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dcfval.ppt

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dcfval.ppt

  1. 1. Discounted Cashflow Valuation: Basis for Approach where CFt is the expected cash flow in period t, r is the discount rate appropriate given the riskiness of the cash flow and n is the life of the asset. Proposition 1: For an asset to have value, the expected cash flows have to be positive some time over the life of the asset. Proposition 2: Assets that generate cash flows early in their life will be worth more than assets that generate cash flows later; the latter may however have greater growth and higher cash flows to compensate.  Value of asset = CF1 (1 +r)1  CF2 (1 +r)2  CF3 (1 +r)3  CF4 (1 +r)4 .....  CFn (1 +r)n
  2. 2. Computation of Cash flow • Cash flow = After tax operating earnings + Depreciation + non cash items Operating free cash inflow less Investment in long term assets Less Investment in operating working capital Future Free Cash outflow = + after tax non operating income/cash flow + /- Decrease/increase in non operating assets
  3. 3. DCF Choices: Equity Valuation versus Firm Valuation Assets Liabilities Assets in Place Debt Equity Fixed Claim on cash flows Little or No role in management Fixed Maturity Tax Deductible Residual Claimon cash flows Significant Role in management Perpetual Lives Growth Assets Existing Investments Generate cashflows today Includes long lived (fixed) and short-lived(working capital) assets Expected Value that will be created by future investments Equity valuation: Value just the equity claim in the business Firm Valuation: Value the entire business
  4. 4. Equity Valuation Assets Liabilities Assets in Place Debt Equity Discount rate reflects only the cost of raising equity financing Growth Assets Figure 5.5: Equity Valuation Cash flows considered are cashflows fromassets, after debt payments and after making reinvestments needed for future growth Present value is value of just the equity claims on the firm
  5. 5. Equity valuvation • The value of equity is the present value of cash flows to the equity investors discounted back at the rate of return that those equity investors need to make to break even (the cost of equity).
  6. 6. Firm Valuation Assets Liabilities Assets in Place Debt Equity Discount rate reflects the cost of raising both debt and equity financing, in proportion to their use Growth Assets Figure 5.6: Firm Valuation Cash flows considered are cashflows fromassets, prior to any debt payments but after firmhas reinvested to create growth assets Present value is value of the entire firm, and reflects the value of all claims on the firm.
  7. 7. Firm Valuvation A firm includes not just the equity, but all claim holders. The cash flow to the firm is the collective cash flow that all claim holders make from the firm, and it is discounted at the weighted average of their different costs.
  8. 8. Cash Flows and Discount Rates • Suppose a firm has employed a total capital of Rs. 100 lakh( provided equally by 10percent debt and 50000 equity shares of Rs. 100 each, its cost of equity is 14 percent and its subject to corporate tax rate of 40 percent . The projected free cash flow to all investors of the firm for 5 years are given in the table Year CF to Firm( in lakhs) 1 30 2 20 3 50 4 15 5 60 Compute valuvation of firm and valuvation from perspective of equityshareholders. Assume 10 percent debt is repayable at the year end 5 and interest is paid at each year end
  9. 9. Discounted Cash Flow Valuation: The Steps • Estimate the discount rate or rates to use in the valuation – Discount rate can be either a cost of equity (if doing equity valuation) or a cost of capital (if valuing the firm) – Discount rate can be in nominal terms or real terms, depending upon whether the cash flows are nominal or real – Discount rate can vary across time. • Estimate the current earnings and cash flows on the asset, to either equity investors (CF to Equity) or to all claimholders (CF to Firm) • Estimate the future earnings and cash flows on the firm being valued, generally by estimating an expected growth rate in earnings. • Estimate when the firm will reach “stable growth” and what characteristics (risk & cash flow) it will have when it does. • Choose the right DCF model for this asset and value it.
  10. 10. Generic DCF Valuation Model Cash flows Firm: Pre-debt cash flow Equity: After debt cash flows Expected Growth Firm: Growth in Operating Earnings Equity: Growth in Net Income/EPS CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4 CF5 Forever Firm is in stable growth: Grows at constant rate forever Terminal Value CFn ......... Discount Rate Firm:Cost of Capital Equity: Cost of Equity Value Firm: Value of Firm Equity: Value of Equity DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW VALUATION Length of Period of High Growth
  11. 11. Economic Value added • EVA = NOPAT – (WACC * capital invested) • Where NOPAT = Net Operating Profits After Tax • WACC =Weighted Average Cost of Capital • Capital invested = Equity + long-term debt at the beginning of the period • and (WACC* capital invested) is also known as finance charge
  12. 12. Economic Value Added Economic Value Added (EVA) or Economic Profit is a measure based on the Residual Income technique that serves as an indicator of the profitability of projects undertaken. Its underlying premise consists of the idea that real profitability occurs when additional wealth is created for shareholders and that projects should create returns above their cost of capital
  13. 13. Problem Sales revenue 500 Less Operating costs 300 Less interest costs 12 Earnings before tax 188 Less Tax 75.2 Earnings after tax 112.8 The firms existing capital consits of Rs. 150 lakh equity funds having 15 percent cost and Rs. 100 lakh 12 percent debt. Determine economic value added during the year

Notas do Editor

  • Cash is king. A firm with negative cash flows today can be a very valuable firm but only if there is reason to believe that cash flows in the future will be large enough to compensate for the negative cash flows today. The riskier a firm and the longer you have to wait for the cash flows, the greater the cashflows eventually have to be….
  • A business and the equity in the business can be very different numbers…
    A firm like GE in 2005 had a value of $ 500 billion for its business but its equity is worth only $ 300 billion - the difference is due to the substantial debt that GE has used to fund its expansion.
    You can have valuable businesses, where the equity is worth nothing because the firm has borrowed too much….
  • The value of equity is the present value of cash flows to the equity investors discounted back at the rate of return that those equity investors need to make to break even (the cost of equity).
    In the strictest sense of the word, the only cash flow stockholders in a publicly traded firm get from their investment is dividends, and the dividend discount model is the simplest and most direct version of an equity valuation model.
  • A firm includes not just the equity, but all claim holders. The cash flow to the firm is the collective cash flow that all claim holders make from the firm, and it is discounted at the weighted average of their different costs.
  • The process is not always sequential. It may seem irrational to pick the DCF model after you have estimated the inputs, but you have to get a sense of the cash flows and growth potential before you pick a model.
  • The four pillars of value:
    Cashflows
    Potential for high growth
    Length of the high growth period (before the firm starts growing at the same rate as the economy)
    Discount rate
    Note the variations and the need for consistency:
    With equity -> Cashflows to equity - > Growth rate in net income -> Discount at the cost of equity
    With firm -> Cashflows to firm - > Growth rate in operating income -> Discount at the cost of capital

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