2. 02.Telecom Sector
Content
What is Disruption?
About Telecom Industry in India
Disruptions of the Telecom Sector 2016
Disruptive Power of Reliance Jio
Financial Implications for the Incumbent –
Financial Implications for the Incumbent –
Financial Implications for the Incumbent -
Consolidation and Closure of Smaller Players
Government Assistance to Revieve the Telecom Sector
Conclusions
01.
02.
03.
04.
05.
06.
07.
08.
09.
10.
4. What is Disruption ?
Disruption is often used as an effective
strategy by a new and powerful entrant to
outcast strong incumbents. Disruptions
currently happening in corporate world
include : (a) New-market disruptions and (b)
low-end disruptions. New-market
disruptions calls for creating whole new
markets and/or new products; where as
low-end disruptions are intended to lock
horns with existing incumbents in existing
markets and/or products.
Harvard Business School professor and
disruption guru Clayton Christensen says
a disruption displaces an existing
market, industry or technology,
and produces something new and
more efficient and worthwhile. It is
at once destructive and creative.
But to be truly disruptive, the
proposed business idea should
disrupt all proven incumbents in
the target market.
Source: https://www.businesstoday.in/opinion/columns/recent-developments-that-disrupted-indian-telecom-space/story/248127.html
04.Telecom Sector
Major
Disruptors
of the world
6. About Indian Telecom Sector
In 1948, there were only
80,000 telephones
(landlines) in India. The
number of fixed-line
telephones in 1991 were 5.07
million and the sector was
entirely state-run.Liberalization in 1994 with
the introduction of National
Telecom Policy. Telecom
Regulatory Authority of
India (TRAI) an independent
regulator was set up in 1997.
In July 1995, the first mobile
telephone service was
launched in India
Indian telecom industry is
now the second largest in
the world by number of
subscribers
The sector has since
witnessed exponential
growth over past years
primarily driven by affordable
tariffs, wider availability, roll
out of Mobile number
portability (MNP), 3G & 4G,
evolving consumption
patterns of subscribers
06.Telecom Sector
7. About Indian Telecom Sector
Post Reliance Jio’s Entry in the telecom
sector, active subscriber base has been
increasing due to drop in data tariff,
improving 4G network & low cost calling.
The number of mobile subscribers in India
increased from 1,001 million at the end of
Sept 2016 (when Jio commenced
operations) to 1,191 million at the end of
December 2017.
Mobile data usage in India jumped 144 per
cent (y-o-y) to reach 2,360 petabytes, with
average consumption per user in 4G
broadband reaching 11 gigabytes per month
in December 2017.
The average 4G data consumption in India
for year 2016 (before the introduction ofJio)
was around 1 GB per user per month.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Active Subscriber (in Mn)
Airtel Vodafone IDEA JIO Others Total
158 178 172 225
472
784
1,106
1,540
810
3,780
4,310
5,060
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Q1 -FY
2017
Q2- FY
2017
Q3 -FY
2017
Q4- FY
2017
Q1 -FY
2018
Q2- FY
2018
Q3 -FY
2018
Q4- FY
2018
DataUsage (Mn MBs)
Airtel Idea Vodafone Jio
Source: HDFC Securities Research, RBSA internal research
07.Telecom Sector
9. Reliance Jio has made 2016 a
landmark year in terms of tariff,
services and technology
Reliance Jio launched
“introductory offer” at worldwide
lowest rate INR 50 per gigabyte
Negative Impact on
Financials of all the Telecom
Companies in India
Jio’s Pricing strategy has
disrupted the market & forced
the telecom companies to
devise ways of survival
Due to stiff competition,
it was excepted to bring
consolidation in the industry.
Govt. to commence cutting
down of Inter Connect Usage
(IUC) charges leading to fall in
revenues of all incumbents
Reliance Jio focused on data
instead of voice market which
is already matured.
Disruption in 2016
INTRODUCTORY
OFFER
PRICING
STRATEGY
DIGITAL
LIFE
09.Telecom Sector
11. Disruptive power of Reliance Jio
Jio connectivity is available
in nearly18,000 cities and
2,00,000 villages across
the country
Consolidation or shut down
of other players from the
Industry.
322 million – Jio’s expected
numbers of subscribers by
2020
Jio's network is
sophisticated enough to
seamlessly upgrade to 5G.
Jio has largest fibre-optic
network in India
Financially backed by its
Strong Parent “Reliance
Industries Limited”
Investment issue faced by
other market player to set
up 4G network.
Strategy to target rural
area of India at low price
11.Telecom Sector
12. Financial Performance
Reliance Jio
Jio with its ubiquitous 4G only network is
highly successful in moving the market from
voice to data and remains a dominant
market leader in data consumption.
Company is doing aggressive capex to
leverage the data capacity advantage, tying
up for content, expanding VoLTE presence
etc.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) dropped
because Reliance Jio did not charge prime
customers and also gave discounts to those
who recharged online.
Source: HDFC Securities- Reliance Jio, RBSA internal research
6,150
6,860
7,130
156
154
137
5,600
5,800
6,000
6,200
6,400
6,600
6,800
7,000
7,200
7,400
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
Q2-2018 Q3-2018 Q4-2018
Revenue (INRin Crs) ARPU (INR)
Revenue ARPU
-
88,435
1,24,449
1,43,821
-22.1
-12.2
21.3
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Debt (INRin Crs)
EBITDA Debt to EBITDA
12.Telecom Sector
14. Financial Implications for
the Incumbent – Airtel
Airtel's ARPUs severely impacted as it tries
to match rival Jio’s tariff offerings.
Lower ARPUs affects revenues and profits.
Airtel’s high-paying customers are going for
plan downgrades. Its ARPU has seen erosion
of more than INR 70 in the past two years.
The reduction in International Termination
Rates (ITR) also adversely impacted the
telco. ITR is paid by international operators
to local networks that receive calls. The ITR
rate cut hurt Airtel’s gross revenue by INR
123.5 crore in Q4FY2018.
Drop in net profits was steeper than
revenues due to higher fixed operating
expenses. The interest cost, capex plans and
operational costs have put pressure on the
operational income.
Source: MOSL Report – Bharti Airtel, RBSA internal research
14,875 15,589 16,433
14,300 13,980
12,489193 192 194 196 188
172
158 154 145
123 116
0
50
100
150
200
250
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Revenue Standalone(INRin Crs) ARPU(INR)
Revenue (Standalone) ARPU
45,351
49,919
55,496
60,300 62,276
53,663
11.2%
13.2%
23.8%
12.9%
-15.9%
0.1%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Revenue Standalone( INRin Crs )
Revenue Standalone Net Profit Margin
14.Telecom Sector
15. Financial Implications for
the Incumbent – Airtel
There is an Increase in debt significantly on
account of spectrum acquisition.
Debt to EBIDTA had increased to 9.4 times in
FY2017; which was brought down to 3.8
times in FY2018, through stake sales in
investment companies.
During FY2018, Airtel undertook several
initiatives to meet its liquidity and funding
requirements. The Company had completed
the secondary sale of a portion of its stake in
Bharti Infratel Limited (“Bharti Infratel”) to
global fund managers and other investors
for a consideration of approx INR 2,570 Crs
and INR 3,325 Crs in Q2’18 and Q3’18
respectively.
The decreasing interest coverage ratio
indicates that the company is under stress
to meet its debt commitments.
Net interest costs of the company have risen
due to increase in debt burden.
Irrespective of the deteriorating debt
condition of the company, it will still have to
continue incurring capex so as to compete
with the sophisticated 4G VolTE network of
Jio.
14,218
10,365
21,570
45,571
60,095
65,416
1.1
0.6
1.1
2.1
9.4
3.8
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Debt Standalone (INRin Crs)
Debt Standalone Debt to EBITDA
6,644
9,671
11,871 12,056
-5,781
4,152
4.0
7.2
8.4
3.4
-1.1
0.7
-2.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
EBITStandalone ( INRin Crs)
EBIT Standalone Interest Coverage Ratio
Source: MOSL Report – Bharti Airtel, Annual Report FY 2018, Bharti Airtel, RBSA internal research
15.Telecom Sector
17. Financial Implications for
the Incumbent – IDEA
Both voice and data services hurt by a brutal
price war triggered by the entry of Reliance
Jio, a development which has also forced
India’s No. 3 telco to merger with rival
Vodafone India.
Decrease in revenue because of the
reduction in interconnect rate, subscriber
base and reduction in average revenue per
user (ARPU).
The regulation imposed 57% sharp decline in
IUC settlement rates negatively impacted
Idea’s Revenue and EBITDA
Decrease in net profit margins due to
increase in finance cost, decrease in revenue
and increase depreciation.
6540
7040
7560
8420
9010
9490
8660
8130
7470
65106140
174
165
181176 179180173174179181173
157
142
132
114
105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Q1-2014
Q2-2014
Q3-2014
Q4-2014
Q1-2015
Q2-2015
Q3-2015
Q4-2015
Q1-2016
Q2-2016
Q3-2016
Q4-2016
Q1-2017
Q2-2017
Q3-2017
Q4-2017
Q1-2018
Q2-2018
Q3-2018
Q4-2018
Revenue(INRin Crs) ARPU (INR)
Revenue ARPU
22,457
26,518
31,570
35,949 35,575
28,279
4%
6%
9%
7%
-2%
-17%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Revenue (INRin Crs)
Revenue Net Margin
Source: MOSL Report – Idea Cellular, RBSA internal research
17.Telecom Sector
18. Financial Implications for
the Incumbent – IDEA
Idea’s net debt stood at INR 36,400 crore, or
3.2 times annualized EBITDA for the
September 2016 quarter. By the end of the
September 2017 quarter, debt has ballooned
to INR 54,000 crore or as much as nine
times annualized EBITDA.
Even after a reduction of INR 4,000 crore of
debt from sale of its stand-alone towers to
American Tower Corp in the FY2018, the net
Debt-EBITDA ratio would be around 8.8-8.9
times, simply because of the additional
tower lease rentals the company will now
have to bear.
Debt as on 31st March 2018 stands at INR.
57,985 � Crs includes a large component of
debt from DoT under ‘Deferred Payment
Obligation’ for Spectrum acquired in
Auctions.
Source: MOSL Report – Idea Cellular, RBSA internal research
14,043
20,635
26,859
40,541
55,053
57,985
2.5 2.7 2.7
3.4
5.4
9.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Debt (INRin Crs)
Debt Debt to EBITDA
2,527 2,814
5,508 5,711
2,449
-2,362
2.3
3.9
5.1
3.2
0.6
-0.5
-1.0
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
EBIT(INRin Crs)
EBIT Interest Coverage Ratio
18.Telecom Sector
20. Financial Implications for
the Incumbent – VODAFONE
Vodafone India’s service revenue dropped
29% on y-o-y to INR 7,100 crore in the fourth
quarter of 2017-18 as the country’s
second-largest telco reeled under the
effects of cuts in local and international
interconnect rates and price wars.
Vodafone India’s average revenue per user
(ARPU) fell to its lowest ever of Rs 105 in the
fourth quarter of 2017-18.
Due to fierce competition in the telecom
industry, Vodafone announced to merge
with its rivalry Idea cellular.
Source: MOSL Report – Telecom, RBSA internal research
9,295 9,565
10,335 10,550 10,880
9,970
8,570
7,100
198195192192193187189184184178175177176171
158
142141132
114105
0
50
100
150
200
250
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q1-2014
Q2-2014
Q3-2014
Q4-2014
Q1-2015
Q2-2015
Q3-2015
Q4-2015
Q1-2016
Q2-2016
Q3-2016
Q4-2016
Q1-2017
Q2-2017
Q3-2017
Q4-2017
Q1-2018
Q2-2018
Q3-2018
Q4-2018
Revenue (INRin Crs) ARPU (INR)
Revenue ARPU
20.Telecom Sector
22. Stress in the Telecom Industry
Source: https://www.businesstoday.in/opinion/columns/recent-developments-that-disrupted-indian-telecom-space/story/248127.html
Cumulative debt of Telecom Sector - INR 7.7 Lakh crores
High spectrum cost - Wherein highest bid/sale price at one
auction acts as a floor price for the succeeding auction.
Higher Debt to EBITDA Ratio for sector as a whole
Decreasing interest coverage ratio to such levels where
servicing the current debt has become unsustainable
Declining trend in profitability due to various reasons like
entry of greenfield Telecom Service Providers (TSPs) as
against the existing brown field operators, Spectrum Usage
Charges is afixed proportion ofAdjustedGross Revenue (AGR).
Tariff war and disruptive Entry of Reliance Jio
Expansion of telecom services to remote and rural area in
the country involves huge capital investments by the service
providers. Also, low returns on these investments (low
potential revenues, low commercial activity, etc.) make
expansion in these areas less profitable for the TSPs and act
as a bottleneck for their investments
22.Telecom Sector
24. Merger of Airtel and Telenor
The transaction, won’t involve any
cash payments to Telenor. It will
give Airtel access to 54 million
customers (increasing its user
base to 320 million), 43.4
megahertz (MHz) of spectrum in
the 1,800MHz band and 20,000
base stations.
Transaction Payment and Synergy
Airtel will assume the Telenor
unit’s liabilities related to license
fees and lease obligations for
phone towers (around INR 1,600
crore of spectrum and INR 4,000
crore lease obligations).
Post-Acquisition Airtel Revenue
Market Share will be 34.30% as
against Idea plus Vodafone
40.70%
Market Share Benefits
The Benefits of Carried forward
loss of INR 5575.95 crore can be
claimed by Airtel
24.Telecom Sector
25. Merger of Idea and Vodafone
Vodafone to combine its
subsidiary Vodafone India
(excluding its 42% stake in Indus
Towers) with Idea Cellular
Immediately post merger,
Vodafone to receive a 50% stake.
Vodafone will transfer a 4.9%
stake in the combined company
to Aditya Birla Group
Transaction Value equation
The two companies agreed to
merge their operations with a
swap ratio of 1:1.
Vodafone: 45.1%
Aditya Birla Group: 26.0%
Idea’s minority shareholders: 28.9%
Ownership Split Post Merger Scenario
35% of Market Share
41% of Revenue Market Share
40 Crores of customers
25.Telecom Sector
26. Aircel files for bankruptcy
due to high debt
mounting losses triggered by price war
Entry of Reliance Jio impacted
small telecom players like Aircel
Aircel - Rcom plan to merger; but
latter called off
Aircel’s attempts for debt
restructuring couldn’t be
successful.
Aircel filed for bankruptcy - Maxis
(the Parent Company) lost $1.2
billion injected for common stock
and $1.6 billion of redeemable
preference shares.
26.Telecom Sector
27. Reliance Communication
sells its telecom assets
Having already endured a steady
loss of market share over several
years , Rcom was badly hit by the
slump in mobile pricing
Rcom intended to gain scale and
cost savings through the merger
with rival operator Aircel, but it
didn’t go through
Rcom closed its consumer mobile
business and agreed to sell its
entire tower and optical fiber
network to Jio, along with its
mobile spectrum.
NCLT, based on the application by
Ericssion admits RCOM for
insolvency proceedings. RBSA
Restructuring Advisors was
appointed as Interim Resolution
Professional (IRP)
The telco managed to stave off
the insolvency process. Supreme
Court allows RCom to sell
telecom assets worth Rs 181
billion to Reliance Jio
27.Telecom Sector
29. Improving Regulatory
Environment
The Govt. has swung into action to address some of the regulatory overhang.
Some of the Govt. initiatives include:
M&A
Guidelines
Approved in Feb 2014
Increase in merged entities' market share cap to 50%
(including wireline), potentially enabling larger operators to
participate in the M&A process
Easing
Spectrum
Holding Caps
An operator can hold up to 35% of the total spectrum
assigned across all bands in a circle
The 50% cap on holding of total spectrum within a given
band in a circle scrapped
Operators can hold up to 50% of the combined spectrum
holding in sub-1 GHz bands (700, 800, 900 MHz) in a circle
Spectrum
Sharing and
Trading
Spectrum sharing enables operators to supplement existing
spectrum holdings and achieve higher spectrum efficiency
Spectrum trading allows operators to acquire and bolster
spectrum holding or monetise unused or under-utilised
spectrum
29.Telecom Sector
30. Improving Regulatory
Environment
Passive & Active
Infrastructure
Sharing
Passive network sharing allows operators to expand network
coverage in a cost effective manner
Active infrastructure sharing allows operators to reduce their
capex and lower operational costs
Spectrum
Payment
Extension
Extension of time period for the payment of spectrum
bought in auctions by telcos to 16 years from the current 10
years
Approved lowering of interest rate on penalties imposed on
telecom operator
30.Telecom Sector
Spectrum
Sharing and
Trading
3% flat spectrum usage charges (SUC)
32. Conclusion
India’s telecom sector is going through a
period of stress owing to growing losses and
rising debt, amid heightened competition
due to the disruptive entry of Reliance Jio
A new entrant has disrupted the market with
low-cost data services and the revenue of
incumbent players has fallen. The crisis has
also severely impacted investors, lenders,
partners and vendors of these incumbent
companies.
Besides the tough competition in the
market, carriers have claimed that almost 30
paise of every rupee earned by them is paid
as levy and taxes to the government, which
is one of the major reasons for the industry’s
debt of INR 7.7 lakh crore.
The government has swung into action to
support the debt laden telecom sector. It is
formulating a new telecom policy (NTP),
where issues of regulatory and licensing
frameworks impacting the sector,
connectivity for all, quality of services, ease
of doing business and absorption of new
technologies including 5G and IoT will be
addressed.
32.Telecom Sector
34. SNAPSHOT OF RBSA
TELECOM CREDENTIALS
Insolvency Resolution Professional for
Reliance Communications Ltd. under
Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code, 2016
Insolvency Advisory Services
Insolvency Resolution Professional for
Reliance Infratel Ltd. under Insolvency &
Bankruptcy Code, 2016
Insolvency Advisory Services
Valuation of Business, Tangible and
Intangible Asset of Reliance Globalcom
Limited for the purpose of Purchase Price
Allocation for Singapore Listing of Global
Telecommunication Infrastructure Trust
(GTIL)
Valuation & Purchase Price Allocation
Disinvestment of Stake in Bharti
Hexacom Ltd. by TCIL
Valuation & Transaction Advisors
Financial Advisory Services for
provinding Valuation and Fairness
Opinion on Share Swap Ratio for Merger
of TATA Teleservices India with Bharti
Airtel
Financial Advisory Services
Valuation & Financial Advisory Services
for Videocon Industries Ltd. and
Videocon Telecom Ltd. under Insolvency
& Bankruptcy Code, 2016
Financial Advisory Services
Valuation of Telecom Network and Tower
Assets of Hutchison Essar (Now
Vodafone) for Financial Reporting
purposes
Valuation & Transaction Advisors
Insolvency Resolution Professional for
Reliance Telecom Ltd. under Insolvency &
Bankruptcy Code, 2016
Insolvency Advisory Services
Valuation and Financial Advisory Services
for Assets of Aircel Ltd. / Aircel Cellular
Ltd. / Dishnet Wireless Ltd. under
Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code, 2016
Financial Advisory Services
TELESERVICES LIMITED
34.Telecom Sector
35. 35.Telecom Sector
RANGE OF SERVICES
• Business Valuation
• Valuation of Brands, Intangible Assets & Intellectual Property
• Valuation of Financial Securities, Instruments and Derivatives
• Valuation of Industrial Assets, Plant & Machinery
• Valuation of Real Estate
• Valuation of Infrastructure Assets & Specialized Assets
• Purchase Price Allocations for Mergers & Acquisitions
• Impairment Studies for Tangible Assets
• Impairment Studies for Intangible Assets & Goodwill
• Mines, Mineral Advisory and Valuation
• Valuation of ESOPs and Sweat Equity
• Valuation for Tax, Transfer Pricing and Company Law Matters
• Fairness Opinions
• Insolvency Professional Services
• Resolution Plan Preparation
• CRO Services – Chief Restructuring Officer
• Priority and Interim Funding
• Turnaround Advisory & Business Transformation
• Techno Economic Viability Studies / Feasibility Studies
• Fairness Opinions on Distress M & A
• Independent Evaluation of Restructuring Proposals
• Interim Management Services
• Transaction Structuring
• Bid Evaluation / Vetting of Resolution Plan
• Operations & Management of Stressed Companies
• Cashflow Management
• Advisor to Committee of Creditors/ Creditor Advisory
• Process Advisor
Valuation
(SEBI Registered – Category I Merchant Bank)
Restructuring
• Mergers & Acquisitions
• Transaction Structuring & Advisory
• Due Diligence – Financial, Tax & Business
• Fairness Opinions
• Corporate Finance & Advisory
• Private Equity and Venture Capital
• Debt Solutions, Syndications
• Partner Search and Joint Ventures
• Corporate Restructuring, Business Reorganization
• Strategic & Risk Advisory Services
• Technical Assurance Services
• Chartered Engineers Opinion & Certification
• Lender’s & Investor’s Engineer Services
• Project Cost Investigation and Forensic Advisory
• Project Appraisal and Monitoring
• Financial Advisory for Dispute & Litigation
• Cost Segregation
• Transfer Pricing Studies
• Reserve Fund Analysis
Investment Banking Advisory Services