorities and
guide fund allocations)
 Turning information into knowledge (e.g. information
overflow in every area including agricultural research)
Crop Model Applications for Natural
Resource Management

41. Model Mechanics
GOSSYM: Model Structure
PMAP
COTPLT
GOSSYM
CLYMAT
SOIL
CHEM
PNET
GROWTH
PLTMAP
OUTPUT
PIX
PREP
RUTGRO
NITRO
MATAL
DATES
TMPSOL
FRTLIZ
ET
UPTAKE
CAPFLO
NITRIF
RIMPED
ABSCISE
FREQ
RAIN
FERT
RUNOFF GRAFLO
 Models needs to be robust as
simple models can’t predict
complex process.
 Like any other system, models
needs to be continuously updated
as new information becomes
available.
 Models needs to be extensively
tested across diverse
environments, soil conditions and
cultural practices.
 Information feedback from
scientists, farmers and farm
managers needs to be taken for
user-friendliness.
Mechanistic, process-level cotton
simulation model - GOSSYM

42. Crop Model Applications for climate Change
Scenarios – Case Study
Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Effect
(without change in other climate variables)
Year
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Lint
yield,
lbs/acre
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
CO2 effect
Climate Change Scenarios
Hot/Dry Hot/Wet Cold/Dry Cold/Wet Normal
Lint
Yield
(kg
ha
-1
)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1980
1993
1984
1989
1992
Current
Current with elevated CO2
Future
Reddy et al., 2002

43. Crop Model Applications for climate Change
Scenarios – Regional Emphasis
Doherty et al. 2003)

44. • Climate change has no boundaries, and can’t be viewed
in isolation.
• We should consider other stresses on food production
systems such as population dynamics, habitat
destruction and fragmentation, land-use changes,
biodiversity and invasive species dominance.
• The current and projected changes in climate are
unprecedented, and the ecosystems including managed
ecosystems such as agriculture may not cope with the
changes projected in climate.
Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Some Considerations

45. • Except limiting the causes of climate change, there are
no other long-term strategies.
• For a shorter-term, we must develop crop varieties
which can withstand changes projected in climate to
meet the growing demands for food.
• We must also develop models that provide adequate
warning or guidance for policy makers to act
proactively rather than reactively.
• Everybody and every nation should participate in the
process, opportunities are there for everyone.
Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Some Considerations

46. We will be over 10 billion by
2050 in a much different climate
than what we have today
We need to produce enough
goods and services in a
sustainable way
Thanks and any Questions?

47. Leading America towards a better future
through agricultural research and information