72nd SWCS International Annual Conference July 30-August 2, 2017 Madison, WI

1. Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia and Nutrient
Reduction Goals and Challenges in
the Mississippi River Basin
August 1, 2017

2. Our Agenda Today:
• Overview of Partnership, Mississippi River Basin Goals and Tracking Progress
• Katie Flahive, US EPA, Hypoxia Task Force Coordinating Committee Federal Co-chair
• Moira Mcdonald, Walton Family Foundation
• State Perspective, Need for Nonpoint Source Reporting
• Matt Lechtenberg, Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Hypoxia Task
Force Coordinating Committee State Co-chair and NPS Measures Workgroup Chair
• Julie Harrold, Indiana State Department of Agriculture, Pilot State
• Development Team Perspective
• Laura Christianson, University of Illinois, SERA-46 member
• Reid Christianson, University of Illinois, Project Lead
• Future Involvement by Other Stakeholders
• Panel and audience open discussion, facilitated by Rebecca Power, University of Wisconsin
and Amanda Gumbert, University of Kentucky (SERA-46 Development Team Members)

3. Hypoxia Task Force and Goals

4. • US Army Corps of Engineers
• US Environmental Protection
Agency
• US Department of Agriculture
• US Geological Survey
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
• National Tribal Water Council
5 Federal Agencies and Tribes:
12 State Agencies:
• Arkansas
• Missouri
• Iowa
• Tennessee
• Minnesota
• Indiana
• Ohio
• Louisiana
• Illinois
• Mississippi
• Kentucky
• Wisconsin
Each state is represented by one of:
Agriculture agency, Environmental Quality agency, or Natural
Resources agency
Hypoxia Task Force Members
Mississippi River Basin
HTF States

5. History of the Hypoxia Task Force
• Formed in the late 1990s based on the White House Committee on
Environment and Natural Resources’ “Integrated Assessment”
• Scientific basis for 2001 Action Plan
• Led to focus on N reduction in the MARB
• 2004 white paper  Is P a co-driver of the hypoxic zone?
• 2001 Action Plan called for Reassessment
• Convened four science symposia
• EPA Science Advisory Board formed a panel, took symposia outcomes
• 2008 revised Action Plan
• Calls for need for state strategies and dual nutrient reduction effort
• Called for 2013 Reassessment

6. Current HTF Focus Areas
• Tracking progress towards the goal
• Nutrient Reduction Strategies
• SERA-46 Priorities for Collaboration
• Collaboration and Partnerships
• Communicating Success

7. HTF Focus: State Nutrient Strategies
HTF Progress to Date
• All twelve states have developed
draft or completed strategies
• Implementation on the ground in
state priority watersheds
• Point Source Measures Report,
2016
• NPS Measures Report in 2017
• Revised Federal Strategy, 2016
• Continue to build and leverage
partnerships

8. HTF Science Based Goal
Coastal Goal:
By 2035, reduce 5-year running average size
of the Gulf hypoxic zone to 5,000 km2
Interim Target:
20% reduction of nitrogen and
phosphorus loading by 2025

9. NOAA, USGS and partners predict third largest Gulf of
Mexico summer ‘dead zone’ ever
Larger-than-average low and no oxygen area may affect the region’s shrimp fisheries
• Federal scientists forecast that this summer’s Gulf of Mexico dead zone will be approximately 8,185 square
miles, or about the size of New Jersey.
• This would be the third largest dead zone recorded since monitoring began 32 years ago – the average Gulf
dead zone since then has been 5,309 square miles.
• The Gulf dead zone may also slow shrimp growth, leading to fewer large shrimp, according to a NOAA-
funded study led by Duke University.
• This year’s predicted large size is due mainly to heavy May stream flows, which were about 34 percent above
the long-term average and carried higher-than-average nutrient loads. The USGS estimates that 165,000 metric
tons of nitrate and 22,600 metric tons of phosphorus flowed down the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers into
the Gulf of Mexico in May.
• The partners plan to confirm the size of the 2017 Gulf dead zone in early August, following monitoring surveys.
• The ensemble of models that are the foundation of the forecast was developed by NOAA-sponsored teams of
researchers at the University of Michigan, Louisiana State University, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium,
Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences/College of William and Mary, Texas A&M University, North Carolina State
University and the USGS.

10. Nutrients in the Mississippi River and
Northern Gulf of Mexico

11. N&P Sources
USGS SPARROW model estimates of sources of total nitrogen and total phosphorus
transported from Mississippi River Basin to Gulf of Mexico (Robertson and Saad 2013).

12. The 2012-2016 five-year average is about
10 percent below the 1980-1996 baseline
period for nitrate and 22 percent above the
baseline period for orthophosphorus
(USGS 2014a).

13. Annual TN and total phosphorus loads in
the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin
transported to the Gulf of Mexico from
1980 to 2015. (USGS 2017)

15. Tracking Progress Towards Our Goal

16. Tracking Progress Towards Our Goal
• Develop basin-scale nonpoint source measures
• This year, develop and report on common NPS
metrics by state
• Point source measures
• First report out in March 2016
• Continue to develop PS metrics
• Modeling considerations
• How can state information and data be used by
federal and regional modelers in MARB scale
nutrient reduction tracking models?

17. THANK YOU!
For more information visit:
www.epa.gov/ms-htf