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Stephen Needel - Altered Realities - 2016

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Stephen Needel - Altered Realities - 2016

  1. 1. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   23  Years  of  Virtual  Reality   Dr.  Stephen  Needel   Advanced  Simula7on       June  2016   We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  
  2. 2. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   Advanced  Simula7ons   •  1993  –  Simula7on  Services  -­‐  Beginning  of  VR  for  MR   –  SoOware  developed  by  Dr.  Raymond  Burke   •  2003  –  Formed  Advanced  Simula7ons   •  Over  450  separate  projects  tes7ng  thousands  of  varia7ons   –  Packaging     –  Pricing   –  Promo7ons   –  Shelf  Layouts   –  Shelf  Assortments   –  New  Products  
  3. 3. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   3  Things  To  Know   Virtual  Reality  works  well  for   marke7ng  research  –  most  of  the   7me   Thing 1 Three  things  to  know  about  Virtual  Reality    
  4. 4. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   What  Works  –  And  What  Doesn’t       –  Any  CPG/FMCG  product   –  Expensive/luxury  goods  (needs   special  instruc7ons)   –  Occasion-­‐specific  products   (again,  special  instruc7ons)   PRODUCTS  
  5. 5. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   What  Works  –  And  What  Doesn’t       –  Any  CPG/FMCG  product   –  Expensive/luxury  goods  (needs   special  instruc7ons)   –  Occasion-­‐specific  products   (again,  special  instruc7ons)   PRODUCTS   APPLICATIONS       –  Packaging   –  Pricing   –  Promo7ons   –  New  Products   –  Shelf  Assort/Layout   –  Subs7tu7on  Behavior  
  6. 6. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   What  Works  –  And  What  Doesn’t       –  Any  CPG/FMCG  product   –  Expensive/luxury  goods  (needs   special  instruc7ons)   –  Occasion-­‐specific  products   (again,  special  instruc7ons)   PRODUCTS   APPLICATIONS       –  Packaging   –  Pricing   –  Promo7ons   –  New  Products   –  Shelf  Assort/Layout   –  Subs7tu7on  Behavior       –  Any  country  that  has  a   version  in  Windows   –  Anywhere  you  can  put  a   PC  and  a  shopper   COUNTRIES  
  7. 7. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   What  Works  –  And  What  Doesn’t   PRODUCTS   APPLICATIONS   COUNTRIES   –  Anything  requiring  taste,   smell,  or  touch     –  A  product  requiring   interac7on  (e.g.  phones)   –  Services   –  Adver7sing  (long-­‐term  effects)   –  Category  growth  driven  by   new  shoppers   –  Brand  growth  driven  by   increased  purchase  frequency   –  Countries  where   internet  is  sporadic   –  Countries  where   central  loca7on  is  not   prac7cal  
  8. 8. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   3  Things  To  Know   •  Virtual  Reality  works  well  for   marke7ng  research  –  most  of  the   7me   •  The  data  is  different  from  what  you   are  used  to  Thing 2 Three  things  to  know  about  Virtual  Reality    
  9. 9. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   784 251 101 19 7 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 1 2 3 4+ TEST BRAND - NUMBER OF UNITS PURCHASED The  Data  is  Different   Most  shoppers  in  the  sample  are  not  going  to  buy  the  test  brand   –  Implica7ons  for  test  design    
  10. 10. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   The  Data  is  Different   Most  shoppers  in  the  sample  are  not  going  to  buy  the  test  brand   –  Want  at  least  30  expected  test  brand  buyers   •  Run  big  samples   •  Constrain  sample  by  only  using  category  buyers,  not  rep  sample   •  Constrain  the  category-­‐buying  sample  (e.g.  brand  non-­‐rejectors)   •  Augment  for  test  brand  users  
  11. 11. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   The  Data  is  Different   Results  are  rarely  significant  at  the  95%  confidence  level   –  Shopping  data  is  not  normally  distributed   •  Gamma  or  NBD   •  Reduces  sta7s7cal  sensi7vity   •  Transforms  don’t  help   –  Test  effects  are  oOen  not  large  –  and  not  expected  to  be   –  Look  for  pa)erns  of  shopping  change  more  than  sta3s3cal   significance  
  12. 12. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   45% 55% NO SALES DIFFERENCE SALES DIFFERENCE 61% 39% INCONSISTENT CONSISTENT The  Data  is  Different   What  they  say  is  not  always  what  they  do   –  VR  is  different  from  surveys     –  Don’t  be  surprised  –  it’s  why  you  use  VR   SIMULATION  RESULTS   POST-­‐SHOPPING  SURVEY  
  13. 13. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   3  Things  To  Know   •  Virtual  Reality  works  well  for   marke7ng  research  –  most  of  the   7me   •  The  data  is  different  from  what  you   are  used  to   •  It’s  not  about  the  technology   Thing 3 Three  things  to  know  about  Virtual  Reality    
  14. 14. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   It’s  Not  The  Technology   It’s  about  whether  it  validates   –  For  mul7ple  categories   –  For  the  system  you  are  buying   –  For  two  basic  ques7ons:   •  Do  shoppers  buy  like  they  normally  buy  using  this  system?   •  Do  shopper  respond  to  marke7ng  s7muli  like  they   normally  do?  
  15. 15. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   It’s  Not  The  Technology   It’s  about  crea7ng  the  right  psychological  environment   –  No  advantage  to  store  walk-­‐throughs:   − Excep7ons   −  Stop-­‐ability  of  end-­‐aisle  displays   −  Eye-­‐tracking  of  signage   − Neither  is  a  good  use  of  VR  
  16. 16. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   It’s  Not  The  Technology   It’s  about  leing  them  shop  like  they’d  normally  shop   –  Never  sejle  for  2D  images   –  Otherwise,  just  show  shoppers  pictures  –  why  pay  for  VR?   –  Shoppers  use  informa7on  on  sides  and  backs   •  Why  take  that  away?   •  Why  risk  altering  behavior?  
  17. 17. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   It’s  Not  The  Technology   It’s  about  hiring  a  supplier  who  understands:   –  The  boundaries  of  the  technology   –  Experimental  design   –  How  the  research  will  be  used   –  What  your  business  issues  are   –  How  to  turn  the  data  into  ac7on  
  18. 18. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   3  Things  To  Know   •  Virtual  Reality  works  well  for   marke7ng  research  –  most  of  the   7me   •  The  data  is  different  from  what  you   are  used  to   •  It’s  not  about  the  technology   3things
  19. 19. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   Thank  You!       For  more  informa7on,  please  contact:   Dr.  Stephen  Needel   Advanced  Simula7ons   drsteveasl@gmail.com   +1-­‐404-­‐944-­‐0248   www.advancedsimula7ons.com  
  20. 20. We’ve  Learned  A  Few  Things  –  Altered  Reali7es   Dr.  Stephen  Needel,  Advanced  Simula6ons,  2016   Q  &  A   Ray  Poynter   The  Future  Place   Dr.  Stephen  Needel   Advanced  Simula6ons  

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