China dairy market review & outlook 2008-2009 proposal

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China dairy market review & outlook 2008-2009 proposal
Published on February 2009

Report Summary

Research Background
There are significant changes in global dairy market in 2008. Due to rising cost and tight supply global dairy price hit a new high in
2007, which greatly influenced dairy policies in many countries, so supply and demand relationship got dramatically changes among
those countries, including enhancing domestic production, reducing exports, stimulating dairy supply. In addition, the economic
depression has spread around the world, causing decreasing resident income and consumption as well as demand for dairy products.
Raw milk and dairy product prices are continuously dropping, including skim and whole milk powder, whey and cheese.

In 2008 china dairy industry should be separated two stages by Melamine Scandal. Before that it still grows at a fast rate and State
Stat. Dept. shows that in the first eight months of this year, the yield of liquid and solid milk products are 10,178kt and 2,495kt, up by
12.07% and 7.34% than the same period of last year respectively; after the scandal in both Sept and October they dropped by 18.7%,
32.5% and 15.58%, 32.39% respectively. Resident demand for dairy products is seriously affected and the production of Yili and
Mengniu dropped with 90%. Sanlu group is even closed and sold for auction. The whole dairy chain is making great losses after
Melamine Scandal and dairy export is also facing unprecedented crisis.

In order to regulate china dairy market, in the first half year of 2008 the Government issued Requirements on Dairy Processing
Permits and Dairy Industry Policies in March and May. After the Melamine Scandal, the Government issued Notification on Enhancing
and Supervising Dairy Quility Regulation and Proposals on Dairy Industry Resumption in October and November and Food Safety Act
will be implemented soon to revise emerged problems related to the scandal. All these show that the Government is enhancing laws
and regulations in dairy industry and dairy consumers are paying more attention on quality. Domestic dairy producers are changing
strategy to reply new macro-environment. It is a good chance for international dairy enterprises to invest in China.

This report analyzes dairy production, consumption, market price, basic situation of import and export, market competition, relevant
hot topics, policy direction and impact, development of main dairy processing and packaging enterprises in China and the
development of the international dairy industry in 2007, there is also a forecast for the development trend of the Chinese dairy
industry in 2008. This report gives an integrated analysis on the effects of Melamine Scandal.

This report is a joint product of the experts of the Dairy Department, Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants Ltd.. These senior dairy
analysts also make advice for relevant departments and associations, and keep a beneficial relationship with major dairy enterprises,
relevant industry enterprises, which provide precious information and data for this report, assuring the veracity, authority and forward
looking. This is a rare report which shall be of great value for dairy investment companies, producers, material suppliers, equipment
suppliers and research institutes both at home and abroad to understand the development trend of the dairy industry, to make
decisions on the positioning of the enterprise and to formulate development strategies.

Table of Content

Table of Contents
CHAPTER ONE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF DAIRY INDUSTRY IN CHINA IN 2008

China dairy market review & outlook 2008-2009 proposal Page 1/11


1.1 Raw Milk Production
1.1.1 Slowing Down of Growth of Dairy Cattle Inventory, Lowest Level since 2000
1.1.2 Negative Growth of Production of All Sorts of Milk and Cow Milk since 2000
1.2 Dairy Processing
1.2.1 Growth of Liquid Milk Production, Lowest Level since 2000
1.2.2 Slowing Down of Output of Solid Dairy Products
1.3 Dairy Products Trade
1.3.1 Renewed Growth of Dairy Import
1.3.2 Large Slide of Export of Dairy Products
1.4 Dairy Products Consumption
1.4.1 First Slide of Per Capita Possession Volume of Milk
1.4.2 Large Slide of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents
1.5 Dairy Product Prices
1.6 Dairy Industry Developments
1.7 Restructuring of Dairy Industry
1.8 Policy on Dairy Industry
CHAPTER TWO POLICY ENVIRONMENT OF DAIRY INDUSTRY IN CHINA, 2008
2.1 Overall Situation of Relevant Policies
2.2 Notification on Enhancing and Supervising Raw Milk Makret Regulation
2.2.1 Background
2.2.2 Major Contents
2.2.3 Effects on the Market
2.3 Requirements on Dairy Processing Permits
2.3.1 Background
2.3.3 Impacts on China Dairy Industry Development
2.4 Dairy Industry Policies
2.4.1 Background
2.4.3 Impacts on Domestic Dairy Industry
2.5 Food Safty Act. And its Revisement
2.5.1 Background
2.5.3 Impacts on Domestic Dairy Industry
CHAPTER THREE EFFECTS OF MELAMINE SCANDAL ON DOMESTIC DAIRY MARKET
3.1 Overview of Melamine Scandal
3.2 Effects on Raw Milk Production
3.3 Effects on Dairy Processing
3.4 Effects on Dairy Consumption
3.5 Effects on Dairy Trade
3.6 Effects on Industry Competition
3.7 Effects on Industry Profit
3.8 Effects on Industry Policies
CHAPTER FOUR ANALYSIS OF DAIRY PRODUCTION IN CHINA IN 2008
4.1 Raw Milk Production
4.1.1 General Situation
4.1.2 Dairy Cattle Inventory
4.1.3 Milk Output
4.1.4 Regional Layout of Raw Milk Production
4.1.5 Raw Milk Procurement Prices



4.2 Dairy Processing
4.2.1 Liquid Milk
4.2.1.1 UHT Milkt
4.2.1.2 Pasteurized Milk
4.2.1.3Yogurt
4.2.2 Solid Dairy Products
4.2.2.1Fomular Milk Powder
4.2.2.2 Packged Milk Powder
4.2.2.2 Other Products
CHAPTER FIVE CHINA DAIRY PRODUCTS TRADE ANALYSIS IN 2008
5.1 Analysis of Dairy Product Imports
5.1.1 General Situation
5.1.2 Import Structure
5.1.3 Analysis of Milk Powder Imports
5.1.3.1 Import Volume
5.1.3.2 Import Structure
5.1.3.3 Source of Import
5.1.3.4 Import Destinations
5.1.3.5 Import Prices
5.1.4 Analysis of Whey Products Import
5.1.4.1Import Volume
5.1.4.2Source of Import
5.1.4.3 Import Destinations
5.1.5 Analysis of Fats & Oils Milk Import
5.1.6 Analysis of Cheese Imports
5.1.6.2 Import Source
5.1.7Analysis of Fresh Milk & Cream Import
5.1.8 Analysis of Yogurt Imports
5.2 Analysis of Dairy Product Exports
5.2.1General Export Status
5.2.2 Analysis of Fresh Milk & Cream Export
5.2.2.1 Export Volume
5.2.2.2 Source of Export
5.2.2.3 Export Prices
5.2.3 Analysis of Milk Powder Export
5.2.3.1 Export Volume
5.2.3.2 Source of Export
5.2.3.3 Export Prices



CHAPTER SIX ANALYSIS OF DAIRY CONSUMPTION IN CHINA IN 2008
6.1 Overall Situation of Dairy Consumption
6.2 Structure of Dairy Consumption of Urban Residents
6.3 Regional Analysis of Dairy Consumption of Urban Residents
6.4 Retail Prices of Dairy Products
6.4.1 Fresh Milk Prices
6.4.2 Yogurt Prices
6.4.3 Milk Powder Prices
6.5 Packged Milk Powder Prices
6.6 Feed Prices
CHAPTER SEVEN CHINA DAIRY MARKET COMPETITON ANALYSIS 2008
7.1 Features of Dairy Market Competition
7.2 Competition of Raw Milk Market
7.3 Competition of Milk Powder Market
7.3.1 Environment of Milk Powder Market
7.3.2 Market Share of Main Competitive Brands
7.4 Competition of UHT Milk Market
7.5 Market Competition of Pasteurized Milk
7.6 Market Competition of Yogurt
CHAPTER EIGHT CHINA LEADING DAIRY ENTERPRISES ANALYSIS 2008
8.1 Yili Group
8.1.1 Business Revenue
8.1.2 Status in Market Competition
8.1.3 Effects of Olympic Games and Melamine Scandal
8.1.3.1 Effects on Fundamentals
8.1.3.2 Effects on Stock
8.1.4 Business Forecast of Yili Group
8.2 Mengniu Group
8.2.3 Effects of Melamine Scandal
8.2.4 Business Forecast of Mengniu Group
8.3 Bright Dairy
8.3.4Business Forecast of Bright Dairy
8.4 Sanlu Group
8.4.2 Mergers and Acquisitions
8.4.3 Business Forecast of Sanlu Group
8.5 Sanyuan Foods
8.5.3 Opportunity after Melamine Scandal
8.5.4 Business Forecast of Sanyuan Foods



8.6 Wandersun Dairy
8.6.3 Opportunity after Melamine Scandal
8.6.4 Business Forecast of Wandersun Dairy
8.7 Yinqiao Dairy
8.7.4 Business Forecast of Yinqiao Dairy
8.8 New Hope Dairy
8.8.4 Business Forecast of New Hope Dairy
8.9 Nestle
8.9.3 Business Forecast of Nestle Dairy
8.10 Dumex
8.10.1 Business Revenue of Dumex
8.10.3 Business Forecast of Dumex
CHAPTER NINE CHINA PACKAGE ENTERPRISES ANALYSIS FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS 2008
9.1 Analysis of Tetra Pak's Main Business in China
9.2 Effects of Melamine Scandal on Tetra Pak
9.3 Forecast of Tetra Pak's Business in China in 2009
CHAPTER TEN CHINA DAIRY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS IN 2008
10.1 Overall Situation of Dairy Industry
10.2 Analysis of Running Ability of China Dairy Industry
CHAPTER ELEVEN ANALYSIS OF THE WORLD DAIRY MARKET IN 2008
11.1 Analysis of the Overall Situation of the World Dairy Market in 2008
11.1.1 Overall Situation of the World Dairy Market in 2008
11.1.2 Analysis of Factors Influencing on World Dairy Products Market Trend in 2008
11.2 Analysis of Dairy Market Situations of Leading Production & Trade Countries (or Regions) in the World in 2008
11.2.1 New Zealand
11.2.2 Australia
11.2.3 United States
11.2.4 EU-27
11.2.5 India
11.3 Analysis of Economic Crisis on Global Dairy Market
CHAPTER ELEVEN PREDICTIONS FOR CHINA'S DAIRY INDUSTRY IN 2009
12.1 Prospect of Raw Milk Production
12.1.1 Changes of Production Model
12.1.2Cow Inventory
12.1.3Raw Milk Output
12.1.4Raw Milk Production Regional Layouts
12.2 Prospect of Dairy Product Process
12.2.1 Liquid Milk
12.2.1.1UHT Milk



12.2.1.2 Pasteurized Milk
12.2.1.3 Yogurt
12.2.1.4 Lactic Drinks
12.2.2 Condensed Milk
12.2.2.1 Milk Powder
12.2.2.2 Other Condensed Milk

12.3 Prospect of Dairy Product Trade
12.3.1 Import Trade
12.3.2 Export Trade
12.4 Prospect of Prices of Raw Milk and Dairy Products
12.4.1 Raw Milk Prices
12.4.2 Dairy Product Prices
12.5 Prospect of Dairy Product Consumption
12.6 Prospect of Dairy Industrial Competition0
ANNEX
Annex One: China Raw Milk Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Annex Two: China WMP Balance Sheet, 2007-2009

Figures & Tables
Figure 1-1 Cow Inventory Growth Trend in China, 1998-2008
Figure 1-2 Raw Milk Output Growth Trend in China, 1998-2008
Figure 1-3 Liquid Milk Output Trend in China, 2000-2008
Figure 1-4 Solid Milk Products Output Trend in China, 2000-2008
Figure 1-5 Dairy Products Import Trend in China, by Month, 2004-2008
Table 1-1 Dairy Products Imports in China, 2008
Table 1-2 Dairy Products Exports from China, 2008
Figure 1-6 Growing Trend of Per Capita Milk Possession Volume in China, 1992-2008
Figure 1-7 Percapita Consumption of Dairy Products in Urban Regions of China,1992-2008
Table 1-3 Average Retail Price of Dairy Products at Urban Market in China, by Quarter, 2005-2008
Table 1-4 Growth of Average Retail Price of Dairy Products at Urban Market in China, by Quarter, 2005-2008
Table 1-5 Indices of Dairy Industry in China, 2002-2008
Figure 3-1 China Cow Inventory Growth Trend, 1998-2008
Figure 3-2 Growing Trend of Output of All Sorts of Milk in China, 1998-2008
Table 3-1 Dairy Cattle Inventory, Cow Milk Production and Growth, 1998-2008
Figure 3-3 Changes of Dairy Cattle Inventory of Different Provinces and Regions in China, 2008
Figure 3-4 Status of Provincial Dairy Cattle Inventory in China, 2008
Figure 3-5 Changes of Provincial Cow Milk Output, 2008
Figure 3-6 Status of Provincial Cow Milk Output in China, 2008
Figure 3-7 Change of Raw Milk Procurement Prices in Different Regions of China, 2005-2008
Figure 3-8 Liquid Milk Production and Growth in China, 2001-2008
Figure 3-9 Liquid Milk Production and Proportion in Total of Dairy Products in China, 1996-2008
Figure 3-10 Liquid Milk Production of Various Regions in China (I), 2000-2008
Figure 3-11 Liquid Milk Production of Various Regions in China (II), 2000-2008
Figure 3-12 Liquid Milk Output of Top 5 Provinces in China, 2000-2008
Figure 3-13 Liquid Milk Structure in China, by Volume, 2000-2008
Figure 3-14 UHT Milk Output & Its Growth Rate in China, 2001-2008
Figure 3-15 Pasteurized Milk Output & Its Growth Rate in China, 2001-2008
Figure 3-16 Yogurt Output & Its Growth Rate in China, 2001-2008
Figure 3-17 Solid Dairy Products Output & Its Proportion in Total Dairy Products in China, 1998-2008



Figure 3-18 Solid Dairy Products Output & Its Growth Trend in China, 1998-2008
Figure 3-19 Solid Dairy Products Output in Different Regions in China, 1998-2008
Figure 3-20 Analysis of Solid Dairy Products Output in Different Regions in China, 1998-2008
Figure 3-21 Solid Dairy Products Output in Main Production Provinces in China, 2003-2008
Figure 3-22 Trend of Milk Powder Production in China, 1990-2008
Figure 3-23 Change of Proportion of Milk Powder in Solid Dairy Products in China, 1990-2008
Figure 3-24 Proportion of Milk Powder in Total of Dairy Products in China, 1997-2008
Figure 3-25 Milk Powder Struction in China, by Volume, 1999-2008
Figure 3-26 Trend of WMP Production in China, 1990-2008
Figure 3-27 Trend of SMP Production in China, 1990-2008
Table 4-1 Dairy Products Imports of China, 2006-2008
Table 4-2 Import Structure Change of Dairy Products in China, 2006-2008
Figure 4-1 SMP Imports Trend in China, by Month, 2003-2008
Figure 4-2 WMP Not Containing Added Sugar Imports Trend, by Month in China, 2003-2008
Figure 4-3 WMP Containing Added Sugar Imports Trend, by Month in China, 2003-2008
Figure 4-4 Change of Milk Powder Import Structure of China, by Volume, 2002-2008
Table 4-3 Milk Powder Import Sources & Change in China, 2006-2008
Figure 4-5 SMP Import Destinations of China, by Volume, 2008
Figure 4-6 WMP Not Containing Added Sugar Import Destinations of China, by Volume, 2008
Figure 4-7 WMP Containing Added Sugar Import Destinations of China, by Volume, 2008
Figure 4-8 SMP Import Prices (CIF) Trend in China, 2003-2008
Figure 4-9 China WMP Not Containing Added Sugar Import Prices (CIF) Trend, 2003-2008
Figure 4-10 China Whey Products Import Trend, by Volume, 2003-2008
Table 4-4 Whey Products Import Origines & Shares Change in China, 2006-2008
Figure 4-5 Whey Products Import Destinations in China, by Volume, 2006-2008
Figure 4-11 Whey Products Import Prices ( CIF) Trend in China, 2003-2008
Figure 4-12 Butter &Dehydrolyzed Cream Import Trend in China, by Volume, 2004-2008
Figure 4-13 Milk Fats & Oils Import Sources & Shares Change in China, 2003-2008
Figure 4-14 Butter &Dehydrolyzed Cream Import Prices (CIF) Trend in China, 2004-2008
Figure 4-15 Cheese Imports Trend in China, by Volume, 2004-2008
Figure 4-16 Main Cheese Import Sources in China, 2008
Figure 4-18 Cheese Import Prices (CIF) Trend in China, 2004-2008
Figure 4-18 Fresh Milk & Cream Import Trend in China, by Volume, 2004-2008
Figure 4-19 Main Fresh Milk & Cream Import Sources in China, 2008
Figure 4-20 Fresh Milk & Cream Import Prices (CIF) Trend in China, 2004-2008
Figure 4-21 Yogurt Import Trend, by Volume in China, 2004-2008
Figure 4-22 Yogurt Import Source in China, 2008
Figure 4-23 Yogurt Import Prices (CIF) Trend in China, 2004-2008
Table 4-6 Dairy Product Exports in China, 2008
Figure 4-24 China Dairy Products Export Structure, by Volume, 2008
Figure 4-25 China Dairy Products Export Structure, by Value, 2008
Table 4-7 Comparsion of Exp & Imp Prices of Fresh Fresh Dairy Products of China, by Month, 2008
Figure 4-26 China Milk Powder Export Prices, by Month, 2008
Table 5-1 China Percapita Possession Volume of Milk & Prospects, 1992-2008
Figure 5-1 China Percapita Possession Volume of Milk Growth Trend, 1992-2008
Table 5-2 China Percapita Consumption of Dairy Products of Urban Residents, 1992-2008
Table 5-3 China Percapita Consumption Expenditures of Dairy Products, by Quarter, 2006-2008
Figure 5-2 China Rural Residents Percapita Consumption of Milk & Dairy Products, 1992-2015
Figure 5-3 China Urban Resident Percapita Consumption Structure of Dairy Products, by Value & Quarter, 2005-2008
Figure 5-4 China Urban Resident Percapita Consumption Structure of Dairy Products, by Volume & Quarter, 2005-2008



Table 5-4 Change of China Percapita Consumption of Dairy Products of Urban Residents in Different Regions, 2006-2008
Table 5-5 Change of China Percapita Consumption of Fresh Milk of Urban Residents in Different Regions, 2006-2008
Table 5-6 Change of China Percapita Consumption of Yogurt of Urban Residents in Different Regions, 2006-2008
Table 5-7 Change of China Percapita Consumption of Milk Powder of Urban Residents in Different Regions, 2006-2008
Table 5-8 China Average Retail Prices of Dairy Products in Urban Regions, by Quarter, 2005-2008
Table 5-9 Change of China Average Retail Prices of Dairy Products in Urban Regions, by Quarter, 2006-2008
Figure 5-5 China Average Corn Spot Prices Trend in Different Regions, by Month, 2006-2008
Figure 5-6 China Average Bean Meal Spot Prices Trend in Different Regions, by Month, 2006-2008
Figure 5-7 China Average Wheat Bran Coat Spot Prices Trend in Different Regions, by Month, 2006-2008
Figure 6-1 China Main Brands' Market Shares of Milk Powder, 2008
Figure 6-2 China Main Brands' Market Shares Change of UHT Milk, 2006-2008
Figure 6-3 China Main Brands' Market Shares Change of Pasteurised Milk, 2007-2008
Figure 6-4 China Main Brands' Market Shares Change of Yogurt, 2007-2008
Table 7-1 Yili Group Business Revenue, 1st half of 2008
Table 7-2 Yili Group Business Achievements, 1st Three Quarters 2008
Table 7-3 Yili Group Business Achievements, 2008
Table 7-4 Yili Group Main Dairy Products Output, 2008
Table 7-5 Mengniu Group Business Achievements, 1st half of 2008
Table 7-6 Mengniu Group Business Achievements, 2008
Table 7-7 Bright Dairy Business Achievements, 1st half of 2008
Table 7-8 Bright Dairy Business Achievements, 1st Three Quarters 2008
Table 7-9 Bright Dairy Business Achievements, 2008
Figure 7-1 China Top 10 Brands' Market Shares (by Sales Volume) Change of UHT Milk, 2007-2008
Table 7-10 Sanyuan Main Business Achievements, 1st half of 2008
Table 7-11 Sanyuan's Main Business Income Growth Trend in Different Regions, 1st half of 2008
Table 7-12 Sanyuan Main Business Achievements, 2008
Table 7-13 Wandersun Dairy Main Dairy Products Output Sheet, 2008
Table 7-14 Yinqiao Dairy Main Dairy Products Output Sheet, 2008
Table 7-15 New Hope Group Main Business Achievements, 1st half of 2008
Table 7-16 Forecast of Business Achievements of New Hope Dairy, 2008
Table 9-1 China Dairy Industry Main Development Index, 2002-2008
Table 9-2 China Dairy Industry Assets Management Rate, 2002-2008
Figure 10-1 World SMP Prices Trend, 2008
Figure 10-2 World WMP Prices Trend, 2008
Figure 10-3 World Butter Prices Trend, by Month, 2005-2008
Figure 10-4 World Cheddar Cheese Prices Trend, by Month, 2005-2008
Figure 10-5 World Whey Powder Prices Trend, by Month, 2005-2008
Table 10-1 Cow Inventory Change of Leading Countries of the World, 2001-2008
Table 10-2 Cow Milk Output Change of Leading Countries of the World, 2001-2008
Table 10-3 Production & Trade of WMP of Leading Countries of the World, 2006-2008
Table 10-4 Production & Trade of SMP of Leading Countries of the World, 2006-2008
Table 10-5 Production & Trade of Butter & Ghee of Leading Countries of the World, 2006-2008
Table 10-6 Production & Trade of Cheese of Leading Countries of the World, 2007-2008
Figure 10-6 Proportion of Liquid Milk Consumption vs Raw Milk of Leading Countries of the World, 2008
Table 10-7 New Zealand Raw Milk Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-8 New Zealand Butter Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-9 New Zealand Butter Export Destinations, 2004-2008
Table 10-10 New Zealand Cheese Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-11 New Zealand Cheese Export Destinations, 2004-2008
Table 10-12 New Zealand Nonfat Dry Milk Balance Sheet, 2007-2009



Table 10-13 New Zealand Dry Whole Milk Powder Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-14 New Zealand Dry Whole Milk Powder Export Destinations, 2004-2008
Figure 10-7 Australia Raw Milk Supply, by Month, 2005/06-2007/08
Table 10-15 Australia Raw Milk Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-16 Australia Butter Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-17 Australia Cheese Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-18 Australia Nonfat Dry Milk Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-19 Australia Dry Whole Milk Powder Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-20 America Cow Inventory & Cow Milk Output Change Trend, 2006-2008
Figure 10-8 America Total Cheese Output Trend, by Month, 2005-2008
Figure 10-9 America Cheddar Cheese Prices (FAS) Trend, 2005-2008
Figure 10-10 America Whey Powder Output Trend, by Month, 2005-2008
Figure 10-11 America Whey Powder Prices (FAS) Trend, 2005-2008
Figure 10-12 America SMP (human) Output Trend, by Month, 2005-2008
Figure 10-13 America SMP (human) Prices (FAS) Trend, 2005-2008
Figure 10-14 America Butter Output Trend, by Month, 2005-2008
Figure 10-15 America Butter Prices (FAS) Trend, 2005-2008
Table 10-22 EU-27 Raw Milk Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-23 EU-27 Butter Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-24 EU-27 Cheese Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-25 EU-27 Whole Dry Milk Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-26 EU-27 Non Fat Dry Milk Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-27 India Raw Milk Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-28 India SMP Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Table 10-29 India Butter & Ghee Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Figure 10-16 India Dairy Product Exports, 2006-07
Table 10-30 India Tariff Structure for Various Dairy Products
Annex I: China Raw Milk Balance Sheet, 2007-2009
Annex II: China WMP Balance Sheet, 2007-2009



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China dairy market review & outlook 2008-2009 proposal