Foresight General Concept & Methodology

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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported
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RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM
rushdi@might.org.my
FORESIGHT
CONCEPT & METHODOLOGY

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The Governing Board....provide advise on the strategic direction and focus areas of the institute

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www.might.org.my
www.myforesight.my

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periodic publications

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Introduction to Foresight & Futures
Foresight tools and methodology

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“However good our futures research may be,
we shall never be able to escape from the
ultimate dilemma that all our knowledge is
about the past, and all our decision are
about the future”
IAN WILSON
“The only way to predict the
future is to have power to shape
the future”
ERIC HOFFER
“The present moment contains past
and future. The secret of
transformation, is in the way we
handle this very moment.”
NHAT HANH
“Trying to predict the future is
like trying to drive a country
road with no lights while looking
out the back window”
PETER DRUCKER

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foresight &
futures thinking

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future is not necessarily
continuation of the past

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1 2 3
4 5
By 1967, London would be buried six
feet deep in horse dung!

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predictions gone wrong

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“There is no reason anyone would want a
computer in their home.”
Ken Olson, 1977
President, chairman and founder of
Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC)

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“Heavier-than-air flying machines are
impossible.”
Lord Kelvin, 1895
British mathematician and physicist,
President of the British Royal Society.

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“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty
of messenger boys.”
Sir William Preece, 1878
Chief Engineer, British Post Office,

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what is Foresight?

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“Foresight is a matter of studying the present,
learning from the past and understanding the needs
of the future”
Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad

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Learning of the past to
ensure we avoid repeating
mistakes
USING THE PAST &
FUTURE TO DECIDE ON
TODAY
Understanding & exploring futures to
mitigate risk and maximizing
opportunities
Certain. Things have happened
• Can’t change
• Historical data
Moving. Constant changes
• Respond & adapt
• Shape & influence
Uncertain. Have not happened
• Shape & influence

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…Foresight prepares us to meet the need and
opportunities of the future... It is not planning
but merely a step in planning…
Joseph Coates

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The terms ‘Foresight’ and ‘Futures’ are largely interchangeable, referring to:
‘systematic and purposeful processes of future-oriented deliberation
between participants with a view to identifying actions to be taken, or
goals to be pursued for better future outcomes.’
FORESIGHT
Participation
Stakeholders
Engagement
Action
Policy-making
&
Planning
Anticipation
Prospective
&
Futures
Adopted from: R. Popper

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objectives of Foresight
Direction setting: provides direction
and focus for national strategic
planning and other strategy to realize
the objectives of Vision or Goals
Determining priorities:
perhaps the most important
aim of Foresight and the
driving force in most of the
documented country exercises
against a background of
resources restraint and
increasing demands
Anticipatory intelligence:
identification of emerging
trends with major implications
for future policy making
Consensus
generation:
promotion of
greater agreement
among stakeholders
on identified needs
or opportunities
Advocacy: promotion of policy
decisions in line with preferences of
specific stakeholders in the system
Communication and education:
promotion of internal
communication within the
stakeholders community,
promotion of external
communications with users of
policy and wider education of the
general public, politicians and
bureaucrats.

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the tools & methods

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Scenario
Planning
Technology
Prioritization
Online
Survey
Bibliography
Analysis
Patent
Analysis
STEEP
Analysis
Delphi
Expert
Panels
Workshops
& Focus
Groups
choosing the right method
• To negate the relatively high level of cynicism of the
stakeholders;
• To enable change of thinking and mind set;
• To inculcate and incorporate discipline and subjectivity. This
includes receptiveness towards methods and systematic
approaches of foresight;
• To ensure engagement of diverse and equal distribution of
participants;
• The need to sustain continued interest in the foresight exercises
by introducing creative and participatory approaches;
• Enabling use of multi tools environment
• The need to educate potential stakeholders on the benefits
and potential impact of foresight;
Methods that were chosen signify the needs to cater its
adoption to Malaysia’s case studies. Therefore the selection
and combination of methods are made to ensure the best
outcome and participation of stakeholders in Malaysia. This
includes but not limited to the following:-

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generic Foresight process

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how we do it?
Data Collection &
Analysis
Scenario Building
Identification &
Recommendations
DIAGNOSIS
PROGNOSIS
PRESCRIPTION

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how we do it?
 What are the objectives?
 What Time Horizon are we looking at?
 Building on existing resources and
materials
 What is the cost?
 Who are the stakeholders?
 Stakeholders availability?
 How much time do you have?
 Matching skills & competencies…
Data Collection &
Analysis
Scenario Building
Identification &
Recommendations
DIAGNOSIS
PROGNOSIS
PRESCRIPTION
Foresight Scoping

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Scenarios
Analysis
Scenarios
Building
the process
List of Sector’s
Drivers
Consolidation of data
gathering - Sector
Social
Technology
Economy
Environment
Policy
Key Strategic
Areas & Action
Plan
Defining criteria
Feasibility
Signposts
List of Candidates
Opportunities &
Threats
Delivery,
Utilization &
Feedback
Intelligence
Processes
List of key
stakeholders
Influence &
relationship
Participation Scale
Review of Listing
Scenario Writing
Direction of
Change
Drivers Networks
Analysis
Impact –
Uncertainty
Analysis
MainProcess
List of Drivers of
Change
Preliminary ListingEnvironmental
Scanning
Need Analysis
Primary Research
Analysis
Review of Scenario
Products &
Services
Defining criteria
Attractiveness
Evaluation of
Strategy & Action
plan
Review of list of
Candidates
Data
Intelligence &
Horizon
Scanning
Stages
1 3 4 5 62
Drivers
Formulation
Stakeholders’
Mapping
Recommendation
Secondary Research

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Diagnosis

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• Scoping
• Weak signals
• Mega trends
• Drivers of change
• Plausible scenarios
• Future niche
• Future priority areas
• Strategies
horizon scanning
Source: myForesight® analytics

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myForesight® trend scanning
framework utilizes the STEEP
approach that is also known by a
number of different acronyms;
PEST, STEEP, STEEPV, PESTELV
& SEPTED but generally they all
follow a similar framework and
identify similar issues.
The analysis is very useful as it
offers a wide ranging framework
from which to identify main
drivers and build scenarios
looking at all perspectives
STEEPV analysis
SOCIAL
FORCES ECONOMIC
FORCES
POLITICAL
FORCES
ENVIRONMENT
FORCES
TECHNOLOGY
FORCES
VALUE
FORCES

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lenses

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diagnosis ecosystem
Political
Economic
Social
Technological
Environment
Legal
Value
External Factors
Trends, Issues & Challenges
Internal Factors
Trends, Issues & Challenges
Driver 1
Actor:
Champion, sponsors &
project team (overall
structure)
Participation & Target Groups:
Stakeholders (Government, Industry, Academia,
Associations, NGO, Clients, regulators etc.
Driver n
Purpose

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MEGA
TRENDS
impact
relativity
risk, threat &
opportunities
long term

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“Technology will have
ingrained itself into
every sphere of human
activity”
“by 2015, 1 trillion
devices will be
interconnected,
exchanging
information”
“Technology
intrusiveness, human
literally live in
technology”

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“Technology will
understand data they’re
processing”
“Machines will
increasingly be able to
work autonomously”
“Technology will be
replacing routine &
unsociable work ”

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“Technology will be
relating to humans in
human like ways”
“Humans will form
emotional attachments
to technology”

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“Accelerating rate of
technology convergence &
application”
“Development of new
and novel applications
& usage”

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Prognosis

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……is a story with plausible cause and effect links that connects a future condition with
the present, while illustrating key decisions, events, and consequences throughout the
narrative.
What is a Scenario? – Foresight Perspective
not predictions or forecasts
stories that describe how things might be in the future
based on an analysis of change drivers
simplify some of the apparent
complexity in the world

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Typical Scenarios
..is a statement about the plausible state of an observation at a certain point in the future
Present
Image of the Future
Scenario α
Directions of
Change, X
Directions of
Change, Y
Directions of
Change, Z
Scenario β
Scenario Ω

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Type of Scenarios
There are multiple type of scenarios… 2x2 …archetype… multi drivers
BEST CASE
WORST CASE
BUSINESS AS
USUAL
WILD CARD

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• Drivers are the key forces in the
macro-environment that underpin
important trends and issues.
• Some of these forces are largely
predetermined (e.g. often
demographics), whilst some are highly
uncertain (e.g. oil and gas prices).
• When constructing scenarios, it is very
useful to know what is inevitable and
necessary and what is unpredictable
and a matter of choice.
Understanding drivers of change

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The South African Mont Fleur project:
• Mont Fleur was intended to influence the future of South Africa
through the development of several scenarios about how things
might unfold over the coming decades.
• The project took place right in the middle of a complex period of
many kinds of negotiations about how to make the transition away
from apartheid.
• The Mont Fleur work was done by a team of leaders drawn from
organizations that ranged across the political map: community
activists, conservative politicians, ANC officials, trade unionists,
academics, establishment economists, top corporate executives.
Adam Kahane, Generon

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The 4 scenarios of Mont Fleur
• Ostrich
was a story of the white government believing that it could
avoid a negotiated settlement with the black majority,
burying its head in the sand, and thereby making make
matters worse in the end
• Lame Duck
told the story of a prolonged transition where the new
government is hobbled by compromises built into the
constitution and, because “it purports to respond to all but
satisfies none”, it doesn’t address the country’s problems
• Icarus
described a strong black majority government coming to
power on a wave of popular support and embarking on a
huge, unsustainable public spending spree that crashes the
economy
• Flight of the Flamingos
was a story about how the new government could avoid the
pitfalls of the first three scenarios and gradually rebuild a
successful economy

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Prescriptions

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from scenarios to strategies
Actions that are needed
whatever the scenario
(Imperatives)
Actions needed to reach
a preferred future outcome
(Preferences)
Recommendations
for future strategy
& action
Strategic
implications
Drivers of
change
Issues & trends
Scenarios
Involves assessing actions against capabilities and
competencies, identifying opportunities and
reviewing risks

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analysing the scenarios
• Once we have defined our scenarios, we need to ask:
 How might we know if this scenario is emerging?
 What would be leading indicators (sign posts)?
 What should we be monitoring?
• Undertake comparison of the different scenario
• Are there issues, strategies, etc. that apply across all or many of these?
• Usually the workshop will end with some examination/ prioritisation
of actions
“Strategy" is the art of determining how you'll "win" in business and life.

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Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Strategy
element 1
Strategy
element 2
Strategy
element n
testing the strategy
To test out the strategic responses that we just developed for our own scenarios, in other
groups’ scenarios. This will give us a sense of how robust (or not) our responses are.

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Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
• Identifying possible actions
through break-out groups (per
scenario) or via other approaches
– Who should do WHAT, WHEN,
with what targets & indicators
• Relating actions to scenarios –
How do various projects look in
the different scenario
• Prioritising & Selecting Activities –
Which to do now, later, keep on
back burner, how much resource
(or what kind) to invest etc.
• What does this mean for ongoing
planning and strategizing: intra-
and inter-organisation dimensions
translating scenarios

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Analyze the scenarios (α, β & Ω) and suggest potential opportunities and threats potentially
resulting from the scenarios
identifying future opportunities & threats /risks

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Each areas/strategy/items are ranked according to:-
identification & prioritization
Feasibility (Readiness)
• Maturity & acceptance, time horizon of
impact;
• Application potential & diffusion;
• Resources & infrastructure.
Attractiveness (Socio Economic)
• Economic & industrial impact;
• Competition;
• Social impact;
• Knowledge generation;

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prioritisation diagram
Likelihood to happen
Impact
Score of 4 or higher
Higher priority field with
strong attractiveness &
feasibility potential
Medium Score ( 3 to 4)
Field that could be selected after
more careful & detail cost benefit
analysis
Score under 2 points
Limited attractiveness &
feasibility potential
LimitedSubstantialSeriousVerySeriousCatastrophic
Highly
unlikely
Unlikely Possible Likely Highly likely

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key players in OTEC technology
35
18
37
27
34
18
6
6
6
6
6
8
4
5
3
5
5
5
5
Platform Mooring Pump Turbine Heat exchanger Cold Water Pipe
Patent distribution based on technology areas
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION, US THE ABELL FOUNDATION, INC., US
OTEC DEVELOPMENTS, US PRUEITT MELVIN L, US
United States Department of Energy,US
Top five (5) companies patents filed distribution based on
technology areas from 2009 to 2014 .
Lockheed Martin corporation and Abell Foundation INC. are
found to be the main contributors in OTEC research based on
patents filed in six technology areas.

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technology focus area
Technology Areas:
i. Improvement of existing platforms,
ii. Platform mooring
iii. Pumps
iv. Turbines
v. Heat exchanger
vi. Cold water pipes
15
8
28
21 22
7
15 14
50
30
27
5
39
28
49
39
33
11
26
8
31
27
23
11
24
17
39
35
32
13
18
9
25
13
16
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
platform
platform Mooring
pump
turbine
heat exchanger
cold water pipe
Number of patent registered (2009-2014) on OTEC
Technology;
Pumps, turbines and heat exchanger technologies are
the areas that most focus from 2009 to 2014

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bibliography analysis

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Foresight…
Mindset vs Method

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Politically correct &
sensitivity
Stakeholders engagement -
organisations vs. individuals
Schedule and timeline –
holidays, ad hoc meetings
Foresight vs. traditional
strategic management
planning
Adapting Foresight to non-
academic practice
Fast result, immature
analysis ?
Challenges in Foresight activities

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…based on experiences in implementing the case studies, there are several
critical components that would enhance effectiveness in transforming policy
planning into actions as follows:
• Intermediaries – there is a need for a strong intermediary role especially
involving cross-ministerial and multi-sectoral domains as well as capable
of performing strategic thinking on top of secretariat works.
• Align to the national agenda – there is a need to integrate and synergy
with the national agenda (big picture)
• Champions – there is a need to identify and get buy-in at the early stage
from relevant stakeholders which will involve actively in the
implementation stage
• Strategic Platforms – leverage and maximise the use of available means
such as strategic partnership, offsets program, national council, to name a
few.
Key Enablers – Foresight to Policy Making & Implementation

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the end
RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM
rushdi@might.org.my

Foresight General Concept & Methodology

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