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Extreme Weather Resiliency and Climate Adaptation Through Strategic Asset Management & Infrastructure Investments

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Natural Environment Climate Change Summit, Extreme Weather Resiliency and Climate Adaptation Through Strategic Asset Management & Infrastructure Investments, Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham, March 7, 2019, Ajax, Ontario

The presentation explores the drivers for cost efficiency assessment infrastructure investments including those to mitigate flooding due to extreme weather and future climate change impacts on high intensity rainfall that contributes to urban flooding. Flood risk factors including severe rainfall trends are explored as well as hydrologic stresses due to urbanization and design standard evolution. Measures to reduce flooding in the City of Markham are explored using benefit cost analysis in the context of its comprehensive city-wide Flood Control Program. The program includes many projects that demonstrate a high return on investment (ROI) for flood risk reduction, making them eligible for Infrastructure Canada's Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund (DMAF) grant funding. An evaluation of risk management strategies is presented that includes traditional grey infrastructure engineering solutions such as sewer capacity upgrades, and emerging green infrastructure strategies including engineered and enhanced assets (e.g., bioswales, rain gardens, infiltration trenches, GSI). The strategies take a holistic, system-wide approach to evaluating benefits and lifecycle costs, including initial capital on on-going operation and maintenance costs. The analysis will be presented a t the annual Water Environment Association of Ontario conference in 2019 in Toronto, Ontario. A link to the paper material is presented here: https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/03/an-economic-analysis-of-green-v-grey.html

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Extreme Weather Resiliency and Climate Adaptation Through Strategic Asset Management & Infrastructure Investments

  1. 1. Durham Region's Natural Environment Climate Change Summit Extreme Weather Resiliency and Climate Adaptation Through Strategic Asset Management & Infrastructure Investments Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng. Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham March 7, 2019 - Ajax, Ontario 1
  2. 2. OUTLINE 1) Regulations on Resiliency 2) Upgrading Historical Service vs. Future Adaptation 3) Rainfall Risk Factors 4) Strategic Flood Resiliency – Where to Act in Durham 5) Policies, Programs and Projects for Cost-Effective Resiliency 6) Markham Flood Control Program Review – Grey and Green Infrastructure Strategies 2
  3. 3. Provincial Policy Statement (2014): “Infrastructure … shall be provided in a coordinated, efficient and cost-effective manner that considers impacts from climate change ….” Infrastructure for Jobs and Prosperity Act (2015): “Infrastructure planning and investment should minimize the impact of infrastructure on the environment … should be designed to be resilient to effects of climate change.” Environmental Assessments (2017): “… proponents to consider measures to adapt to climate change: How vulnerable might a project be to a changing climate? Bill 139 (2017) : “OP shall contain policies that identify goals, objectives and actions to … provide for adaptation to a changing climate, including through increasing resiliency.” Ontario Drivers for Assessing Climate Change Risks 3Provincial Policy Statement 2014 Infr. for Jobs and Prosperity Bill 139EAs and Class EAs
  4. 4. Ontario Drivers for Assessing Climate Change Risks 4 O. Reg. 588/17: ASSET MANAGEMENT PLANNING FOR MUNICIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE (July 1, 2019) “first strategic asset management policy” shall include “the municipality’s commitment to consider, as part of its asset management planning” including “the actions that may be required to address the vulnerabilities that may be caused by climate change”. (July 1, 2024) “Every asset management plan must include the proposed levels of service for core stormwater management assets: 1. Percentage of properties resilient to a 100-year storm. 2. Percentage of stormwater management system resilient to a 5-year storm. O.Reg. 588/17
  5. 5. We have always had flooding And historical level of service ‘gaps’ 5
  6. 6. … longstanding ‘gaps’ are challenging. 6
  7. 7. Repeated operational problems? Should not be confused with climate change riskshttp://http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/12/toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8.html 7
  8. 8. Difference Between Increasing Historical Levels of Service & Future Climate Change Adaptation ? 8 • Historical upgrades first = very extensive capacity upgrades to meet today’s standards. • Next climate adaptation requires +20% more capacity. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 15Min.RainDesignIntensity(mm/hr) Pre-1960 Post-1980 Future Climate (?) CC Adaptation Design Standard Upgrades in Old Areas Yesterday 2-Year Today 100-Year Tomorrow 100-Year
  9. 9. WastewaterStrategically Increase Flood Resiliency for Today’s Extremes in “Old Areas”  Risks increase in old areas with future climate  New subdivisions not impacted - today’s design safety factors provide future resiliency Old pre-1980 subdivisions Flood Prone Sanitary Sewer Today’s 100- Year Storm Flood Prone Sanitary Sewer Future Storm (30% Larger) 9Steeles Ave. E Hwy 407
  10. 10. WastewaterRainfall Risk Factors – No Change in Design Intensities 10 • Since 1990, 0.2% drop in rain design intensities for long term stations (link). • Some RCM’s suggest lower extreme rain in 2050 (link). • Still need future safety factors.
  11. 11. WastewaterWhere Should Durham Consider Added Flood Resiliency ? 11 • Areas with high historical growth and intensification before modern storm drainage and sanitary sewer standards have been implemented. Where? • Construction Era, Infrastructure Standards and Extreme Rainfall Flood Resiliency and Risk https://bit.ly/2TTE627 How? • Reducing Flood Risk from Flood Plain to Floor Drain. Developing a Canadian Standard for Design Standard Adaptation in Existing Communities https://bit.ly/2GMINqR
  12. 12. WastewaterWhere Should Durham Consider Added Flood Resiliency ? 12 Urban Areas Circa 2000
  13. 13. WastewaterWhere Should Durham Consider Added Flood Resiliency ? 13 Urban Areas Circa 1966
  14. 14. 14 Insurance Claims and Flood Reports Concentrated in Historical High Risk Areas Overland Flow Paths
  15. 15. Cost- Effective Policies, Programs & Capital Works Projects 15 • Policies / Design Standards (prevention): – Land use planning / floodplain mgmt. – Engineering standards • Programs (low cost remediation) – Sanitary downspout disconnection – Plumbing protection / backwater valves • Capital Works Projects (high cost remediation) – Sewer capacity upgrades (grey) – Storage facilities (grey) – Low impact development (green ?) 60 Times Reduction in Flood Density Double Sanitary Capacity with Lower Storm Flows Is it cost effective ? Do Benefits exceed Costs (ROI) ?
  16. 16. Green Infrastructure – Recent Local Tender Costs https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/05/are-lids-financially-sustainable-in.html 16 Approximately $600,000 per hectare in capital cost. Retrofitting Ontario’s 852,000 urban hectares would cost about half a trillion dollars. US costs of $860,000 per impervious hectare give cost of $360 billion. Ajax Rain Gardens $350,000 to service 0.14 hectares Philadelphia - projects
  17. 17. 1 10 100 1000 10000 Downspout Program. Backwater Valve Pgm. Sanitary Upgrades Storm Upgrades Green Infr. Retrofit Option Markham Flood Control Program Activities and Costs Cost($M) $3 M $1300/ha $27 M $11,000/ha $253 M $120,000/ha $1.7 B $726,000/ha
  18. 18. 1 10 100 1000 10000 Downspout Program. Backwater Valve Pgm. Sanitary Upgrades Storm Upgrades Green Infr. Retrofit Option 50 Shades of Grey to Green Strategies Cost($M) Strategy A (grey) Benefit / Cost = 2.52 $ 2.83 M / yr Strategy D (90% grey + 10% green) Benefit / Cost = 0.91 $8.92 M / yr WEAO paper : https://bit.ly/2VEIMtb
  19. 19. Conclusions • New regulations, guidelines require design & actions to adapt to future climate: • Resiliency gaps are in historical service areas under existing weather stresses. • Improving existing infrastructure levels of service (first step) has a climate adaptation co-benefit. • Standards, programs and capital works increase resiliency with varying degrees of cost-effectiveness: • Today’s standards & low cost programs offer effective & timely flood risk reduction. • Grey & green infrastructure require assessment of cost effectiveness for flood remediation. Recent studies have gaps: see Storm Warts. • Markham’s Flood Control Program has a favourable benefit/cost ratio considering flood control benefits and full lifecycle cost accounting: • Alternative strategies show lower cost effectiveness. See WEAO 2019 Paper. • Upcoming National Research Council guidelines will help guide robust analysis. 19
  20. 20. Thank You Questions ? More Rob : Blog: www.CityFloodMap.com Podcast: Open During Construction on iTunes Twitter: @RobertMuir_PEng More City of Markham : Web: www.markham.ca Twitter: @CityofMarkham 20
  21. 21. Resources On Flood Risk Factors & Resiliency 21 • Observed rain intensities decreasing in S. Ontario (Environment Canada data): – https://www.chijournal.org/C449 – http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/07/decrease-in-southern-ontario-design.html • Design rain intensities not increasing (engineering studies): – https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/03/extreme-rainfall-and-climate-change-in.html • Predicted lower rainfall intensities in Ontario: – http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/04/climate-models-predict-decreasing.html • Urbanization affects flood risk: – https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/08/urbanization-and-runoff-explain.html • Historical design standards affect flood risk: – https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/03/construction-era-infrastructure.html • Operational risk factors vs climate change risks (GO Train): – https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/12/toronto-go-train-flood-avoidable-july-8.html • Lake Ontario levels in 2017 barely above historical extremes: – https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2017/09/toronto-island-flooding-2017-were-lake.html • Green infrastructure lifecycle costs: – https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/07/green-infrastructure-capital-and.html • Grey and green infrastructure strategies for flood control, erosion mitigation and water quality improvement: – https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/02/an-economic-analysis-of-green-v-grey.html

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