1.
The New Age of Politics and
Media
Lee Rainie - @lrainie
Director - Internet, Science and Technology Research
February 16, 2017
Flagler College

2.
Three digital technology revolutions in the
past generation

3.
4
First revolution – Internet (90% use it)
Broadband
1%
73%
2000 2005 2010 2016
Skews younger
More upscale by income and education
Tilts urban/suburban

4.
5
Second revolution – Mobile
29%
81%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
95% have cell phones
51% have tablet computers
Smartphones
Skews younger
A bit smaller differences by socio-economic class
Tilts urban/suburban

5.
Third revolution – Social media
5
%
69%

6.
7
67
15 13
20 16
79
31 32 29
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Facebook Pinterest Instagram LinkedIn Twitter
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%
% of internet users

7.
Big change #1) It networked people

8.
Networked Individualism
The move to looser, far-flung networks

9.
Personal networks are:
More important – trust
Differently composed – segmented,
layered

10.
Big change #2) It networked information

11.
Pew Research danah boyd
pervasive (real-time + all-time) persistent / visible
portable replicable
personal scalable
participatory searchable
linked and unlinked spreadable
COLLAPSED CONTEXTS OF COMMUNICATION

12.
Big change #3) It networked the public square

13.
More niches
More topics of
discussion (and
different “news”
agendas”)
More alliances
More arguments
More DIY work
More disclosure
More surveillance
sousveillance
coveillance

14.
More people in decision-
making spaces
crowdsourcing /
funding
More filtering
by algorithms
More evidence (but
not causation) of
everything humans do:
Love
Altruism
Brilliance
Hate
Selfishness
Stupidity

15.
Big change #4) It networked the political
ecosystem

16.
People are more personally
empowered
Easier to find like-minded allies, even
in tiny niches
Easier to raise money and mobilize
Easier to leap barriers of all kinds
Easier to mobilize (maybe
even new people)
Additive – use old methods PLUS new
ones

17.
Meanwhile, big changes occur in
political culture

18.
The political landscape of 2016
 Long-term demographic divides in partisanship
 Many – race, gender, age – long pre-dated this election
 Some – particularly education (sometimes seen as a proxy for
class) – emerged as a more potent force this cycle
 Partisan polarization guaranteed Trump a solid floor
 Deepening ideological divides by party in recent decades
 Partisan polarization not confined to policy differences,
increasingly tied to media use and it’s emotional (“affective
polarization”)
 Mood of the country in recent years increasingly
inhospitable to “continuity” candidates, more open to a

19.
The gender gap in partisan identification
% of registered voters who identify as…
Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016

20.
Non-whites remain a solidly Democratic constituency
Presidential vote preference, by race and ethnicity
Source: National
Election Pool exit
polls

21.
Wide age divide, though narrower than for Obama’s elections
Presidential vote preference, by age
Source: National
Election Pool exit
polls

22.
College grads shift to Democratic Party, as less educated voters
move to the GOP

23.
… even more pronounced among whites
% of registered voters who identify as…
Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016

24.
25www.pewresearch.org
A historically wide educational gap in 2016 preferences
Presidential vote preference, by educational attainment
Source: National Election Pool exit polls

25.
Partisan polarization

26.
More Democrats take liberal positions,
More Republicans take conservative positions
Source: 2014 Political Polarization in the American Public, 2015 Views of Government

27.
Democrats and Republicans more ideologically
divided than in the past
Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values

28.
Ideological polarization in the American public
It was 64% and 70%, respectively, in 1994!

29.
Affective polarization also much stronger now
Source: Surveys conducted 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014 and 2015.

30.
Negative stereotypes about the ‘other side’
Source: Surveys conducted Mar 2-28, 2016.

31.
Consistent liberals & conservatives
often live in different media worlds
Source: 2014 Media Polarization

32.
People want to live with others who share their
political views

33.
Meanwhile, the next technology revolution is
underway

34.
The internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet
more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill
Fourth revolution – Internet of Things, Metaverse, Virtual
Reality, Artificial Reality, Self-propelling stuff

35.
Thank you!