1. U.S. Policy in
Afghanistan

2. Agenda
1. A Brief History of U.S. Policy Toward
Afghanistan
2. The Obama Administration’s Policy
3. Issues and Challenges

3. U.S. foreign assistance
Brief History of U.S. Policy Toward Afghanistan
 First contact 1820; Josiah Harlan, The Man Who Would Be King.
 In 1921, the United States establishes diplomatic legation and
begins formally building its relationship with Afghanistan.
 Cold War Geopolitics: 1945-1979
Strengthening relationships and foreign assistance
 Peace Corps active between 1962 and 1979
 All aid to Afghanistan cut off after Soviet invasion in 1979
 Operation Cyclone: 1979 - 1989

4. U.S. foreign assistance
Brief History of U.S. Policy Toward Afghanistan
 Pre-9/11 Clinton & Bush Administration Policy
 Both held talks with Taliban to moderate its policies
 Both withheld recognition of Taliban as the legitimate government of
Afghanistan
 Both urged the end of discrimination against women
 Clinton fires cruise misses at AQ training camps in eastern Afghanistan
and gets UN to adopt sanctions after AQ bombings of U.S. embassies in
Tanzania and Kenya
 Bush steps up engagement with Pakistan; considers military assistance to
Northern Alliance but refrains from doing so.

5. U.S. foreign assistance
Brief History of U.S. Policy Toward Afghanistan
 Post-9/11 Bush Administration Policy
 Under the RUMF the U.S. overthrows Taliban when it refuses to extradite
UBL, completed by December 2001
 Afghanistan takes a back seat in terms of leadership time and attention,
and resourcing to the Iraq war (“nation-building light”)
 U.S.-led NATO alliance plays leading role in Afghanistan; U.S. footprint
consists of only one brigade combat team & SF teams until early 2007
 Focus is on security assistance; U.S. has “lead country” role in building
capacity of the Afghan National Army
 Adds a Marine battalion in 2008

6. U.S. foreign assistance
Obama Administration Policy
Three bigd
reviews. . .
 Launches strategic review upon taking office, but sends an
additional 17,000 troops in February 2009 before review is
complete, based on earlier request of ISAF Commander
 March 2009 gives results of policy review and announces
“comprehensive new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan”
 Narrows the mission to “core goal” . . .
“to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and
Afghanistan and to prevent their return to either country in the
future”

7. U.S. foreign assistance
Obama Administration Policy
 Increases focus on Pakistan (AfPak) and launches trilateral
commission b/w U.S., Afghanistan and Pakistan (March 2009 speech)
 Places greater focus on training and increasing size of Afghan
security forces so they can take the lead, including partnering
U.S. with Afghan units (March 2009 speech)
 Increases civilian effort for economic development and good
governance: a “capable and accountable Afghan government”
(March 2009 speech)

8. U.S. foreign assistance
Obama Administration Policy
 May 2009 ISAF Assessment
 GEN McChrystal “the overalls situation is deteriorating” and says
if turnaround doesn’t occur in next 12 months the U.S. “risks and
outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible”
 Prioritizes governance efforts equally with security efforts
 Advocates raising Afghan National Security Force
endstrengths to 400,000
 Geographic prioritization of effort
 Need to change ISAF operational culture with greater unity of
effort and interaction with the population

9. U.S. foreign assistance
Obama Administration Policy
 ISAF Assessment leads to another review . . .
 Fall 2009 strategy review considers ISAF Assessment and
classified set of “resource recommendations.”
 Debate over: narrow focus on counter-terrorism, “a counter-
terrorism plus” approach, and more multi-faceted campaign
described in ISAF Assessment (detailed in Obama’s Wars)
 Obama’s December 2009 West Point Speech
 Confirms core U.S. goal & focus on security
 Announces deployment of 30,000 more troops
 Launches civilian “surge”
 Sets deadline: condition-based withdraw of U.S. forces
beginning July 2011

10. U.S. foreign assistance
Obama Administration Policy
 New policy change . . .
Afghanistan-Pakistan Annual Review, December 2010
 President Obama says there is “significant progress” toward the
core goal, but that “the gains we’ve made are still fragile and
reversible”
 Contains two new elements and a clarification . . .
1. States the transition to full Afghan lead will conclude by 2014
2. Stresses U.S. & Afghanistan will form a “new strategy
partnership,” but did not propose what that would look it like
What does he make clear?

11. U.S. foreign assistance
Obama Administration Policy
 We are not nation-building . . .
“And that’s why, from the start, I’ve been very clear
about our core goal. It’s not to defeat every last threat to
the security of Afghanistan, because, ultimately, it is Afghans
who must secure their country. And it’s not nation-
building, because it is Afghans who must build
their nation. Rather, we are focused on
disrupting, dismantling and defeating al Qaeda
in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and preventing its
capacity to threaten America and our allies in the future.”

12. U.S. foreign assistance
Obama Administration Policy
 Most recent policy speech June 2011 . . .
 Reaffirms commitment to 2014 and “core goal”
 Says U.S. is continuing to make progress; outlines plan to
withdraw 33,000 more troops
 Announces U.S. is holding preliminary peace talks with the
Taliban will work toward a political settlement b/w Afghan
government and all opposition groups, including Taliban
Also . . .
10 year anniversary of start of war (October 7, 2001)
Bonn Conference fails to achieve consensus on transition (Dec)
Taliban opens office in Qatar, cancels talks in March 2012

13. Data Points

14. Data Points

15. Data Points

16. Issues and Challenges
 Effect of Koran burnings and Robert Bales on timeline
 How the transition will occur (NATO Summit in May)
 President Obama warns against “a rush to exit”
 Security issues: force size, continuing progress
 Economics: 90% of Afghan budget comes form foreign aid; says it
will need at least $10 billion annually to maintain commitments
 Karzai succession
 Presidential election in 2014, no good replacement
 Pakistan
 Sanctuary for AQ
 Taliban proxies vis-à-vis India

17. Final Thoughts
President Obama, December 1, 2009
“If I did not think that the security of the United States
and the safety of the American people were at stake in
Afghanistan, I would gladly order every single one of
our troops home tomorrow.”
"Our overarching goal remains the same: to disrupt,
dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan and
Pakistan, and to prevent its capacity to threaten
America and our allies in the future."