This document summarizes a presentation on tailoring arms control to the new strategic environment. It argues that arms control can provide transparency, predictability, and reciprocity to enhance strategic stability, even as the strategic environment changes. It acknowledges different perspectives from NATO and Russia on issues like aggression, defense modernization, and arms control. The document suggests maintaining cooperation where possible, using creative arms control approaches, and providing tailored deterrence and assurance to allies. The overall aim is to adapt arms control to avoid crises in the evolving strategic landscape.

1. Tailoring Arms Control in
the New Strategic
Environment
Dr. Heather Williams
Department of War Studies
King’s College London
April 12, 2016

2. Bottom Line
• Arms control does not equal disarmament
• Arms control and deterrence are not mutually exclusive
Arms control is a tool for strategic stability and its
benefits of
(1) transparency,
(2) predictability, and
(3) reciprocity
are applicable to the new strategic environment.

3. The ‘New’ Strategic Stability

4. How We Got Here
NATO Perspective:
• Russian aggression
• Russian defence
modernization
• Russian nuclear sabre-
rattling
Russian Perspective:
• US unipolarity
• US defence
modernization (CPGS,
missile defence)
• US rejection of arms
control

5. Arms Control Futures
NATO/US perspective:
• Challenges: Russian
violations of INF, TNW,
domestic factors
Russia perspective:
• Challenges: MD and/or
CPGS must be included,
multilateral
Russia needs arms control more than the
United States does for cost-savings,
strategic stability, and prestige.

6. Tailoring Arms Control
• Maintain remaining areas of cooperation
• Get creative about arms control
• Transparency with friends and potential adversaries
• Predictability to avoid crises escalation
• Reciprocity is not always like-for-like
• ‘Strategic patience’ (hopefully not waiting in vain)

7. Tailoring Assurance
• ‘All allies are special like all children are special.’
• Tools: conventional, missile defence, defence
spending, nuclear modernization

8. Final Thoughts from
Henry Kissinger (and Heather Williams)
“It is not a matter of what is true that counts but a matter of
what is perceived to be true.”
“What in the name of God is strategic superiority?”
• Tools for the ‘new’ strategic stability:
• Arms control: creative suggestions?
• Tailored deterrence: alternatives to ‘cross-domain deterrence’?
• Tailored assurance: who needs what and when?
• What is the next ‘new’ strategic stability?