Indonesia’s eCommerce ecosystem was in a phase of transformation during 2019 and early 2020. However, the rate of transformation has accelerated since Mar 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered severe restrictions on personal mobility.
2. PREFACE
Indonesia’s eCommerce ecosystem was in a phase of
transformation during 2019 and early 2020. However, the
rate of transformation has accelerated since Mar 2020,
when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered severe restrictions
on personal mobility. Access to goods and services on
offline channels have been impacted and many of those
needs are now being fulfilled on online platforms. In
Metamorphosis in a post COVID world, we highlight how
various parts of the eCommerce ecosystem are responding
to the new realities and what this could mean for their
growth and profitability.
The report provides a fresh perspective on the consumers’
demand graph and how it ties up with multiple supply-
side initiatives. It also calls out the demand and supply
side aspects that have to be taken in consideration, as
stakeholders assess their role and relevance in a rapidly
changing ecosystem.
The content for this report was developed by conducting
several rounds of triangulation of top-down views (from
sector experts) with our proprietary primary research
findings. This has allowed us to harmonise the big-picture
views with the nuanced insights from our bottom-up
research.
The report also incorporates suitable inputs from our
content partner, East Ventures Singapore. Their inputs
have helped us to address some of the key questions on
the minds of investors. We are thankful to them for their
valuable contributions.
This report is our first step towards sharing actionable
insights on the new-age sectors in Southeast Asia. We
hope it will serve as a useful guide for the readers.
Warm Regards,
Roshan Raj.
Business Partner
RedSeer Southeast Asia
01 | Metamorphosis
4. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Some of the key highlights from this report are:
» Big GMV set to get bigger.
Indonesia’s $23 bn formal eCommerce GMV in 2019
is likely shrug off the challenges of Covid and grow
50+% y-o-y to reach USD 35Bn in 2020 and ride the
digital adoption wave to reach $ 101 bn in 2025, as per
our estimates. In 2019, Electronics (69% contribution),
Fashion (16% contribution), and Beauty (9%
contribution) had emerged as the top-three categories
in terms of their absolute size and share of market.
However, from a growth perspective, grocery, household
appliances, personal care (part of Beauty), are expected
to be the leading growth categories over the short to
medium term driven by the impact of Covid.
» Covid-19 to have a positive impact on sector
in longer run.
Our supply side research indicates that online FMCG/
Grocery sector is currently seeing a massive adoption
boom due to Covid-19- with many of these first time
eGrocery shoppers likely to stick around. However, post
some short-term discretionary spending uncertainties
are smoothened out, even non-grocery categories like
electronics, fashion, beauty are likely to see a catalytic
positive impact due to covid-19 and long-term growth
acceleration. As 80% of our surveyed consumers and
expecting a spending rebound in next 6 months and
prefer the comfort of their home for shopping needs
rather than going in the crowded offline outlets.
However, e-tailers still need to solve for the short term,
lockdown driven challenges of insufficient delivery and
supply chain constraints. From a readiness perspective,
the large horizontals seem better positioned to cater to
the short and long end of the demand curve. Vertical
players could be better suited to swiftly consider online
and offline partnerships and especially take advantage
of their initial lead in the ‘fresh’ subcategory within
overall eGrocery.
Indonesia’s eCommerce is likely to see some near-term pains due to the disruption
unleashed by COVID-19. However, the sector is likely to see meaningful long-term gains
as the ecosystem steps up to a newer set of demand and supply requirements. The
emerging challenges and opportunities could necessitate some players to double down
on their existing strategy, while others might have to diversify and/or pivot. We expect the
eCommerce sector to emerge as a net-beneficiary of the current crisis as it offers a strong
tailwind for buyers and sellers to go online.
03 | Metamorphosis
5. » Massive jump in online user base numbers.
The pandemic is expected to give a major fillip to the
online user base with an estimated 12+mn users (1%
higher online penetration) coming onboard during CY20.
Such an increase in user count could have taken about
1.5-2 years under ordinary circumstances. eCommerce
companies can capitalise on many of these first-time
users by meeting three key customer needs i.e. Delivery
Speed, Product Safety and Product Variety. In addition,
competitive Delivery Pricing could be an additional
factor to be mindful of when catering to ex-Java areas.
» Brands warm up to eCommerce while pause
on aggressive seller side monetization.
Prior to Covid, the growing relevance of online sales
channels along with the online platforms’ need for
monetisation was leading to higher commissions, ad-
rates, value-added services etc. from sellers, brands
and manufacturers. However, basis some of the seller
challenges that we observe from our seller surveys, this
trend is likely to hit a pause till late 2020. However, Covid
has led brands to take eCommerce more seriously than
ever before and willing to closely partner with platforms
and spend on ad dollars to drive online growth. From
a platform standpoint, B2C share is likely to expand
in 2020 and rising B2C share will enable platforms’ to
improve their customer touchpoints, generate higher
quality revenues and margins.
» Move to in-house logistics accelerated by
COVID
In-house logistics has emerged as a key differentiator
during COVID-19 for some of the large horizontal
eCommerce players. It has allowed them to cater to
the unprecedented surge in shipment volumes and
will continue to see further investments in our view. In
general, in-house logistics allows players to grow B2C
shipments, mitigate risks of fraud and enables superior
customer touchpoints. We estimate in-house logistics
to account for 35% of the ~120mn shipments in April’20,
up from 24% share of total shipments in Q4’19. Despite
in-house logistics growth, sizeable 3PLs will continue
to remain relevant although alignment with the larger
players will become progressively more critical over
time. Additionally, the ability to offer instant/express
deliveries will be a key differentiator as consumers
Metamorphosis | 04
6. 05 | Metamorphosis
exhibit higher than ever willingness to adopt and pay for
such services.
» Payments: meaningful surge in eWallets to
continue
Consumers’ preference to switch to contactless, safer,
and more convenient payment modes has triggered
a sharp increase in the share of eWallet payments,
which reached 22% of the total formal eCommerce
transactions in Apr’ 20 versus 7% in 1Q19. This shift
also led to a decline in % share for Cash on Delivery
(CoD) transactions, which was seeing rapid growth
prior to this crisis as platforms sought to onboard first
time, cash-preferring customers. From a supply-side
perspective, both large eWallet players including OVO,
GoPay, DANA and emerging ones like ShopeePay have
stepped-up to meet this surging demand via suitable
cashback schemes.
» Continued Consolidation but pockets of
opportunity for verticals.
The top-three platforms, Tokopedia, Shopee and Lazada
now account for more than three-quarters of the
sector’s GMV. We expect GMV share to consolidate even
more going forward. Players with relatively lower GMV
shares could focus on specialised / vertical categories
including eGrocery where they can differentiate on
experience v/s competing on pricing.
» Emerging path to profitability.
We expect the short-term challenges to weaken the
unit economics for the sector in 2020. However, as the
players streamline their operations to the new norms
and brand side monetization is accelerated, we expect
profitability metrics to improve from 2021 onwards.
Accordingly, we estimate sector-level contribution
margins to dilute to (6-7%) in 2020 from (3-4%) in 2019,
before staging a recovery to reach ~ 1% in 2025.
21. Metamorphosis | 20
Roshan brings 14+ years of experience in investment advisory and consulting services. Prior
to RedSeer he was Vice President at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research where
he generated in-depth insights on telecom, media and ecommerce in Southeast Asia (SEA).
In his current role, he has been involved multiple Commercial Due Diligence projects in SEA,
particularly Indonesia. He is an MBA from Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad with a
Bachelor in Technology, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras.
He can be reached at roshanb@redseer.com
Roshan Raj Behera
Partner, SEA
Mrigank brings 5+ years of experience in advising corporates and investors in India, SEA and
MENA and Europe across deal cycle and strategic planning process. He is frequently quoted
and acknowledged by media channels as a thought leader in the internet space. He is an MBA
from Indian Institute of Management, Indore with a Bachelor in Technology, Indian Institute of
Technology, Roorkee.
He can be reached at mrigank@redseer.com
Mrigank Gutgutia
Director, SEA
Akshay has 6+ years’ experience covering Strategy Consulting, Equity Research, Business
Analytics & Technology. In his current role, he has worked across geographies (MENA, Europe,
India and SEA) on engagements covering Market Landscaping, Competitive positioning &
Opportunity identification, Commercial Due Diligence, etc. He was previously working with
Goldman Sachs as an Equity Analyst covering their EMEA Telecom sector. He’s an Alumnus of
IIM Kozhikode.
He can be reached at Akshay@redseer.com
Akshay Jayaprakasan
Engagement Manager
Divyanshu has 2 years of experience advising various corporates and investors from SEA and
India across retail, e-commerce and e-logistics space. He is an M.Sc in Economics from Indian
Institute of Technology, Kharagpur.
He can be reached at divyanshus@redseer.com
Divyanshu Shrivastava
Associate Consultant
Mohit has 3 years’ experience in the Research and Consulting industry. In his current role as a
Business Analyst, he has worked with Consumer Internet clients across geographies (MENA,
Europe, India and SEA) on engagements covering Market Landscaping, Competitive positioning
& Commercial Due Diligence. He has completed his B-Tech in mechanical engineering from the
Vellore Institute of Technology.
He can be reached at khanna.mohit@redseer.com
Mohit Khanna
Business Analyst
TEAM