Disentangling Impacts of Climate & Land Use Change on Quantity & Quality of River Flows in Southern Ontario Trevor Dickinson Ramesh Rudra University of Guelph
Climate change has lowered spring flood risks in Ontario rural watersheds due to higher temperatures, lower snowpack and lower spring runoff volumes. There have been no changes in precipitation affecting runoff volumes, and observed increases in summer runoff are due to urbanization, not climate change effects. Dr. Dickinson and Dr Rudra rightly describe the need for 'disentangling', given the prevalent approach of ignoring hydrologic changes in watersheds and incorrectly linking flood events on climate change and extreme rainfall and precipitation changes that have not been observed in local and regional data.
These findings on annual and seasonal patterns complement work by Environment and Climate Change Canada on short duration rainfall that shows no detectable trend in rainfall intensities in the Engineering Climate Datasets contrary to insurance industry statements:
https://www.slideshare.net/RobertMuir3/storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
Cost Effectiveness of LID ImplementationRobert Muir
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Disentangling Impacts of Climate & Land Use Change on Quantity & Quality of River Flows in Southern Ontario Trevor Dickinson Ramesh Rudra University of Guelph
1. Disentangling Impacts
of Climate & Land Use Changes
on the Quantity & Quality of River Flows
in Southern Ontario
by
Trevor Dickinson & Ramesh Rudra,
Water Resources Engineering
University of Guelph
2. Acknowledgements
Agencies
NSERC, OMAF & Environment Canada
Personnel
Barry Smith - Retired Program Manager, Water
Survey of Canada
Golmar Golmohammadi – Post Doctoral Research
Fellow
Arezoo Amili – Former Graduate Student
Akul Bhatt – Undergraduate Student Assistant
4. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
1916-1925
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
2004-2013
Average Monthly Flow Hydrographs
For Rural Watersheds like the Moira River at Foxboro:
winter flows have increased, spring flows have decreased,
& summer flows have remained unchanged.
5. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
2004-2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
1916-19251963-1972
Average Monthly Flow Hydrographs
For a highly Urbanized Watershed like the Don River at Todmorden:
winter flows have increased, spring flows have decreased,
& summer flows have greatly increased.
7. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
AverageAnnualPrecipitation(mm)
Nith at New Hamburg Grand at Brantford Cedar Creek at Woodstock
Moira near Foxboro Linear (Nith at New Hamburg) Linear (Grand at Brantford)
Linear (Cedar Creek at Woodstock) Linear (Cedar Creek at Woodstock) Linear (Moira near Foxboro)
8. What’s Going On?!
Possible causes of changes in the river
flows include:
- Changes in Climate, and/or
- Changes in Land Use
i.e. Urban Development
14. Rates of Increase in Temperatures
Celsius degrees per 100 years
Extreme Daily Minimum - 3.5 to 4.0
Mean Daily Minimum - 2.0
Mean Daily - 1.5
Mean Daily Maximum - 0.5
Extreme Daily Maximum - 0 to – 0.5
15. So …
Temperatures have been increasing
somewhat steadily in Ontario,
- perhaps for up to and at least 150 years!
Winter temperatures have been rising at the
greatest rate, suggesting that winter
hydrology may have been impacted more
than summer hydrology.
Temperature Trends
17. Frost-Free Days
020040060080010001200
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
NumberofFrost-FreeDaysperWinter
Winter Mean Daily Minimum Temperature (°C)
Number of Frost-Free Days versus Mean Daily Minimum
Temperature per Winter for 7 Weather Stations
WMDMT
y = 115.67exp(0.1729x)
R² = 0.9496
+ 15 days in
60 years
+ 5 days in 60
years
+ 1 day in 60
years
18. Frost-Free Days
As winter mean daily minimum temperatures
have been rising steadily, frost-free days have
been increasing exponentially.
Might snowmelt, which is related to degree-days,
also have been increasing exponentially?
19. There Has Been a Shift
in Winter Precipitation
from Snowfall to Rainfall
31. Rural Streamflows
So …
for Ontario Rural Watersheds,
changes in winter climate have:
- increased winter streamflows
and
- decreased spring runoff/freshettes.
32. Water Quality Impacts
What about Water Quality Impacts
Are we now seeing more frequent and greater:
- Field & Streambank Erosion,
- Stream Sediment Loads, and
- Nutrient Loads.
in rural watersheds during the winter?
Have these loads become smaller and less
frequent during spring snowmelt events?
34. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow 2004-2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow 1916-19251963-1972
Average Monthly Flow Hydrographs
For a highly urbanized basin like the Don River, winter flows
have increased & spring flows have decreased likely as a
result of both Climate Change & Urban Development.
In addition, the summer flows have increased significantly in
volume …
36. 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
April May June July August September October
Significant Urbanization (50%)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
April May June July August September October
Initial Urbanization
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
April May June July August September October
Before Urbanization
Runoff Coefficients
Meaneventrunoffcoefficient
37. Streamflow Volumes
So …
in Ontario urban watersheds:
- urban development has augmented the winter
and spring climate change impacts; and
- summer flow volumes have increased
dramatically, in volume and frequency, these
impacts being completely due to urban
development.
38. Impacts of Urbanization on
River Water Quality
Are we seeing more frequent flushes and greater
volumes of:
- streambank erosion
- suspended sediment loads
- Chlorides and other pollutants
- sewage bypasses
???
39. Conclusions
River flows have changed in Southern Ontario:
- in winter and spring, primarily due to climate
change; and
- during the summer, primarily due to urban
development.
40. Questions
Water Management Questions
What do we do about the changes in river flows
- in urbanized and urbanizing watersheds?
How have these changes modified water quality,
and what do we do in that regard?
42. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
1916-1925
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
2004-2013
Monthly Average Flow Hydrograph
Moira River at Foxboro
43. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
2004-2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Flow
1916-19251963-1972
Monthly Average Flow Hydrograph
Don River at Todmorden