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Woodbine
1
OPWA Right of Way Management Conference
Ajax, Ontario, November 13, 2018
Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW
Miss...
Woodbine
Flood Constraints in the ROW (August 19, 2005)
2
Woodbine
ROW Infrastructure Back-up (July 16, 2017)
3
The Solution (After)
• 30 year program
• $234 M cost
4
The Solution (During)
5
It’s Even Crowded for Staging
6
Thinking Fast and Slow
• Daniel Kahneman’s best-selling
book summarizes decades of
research into thinking – how we
frame a...
Thinking Fast and Slow
• Fast
• Errors due to
heuristic
biases, or
“short-cuts” in
problem
solving.
8
• Slow
• Needed for
...
Complex, Constrained, Crowded
9
BIOSWALE
BIKELANE
• Capacity upgrades up to
400% required to meet
today’s 100 year level or
service.
Existing 900 mm dia. (2 yr)
New 1800 mm...
Media and “Insurance Facts” on Bigger Storms
11
• Many statements about more extreme rainfall
that would make sewers bigge...
Media and “Insurance Facts” on Bigger Storms
12
• Main author from the University
of Western, directed me to the
Institute...
The real data … on YouTube
13
Just a Concept … a “Bell Curve” shift … no data
14www.cityfloodmap.com
?
Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall – Lower Intensities
Insurance Bureau
of Canada “Telling
the Weather Story”
Increase ?...
What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design
Conceptual shift in
a SHORT duration
intensity would
increase sewer
sizes
16
Concep...
www.cityfloodmap.com
Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too
• Stations with
45+ years of
record and
recent data.
•...
Few statistically significant increases in Canada
• 5-minute rainfall
maxima have
significant
increases at only
2.7% of cl...
19http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/12/canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climate.htmlhttp://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/12/canadi...
Rain Intensity Trends – Lower in Southern Ontario
• Lower observed
annual maximums
cause IDF values to
decrease.
• Toronto...
Data Facts Comes Out in Media & Marketing
• Insurance ‘facts’ & other
infographics:
21
• Data facts from ECCC:
– “Lack of ...
• Capacity upgrades up to
400% required to meet
today’s 100 year level or
service. Its big enough and
has a safety fact be...
Only
Milli Vanilli
“Blame It
On The
Rain”
That’s Crazy Talk Rob ! Flood Damages Are Up !!!
24
Insurance Industry “Fact”:
• “Water Damage” is key
driver to growing costs
after 2008
http://http://assets.ibc.ca/Document...
Not long ago, in many cities
not far away ….
The Floods Awaken - A New Hope for
Cost-Effective Investment in
Flood Management Infrastructure
Have the floods “awakened” ?
Look at some data we must
$400 M / yr
> $1 B / yr
CatIQ
Data
“various company surveys” ?
Flood, water, storm perils …
2013 is a rare
large event
2013 $40k* loss per
home not ‘average’
Water damage % is decreasing
34.0 % of Total Losses
31.7%
“Fear is the path to the dark side.”
What’s Going On? …..Thinking Fast
35
"People are not accustomed to thinking hard,
and are often content to trust a plausib...
Thinking Fast vs. Thinking Slow
36
• Weather events that happened
every 40 years happening every
6 years.
• Water damage a...
What Is Causing More Flooding? Urbanization
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/08/land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-risk.ht...
What Is Causing More Flooding? Urbanization
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/08/land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-risk.ht...
What Is Causing More Flooding? Urbanization
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/08/land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-risk.ht...
What Is Causing More Flooding? Urbanization
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/08/land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-risk.ht...
What Else Is Causing More Flooding? Deeper Finished Basements.
https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/07/basement-underpinning-...
But we have unprecedented flood events, Rob!
42
Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented
http://http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/12/toronto-go-train-flood-avoidab...
2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented?
44
2017 1973
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2017/09/toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lake.html
74
74.2
74.4
74.6
74.8
75
75.2
75.4
75.6
7...
We have always had flooding
Engineers don’t let that stop them in
in their quests … 46
What about adding green infrastructure
like bioswales into the right of way?
47
48
Bioswales may not look so nice in practice …
49
Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
50
But creek baseflows have been going up for decades ?!?
Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
Baseflows
Increasing for
50 ye...
51
Conservation Authority Says
“Common Thought” Is Inaccurate
• “At all but two gauging stations, a positive
or upward tre...
52
“Excessive costs alone shall
not be considered an
acceptable constraint”
Green infrastructure saves money ?
Then Why Sa...
53
Green infrastructure saves money ? .. in rural Arkansas
http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2017/09/toronto-island-flooding-201...
54
What about here in the GTA ?
55
City of Toronto. Fairford and Coxwell.
http://https://sustainabletechnologies.ca/app/uploads/2017/08/Fairford-Parkette-...
56
Ontario Costs – Over $500,000 per Hectare (same as US)
Cost for LID
higher than
traditional
centralized
technol-
ogies
...
Flood Control Program - Markham
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards Downspout
Prgm.
Backwater
Valve Pgm.
San.Sewer
Upgrades
...
Flood Control Program - Markham
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards Downspout
Prgm.
Backwater
Valve Pgm.
San.Sewer
Upgrades
...
Conclusions
• Crowded, the Right of Way it is
• To Identify necessary infrastructure
improvements critical “Thinking Slow”...
Questions ?
Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
rmuir@markham.ca
Blog: www.CityFloodMap.com
Podcast: Open During Construction ...
Woodbine
61
OPWA Right of Way Management Conference
Ajax, Ontario, November 13, 2018
Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW
Mis...
Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW, Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room for Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Envi...
Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW, Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room for Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Envi...
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Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW, Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room for Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Environment

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OPWA Right of Way Management Conference, Ajax, Ontario, November 13, 2018
Keynote Address by Robert Muir, Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham

The presentation "Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW, Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room for Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Environment" explores strategic infrastructure investment planning and cost-effective asset management for public assets. The cost efficiency assessment of various mitigation measures is explored using benefit cost analysis in the context of Markham's comprehensive city-wide Flood Control Program. The program includes many projects that demonstrate a high return on investment (ROI) for flood risk reduction, making them eligible for Infrastructure Canada's Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund (DMAF) grant funding.

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Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW, Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room for Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Environment

  1. 1. Woodbine 1 OPWA Right of Way Management Conference Ajax, Ontario, November 13, 2018 Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room for Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Environment Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng. Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
  2. 2. Woodbine Flood Constraints in the ROW (August 19, 2005) 2
  3. 3. Woodbine ROW Infrastructure Back-up (July 16, 2017) 3
  4. 4. The Solution (After) • 30 year program • $234 M cost 4
  5. 5. The Solution (During) 5
  6. 6. It’s Even Crowded for Staging 6
  7. 7. Thinking Fast and Slow • Daniel Kahneman’s best-selling book summarizes decades of research into thinking – how we frame and solve problems, and the heuristic biases can cloud effective thinking. 7
  8. 8. Thinking Fast and Slow • Fast • Errors due to heuristic biases, or “short-cuts” in problem solving. 8 • Slow • Needed for today’s complex, constrained, and conflicted design challenges.
  9. 9. Complex, Constrained, Crowded 9 BIOSWALE BIKELANE
  10. 10. • Capacity upgrades up to 400% required to meet today’s 100 year level or service. Existing 900 mm dia. (2 yr) New 1800 mm dia. (100 yr) Why Are New Sewers Bigger ? Are They Big Enough? But what about Climate Change? Its not big enough !
  11. 11. Media and “Insurance Facts” on Bigger Storms 11 • Many statements about more extreme rainfall that would make sewers bigger come from: i) the insurance industry, and ii) some conservation authorities. • A 2012 report called “Telling the Weather Story” for the Insurance Bureau of Canada stated: “Weather events that used to happen every 40 years are now happening once every 6 years in some regions in the country.”
  12. 12. Media and “Insurance Facts” on Bigger Storms 12 • Main author from the University of Western, directed me to the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR) for the data. • ICLR director shared future climate predictions research papers, and asked for patience to find the Engineering Climate Dataset data referenced in the report (past data). • Months went by …
  13. 13. The real data … on YouTube 13
  14. 14. Just a Concept … a “Bell Curve” shift … no data 14www.cityfloodmap.com ?
  15. 15. Real Data Trends on Extreme Rainfall – Lower Intensities Insurance Bureau of Canada “Telling the Weather Story” Increase ? (but no data) Environment Canada Data Maximum Rain Decreasing (statistically significant over 6 to 24 hrs) 15
  16. 16. What it Means to Sewer and Pond Design Conceptual shift in a SHORT duration intensity would increase sewer sizes 16 Conceptual shift in a LONG duration intensity would increase pond & storage volumes
  17. 17. www.cityfloodmap.com Less Extreme Rain at Many Ontario Stations Too • Stations with 45+ years of record and recent data. • More rain decreases than rain increases. • S. Ont. twice as many significant decreases. 17http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/01/climate-change-ontario-short-duration.html Significant Decr. Decrease Increase Significant Incr. Source: Environment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftp://ftp.tor.ec.gc.ca/Pub/Engineering_Climate_Dataset/IDF/ Idf_v2-3_2014_12_21_trends.txt in IDF_Additional_Additionnel_v2.30.zip
  18. 18. Few statistically significant increases in Canada • 5-minute rainfall maxima have significant increases at only 2.7% of climate stations. • 93% of trends are insignificant or ‘no data’. • A whole lotta nothin’ goin’ on 18 Significantly Down 3% Significantly Up 4%2.7%
  19. 19. 19http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/12/canadian-extreme-rainfall-map-climate.htmlhttp://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/12/canadian-extreme-rainfall-summary-by.html
  20. 20. Rain Intensity Trends – Lower in Southern Ontario • Lower observed annual maximums cause IDF values to decrease. • Toronto City “Bloor Street” trends lower for all durations & all return periods. • Design standard ‘old’ IDF is conservative. http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/01/toronto-climate-change-extreme-rainfall.html www.cityfloodmap.com Source: Environment Canada Engineering Climate Dataset ftp://ftp.tor.ec.gc.ca/Pub/Engineering_Climate_Dataset/IDF/ Up to 2007 per Dataset v2.3, to 2003 per Dataset v1, to 1990 per hardcopy records 20 Toronto IDF Trends (5 Min) ID 6158355 (Toronto City) Return Period (Years) Intensity (mm/hr) Change 1990 2007 1990 - 2007 2 113.9 109.2 -4.1% 10 189.6 180.1 -5.0% 25 227.7 215.8 -5.2% 100 284 268.5 -5.5%
  21. 21. Data Facts Comes Out in Media & Marketing • Insurance ‘facts’ & other infographics: 21 • Data facts from ECCC: – “Lack of a detectable trend signal” (Atmosphere-Ocean, 2014) – Advertising Standards Canada complaint resolutions 2015-2018 (no rain shift data) – “No significant change in rainfall events over several decades” (CBC letter, 2015) – “ECCC studies have not shown evidence to support statement” (Cdn Underwriter, 2016) – “If this is used as the basis for statements about actual changes in extreme rainfall in Canada, then I would have concerns.” (personal communication ECCC, 2018) http://https://www.slideshare.net/RobertMuir3/storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
  22. 22. • Capacity upgrades up to 400% required to meet today’s 100 year level or service. Its big enough and has a safety fact because intensities have been decreasing. Existing 900 mm dia. (2 yr) New 1800 mm dia. (100 yr) Are Sewers Big Enough? YES ! But what about Climate Change? Its not big enough !
  23. 23. Only Milli Vanilli “Blame It On The Rain”
  24. 24. That’s Crazy Talk Rob ! Flood Damages Are Up !!! 24
  25. 25. Insurance Industry “Fact”: • “Water Damage” is key driver to growing costs after 2008 http://http://assets.ibc.ca/Documents/Resources/IBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018.pdf
  26. 26. Not long ago, in many cities not far away ….
  27. 27. The Floods Awaken - A New Hope for Cost-Effective Investment in Flood Management Infrastructure
  28. 28. Have the floods “awakened” ?
  29. 29. Look at some data we must $400 M / yr > $1 B / yr CatIQ Data “various company surveys” ?
  30. 30. Flood, water, storm perils … 2013 is a rare large event 2013 $40k* loss per home not ‘average’
  31. 31. Water damage % is decreasing 34.0 % of Total Losses 31.7%
  32. 32. “Fear is the path to the dark side.”
  33. 33. What’s Going On? …..Thinking Fast 35 "People are not accustomed to thinking hard, and are often content to trust a plausible judgment that comes to mind." Daniel Kahneman, American Economic Review 93 (5) December 2003, p. 1450
  34. 34. Thinking Fast vs. Thinking Slow 36 • Weather events that happened every 40 years happening every 6 years. • Water damage a key driver to increasing insured losses. • New normal. • Data shows lack of detectable trend signal in rainfall intensities. • Data shows water damage only 1/3 of losses and is a decreasing percentage. • Same old extremes.
  35. 35. What Is Causing More Flooding? Urbanization http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/08/land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-risk.html 37
  36. 36. What Is Causing More Flooding? Urbanization http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/08/land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-risk.html 38
  37. 37. What Is Causing More Flooding? Urbanization http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/08/land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-risk.html 39
  38. 38. What Is Causing More Flooding? Urbanization http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/08/land-use-change-drives-urban-flood-risk.html 40
  39. 39. What Else Is Causing More Flooding? Deeper Finished Basements. https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/07/basement-underpinning-and-sewer-back-up.html 41
  40. 40. But we have unprecedented flood events, Rob! 42
  41. 41. Metrolinx said this 2013 flood was unprecedented http://http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/12/toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8.html 43
  42. 42. 2017 Lake Ontario Levels Unprecedented? 44 2017 1973
  43. 43. http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2017/09/toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lake.html 74 74.2 74.4 74.6 74.8 75 75.2 75.4 75.6 75.8 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 MonthlyLevel(m) Lake Ontario Historical May - August Levels May Average August Average Source: 1918-2016 http://www.tides.gc.ca/C&A/network_means-eng.html 2017 http://tides-marees.gc.ca/C&A/pdf/Bulletin1708.pdf May 5 cm above record August not a record 45
  44. 44. We have always had flooding Engineers don’t let that stop them in in their quests … 46
  45. 45. What about adding green infrastructure like bioswales into the right of way? 47
  46. 46. 48 Bioswales may not look so nice in practice …
  47. 47. 49 Green infrastructure needed to restore water balance
  48. 48. 50 But creek baseflows have been going up for decades ?!? Baseflows Increasing for 50 years Baseflows Increasing for 50 years
  49. 49. 51 Conservation Authority Says “Common Thought” Is Inaccurate • “At all but two gauging stations, a positive or upward trend was observed. These upward trends vary depending on the watershed, ranging from 2% in the Don and Etobicoke watersheds and up to 45% in the Rouge. These overall increases to baseflow volumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflow” http://www.ctcswp.ca/wp- content/uploads/2015/07/RPT_20150723_Feb2015_TRSPA_PUAR_Chap3_HiRe z.pdf
  50. 50. 52 “Excessive costs alone shall not be considered an acceptable constraint” Green infrastructure saves money ? Then Why Say That?
  51. 51. 53 Green infrastructure saves money ? .. in rural Arkansas http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2017/09/toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lake.html No curbs and sewers “save money” Is this a typical setting in Ontario? Does it meet Places to Grow densities?
  52. 52. 54 What about here in the GTA ?
  53. 53. 55 City of Toronto. Fairford and Coxwell. http://https://sustainabletechnologies.ca/app/uploads/2017/08/Fairford-Parkette-Case-Study_2017.pdf Ontario and US Project Costs: https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/07/green-infrastructure-capital-and.html
  54. 54. 56 Ontario Costs – Over $500,000 per Hectare (same as US) Cost for LID higher than traditional centralized technol- ogies Grey / Central Green / Distributed
  55. 55. Flood Control Program - Markham 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 Standards Downspout Prgm. Backwater Valve Pgm. San.Sewer Upgrades Stm. Sewer Upgrades Green Infr. Retrofit Cost($M) < $0.1 M
  56. 56. Flood Control Program - Markham 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 Standards Downspout Prgm. Backwater Valve Pgm. San.Sewer Upgrades Stm. Sewer Upgrades Green Infr. Retrofit < $0.1 M Grey Infrastructure Benefit / Cost = 2.0 Insured = 5.5 Total Green Infrastructure Benefit / Cost = 0.1 Insured = 0.3 Total Best Practices No Regrets Policies & Programs High ROI Approved Program $ 263 M $2.19 B for 25% of city
  57. 57. Conclusions • Crowded, the Right of Way it is • To Identify necessary infrastructure improvements critical “Thinking Slow”, we must do • On your Mission Possible Right of Way Strategy, may the force be with you • The path to the dark side, “Thinking Fast” it is
  58. 58. Questions ? Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng. rmuir@markham.ca Blog: www.CityFloodMap.com Podcast: Open During Construction on iTunes Twitter: @RobertMuir_PEng Web: www.markham.ca OPWA Right of Way Management Conference Ajax, Ontario, November 13, 2018
  59. 59. Woodbine 61 OPWA Right of Way Management Conference Ajax, Ontario, November 13, 2018 Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room for Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Environment Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng. Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham

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