Energy Security in Transition Region
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This presentation is made by Chloé Le Coq and Elena Paltseva. Presented during the Development Day conference 2019.
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Energy Security in Transition Region
- 1. ENERGY SECURITY IN TRANSITION REGION Chloé Le Coq Elena Paltseva SITE SITE Paris II-Panthéon-Assas New Economic School, Moscow SITE Development Day The Long Shadow of Transition: The State of Democracy in Eastern Europe Nov 12 2019
- 2. Our Focus • Energy security = continuous availability of energy at affordable prices • This talk A subset of transition countries: • 10 EU member states (entrants of 2004 and 2007) – Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia • 4 European CIS countries: Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Belarus concentrating on the link between energy security and natural gas dependency
- 3. Energy security and natural gas Natural gas: a strategic energy commodity § Even with different share of gas in primary consumption across the region : 7% for Estonia to 64% for Belarus Russian gas: an eternal energy security concern § Transition region highly dependent on Russian gas -Russia supplies more than 70% of gas imports in 2017 § Transportation via pipeline - limited possibilities to switch suppliers • History of gas wars between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Hungary Poland Romania Slovenia Slovakia Ukraine Georgia Moldova Belarus Russia's share of gas imports in 2010 Sources: Eurostat, Comtrade (Belarus, Georgia). 2010 data for Georgia is missing, so the 2015 data is used
- 4. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Bulgaria C zechiaEstoniaLatvia Lithuania H ungaryPoland R om ania Slovenia Slovakia U kraine G eorgia M oldovaBelarus Russia's share of gas imports 2010 2017 Gas imports between 2010 and 2017 § The region used to be (and still is) very dependent on Russian gas • BUT there have been some changes recently Sources: Eurostat, Comtrade (Belarus, Georgia). 2010 data for Georgia is missing, so the 2015 data is used for comparison
- 5. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Bulgaria C zechiaEstoniaLatvia Lithuania H ungaryPoland R om ania Slovenia Slovakia U kraine G eorgia M oldovaBelarus Russia's share of gas imports 2010 2017 Gas imports between 2010 and 2017 Ukraine stopped buying gas from Russia Sources: Eurostat, Comtrade (Belarus, Georgia). 2010 data for Georgia is missing, so the 2015 data is used for comparison
- 6. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Bulgaria C zechiaEstoniaLatvia Lithuania H ungaryPoland R om ania Slovenia Slovakia U kraine G eorgia M oldovaBelarus Russia's share of gas imports 2010 2017 Gas imports between 2010 and 2017 Poland and Lithuania reduced significantly Russian gas imports Sources: Eurostat, Comtrade (Belarus, Georgia). 2010 data for Georgia is missing, so the 2015 data is used for comparison
- 7. Ukraine, the change of gas provider Ukraine is buying from the European market using the reverse flow technology - main suppliers in 2017: Switzerland and Germany The European market strategy § limited direct dependency on Russia BUT substantial part of gas in Europe has Russian origin – indirect dependency § benefits from EU bargaining power -EU is a large gas consumer and trade partner for Russia -10 EU transition countries benefit from “buyer power” of the EU due to their membership • Though benefits are incomplete due to inability of the EU to agree on common external energy policy -Ukraine gets some of this “buyer power” through market mechanism (Active EU participation to the ongoing renegotiations of gas transit deal between Russia and Ukraine)
- 8. Poland and Lithuania, the investment choice Poland and Lithuania built LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) terminals Proactive approach • limited direct dependency on Russia • increase countries’ significance in regional gas trade -Become local gas hub BUT extremely costly strategy
- 9. Summing up § Better energy security of the region, in particular reduced exposure to Russian gas § Improvements made possible due to technological breakthroughs -Reverse flow technology: Ukraine benefits from EU bargaining power via the market -LNG: Poland and Lithuania diversify sources of imports § Downsides -these solutions are costly to implement -gas they provide is likely to be more expensive than the one from Russia -LNG is only feasible for the countries with a sea access -while gas is better than coal and oil in terms of CO2 emissions, the environmental concern is not entirely absent (decarbonization)
- 10. Alternative ways to improve energy security § Use of other sources of gas from Turkey, Azerbaijan, etc. -Poland currently involved with the Baltic Pipeline project -has long been on agenda – think of Nabucco, etc., but still delayed § More green energy in energy portfolio -a few transition countries are lagging behind including green energy into energy portfolio Note: Includes biofuels (excluding traditional use), solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, marine 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% EU-28,2017 Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Hungary Poland Romania Slovenia Slovakia Ukraine Georgia Moldova Belarus Share of renewables in final energy consumption, 2016, IEA
- 11. Alternative ways to improve energy security (cont.) Increased energy efficiency § Serious issue for some of the transition states, especially the CIS countries § Improvements in energy efficiency are likely to decrease energy consumption /imports/dependency, thereby improving energy security 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 EU-28,2017 Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Hungary Poland Romania Slovenia Slovakia Ukraine Georgia Moldova Belarus Energy intensity, 2016, IEA (primary energy supply/GDP, TOE/K$),