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HOW TO FINANCE YOUR GROWTH: A METRICS BASED APPROACH
MARTIN MACMILLAN, CEO
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 2
ABOUT POLLEN VC
MARTIN MACMILLAN, CEO & FOUNDER
Pollen VC provides a new type of growth capital for
app developers who are ready to scale
We enable developers to fund advertising by
unlocking the value in app store revenues early
Our model is a flexible and non-dilutive alternative to
equity financing, allowing developers to retail control
while growing their business
Our mission is to get start-ups to think about capital
efficiency, using the right type of funding for the
right purpose
3
Everyone knows the stories about a few apps that go
viral with no promotion.
For the 99.9% of all other apps launched, it’s necessary
to spend to acquire users.
THE REALITY IS THAT YOU
NEED TO SUPPORT YOUR
APP WITH PAID UA
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
4
Let’s start with the basics…
UNIT ECONOMICS OF PAID UA
LTV - Lifetime Value
• Expected value of that customer
over it’s lifetime, i.e. total
amount earned
• What does it mean for app
developers?
• How long is a lifetime?
CPI - Cost Per Install
• How much does it cost to acquire a
user?
• Where do I find these users?
• How do I target these users?
• When do I pay for these users?
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
5
UA HAPPINESS
$2$1
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
6
50c$1
UA MISERY
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
7
RECIPE FOR SUCCESS
Understand what
it costs to acquire
a user
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
How long before
you receive the
revenue?
The revenue
they will
generate
VS
+
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 8
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
$0.00
1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
101
111
121
131
141
151
161
171
181
191
201
211
221
231
241
251
261
271
281
291
301
311
321
331
341
351
361
PROFIT & LOSS DOES NOT
EQUAL CASH-FLOW
Days from launch
9
THE PROBLEM: PLATFORMS
ONLY PAY OUT REVENUE UP
TO 60+ DAYS AFTER YOU’VE
EARNED IT.
LAUNCH
You’re earning money from day 1
This is your money
trapped in the payment system
Platforms release
your cash…
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
10
HOW TO USE THIS TO YOUR ADVANTAGE
Unlock the value of your earnings
rather than using venture capital to
fund growth
Think of your accrued
app store earnings as an
untapped asset
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
11
LTV CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
$1.50
LTV
12
LTV CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
$1.50
LTV
365
Day max.
13
LTV CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
$1.50
LTV
365
Day max.
$1.00
CPI
14
LTV CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
$1.50
LTV
365
Day max.
$1.00
CPI
1,000
Installs daily
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 15
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
$0.00
1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
101
111
121
131
141
151
161
171
181
191
201
211
221
231
241
251
261
271
281
291
301
311
321
331
341
351
361
LET’S GET BACK TO LTV
Days from launch
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
-$100,000
-$80,000
-$60,000
-$40,000
-$20,000
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
16
NET CASH POSITION
Net Cash Position
first becomes
Positive
First App Store
payment hits bank
account
Spending $1,000/
day on ads
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 17
USING REVENUE RECYCLING
NetCashPosition
-$400,000
-$320,000
-$240,000
-$160,000
-$80,000
$0
$80,000
$160,000
$240,000
$320,000
$400,000
Weeks After Launch
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
Net Position w Revenue Recycling Net Position
-$100,000
-$80,000
-$60,000
-$40,000
-$20,000
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 18
USING REVENUE RECYCLING
NetCashPosition
-$400,000
-$320,000
-$240,000
-$160,000
-$80,000
$0
$80,000
$160,000
$240,000
$320,000
$400,000
Weeks After Launch
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
Net Position w Revenue Recycling Net Position
-$100,000
-$80,000
-$60,000
-$40,000
-$20,000
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Recycling
revenue allows
you to achieve
same UA
spend on 20%
of your
starting
budget or
spend 4x more
on paid UA
with same
budget
c.$20,000 required
c.$80,000 required
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 1919
Reinvest earned LTV
directly into advertising
Acquire more
users faster
Extract LTV
on a daily basis
A NEW WAY…
Extract your LTV
as you earn it, to fund
your advertising spend
and fuel your growth.
Keep your VC money
in the bank!
How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 20
LTV MODELLING
PollenVC is creating a set of tools using readily available metrics of
retention and ARPDAU to help developers understand and model LTV
Understand payback periods, and how to measure
Model financials based on metrics to show how much UA you can fund,
and how quickly you can grow
If your cohorts are not delivering, chop the marketing spend and
redeploy elsewhere
IF YOU WANT US TO MODEL YOUR LTV
AND CASHFLOW PLS EMAIL US!
martin@pollen.vc
@PollenVC

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How to Finance Your Growth A Metrics Based Approach - Martin Macmillan

  • 1. HOW TO FINANCE YOUR GROWTH: A METRICS BASED APPROACH MARTIN MACMILLAN, CEO
  • 2. How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 2 ABOUT POLLEN VC MARTIN MACMILLAN, CEO & FOUNDER Pollen VC provides a new type of growth capital for app developers who are ready to scale We enable developers to fund advertising by unlocking the value in app store revenues early Our model is a flexible and non-dilutive alternative to equity financing, allowing developers to retail control while growing their business Our mission is to get start-ups to think about capital efficiency, using the right type of funding for the right purpose
  • 3. 3 Everyone knows the stories about a few apps that go viral with no promotion. For the 99.9% of all other apps launched, it’s necessary to spend to acquire users. THE REALITY IS THAT YOU NEED TO SUPPORT YOUR APP WITH PAID UA How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
  • 4. 4 Let’s start with the basics… UNIT ECONOMICS OF PAID UA LTV - Lifetime Value • Expected value of that customer over it’s lifetime, i.e. total amount earned • What does it mean for app developers? • How long is a lifetime? CPI - Cost Per Install • How much does it cost to acquire a user? • Where do I find these users? • How do I target these users? • When do I pay for these users? How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
  • 5. 5 UA HAPPINESS $2$1 How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
  • 6. 6 50c$1 UA MISERY How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
  • 7. 7 RECIPE FOR SUCCESS Understand what it costs to acquire a user How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach How long before you receive the revenue? The revenue they will generate VS +
  • 8. How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 8 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $0.00 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 311 321 331 341 351 361 PROFIT & LOSS DOES NOT EQUAL CASH-FLOW Days from launch
  • 9. 9 THE PROBLEM: PLATFORMS ONLY PAY OUT REVENUE UP TO 60+ DAYS AFTER YOU’VE EARNED IT. LAUNCH You’re earning money from day 1 This is your money trapped in the payment system Platforms release your cash… How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
  • 10. 10 HOW TO USE THIS TO YOUR ADVANTAGE Unlock the value of your earnings rather than using venture capital to fund growth Think of your accrued app store earnings as an untapped asset How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach
  • 11. 11 LTV CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach $1.50 LTV
  • 12. 12 LTV CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach $1.50 LTV 365 Day max.
  • 13. 13 LTV CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach $1.50 LTV 365 Day max. $1.00 CPI
  • 14. 14 LTV CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach $1.50 LTV 365 Day max. $1.00 CPI 1,000 Installs daily
  • 15. How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 15 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $0.00 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 311 321 331 341 351 361 LET’S GET BACK TO LTV Days from launch
  • 16. How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach -$100,000 -$80,000 -$60,000 -$40,000 -$20,000 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 16 NET CASH POSITION Net Cash Position first becomes Positive First App Store payment hits bank account Spending $1,000/ day on ads
  • 17. How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 17 USING REVENUE RECYCLING NetCashPosition -$400,000 -$320,000 -$240,000 -$160,000 -$80,000 $0 $80,000 $160,000 $240,000 $320,000 $400,000 Weeks After Launch 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 Net Position w Revenue Recycling Net Position -$100,000 -$80,000 -$60,000 -$40,000 -$20,000 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16
  • 18. How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 18 USING REVENUE RECYCLING NetCashPosition -$400,000 -$320,000 -$240,000 -$160,000 -$80,000 $0 $80,000 $160,000 $240,000 $320,000 $400,000 Weeks After Launch 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 Net Position w Revenue Recycling Net Position -$100,000 -$80,000 -$60,000 -$40,000 -$20,000 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Recycling revenue allows you to achieve same UA spend on 20% of your starting budget or spend 4x more on paid UA with same budget c.$20,000 required c.$80,000 required
  • 19. How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 1919 Reinvest earned LTV directly into advertising Acquire more users faster Extract LTV on a daily basis A NEW WAY… Extract your LTV as you earn it, to fund your advertising spend and fuel your growth. Keep your VC money in the bank!
  • 20. How to Finance Your Growth: A Metrics Based Approach 20 LTV MODELLING PollenVC is creating a set of tools using readily available metrics of retention and ARPDAU to help developers understand and model LTV Understand payback periods, and how to measure Model financials based on metrics to show how much UA you can fund, and how quickly you can grow If your cohorts are not delivering, chop the marketing spend and redeploy elsewhere
  • 21. IF YOU WANT US TO MODEL YOUR LTV AND CASHFLOW PLS EMAIL US! martin@pollen.vc @PollenVC