This presentation was presented by Yauheniya Shershunovic during the annual SITE Development Day 2021 conference at Stockholm School of Economics via Zoom. Disclaimer: SITE has the permission from Yauheniya Shershunovic to upload this presentation slide.

1. Economic Aspects of Environmental Issues in
Belarus
Yauheniya Shershunovich
Irina Tochitskaya
8th December, 2021

2. Environmental Performance Index 2020 (score)
Source: Wendling, Z.A., Emerson, J.W., de Sherbinin, A., Esty, D.C., et al. (2020). 2020 Environmental Performance Index.

3. GHG Emissions Trends in Belarus
(in mln tons of CO2-equivalents)
Source: the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (2021).

4. Background and Study Objectives
• International trade is going more and more into a climate dimension (rising demand for
ecological products; introduction of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)).
• Belarus’ exports of goods to GDP ratio varied between 57.33-62.60% in 2015-2019.
• According to the Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a
carbon border adjustment mechanism (European Commission, 2021), Belarus is among the
top-5 potentially most exposed countries the CBAM.
Study objectives:
(1) to estimate the carbon intensity of the main Belarusian industries for 2019
(2) to assess the carbon footprint of domestic consumption and exports
(3) to evaluate potential payments for exported Belarusian products falling within the scope of
the CBAM

5. Carbon Intensity of the Belarusian Economy in 2019
Emissions intensity in tons of CO2-equivalents per 1000 USD of output (top-10 industries)
Source: Authors’ own calculations.

6. Carbon Footprint of Domestic Consumption and
Gross Exports
Country Carbon Footprint of
Domestic Consumption
(mln tons of CO2)
Carbon Footprint of
Domestic Consumption
per capita (mln tons of
CO2 per capita)
(Domestic) Carbon
Footprint of Gross
Exports (mln tons of
CO2)
Belarus 40.2 4.3 18.8
Czech Republic 91.8 8.7 36.7
Hungary 48.3 4.9 19.5
Poland 273.8 7.2 72.4
Lithuania 14.2 4.8 3.8
Latvia 9.2 4.6 2.4
Estonia 13.3 10.1 6.1
Sweden 70.2 7.2 14.6
Germany 853.4 10.4 199.9
France 445.0 6.9 71.0
Source: for Belarus – Authors’ own calculation; for OECD countries – OECD database.

7. Carbon Intensity of the Belarusian Manufacturing Sector in
2019
Emissions intensity in tons of CO2-equivalents per 1000 USD of output (top-10 industries)
Source: Authors’ own calculations.

8. Potential Payments for Belarus if the CBAM to be introduced
Categories of
goods falling within
the scope of the
CBAM
CO2 footprint from
exports, tons of
CO2
Payments for CO2
footprint, thsd
USD
CO2 and N2O
footprint from
exports, tons of
CO2-equiv.
Payments for CO2
and N2O footprint,
thsd USD
CO2 , N2O and CH4
footprint from
exports, tons of
CO2-equiv.
Payments for CO2 ,
N2O and CH4
footprint, thsd
USD
Cement 85502.13 6146.37 86116.45 6190.53 89439.81 6429.43
Inorganic chemicals 122518.32 8807.30 146061.41 10499.71 161966.57 11643.06
Fertilizers 97071.94 6978.07 115725.26 8318.98 128327.01 9224.86
Iron and steel 6102.66 438.69 6175.16 443.91 13502.21 970.61
Articles of iron and
steel
55694.53 4003.63 56356.18 4051.20 123224.80 8858.09
Aluminium and
articles
71529.01 5141.91 72378.78 5202.99 158258.77 11376.53
Total 438418.58 31515.98 482813.23 34707.32 674719.16 48502.59
Source: Authors’ own calculations.
The price for a ton of CO2 emissions was 71.89 USD as of 10.09.2021.
Thus, the introduction of the CBAM can be equivalent to the additional import duty on the exported
Belarusian goods, equal to about 3.4-3.8% for inorganic chemicals and fertilizers; 6.7-13.7% for
metals and their articles and 6.5-6.6% for mineral products depending on the scenario.

9. Policy Recommendations
• Improve the system of emissions monitoring in Belarus
and create the National inventory of carbon units;
• Develop and implement an emissions trading system;
• Stimulate enterprises to implement cleaner technologies
and measures designed to decrease their emissions.

10. ThankYouForYourAttention