The Scientific Method
P r o f P e t e r C o c h r a n e O B E
w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m

S C I E N C E
U n i q u e i n h u m a n e n d e a v o u r
To b u i l d ( a n d c o n t i n u a l l y v e r i f y ) t h e
b e s t p o s s i b l e m o d e l o f o u r u n i v e r s e w i t h
t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d m e t h o d o l o g i e s t o
h a n d a t a n y g i v e n t i m e

S C I E N C E
U n i q u e i n h u m a n e n d e a v o u r
To b u i l d ( a n d c o n t i n u a l l y v e r i f y ) t h e
b e s t p o s s i b l e m o d e l o f o u r u n i v e r s e w i t h
t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d m e t h o d o l o g i e s t o
h a n d a t a n y g i v e n t i m e
WE ARE SEEKING
A DYNAMIC AND
OFT STOCHASTIC
TRuTH
THIS CONTRASts
with all belief
systems where
truth is static

Thousands of years and tens of
civilisations pursuing the same
basic goals:
1. An Elixir of Life & Immortality
2. Tr a n s m u t i n g m e t a l s i n t o g o l d
3. Finding the Philosophers Stone
of all knowledge
“A total failure for all three, but on the
j o u r n e y t h e y l a i d t h e f o u n d a t i o n s o f
basic chemistry & metallurgy +++”
Genesis 1
R a n d o m A l c h e m y

Thousands of years and tens
of civilisations pursuing the
same basic goals:
1. Appeasing The Gods
2. Predicting The Future
3. C h a r t i n g T h e S e a s o n s
4. Modelling The Heavens
“The ‘Gods’ and the ‘Future’ were a
total failure, but charting the season &
modelling the heavens saw a lot of success”
G e n e s i s 2
A n c i e n t A s t r o n o m y

Dispersed individuals and groups:
- unable to communicate & share
a t almost any distance
- ke e p i n g d i s c o v e r i e s s e c r e t f o r
c o n t r o l / f i n a n c i a l / p e r s o n a l g a i n
- l i t t l e o r n o c o r r o b o r a t i o n o f
results and no mind melding
“A very limited scale of success given the
total population of practitioners”
T H E V O I D
Wo r k i n g i n i s o l a t i o n

Virtually no distribution:
- hand written copies only
- fires, wars and sacking of libraries
- no corroboration/checking of content
- mostly locked away and unavailable
D O C U M E N T s
E x t r e m e l y l i m i t e d l i t e r a c y
Very few ancient texts survived and
what could be recovered was often
recorded in latin and latin alone

c h a i n e d
L i b r a r i e s
I m o b i l e i n f o r m a t i o n
Only available to the select few
Often controlled by librarians
who decided which books you
should be allowed to read

D I C T A T
T R U T H s
B e l i e f n o t f a c t s
C h a l l e n g i n g t h e t e a c h i n g s o f t h e
c h u r c h o r d i s r u p t i n g t h e s t a t e
i n a n y w a y w a s n o t a g o o d i d e a
f o r a n y o n e ,
b u t m o r e s o
f o r a l c h e m i s t s
p h i l o s o p h e r s
& s c i e n t i s t s
“ T h i s w a s a d o m i n a n t
m o d e f o r h u n d r e d s o f
y e a r s w i t h c h a r g e s o f
w i t c h c r a f t , b l a s p h e m y ,
a n d h e r e s y v e r y c o m m o n -
t o c u l m i n a t e i n e x e c u t i o n
d e s p i t e a n y r e c a n t i n g ”
“ O p p r e s s i o n d i d n o t s t o p
t h e m a r c h o f t h e t r u t h ,
b u t i t d i d s l o w i t d o w n b y
d r i v i n g i t u n d e r g r o u n d ”
Truly the Dark Ages
of ignorance and fear

D I C T A T
T R U T H s
B e l i e f n o t f a c t s
On every continent and in every civilisation
the repression/control of the truth has been,
and is a common factor through to today!

R E F o r m at i o n
B r e a k i n g w i t h C a t h o l i c i s m
Religions and despots have always
sought to keep their people under
control through ignorance & fear!
“ Yo u c a n ’ t n a v i g a t e & e x p l o r e t h e p l a n e t w i t h t h e
P o p e a t t h e c e n t r e o f t h e u n i v e r s e ”
“ B u i l d i n g e f f i c i e n t w e a p o n s i s i m p o s s i b l e o n t h e
b a c k o f a n y b e l i e f s y s t e m ”
“ P l u n d e r i n g & c o l o n i s i n g o t h e r c o n t i n e n t s w i t h o u t
p r o v e n f a c t s & s c i e n t i f i c k n o w l e d g e i s n o t f e a s i b l e ”

R E F o r m at i o n
B r e a k i n g w i t h C a t h o l i c i s m
Religions and despots have always
sought to keep their people under
control through ignorance & fear!
“ Yo u c a n ’ t n a v i g a t e & e x p l o r e t h e p l a n e t w i t h t h e
P o p e a t t h e c e n t r e o f t h e u n i v e r s e ”
“ B u i l d i n g e f f i c i e n t w e a p o n s i s i m p o s s i b l e o n t h e
b a c k o f a n y b e l i e f s y s t e m ”
“ P l u n d e r i n g & c o l o n i s i n g o t h e r c o n t i n e n t s w i t h o u t
p r o v e n f a c t s & s c i e n t i f i c k n o w l e d g e i s n o t f e a s i b l e ”
ANY CAUSALITY
ASSoCiated WITH
LUTHER IS MORE
LIKELY COINCIDENCE

Printing Press
A recording and sharing revolution
Johannus Guttenberg 1440
William Caxton 1450

Printing Press
A recording and sharing revolution
Johannus Guttenberg 1440
William Caxton 1450
Books remained expensive &
hard to sell at first but soon
went from the limited reach
of the church & royalty down
to the rich of society
A transition from Vellum to
Parchment to Paper reduced
costs as did other advances
The biggest initial impact was
a precursor to newspapers -
news sheets: London had >60
All this saw the rapid spread
o f d i s c o v e r i e s , i n v e n t i o n s ,
ideas and new facts
This grew to become a primary
d e f e n c e t o o l / n e m e s i s f o r
secular & religious repression
of the truth across Europe by
c o n n e c t i n g a n d e m p o w e r i n g
scientific communities.

TRANSLATION
And widespread distribution
For the first time people could read the
word of God to decide for themselves
rather than the diktats of Rome!

P R I M E M O V E R S
We a p o n s , e x p l o r a t i o n , m a t h s
A c c u r a t e n a v i g a t i o n , m a p p i n g, b a l l i s t i c s ,
k n o w l e d g e b a s e d d e s i g n , g r e a t e r
p e r f o r m a n c e a n d k i l l i n g e f f i c i e n c y, s a w
mathematics push aside the endless debate
of the philosophers based on established
ideas, arguments & conjectures of the past.
C a u s e a n d e f f e c t , p r e d i c t i o n i n s t e a d o f
guessing, formalisation and proven methods
came to the fore aided by the printing press!

S C I E N t i s t s
A r e c e p t i v e c o m m u n i t y
The spread of ideas, information,
d i s c o v e r i e s , i n v e n t i o n s , re s u l t s ,
a n d b e n e f i t s s a w t h e r i s e o f
l i t e r a c y a n d g e n e r a l e d u c a t i o n .
An acceleration in collaboration
& progress also followed in all
arenas of science along with a
m i g r a t i o n t o a g re e d s t a n d a rd s ,
m e t h o d o l o g i e s , p r o c e s s e s a n d
principles…

S i r F r a n c i s B a c o n
E x p e r i m e n t a t i o n & c o r r o b o r a t i o n a r e k e y
A w e l l e d u c a t e d a r i s t o c r a t , a n d L o r d C h a n c e l l o r
t o J a m e s I . B a c o n r e t i r e d f o l l o w i n g a c c u s a t i o n s
o f c o r r u p t i o n . H e w a s t h e n a b l e t o f o c u s o n h i s
p r i m e i n t e r e s t ; t h e p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e .
( 1 5 6 1 t o 1 6 2 6 )
Bacon’s scienti
fi
c method emphasised the use
of experimentation and interaction as the core
principles based on observation, induction and
experimentation
“The primary belief systems of the time were
religion, superstition, and folklore”

N o n - s e q u e n t i a l
A l l t h i s o c c u r r e d s e m i - r a n d o m l y
N e w t o n
F e r m a t
G a l i l e o
L e o n a r d o
A s m a l l s a m p l e o f t h i n k e r s /
e x p e r i m e n t a l i s t d r i v i n g
m a s s i v e c h a n g e i n < 2 0 0 y r s

C O N F U S I O N
S t i l l n o t w i d e l y u n d e r s t o o d
D e s p i t e > 4 0 0 y e a r s o f
t e s t i n g a n d v a l i d a t i n g
t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s o f
s c i e n c e , i t a l l r e m a i n s
u n d e r a t t a c k & s u b j e c t
t o c r i t i c i s m a n d d o u b t
b y t h o s e w e d t o b e l i e f
s y s t e m s , m y s t i c i s m , a n d
c o n s p i r a c y t h e o r i e s o n
a n a l a r m i n g s c a l e .
P a r a d o x i c a l l y , d o u b t e r s
e n j o y t h e f u l l f r u i t s o f
a t e c h - s o c i e t y f o u n d e d
& s u p p o r t e d b y m o d e r n
s c i e n c e a n d n o n e o f
t h e i r i l l f o u n d e d b e l i e f s
3,4,5G, Wifi
R e c e n t e x a m p l e s o f d i s b e l i e f i n c l u d e
t h e r a d i a t i o n d a n g e r s o f 3 , 4 , 5 G , W i f i ,
t h e C V - 1 9 d o u b t e r s a n d A n t i v a x e r s

M E A N I N G L E S S
U s e l e s s h o c u s p o c u s / c o n c e p t s
1000s of years of supposed
a b s t r a c t i o n / m o d e l s / a n c i e n t
wisdoms have never yielded
anything significant - with no
means of measuring, testing,
proving or disproving them!
Everything of this nature has
turned out to be without any
f o u n d a t i o n a n d e s s e n t i a l l y
worthless!

N o n s e n s e
N o t h i n g t r a c t a b l e h e r e
People adhering to all credos of
this kind us words like energy,
frequency, wavelength, aura,
d i m e n s i o n , z o n e , p r e s e n c e ,
ectoplasm, plasma without any
ability to define, measure, or
understand them!

N o P R O O F
P s e u d o s c i e n c e @ L a r g e
Homeopathic medicines are
diluted far more than this !
Dilution rates are typically
less than 1 part in 10EXP20
This is like dissolving a grain
of salt in a glass water bigger
than the solar system
According to the believers
the greater the dilution the
more effective the treatment!

N o P R O O F
P s e u d o s c i e n c e @ L a r g e
Homeopathic medicines are
diluted far more than this !
Dilution rates are typically
less than 1 part in 10EXP20
This is like dissolving a grain
of salt in a glass water bigger
than the solar system
According to the believers
the greater the dilution the
more effective the treatment!
ALL THIS
IS
UNPROVEN
AND
FLIES
IN
THE
FACE
OF
ALL ESTABLISHED
SCIENTIFIC
EXPERIENCE

HUMAN
ÿþ(
KNOWLEDGE
WHAT HATH BACON WROUGHT
“A l l t r u t h s a re e a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d o n c e d i s c o ve re d ”
W E a r e
n o w h e r e
Galileo Galilei 1564-1642
S o m e s e e
t h i s a s o u r e n d
g a m e : B U T I s e e i t
a s o u r f i r s t g e n e s i s w h e r e
w e b e c o m e t h e m a s t e r s o f o u r f u t u r e
Engineering of biolog
y
and new mixed mod
e
lifeforms

HUMAN
KNOWLEDGE
WHAT HATH BACON WROUGHT
“A l l t r u t h s a re e a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d o n c e d i s c o ve re d ”
W E a r e
n o w h e r e
Galileo Galilei 1564-1642
S o m e s e e
t h i s a s o u r e n d
g a m e : B U T I s e e i t
a s o u r f i r s t g e n e s i s w h e r e
w e b e c o m e t h e m a s t e r s o f o u r f u t u r e
Engineering of biolog
y
and new mixed mod
e
lifeforms
in
com
plete
con
trast
to
all
belief
system
s
our
species
en
joyed
all
this
on
the
back
of
the
SCIEN
TIFIC
M
ethod

MODERN VERSION
C l a s s i c 2 0 t h C e n t u r y Pe r s p e c t i ve
R i c h a rd F e y n m a n 1 9 6 4 A h e ro
o f t h e o re t i c a l p h y s i c s a n d t h e
q u a n t u m w o r l d / c o m p u t i n g
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw

T h e d i v i d e b e t w e e n s c i e n c e ,
e n g i n e e r i n g a n d t e c h n o l o g y,
h a s b e c o m e b l u r re d b y t h e
n e e d f o r w o r k a b l e s o l u t i o n s
Pe e r re v i e w f e e d b a c k
c o l l a b o r a t i o n a n d
c o r ro b o r a t i o n + f i e l d
o p e r a t i o n s e x p e r i e n c e
Today’s version
A m o re 2 1 s t C e n t u r y Pe r s p e c t i ve

WIDER PICTURE
N o t h i n g o p e ra t e s i n i s o l a t i o n
I n d u s t r y i n c r e a s i n g l y f u e l s s c i e n c e
a n d e n g i n e e r i n g i n c r e a t i n g
t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t g e n e r a t e m o re d a t a
a n d i n f o r m a t i o n s t re a m s
F a s t g r o w i n g k n o w l e d g e / w i s d o m p ro m o t e s ,
i n d u s t r i a l g ro w t h a c c e l e r a t e d b y H u m a n - A I
c o l l a b o r a t i o n , c re a t i v i t y & p ro b l e m s o l v i n g
A c c i d e n t a l
D I s c o v e r y
Tr i a l
&
E r r o r
S c i e n c e
&
S h a r i n g
A n a l o g u e
M o d e l l i n g
D i g i t a l
M o d e l l i n g
C A D , A I
Ro b o t i c e
3 D FA B
N a n o
B i o
S c i e n c e , e n g i n e e r i n g & t e c h n o l o g y
a re f u l l y i n t e rd e p e n d e n t a s t h e y
c o n t i n u a l l y f e e d & f u e l e a c h o t h e r

RELAY
VACUUM
TUBE
TRANSISTOR
MECHANICAL
INTEGRATED
CIRCUITS
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
More and more in a
shorter and shorter
time… compressing

RELAY
VACUUM
TUBE
TRANSISTOR
MECHANICAL
INTEGRATED
CIRCUITS
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
3D IC
s
Molecula
r
Quantu
m
Geneti
c
Biologica
l
Optical
Computin
g
Ne
w
Sensor
s
Network
s
Softwar
e
Lifeform
s
Intelligences
Moore’s
Wall??
More and more in a
shorter and shorter
time… compressing

RELAY
VACUUM
TUBE
TRANSISTOR
MECHANICAL
INTEGRATED
CIRCUITS
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
3D IC
s
Molecula
r
Quantu
m
Geneti
c
Biologica
l
Optical
Computin
g
Ne
w
Sensor
s
Network
s
Softwar
e
Lifeform
s
Intelligences
Moore’s
Wall??
More and more in a
shorter and shorter
time… compressing
EXPONENTIAL growth
ON this scale has
never been witnessed
before

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
T e c h b e g e t s m o r e t e c h
b e g e t s s c i e n c e / k n o w l e d g e
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uvUiq_jTLM

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
T e c h b e g e t s m o r e t e c h
b e g e t s s c i e n c e / k n o w l e d g e
NOTHING can be
EXPONENTIAL
FOREVER
this is a portent
of significant
change to come
COLLAPSE
MODE CHANGE
RADICAL change
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uvUiq_jTLM

Digita
l
Computin
g
Networkin
g
Sensor
s
Analogu
e
Computin
g
Sensor
s
Linear
Non-Linear Non-Linear
Futur
e
Arti
fi
cial
Life?
Biotec
h
Robotics
AI
Nanotec
h
Quantu
m
Computin
g
Quantu
m
Nan
o
Quantu
m
Bi
o
Futur
e
Cyborgs ?
N O E N D i n s i g h t
D r i v e n b y s c i e n c e & e n g i n e e r i n g
The scientific method becomes
ever more powerful embracing
new components and domains
Region of Ne
w
Mixed Mode Tec
h

SEGUAE OUT

WORKED EXAMPLE
Are we alone & special in the cosmos ?
The scientific method applied
t o o n e o f t h e b i g g e s t
questions for humanity
We start by reversing the question as a workable hypothesis
open to many forms of investigation.
Hypothesis: There are thousands of inhabited worlds!
Observation 1: All the planets and every life form are made from the
same stardust - they share the same chemistry and
molecular structures at a fundamental level
Observation 2: Not all life forms require light & oxygen; but carbon, in
contrast, may be an essential - but it is also available
throughout the cosmos as a highly stable molecule
Proof: This is a complex and challenging problem requiring more
than one method by more than one team

D r a k e s E q u at i o n
What are the probabilities & likelihoods ?
The application of logic,
maths, data, & bounded
best estimates
Analysis 1: Applying Drakes equation to estimate the probability
of life occurring & number of life supporting worlds
N = R*fpneflfifcL
Frank Donald Drake 28/5/193
0
A US astronomer/astrophysicist
involved in the search for ETI &
a founder of SETI

P r o d u c e d b y m a n y r o u n d
table sessions/diverse teams
and their best estimates
Analysis 1: Drakes estimate of the number of intelligent species
occurring within a distance R of planet earth
Proof: This is very revealing and encouraging, but it does not constitute proof, it is
merely interesting, and a guide to the potential that may be out there!
D r a k e s E q u at i o n
What are the probabilities & likelihoods ?

Scanning the sky
Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence
Searching for intelligible radio
s i g n a l s f r o m d i s t a n t s o l a r
system is a big challenge
The latest technical advance is the Allen [Paul Allen Founder of
Microsoft] Array - the
fi
rst radio telescope designed exclusively for
SETI searches - scans 1 - 15GHz from Hat Creek-Cascades 450km
North of San Francisco. A large number of relatively small dishes
extending over 1 km to provide a high-quality beam shape to minimise
unwanted terrestrial noise/interference/terrestrial signals/spoof events
.
The search software [SonATA -SETI] is implemented with enterprise
servers donated by Dell and Intel.
The SETI Institute is a not-for-pro
fi
t research organisation (incorporated 1984) for the discovery/sharing knowledge as
scienti
fi
c ambassadors to the public, the press, and the government in the "search for extraterrestrial intelligence".
Over a 36 year period there have been many false alarms but no conclusive results so far. Drakes equation indicates
that civilisations are very rare events scattered over space and time - and the heavens are vast, signals are weak - henc
e
automation is vital! 2020 represents a new era in this search effort with many new technologies and techniques…
Proof: If and when intelligible signals are detected it will be ‘interesting'-but not proof
until corroborated by many others and a communication channel is established!

Spectral Scanning
Search for chemical signs of life/intelligence
A planet’s atmosphere flags
the activities on the surface
/biological/life possibilities
Proof: If and when a promising spectral are detected it can tell us if life might be
sustained, and may be present, and if it is highly intelligent we might detect the
pollutants - it creates - BUT this is not proof ! It is but an indicator suggesting it as a
target identified by SETI and a good reason for fly-by and/or some form of visitation.

Sending invitations
Active SETI - multimode connection attempts
Who, what, where requires
s o m e R S V P m e s s a g e o r
physical visitation !
Active SETI Russia et al send radio signals/
messages to intelligent extraterrestrial lif
e
Passive SETI ALL broadcast radio/TV +
satellite signals eta + random space junk
NASAVoyager and the Pioneer plaque
represents a physical invitation to connect
Proof: A visitation would be the ultimate proof !

VIS IT ING P LANETS
Our Moon, Mars, Asteroids & Meteorites
Everything we can reach today
a p p e a r s b a r r e n , b u t w a s i t
always that way?
A trace of organics would imply that
life was/had been present somewhere
in/outside our solar system/Milky Way
A trace of organics would imply that
life was/had been present on Mars/The
Moon at some time

VIS IT ING P LANETS
Our Moon, Mars, Asteroids & Meteorites
These are heroic experiments
y e t t o y i e l d a n y s i g n i f i c a n t
evidence of life…but we are
learning more with each shot!
Asteroid rock sample ‘snatch’ Mars surface tour Mars surface drilling

VIS IT ING P LANETS
Our Moon, Mars, Asteroids & Meteorites
These are heroic experiments
y e t t o y i e l d a n y s i g n i f i c a n t
evidence of life…but we are
learning more with each shot!
SOMETIMES THE JOURNEY
turns out to be more
important than the
mission
Asteroid rock sample ‘snatch’ Mars surface tour Mars surface drilling

Conditional
Our ignorance a l imitation
We don’t know what we don’t know - and
the life chemistry of our planet may not
be the only possibility
“We may not be able to
d e t e c t o r / r e c o g n i s e a n y
r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t l i f e
f o r m - b e t h e y b a s i c o r
f a r m o re a d va n c e d t h a n
us & our technologies”
“We may consider ourselves to
be civilised and advanced, but
we could, in many respects,
s t i l l b e c o n s i d e r e d t o b e
brutal savages in the eyes of
a f a r m o re a d va n c e d E T ra c e”
They may not
choose to say
hello or visit

WARNING
B e l i e f / W a n t i n g
B e l i e v e r s i n a n y t h i n g, a n d / o r a n y o n e w a n t i n g
something to be true are immediately disqualified
as bonafide unbiased investigators -
and what they do is not science !

SEGUAE Back

Cold Does Not Exist - but and absence of heat does
Darkness Does Not Exist - but and absence of photons does
Observation
Hypothesis
Theory
Experiment
R E C A P
M e t h o d o l o g y / R i g o u r
Disagree

Cold Does Not Exist - but and absence of heat does
Darkness Does Not Exist - but and absence of photons does
Observation
Hypothesis
Theory
Experiment
Teams all over the planet try to repeat the results
with some dedicated to disproving the theory on a
continual basis - eg Relativity Theory !
R E C A P
M e t h o d o l o g y / R i g o u r
Agree
Publish
Corroboration

Cold Does Not Exist - but and absence of heat does
Darkness Does Not Exist - but and absence of photons does
Observation
Hypothesis
Theory
Experiment
Teams all over the planet try to repeat the results
with some dedicated to disproving the theory on a
continual basis - eg Relativity Theory !
This methodology has
been tried and tested over
>400 years and is responsible
for the greatest advances our
species has ever enjoyed,
but it can never deliver
100% certainty!
R E C A P
M e t h o d o l o g y / R i g o u r
Agree
Publish
Corroboration

R E M E M B E R
S ke p t i c i s m i s y o u r f r i e n d
“ Yo u a r e t h e e a s i e s t p e r s o n t o f o o l ;
b u t j u s t t r y f o o l i n g o t h e r s
- t h a t i s m u c h h a r d e r ”
“A l w a y s k e e p a n o p e n
m i n d , t h e f u n d a m e n t a l
t r u t h s a r e h a r d w o n ”
P e t e r C o c h r a n e
B T L a b s 1 9 8 5

T h a n k Y o u
www.petercochrane.com
“If we manage to see a little further, an
d
understand more clearly, it is by
standing on the shoulders of giants”
With a salute to Sir Isaac Newton