1.
10 February 2021
GREAT IDEAS FOR STARTUPS
Or How to Say Yes

2.
2
© Numenor, 2021
THE PROBLEM (PART I)
https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/startups-founded-in-2020
Every day, the average
human generates about
6,200 thoughts.
Every day, the 7.8 billion
human residents of our
planet generate billions of
good ideas.
In any given year, if you are
an angel investor or a serial
entrepreneur, you will be
confronted with hundreds of
ideas and investment
opportunities.

3.
3
© Numenor, 2021
THE PROBLEM (PART 2)
Yet experience shows
us that most good ideas
will never be realised or
acted upon by the
people who had them.
And data show us that
50% of new businesses
fail by year 5.
https://www.bls.gov/bdm/entrepreneurship/entrepreneurship.htm

4.
4
© Numenor, 2021
THE PROBLEM (PART 3)
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/040915/how-many-startups-fail-and-why.asp
Check the
Reasons for
Failure on the
link below.
https://www.cbin
sights.com/rese
arch/startup-
failure-reasons-
top/

5.
5
© Numenor, 2021
SO OUR PROBLEM REALLY IS
GETTING TO
YES
How can we take a good idea and
launch it in the market with an
acceptable chance of success?

6.
6
© Numenor, 2021
THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF GOOD IDEAS
THERE
IS A
SHORTAGE
OF GOOD
POSSIBILITIES

7.
7
© Numenor, 2021
OUR ECONOMY IS READY FOR DISRUPTION
Tourism: 20% of GDP
Almost no real innovation in the last 15
years, especially on the B2B side.
Booking.com probably the last innovation.
Property: 17% of GDP
Zero innovation on either the consumer
or vendor side for the last 15 years.
Airbnb probably the last innovation.
Legal Services
No innovation at all.
Accounting Services
Marginal innovation in delivery; none in
process.
Healthcare
No significant innovation beyond
regulatory change (GESY) or imported
equipment.
Personal Finance / Fintech
New service delivery (e.g. forex trading) but
massive potential for innovation remains.

8.
8
© Numenor, 2021
REALITY CHECK

9.
9
© Numenor, 2021
GETTING TO YES
1. What Sets You on Fire?
2. Product Market Fit
3. Competitors
4. Defining & Defending your Product
5. Profiling your Ideal Customer
6. Market Size & Location
7. Market Access & Permission to Market
8. Testing your Product
9. Gaining your First Customer
10. Building your Team
11. Building your Capabilities
12. Finance & Costing
13. Pricing & Contracting
14. Getting Backed
15. Giving It All Up
So you have a great idea. What
else do you need to think about
in order to get to market?

10.
10
© Numenor, 2021
1. WHAT SETS YOU ON FIRE?
The first and last questions on this list measure the same quality.
If you aren’t motivated to do something beyond anything else you have done before, how will
you survive the long, hard slog to success?
How will you find energy to keep going when everything seems like a failure?
What will motivate you to put in the 12 hours days and miss weekends and holidays?
What is so important to you that you are willing to risk failure and ask your parents, friends and
relatives to contribute capital to your start-up?
PASSION DEDICATION COMMITMENT MOTIVATION
If you sound apologetic for any part of your idea,
you are not ready.

11.
11
© Numenor, 2021
2. PRODUCT MARKET FIT
James Le: https://medium.com/inside-product-management/how-to-
determine-product-market-fit-ac81780f9f82
What problem are you trying to solve?
Is your customer aware that they have a
problem?
What is the root cause of the problem?
How clearly do you understand the
problem (and the customer)?
Does your solution address the root
cause or the symptoms of the problem?
How credible is your solution?
How comprehensive is your solution?
How easy is it to implement?

12.
12
© Numenor, 2021
3. COMPETITORS
Who are your competitors?
We are in a largely oversaturated market.
Every segment has competitors.
You may have direct and indirect competitors.
You may have competitors who will enter your
segment in the future.
You will have competitors with a sub-standard
product, but with the industry connections and
the first mover advantage.
A comparison table for app pricing and
features is not a competitive analysis: it’s a
product analysis.

13.
13
© Numenor, 2021
4. DEFINING & DEFENDING YOUR PRODUCT
Can you define your solution in a
single sentence?
Can you quantify the positive benefits of
your product/solution?
Why is your product significantly better
than the competition?
What are the customer costs of
switching from your competitor to you?
How will you prevent your customer
from switching away from you in the
future?

14.
14
© Numenor, 2021
5. PROFILING YOUR IDEAL CUSTOMER
Who is your ideal customer?
Where are they located? Where are purchasing decisions made?
How are purchasing decisions made? Who has authority?
What are the basic steps and costs of customer acquisition?
How does the cost of acquisition compare to the lifetime customer revenue?
How does the cost of your solution compare to the cost of their problem?
Do they need to make a one-time or recurring purchase?
How likely is it that they will renew?
Can you prove that you have had a substantive discussion
or series of discussions with your ideal customer/s?

15.
15
© Numenor, 2021
6. MARKET SIZE AND LOCATION
Can you prove that you have verified any of this
data using primary research?
Total Available
Market
The total population of all potential customers in a
geographic market.
Beachhead
Market
A subset of the total available market that the start-up believes
it can enter and dominate successfully, prior to moving on to
other markets.
Service
Obtainable
Market
A conservative and realistic estimate of a target market that can
be reached and converted by the start-up.
The closer you can define your target market and customer profiles, the better
you can integrate this data into your sales forecast.

16.
16
© Numenor, 2021
7. MARKET ACCESS & PERMISSION TO MARKET
Can you prove that you can back up your assumptions
through actual sales discussions?
B2B
You may not be able to
market unless you pass
through multiple gatekeepers
and have credibility to
market.
B2B solutions imply a high
switching cost and are often
mission-critical. The cost of
acquisition is high.
B2C
You may have immediate
access through social media
and advertising, but you are
exposed to the widest
possible competitive
environment (and the easiest
to replicate).
B2B2C
You are marketing through
platforms (e.g. Amazon,,
Appstore, through a bank or
supermarket to a consumer)
but you need to prove yourself
across the entire value chain.

17.
17
© Numenor, 2021
8. TESTING YOUR PRODUCT
Forget launch: How much money do you need to get a working prototype to market?
How will you test that prototype with your ideal customer?
How will you test the assumptions behind your solution?
• Prototype?
• Mockup?
• Presentation?
• Survey?
If your assumptions cannot be tested until you have a physical product, then the risk behind
your product-market fit and sales forecasts is commensurately larger.

18.
18
© Numenor, 2021
9. GAINING YOUR FIRST CUSTOMER
If you come to the negotiating table with signed customers, you are 100x
more credible than the next startup.
How will you gain your first customer?
• Can you come to the table with an LoI?
• Can you offer a free service to convert a major reference?
• Can you offer a freemium service to seed the market?
Getting your first customer tests every single assumption you have made behind your sales
model, your costs of customer acquisition and your product market fit.

19.
19
© Numenor, 2021
10. BUILDING YOUR TEAM
Think beyond cost of talent acquisition:
(a) Speed and Time to Place
(b) Risk and Retention
(c) Cost and Speed of Replacement
FOUNDERS
You need to understand right
now if your co-founders are
ready to go the distance with
you.
Are they ready to sacrifice as
much as you?
Does their skill set and
mental model extend beyond
Cyprus?
STRATEGIC EXECs
You will need to find
“rainmakers” and “go-getters”
for key positions (notably
sales, coding, installation).
If these are not equity
holders, they are going to be
very expensive (and hard to
find).
OTHER TALENT
Depending on the speed of
scale and the location of sales /
operations, you will need to
rapidly identify and retail other
talent.

20.
20
© Numenor, 2021
11. BUILDING YOUR CAPABILITIES
Are you ready to make the necessary decisions?
CAPABILITY The power or ability to do something
There are several “acceleration locks” in your early development:
1. When you raise your first real funding (and you need to deliver results)
2. When you sell (or provide) your first solution (and you need to guarantee results)
3. When you need to add or part with co-founders or vital team members
How ready are you for each challenge?
Are you ready to manage growth?

21.
21
© Numenor, 2021
12. FINANCING & COSTING
Your financial model defines a range of possibilities of success
or failure of your startup idea.
Your financial model is a reality test of your business assumptions, and therefore your idea.
• Have you made realistic provisions?
• Have you explored and documented all the details?
• Do certain key ratios, e.g. cost of customer acquisition, work?
• If you are raising capital, how does it contribute towards growth?
• Are your product market fit, ideal customer acquisition process and all other elements of
your business model expressed in your financial forecast?

22.
22
© Numenor, 2021
13. PRICING & CONTRACTING
Think of how price sensitive you are in everyday purchase decisions.
Now imagine how price sensitive your customers are.
How does this affect your sales assumptions?
PRICING
You need to demonstrate a clear pricing
model for your solution.
This must be linked to a market strategy:
revenue or market share?
This is also linked to the reality of your
business assumptions.
CONTRACTING
Your contract documents need to reflect how
you will defend your solution from future
competition.
They also need to provide a service level
agreement coverage and a means of
managing liability.
How long does it take to complete a
contract? Who has the bargaining power?

23.
23
© Numenor, 2021
14. GETTING BACKED
Are you depending on external capital for growth?
If so:
• Are you willing to share decision-making on your start-up?
• Are you willing to manage and engage transparently?
• Are you ready to listen to and manage other shareholders?
• Are you prepared to manage conflicting priorities?
• Are you willing to relocate away from Cyprus if your shareholders demand it?

24.
24
© Numenor, 2021
15. THE FINAL TEST
ARE YOU READY TO
GIVE IT ALL UP?

25.
25
© Numenor, 2021
The people who are crazy
enough to think they can
change the world are the
ones who do.

26.
26
© Numenor, 2021
PHILIP AMMERMAN
Philip studied at Princeton University, Cornell University, School of Industrial and Labour
Relations, and Oxford University, Said Business School. He began his career with Kienbaum
and Partner in New York and Dusseldorf in 1991, working on large-scale strategic
organisational development projects.
In September 1995, he co-founded Navigator with two partners. Since then, he has
implemented over 180 projects in 45 countries. Since 1995, Navigator has advised
companies and governments on digital transformation, investment-led growth and
restructuring. Over € 6 billion in completed investment projects have been delivered.
Since 2010, Philip has led the Navigator Entrepreneurship Charter, a commitment to support
1 start-up or social entrepreneur between 2010 and 2020. In this capacity, Philip acts as an
early-stage angel investor and business mentor. This commitment has been extended to
2030.
In February 2018, Philip was appointed as Team Coordinator for Greece for the European
Bank for Reconstruction & Development (EBRD), and implemented 2 international advisory
projects for innovative firms in Greece.
Philip acts as regional portfolio manager for Brookstreet Equity Partners, a private equity
fund investing in innovative Greek enterprises. http://www.brookstreetequity.com/
He is a non-executive Board Member for Redfin Capital, an asset management firm. He is an
evaluator for the European Commission’s Horizon programme, and advises a range of
private equity, venture capital and investment banks world wide.
Contact Information
Email: info@navigator-consulting.com
www.navigator-consulting.com
LinkedIn: philipammerman