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The Scientific Method
P r o f P e t e r C o c h r a n e O B E
w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m
S C I E N C E


U n i q u e i n h u m a n e n d e a v o u r
To b u i l d ( a n d c o n t i n u a l l y v e r i f y ) t h e
b e s t p o s s i b l e m o d e l o f o u r u n i v e r s e w i t h
t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d m e t h o d o l o g i e s t o
h a n d a t a n y g i v e n t i m e
S C I E N C E


U n i q u e i n h u m a n e n d e a v o u r
To b u i l d ( a n d c o n t i n u a l l y v e r i f y ) t h e
b e s t p o s s i b l e m o d e l o f o u r u n i v e r s e w i t h
t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d m e t h o d o l o g i e s t o
h a n d a t a n y g i v e n t i m e
WE ARE SEEKING
A DYNAMIC AND
OFT STOCHASTIC


TRuTH
THIS CONTRASts


with all belief


systems where
truth is static
Thousands of years and tens of
civilisations pursuing the same
basic goals:


1. An Elixir of Life & Immortality


2. Tr a n s m u t i n g m e t a l s i n t o g o l d


3. Finding the Philosophers Stone
of all knowledge


“A total failure for all three, but on the


j o u r n e y t h e y l a i d t h e f o u n d a t i o n s o f


basic chemistry & metallurgy +++”


Genesis 1


R a n d o m A l c h e m y
Thousands of years and tens


of civilisations pursuing the


same basic goals:


1. Appeasing The Gods


2. Predicting The Future


3. C h a r t i n g T h e S e a s o n s


4. Modelling The Heavens


“The ‘Gods’ and the ‘Future’ were a


total failure, but charting the season &


modelling the heavens saw a lot of success”


G e n e s i s 2


A n c i e n t A s t r o n o m y
Dispersed individuals and groups:


- unable to communicate & share
a t almost any distance


- ke e p i n g d i s c o v e r i e s s e c r e t f o r
c o n t r o l / f i n a n c i a l / p e r s o n a l g a i n


- l i t t l e o r n o c o r r o b o r a t i o n o f
results and no mind melding


“A very limited scale of success given the
total population of practitioners”


T H E V O I D


Wo r k i n g i n i s o l a t i o n
Virtually no distribution:


- hand written copies only


- fires, wars and sacking of libraries


- no corroboration/checking of content


- mostly locked away and unavailable


D O C U M E N T s


E x t r e m e l y l i m i t e d l i t e r a c y
Very few ancient texts survived and


what could be recovered was often
recorded in latin and latin alone
c h a i n e d


L i b r a r i e s


I m o b i l e i n f o r m a t i o n
Only available to the select few
Often controlled by librarians


who decided which books you
should be allowed to read
D I C T A T


T R U T H s


B e l i e f n o t f a c t s
C h a l l e n g i n g t h e t e a c h i n g s o f t h e
c h u r c h o r d i s r u p t i n g t h e s t a t e


i n a n y w a y w a s n o t a g o o d i d e a


f o r a n y o n e ,


b u t m o r e s o


f o r a l c h e m i s t s


p h i l o s o p h e r s


& s c i e n t i s t s


“ T h i s w a s a d o m i n a n t
m o d e f o r h u n d r e d s o f
y e a r s w i t h c h a r g e s o f
w i t c h c r a f t , b l a s p h e m y ,
a n d h e r e s y v e r y c o m m o n -
t o c u l m i n a t e i n e x e c u t i o n
d e s p i t e a n y r e c a n t i n g ”


“ O p p r e s s i o n d i d n o t s t o p
t h e m a r c h o f t h e t r u t h ,
b u t i t d i d s l o w i t d o w n b y
d r i v i n g i t u n d e r g r o u n d ”


Truly the Dark Ages
of ignorance and fear
D I C T A T


T R U T H s


B e l i e f n o t f a c t s
On every continent and in every civilisation
the repression/control of the truth has been,
and is a common factor through to today!
R E F o r m at i o n


B r e a k i n g w i t h C a t h o l i c i s m
Religions and despots have always


sought to keep their people under


control through ignorance & fear!
“ Yo u c a n ’ t n a v i g a t e & e x p l o r e t h e p l a n e t w i t h t h e
P o p e a t t h e c e n t r e o f t h e u n i v e r s e ”
“ B u i l d i n g e f f i c i e n t w e a p o n s i s i m p o s s i b l e o n t h e
b a c k o f a n y b e l i e f s y s t e m ”
“ P l u n d e r i n g & c o l o n i s i n g o t h e r c o n t i n e n t s w i t h o u t
p r o v e n f a c t s & s c i e n t i f i c k n o w l e d g e i s n o t f e a s i b l e ”
R E F o r m at i o n


B r e a k i n g w i t h C a t h o l i c i s m
Religions and despots have always


sought to keep their people under


control through ignorance & fear!
“ Yo u c a n ’ t n a v i g a t e & e x p l o r e t h e p l a n e t w i t h t h e
P o p e a t t h e c e n t r e o f t h e u n i v e r s e ”
“ B u i l d i n g e f f i c i e n t w e a p o n s i s i m p o s s i b l e o n t h e
b a c k o f a n y b e l i e f s y s t e m ”
“ P l u n d e r i n g & c o l o n i s i n g o t h e r c o n t i n e n t s w i t h o u t
p r o v e n f a c t s & s c i e n t i f i c k n o w l e d g e i s n o t f e a s i b l e ”
ANY CAUSALITY


ASSoCiated WITH
LUTHER IS MORE
LIKELY COINCIDENCE
Printing Press


A recording and sharing revolution
Johannus Guttenberg 1440
William Caxton 1450
Printing Press


A recording and sharing revolution
Johannus Guttenberg 1440
William Caxton 1450
Books remained expensive &


hard to sell at first but soon
went from the limited reach
of the church & royalty down
to the rich of society


A transition from Vellum to
Parchment to Paper reduced
costs as did other advances


The biggest initial impact was
a precursor to newspapers -
news sheets: London had >60


All this saw the rapid spread
o f d i s c o v e r i e s , i n v e n t i o n s ,
ideas and new facts


This grew to become a primary
d e f e n c e t o o l / n e m e s i s f o r
secular & religious repression
of the truth across Europe by
c o n n e c t i n g a n d e m p o w e r i n g
scientific communities.
TRANSLATION


And widespread distribution
For the first time people could read the
word of God to decide for themselves
rather than the diktats of Rome!
P R I M E M O V E R S


We a p o n s , e x p l o r a t i o n , m a t h s
A c c u r a t e n a v i g a t i o n , m a p p i n g, b a l l i s t i c s ,
k n o w l e d g e b a s e d d e s i g n , g r e a t e r
p e r f o r m a n c e a n d k i l l i n g e f f i c i e n c y, s a w
mathematics push aside the endless debate
of the philosophers based on established
ideas, arguments & conjectures of the past.


C a u s e a n d e f f e c t , p r e d i c t i o n i n s t e a d o f
guessing, formalisation and proven methods


came to the fore aided by the printing press!
S C I E N t i s t s


A r e c e p t i v e c o m m u n i t y
The spread of ideas, information,
d i s c o v e r i e s , i n v e n t i o n s , re s u l t s ,
a n d b e n e f i t s s a w t h e r i s e o f
l i t e r a c y a n d g e n e r a l e d u c a t i o n .
An acceleration in collaboration
& progress also followed in all
arenas of science along with a
m i g r a t i o n t o a g re e d s t a n d a rd s ,
m e t h o d o l o g i e s , p r o c e s s e s a n d
principles…
S i r F r a n c i s B a c o n


E x p e r i m e n t a t i o n & c o r r o b o r a t i o n a r e k e y


A w e l l e d u c a t e d a r i s t o c r a t , a n d L o r d C h a n c e l l o r
t o J a m e s I . B a c o n r e t i r e d f o l l o w i n g a c c u s a t i o n s
o f c o r r u p t i o n . H e w a s t h e n a b l e t o f o c u s o n h i s
p r i m e i n t e r e s t ; t h e p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e .


( 1 5 6 1 t o 1 6 2 6 )
Bacon’s scienti
fi
c method emphasised the use
of experimentation and interaction as the core
principles based on observation, induction and
experimentation


“The primary belief systems of the time were
religion, superstition, and folklore”
N o n - s e q u e n t i a l


A l l t h i s o c c u r r e d s e m i - r a n d o m l y


N e w t o n


F e r m a t


G a l i l e o


L e o n a r d o


A s m a l l s a m p l e o f t h i n k e r s /
e x p e r i m e n t a l i s t d r i v i n g
m a s s i v e c h a n g e i n < 2 0 0 y r s
C O N F U S I O N


S t i l l n o t w i d e l y u n d e r s t o o d


D e s p i t e > 4 0 0 y e a r s o f
t e s t i n g a n d v a l i d a t i n g
t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s o f
s c i e n c e , i t a l l r e m a i n s
u n d e r a t t a c k & s u b j e c t
t o c r i t i c i s m a n d d o u b t
b y t h o s e w e d t o b e l i e f
s y s t e m s , m y s t i c i s m , a n d
c o n s p i r a c y t h e o r i e s o n
a n a l a r m i n g s c a l e .


P a r a d o x i c a l l y , d o u b t e r s
e n j o y t h e f u l l f r u i t s o f
a t e c h - s o c i e t y f o u n d e d
& s u p p o r t e d b y m o d e r n
s c i e n c e a n d n o n e o f
t h e i r i l l f o u n d e d b e l i e f s
3,4,5G, Wifi
R e c e n t e x a m p l e s o f d i s b e l i e f i n c l u d e


t h e r a d i a t i o n d a n g e r s o f 3 , 4 , 5 G , W i f i ,


t h e C V - 1 9 d o u b t e r s a n d A n t i v a x e r s
M E A N I N G L E S S


U s e l e s s h o c u s p o c u s / c o n c e p t s
1000s of years of supposed
a b s t r a c t i o n / m o d e l s / a n c i e n t
wisdoms have never yielded
anything significant - with no
means of measuring, testing,
proving or disproving them!


Everything of this nature has
turned out to be without any
f o u n d a t i o n a n d e s s e n t i a l l y
worthless!
N o n s e n s e


N o t h i n g t r a c t a b l e h e r e
People adhering to all credos of
this kind us words like energy,
frequency, wavelength, aura,
d i m e n s i o n , z o n e , p r e s e n c e ,
ectoplasm, plasma without any
ability to define, measure, or
understand them!
N o P R O O F


P s e u d o s c i e n c e @ L a r g e
Homeopathic medicines are
diluted far more than this !
Dilution rates are typically
less than 1 part in 10EXP20
This is like dissolving a grain
of salt in a glass water bigger
than the solar system
According to the believers
the greater the dilution the
more effective the treatment!
N o P R O O F


P s e u d o s c i e n c e @ L a r g e
Homeopathic medicines are
diluted far more than this !
Dilution rates are typically
less than 1 part in 10EXP20
This is like dissolving a grain
of salt in a glass water bigger
than the solar system
According to the believers
the greater the dilution the
more effective the treatment!
ALL THIS
IS
UNPROVEN


AND
FLIES
IN
THE
FACE
OF
ALL ESTABLISHED


SCIENTIFIC
EXPERIENCE
HUMAN
ÿþ( 
KNOWLEDGE
WHAT HATH BACON WROUGHT


“A l l t r u t h s a re e a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d o n c e d i s c o ve re d ”
W E a r e


n o w h e r e


Galileo Galilei 1564-1642
S o m e s e e


t h i s a s o u r e n d


g a m e : B U T I s e e i t


a s o u r f i r s t g e n e s i s w h e r e


w e b e c o m e t h e m a s t e r s o f o u r f u t u r e
Engineering of biolog
y

and new mixed mod
e

lifeforms
HUMAN


KNOWLEDGE
WHAT HATH BACON WROUGHT


“A l l t r u t h s a re e a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d o n c e d i s c o ve re d ”
W E a r e


n o w h e r e


Galileo Galilei 1564-1642
S o m e s e e


t h i s a s o u r e n d


g a m e : B U T I s e e i t


a s o u r f i r s t g e n e s i s w h e r e


w e b e c o m e t h e m a s t e r s o f o u r f u t u r e
Engineering of biolog
y

and new mixed mod
e

lifeforms
in
com
plete
con
trast


to
all
belief
system
s


our
species
en
joyed


all
this
on
the
back
of
the
SCIEN
TIFIC
M
ethod
MODERN VERSION


C l a s s i c 2 0 t h C e n t u r y Pe r s p e c t i ve
R i c h a rd F e y n m a n 1 9 6 4 A h e ro
o f t h e o re t i c a l p h y s i c s a n d t h e


q u a n t u m w o r l d / c o m p u t i n g
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw
T h e d i v i d e b e t w e e n s c i e n c e ,


e n g i n e e r i n g a n d t e c h n o l o g y,


h a s b e c o m e b l u r re d b y t h e
n e e d f o r w o r k a b l e s o l u t i o n s
Pe e r re v i e w f e e d b a c k
c o l l a b o r a t i o n a n d
c o r ro b o r a t i o n + f i e l d
o p e r a t i o n s e x p e r i e n c e
Today’s version


A m o re 2 1 s t C e n t u r y Pe r s p e c t i ve
WIDER PICTURE


N o t h i n g o p e ra t e s i n i s o l a t i o n
I n d u s t r y i n c r e a s i n g l y f u e l s s c i e n c e
a n d e n g i n e e r i n g i n c r e a t i n g
t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t g e n e r a t e m o re d a t a
a n d i n f o r m a t i o n s t re a m s
F a s t g r o w i n g k n o w l e d g e / w i s d o m p ro m o t e s ,
i n d u s t r i a l g ro w t h a c c e l e r a t e d b y H u m a n - A I
c o l l a b o r a t i o n , c re a t i v i t y & p ro b l e m s o l v i n g
A c c i d e n t a l


D I s c o v e r y
Tr i a l


&


E r r o r
S c i e n c e


&


S h a r i n g
A n a l o g u e


M o d e l l i n g
D i g i t a l


M o d e l l i n g
C A D , A I


Ro b o t i c e


3 D FA B


N a n o


B i o
S c i e n c e , e n g i n e e r i n g & t e c h n o l o g y
a re f u l l y i n t e rd e p e n d e n t a s t h e y
c o n t i n u a l l y f e e d & f u e l e a c h o t h e r
RELAY
VACUUM

TUBE
TRANSISTOR
MECHANICAL
INTEGRATED

CIRCUITS
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH


P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
More and more in a
shorter and shorter
time… compressing
RELAY
VACUUM

TUBE
TRANSISTOR
MECHANICAL
INTEGRATED

CIRCUITS
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH


P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
3D IC
s

Molecula
r

Quantu
m

Geneti
c

Biologica
l

Optical
 

Computin
g

Ne
w

Sensor
s

Network
s

Softwar
e

Lifeform
s

Intelligences
Moore’s

Wall??
More and more in a
shorter and shorter
time… compressing
RELAY
VACUUM

TUBE
TRANSISTOR
MECHANICAL
INTEGRATED

CIRCUITS
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH


P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
3D IC
s

Molecula
r

Quantu
m

Geneti
c

Biologica
l

Optical
 

Computin
g

Ne
w

Sensor
s

Network
s

Softwar
e

Lifeform
s

Intelligences
Moore’s

Wall??
More and more in a
shorter and shorter
time… compressing
EXPONENTIAL growth


ON this scale has


never been witnessed
before
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH


P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
T e c h b e g e t s m o r e t e c h
b e g e t s s c i e n c e / k n o w l e d g e
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uvUiq_jTLM
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH


P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n
T e c h b e g e t s m o r e t e c h
b e g e t s s c i e n c e / k n o w l e d g e
NOTHING can be


EXPONENTIAL


FOREVER
this is a portent


of significant


change to come
COLLAPSE


MODE CHANGE


RADICAL change
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uvUiq_jTLM
Digita
l

Computin
g

Networkin
g

Sensor
s

Analogu
e

Computin
g

Sensor
s

Linear
Non-Linear Non-Linear
Futur
e

Arti
fi
cial
 

Life?
Biotec
h

Robotics
AI
Nanotec
h

Quantu
m

Computin
g

Quantu
m

Nan
o

Quantu
m

Bi
o

Futur
e

Cyborgs ?
N O E N D i n s i g h t


D r i v e n b y s c i e n c e & e n g i n e e r i n g
The scientific method becomes
ever more powerful embracing


new components and domains
Region of Ne
w

Mixed Mode Tec
h
SEGUAE OUT
WORKED EXAMPLE


Are we alone & special in the cosmos ?
The scientific method applied
t o o n e o f t h e b i g g e s t
questions for humanity
We start by reversing the question as a workable hypothesis
open to many forms of investigation.
Hypothesis: There are thousands of inhabited worlds!
Observation 1: All the planets and every life form are made from the


same stardust - they share the same chemistry and


molecular structures at a fundamental level
Observation 2: Not all life forms require light & oxygen; but carbon, in


contrast, may be an essential - but it is also available


throughout the cosmos as a highly stable molecule
Proof: This is a complex and challenging problem requiring more
than one method by more than one team
D r a k e s E q u at i o n


What are the probabilities & likelihoods ?
The application of logic,
maths, data, & bounded
best estimates
Analysis 1: Applying Drakes equation to estimate the probability


of life occurring & number of life supporting worlds
N = R*fpneflfifcL
Frank Donald Drake 28/5/193
0

A US astronomer/astrophysicist
involved in the search for ETI &
a founder of SETI
P r o d u c e d b y m a n y r o u n d
table sessions/diverse teams
and their best estimates
Analysis 1: Drakes estimate of the number of intelligent species


occurring within a distance R of planet earth
Proof: This is very revealing and encouraging, but it does not constitute proof, it is
merely interesting, and a guide to the potential that may be out there!
D r a k e s E q u at i o n


What are the probabilities & likelihoods ?
Scanning the sky


Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence
Searching for intelligible radio
s i g n a l s f r o m d i s t a n t s o l a r
system is a big challenge
The latest technical advance is the Allen [Paul Allen Founder of
Microsoft] Array - the
fi
rst radio telescope designed exclusively for
SETI searches - scans 1 - 15GHz from Hat Creek-Cascades 450km
North of San Francisco. A large number of relatively small dishes
extending over 1 km to provide a high-quality beam shape to minimise
unwanted terrestrial noise/interference/terrestrial signals/spoof events
.

The search software [SonATA -SETI] is implemented with enterprise
servers donated by Dell and Intel.
The SETI Institute is a not-for-pro
fi
t research organisation (incorporated 1984) for the discovery/sharing knowledge as
scienti
fi
c ambassadors to the public, the press, and the government in the "search for extraterrestrial intelligence".
Over a 36 year period there have been many false alarms but no conclusive results so far. Drakes equation indicates
that civilisations are very rare events scattered over space and time - and the heavens are vast, signals are weak - henc
e

automation is vital! 2020 represents a new era in this search effort with many new technologies and techniques…
Proof: If and when intelligible signals are detected it will be ‘interesting'-but not proof
until corroborated by many others and a communication channel is established!
Spectral Scanning


Search for chemical signs of life/intelligence
A planet’s atmosphere flags


the activities on the surface


/biological/life possibilities
Proof: If and when a promising spectral are detected it can tell us if life might be
sustained, and may be present, and if it is highly intelligent we might detect the
pollutants - it creates - BUT this is not proof ! It is but an indicator suggesting it as a
target identified by SETI and a good reason for fly-by and/or some form of visitation.
Sending invitations


Active SETI - multimode connection attempts
Who, what, where requires
s o m e R S V P m e s s a g e o r
physical visitation !
Active SETI Russia et al send radio signals/
messages to intelligent extraterrestrial lif
e

Passive SETI ALL broadcast radio/TV +
satellite signals eta + random space junk
 

NASAVoyager and the Pioneer plaque
represents a physical invitation to connect
Proof: A visitation would be the ultimate proof !
VIS IT ING P LANETS


Our Moon, Mars, Asteroids & Meteorites
Everything we can reach today
a p p e a r s b a r r e n , b u t w a s i t
always that way?
A trace of organics would imply that


life was/had been present somewhere
in/outside our solar system/Milky Way
A trace of organics would imply that


life was/had been present on Mars/The
Moon at some time
VIS IT ING P LANETS


Our Moon, Mars, Asteroids & Meteorites
These are heroic experiments
y e t t o y i e l d a n y s i g n i f i c a n t
evidence of life…but we are
learning more with each shot!
Asteroid rock sample ‘snatch’ Mars surface tour Mars surface drilling
VIS IT ING P LANETS


Our Moon, Mars, Asteroids & Meteorites
These are heroic experiments
y e t t o y i e l d a n y s i g n i f i c a n t
evidence of life…but we are
learning more with each shot!
SOMETIMES THE JOURNEY


turns out to be more


important than the


mission
Asteroid rock sample ‘snatch’ Mars surface tour Mars surface drilling
Conditional


Our ignorance a l imitation
We don’t know what we don’t know - and


the life chemistry of our planet may not


be the only possibility
“We may not be able to
d e t e c t o r / r e c o g n i s e a n y
r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t l i f e


f o r m - b e t h e y b a s i c o r
f a r m o re a d va n c e d t h a n
us & our technologies”


“We may consider ourselves to
be civilised and advanced, but
we could, in many respects,
s t i l l b e c o n s i d e r e d t o b e
brutal savages in the eyes of
a f a r m o re a d va n c e d E T ra c e”


They may not
choose to say
hello or visit
WARNING


B e l i e f / W a n t i n g
B e l i e v e r s i n a n y t h i n g, a n d / o r a n y o n e w a n t i n g
something to be true are immediately disqualified
as bonafide unbiased investigators -


and what they do is not science !
SEGUAE Back
Cold Does Not Exist - but and absence of heat does


Darkness Does Not Exist - but and absence of photons does
Observation


Hypothesis


Theory


Experiment


R E C A P


M e t h o d o l o g y / R i g o u r
Disagree
Cold Does Not Exist - but and absence of heat does


Darkness Does Not Exist - but and absence of photons does
Observation


Hypothesis


Theory


Experiment


Teams all over the planet try to repeat the results
with some dedicated to disproving the theory on a
continual basis - eg Relativity Theory !
R E C A P


M e t h o d o l o g y / R i g o u r
Agree
Publish


Corroboration
Cold Does Not Exist - but and absence of heat does


Darkness Does Not Exist - but and absence of photons does
Observation


Hypothesis


Theory


Experiment


Teams all over the planet try to repeat the results
with some dedicated to disproving the theory on a
continual basis - eg Relativity Theory !
This methodology has


been tried and tested over


>400 years and is responsible


for the greatest advances our


species has ever enjoyed,


but it can never deliver


100% certainty!
R E C A P


M e t h o d o l o g y / R i g o u r
Agree
Publish


Corroboration
R E M E M B E R


S ke p t i c i s m i s y o u r f r i e n d
“ Yo u a r e t h e e a s i e s t p e r s o n t o f o o l ;
b u t j u s t t r y f o o l i n g o t h e r s


- t h a t i s m u c h h a r d e r ”
“A l w a y s k e e p a n o p e n
m i n d , t h e f u n d a m e n t a l
t r u t h s a r e h a r d w o n ”
P e t e r C o c h r a n e
B T L a b s 1 9 8 5
T h a n k Y o u
www.petercochrane.com


“If we manage to see a little further, an
d

understand more clearly, it is by
 

standing on the shoulders of giants”
With a salute to Sir Isaac Newton

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The Scientific Method

  • 1. The Scientific Method P r o f P e t e r C o c h r a n e O B E w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m
  • 2. S C I E N C E U n i q u e i n h u m a n e n d e a v o u r To b u i l d ( a n d c o n t i n u a l l y v e r i f y ) t h e b e s t p o s s i b l e m o d e l o f o u r u n i v e r s e w i t h t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d m e t h o d o l o g i e s t o h a n d a t a n y g i v e n t i m e
  • 3. S C I E N C E U n i q u e i n h u m a n e n d e a v o u r To b u i l d ( a n d c o n t i n u a l l y v e r i f y ) t h e b e s t p o s s i b l e m o d e l o f o u r u n i v e r s e w i t h t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d m e t h o d o l o g i e s t o h a n d a t a n y g i v e n t i m e WE ARE SEEKING A DYNAMIC AND OFT STOCHASTIC TRuTH THIS CONTRASts with all belief systems where truth is static
  • 4. Thousands of years and tens of civilisations pursuing the same basic goals: 1. An Elixir of Life & Immortality 2. Tr a n s m u t i n g m e t a l s i n t o g o l d 3. Finding the Philosophers Stone of all knowledge “A total failure for all three, but on the j o u r n e y t h e y l a i d t h e f o u n d a t i o n s o f basic chemistry & metallurgy +++” Genesis 1 R a n d o m A l c h e m y
  • 5. Thousands of years and tens of civilisations pursuing the same basic goals: 1. Appeasing The Gods 2. Predicting The Future 3. C h a r t i n g T h e S e a s o n s 4. Modelling The Heavens “The ‘Gods’ and the ‘Future’ were a total failure, but charting the season & modelling the heavens saw a lot of success” G e n e s i s 2 A n c i e n t A s t r o n o m y
  • 6. Dispersed individuals and groups: - unable to communicate & share a t almost any distance - ke e p i n g d i s c o v e r i e s s e c r e t f o r c o n t r o l / f i n a n c i a l / p e r s o n a l g a i n - l i t t l e o r n o c o r r o b o r a t i o n o f results and no mind melding “A very limited scale of success given the total population of practitioners” T H E V O I D Wo r k i n g i n i s o l a t i o n
  • 7. Virtually no distribution: - hand written copies only - fires, wars and sacking of libraries - no corroboration/checking of content - mostly locked away and unavailable D O C U M E N T s E x t r e m e l y l i m i t e d l i t e r a c y Very few ancient texts survived and what could be recovered was often recorded in latin and latin alone
  • 8. c h a i n e d L i b r a r i e s I m o b i l e i n f o r m a t i o n Only available to the select few Often controlled by librarians who decided which books you should be allowed to read
  • 9. D I C T A T T R U T H s B e l i e f n o t f a c t s C h a l l e n g i n g t h e t e a c h i n g s o f t h e c h u r c h o r d i s r u p t i n g t h e s t a t e i n a n y w a y w a s n o t a g o o d i d e a f o r a n y o n e , b u t m o r e s o f o r a l c h e m i s t s p h i l o s o p h e r s & s c i e n t i s t s “ T h i s w a s a d o m i n a n t m o d e f o r h u n d r e d s o f y e a r s w i t h c h a r g e s o f w i t c h c r a f t , b l a s p h e m y , a n d h e r e s y v e r y c o m m o n - t o c u l m i n a t e i n e x e c u t i o n d e s p i t e a n y r e c a n t i n g ” “ O p p r e s s i o n d i d n o t s t o p t h e m a r c h o f t h e t r u t h , b u t i t d i d s l o w i t d o w n b y d r i v i n g i t u n d e r g r o u n d ” Truly the Dark Ages of ignorance and fear
  • 10. D I C T A T T R U T H s B e l i e f n o t f a c t s On every continent and in every civilisation the repression/control of the truth has been, and is a common factor through to today!
  • 11. R E F o r m at i o n B r e a k i n g w i t h C a t h o l i c i s m Religions and despots have always sought to keep their people under control through ignorance & fear! “ Yo u c a n ’ t n a v i g a t e & e x p l o r e t h e p l a n e t w i t h t h e P o p e a t t h e c e n t r e o f t h e u n i v e r s e ” “ B u i l d i n g e f f i c i e n t w e a p o n s i s i m p o s s i b l e o n t h e b a c k o f a n y b e l i e f s y s t e m ” “ P l u n d e r i n g & c o l o n i s i n g o t h e r c o n t i n e n t s w i t h o u t p r o v e n f a c t s & s c i e n t i f i c k n o w l e d g e i s n o t f e a s i b l e ”
  • 12. R E F o r m at i o n B r e a k i n g w i t h C a t h o l i c i s m Religions and despots have always sought to keep their people under control through ignorance & fear! “ Yo u c a n ’ t n a v i g a t e & e x p l o r e t h e p l a n e t w i t h t h e P o p e a t t h e c e n t r e o f t h e u n i v e r s e ” “ B u i l d i n g e f f i c i e n t w e a p o n s i s i m p o s s i b l e o n t h e b a c k o f a n y b e l i e f s y s t e m ” “ P l u n d e r i n g & c o l o n i s i n g o t h e r c o n t i n e n t s w i t h o u t p r o v e n f a c t s & s c i e n t i f i c k n o w l e d g e i s n o t f e a s i b l e ” ANY CAUSALITY ASSoCiated WITH LUTHER IS MORE LIKELY COINCIDENCE
  • 13. Printing Press A recording and sharing revolution Johannus Guttenberg 1440 William Caxton 1450
  • 14. Printing Press A recording and sharing revolution Johannus Guttenberg 1440 William Caxton 1450 Books remained expensive & hard to sell at first but soon went from the limited reach of the church & royalty down to the rich of society A transition from Vellum to Parchment to Paper reduced costs as did other advances The biggest initial impact was a precursor to newspapers - news sheets: London had >60 All this saw the rapid spread o f d i s c o v e r i e s , i n v e n t i o n s , ideas and new facts This grew to become a primary d e f e n c e t o o l / n e m e s i s f o r secular & religious repression of the truth across Europe by c o n n e c t i n g a n d e m p o w e r i n g scientific communities.
  • 15. TRANSLATION And widespread distribution For the first time people could read the word of God to decide for themselves rather than the diktats of Rome!
  • 16. P R I M E M O V E R S We a p o n s , e x p l o r a t i o n , m a t h s A c c u r a t e n a v i g a t i o n , m a p p i n g, b a l l i s t i c s , k n o w l e d g e b a s e d d e s i g n , g r e a t e r p e r f o r m a n c e a n d k i l l i n g e f f i c i e n c y, s a w mathematics push aside the endless debate of the philosophers based on established ideas, arguments & conjectures of the past. C a u s e a n d e f f e c t , p r e d i c t i o n i n s t e a d o f guessing, formalisation and proven methods came to the fore aided by the printing press!
  • 17. S C I E N t i s t s A r e c e p t i v e c o m m u n i t y The spread of ideas, information, d i s c o v e r i e s , i n v e n t i o n s , re s u l t s , a n d b e n e f i t s s a w t h e r i s e o f l i t e r a c y a n d g e n e r a l e d u c a t i o n . An acceleration in collaboration & progress also followed in all arenas of science along with a m i g r a t i o n t o a g re e d s t a n d a rd s , m e t h o d o l o g i e s , p r o c e s s e s a n d principles…
  • 18. S i r F r a n c i s B a c o n E x p e r i m e n t a t i o n & c o r r o b o r a t i o n a r e k e y A w e l l e d u c a t e d a r i s t o c r a t , a n d L o r d C h a n c e l l o r t o J a m e s I . B a c o n r e t i r e d f o l l o w i n g a c c u s a t i o n s o f c o r r u p t i o n . H e w a s t h e n a b l e t o f o c u s o n h i s p r i m e i n t e r e s t ; t h e p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e . ( 1 5 6 1 t o 1 6 2 6 ) Bacon’s scienti fi c method emphasised the use of experimentation and interaction as the core principles based on observation, induction and experimentation “The primary belief systems of the time were religion, superstition, and folklore”
  • 19. N o n - s e q u e n t i a l A l l t h i s o c c u r r e d s e m i - r a n d o m l y N e w t o n F e r m a t G a l i l e o L e o n a r d o A s m a l l s a m p l e o f t h i n k e r s / e x p e r i m e n t a l i s t d r i v i n g m a s s i v e c h a n g e i n < 2 0 0 y r s
  • 20. C O N F U S I O N S t i l l n o t w i d e l y u n d e r s t o o d D e s p i t e > 4 0 0 y e a r s o f t e s t i n g a n d v a l i d a t i n g t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s o f s c i e n c e , i t a l l r e m a i n s u n d e r a t t a c k & s u b j e c t t o c r i t i c i s m a n d d o u b t b y t h o s e w e d t o b e l i e f s y s t e m s , m y s t i c i s m , a n d c o n s p i r a c y t h e o r i e s o n a n a l a r m i n g s c a l e . P a r a d o x i c a l l y , d o u b t e r s e n j o y t h e f u l l f r u i t s o f a t e c h - s o c i e t y f o u n d e d & s u p p o r t e d b y m o d e r n s c i e n c e a n d n o n e o f t h e i r i l l f o u n d e d b e l i e f s 3,4,5G, Wifi R e c e n t e x a m p l e s o f d i s b e l i e f i n c l u d e t h e r a d i a t i o n d a n g e r s o f 3 , 4 , 5 G , W i f i , t h e C V - 1 9 d o u b t e r s a n d A n t i v a x e r s
  • 21. M E A N I N G L E S S U s e l e s s h o c u s p o c u s / c o n c e p t s 1000s of years of supposed a b s t r a c t i o n / m o d e l s / a n c i e n t wisdoms have never yielded anything significant - with no means of measuring, testing, proving or disproving them! Everything of this nature has turned out to be without any f o u n d a t i o n a n d e s s e n t i a l l y worthless!
  • 22. N o n s e n s e N o t h i n g t r a c t a b l e h e r e People adhering to all credos of this kind us words like energy, frequency, wavelength, aura, d i m e n s i o n , z o n e , p r e s e n c e , ectoplasm, plasma without any ability to define, measure, or understand them!
  • 23. N o P R O O F P s e u d o s c i e n c e @ L a r g e Homeopathic medicines are diluted far more than this ! Dilution rates are typically less than 1 part in 10EXP20 This is like dissolving a grain of salt in a glass water bigger than the solar system According to the believers the greater the dilution the more effective the treatment!
  • 24. N o P R O O F P s e u d o s c i e n c e @ L a r g e Homeopathic medicines are diluted far more than this ! Dilution rates are typically less than 1 part in 10EXP20 This is like dissolving a grain of salt in a glass water bigger than the solar system According to the believers the greater the dilution the more effective the treatment! ALL THIS IS UNPROVEN AND FLIES IN THE FACE OF ALL ESTABLISHED SCIENTIFIC EXPERIENCE
  • 25. HUMAN ÿþ( KNOWLEDGE WHAT HATH BACON WROUGHT “A l l t r u t h s a re e a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d o n c e d i s c o ve re d ” W E a r e n o w h e r e Galileo Galilei 1564-1642 S o m e s e e t h i s a s o u r e n d g a m e : B U T I s e e i t a s o u r f i r s t g e n e s i s w h e r e w e b e c o m e t h e m a s t e r s o f o u r f u t u r e Engineering of biolog y and new mixed mod e lifeforms
  • 26. HUMAN 
 KNOWLEDGE WHAT HATH BACON WROUGHT “A l l t r u t h s a re e a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d o n c e d i s c o ve re d ” W E a r e n o w h e r e Galileo Galilei 1564-1642 S o m e s e e t h i s a s o u r e n d g a m e : B U T I s e e i t a s o u r f i r s t g e n e s i s w h e r e w e b e c o m e t h e m a s t e r s o f o u r f u t u r e Engineering of biolog y and new mixed mod e lifeforms in com plete con trast to all belief system s our species en joyed all this on the back of the SCIEN TIFIC M ethod
  • 27. MODERN VERSION C l a s s i c 2 0 t h C e n t u r y Pe r s p e c t i ve R i c h a rd F e y n m a n 1 9 6 4 A h e ro o f t h e o re t i c a l p h y s i c s a n d t h e q u a n t u m w o r l d / c o m p u t i n g www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw
  • 28. T h e d i v i d e b e t w e e n s c i e n c e , e n g i n e e r i n g a n d t e c h n o l o g y, h a s b e c o m e b l u r re d b y t h e n e e d f o r w o r k a b l e s o l u t i o n s Pe e r re v i e w f e e d b a c k c o l l a b o r a t i o n a n d c o r ro b o r a t i o n + f i e l d o p e r a t i o n s e x p e r i e n c e Today’s version A m o re 2 1 s t C e n t u r y Pe r s p e c t i ve
  • 29. WIDER PICTURE N o t h i n g o p e ra t e s i n i s o l a t i o n I n d u s t r y i n c r e a s i n g l y f u e l s s c i e n c e a n d e n g i n e e r i n g i n c r e a t i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t g e n e r a t e m o re d a t a a n d i n f o r m a t i o n s t re a m s F a s t g r o w i n g k n o w l e d g e / w i s d o m p ro m o t e s , i n d u s t r i a l g ro w t h a c c e l e r a t e d b y H u m a n - A I c o l l a b o r a t i o n , c re a t i v i t y & p ro b l e m s o l v i n g A c c i d e n t a l D I s c o v e r y Tr i a l & E r r o r S c i e n c e & S h a r i n g A n a l o g u e M o d e l l i n g D i g i t a l M o d e l l i n g C A D , A I Ro b o t i c e 3 D FA B N a n o B i o S c i e n c e , e n g i n e e r i n g & t e c h n o l o g y a re f u l l y i n t e rd e p e n d e n t a s t h e y c o n t i n u a l l y f e e d & f u e l e a c h o t h e r
  • 30. RELAY VACUUM TUBE TRANSISTOR MECHANICAL INTEGRATED CIRCUITS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n More and more in a shorter and shorter time… compressing
  • 31. RELAY VACUUM TUBE TRANSISTOR MECHANICAL INTEGRATED CIRCUITS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n 3D IC s Molecula r Quantu m Geneti c Biologica l Optical Computin g Ne w Sensor s Network s Softwar e Lifeform s Intelligences Moore’s Wall?? More and more in a shorter and shorter time… compressing
  • 32. RELAY VACUUM TUBE TRANSISTOR MECHANICAL INTEGRATED CIRCUITS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n 3D IC s Molecula r Quantu m Geneti c Biologica l Optical Computin g Ne w Sensor s Network s Softwar e Lifeform s Intelligences Moore’s Wall?? More and more in a shorter and shorter time… compressing EXPONENTIAL growth ON this scale has never been witnessed before
  • 33. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n T e c h b e g e t s m o r e t e c h b e g e t s s c i e n c e / k n o w l e d g e www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uvUiq_jTLM
  • 34. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH P o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k / f o r w a r d a c c e l e r a t i o n T e c h b e g e t s m o r e t e c h b e g e t s s c i e n c e / k n o w l e d g e NOTHING can be EXPONENTIAL FOREVER this is a portent of significant change to come COLLAPSE MODE CHANGE RADICAL change www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uvUiq_jTLM
  • 35. Digita l Computin g Networkin g Sensor s Analogu e Computin g Sensor s Linear Non-Linear Non-Linear Futur e Arti fi cial Life? Biotec h Robotics AI Nanotec h Quantu m Computin g Quantu m Nan o Quantu m Bi o Futur e Cyborgs ? N O E N D i n s i g h t D r i v e n b y s c i e n c e & e n g i n e e r i n g The scientific method becomes ever more powerful embracing new components and domains Region of Ne w Mixed Mode Tec h
  • 37. WORKED EXAMPLE Are we alone & special in the cosmos ? The scientific method applied t o o n e o f t h e b i g g e s t questions for humanity We start by reversing the question as a workable hypothesis open to many forms of investigation. Hypothesis: There are thousands of inhabited worlds! Observation 1: All the planets and every life form are made from the same stardust - they share the same chemistry and molecular structures at a fundamental level Observation 2: Not all life forms require light & oxygen; but carbon, in contrast, may be an essential - but it is also available throughout the cosmos as a highly stable molecule Proof: This is a complex and challenging problem requiring more than one method by more than one team
  • 38. D r a k e s E q u at i o n What are the probabilities & likelihoods ? The application of logic, maths, data, & bounded best estimates Analysis 1: Applying Drakes equation to estimate the probability of life occurring & number of life supporting worlds N = R*fpneflfifcL Frank Donald Drake 28/5/193 0 A US astronomer/astrophysicist involved in the search for ETI & a founder of SETI
  • 39. P r o d u c e d b y m a n y r o u n d table sessions/diverse teams and their best estimates Analysis 1: Drakes estimate of the number of intelligent species occurring within a distance R of planet earth Proof: This is very revealing and encouraging, but it does not constitute proof, it is merely interesting, and a guide to the potential that may be out there! D r a k e s E q u at i o n What are the probabilities & likelihoods ?
  • 40. Scanning the sky Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence Searching for intelligible radio s i g n a l s f r o m d i s t a n t s o l a r system is a big challenge The latest technical advance is the Allen [Paul Allen Founder of Microsoft] Array - the fi rst radio telescope designed exclusively for SETI searches - scans 1 - 15GHz from Hat Creek-Cascades 450km North of San Francisco. A large number of relatively small dishes extending over 1 km to provide a high-quality beam shape to minimise unwanted terrestrial noise/interference/terrestrial signals/spoof events . The search software [SonATA -SETI] is implemented with enterprise servers donated by Dell and Intel. The SETI Institute is a not-for-pro fi t research organisation (incorporated 1984) for the discovery/sharing knowledge as scienti fi c ambassadors to the public, the press, and the government in the "search for extraterrestrial intelligence". Over a 36 year period there have been many false alarms but no conclusive results so far. Drakes equation indicates that civilisations are very rare events scattered over space and time - and the heavens are vast, signals are weak - henc e automation is vital! 2020 represents a new era in this search effort with many new technologies and techniques… Proof: If and when intelligible signals are detected it will be ‘interesting'-but not proof until corroborated by many others and a communication channel is established!
  • 41. Spectral Scanning Search for chemical signs of life/intelligence A planet’s atmosphere flags the activities on the surface /biological/life possibilities Proof: If and when a promising spectral are detected it can tell us if life might be sustained, and may be present, and if it is highly intelligent we might detect the pollutants - it creates - BUT this is not proof ! It is but an indicator suggesting it as a target identified by SETI and a good reason for fly-by and/or some form of visitation.
  • 42. Sending invitations Active SETI - multimode connection attempts Who, what, where requires s o m e R S V P m e s s a g e o r physical visitation ! Active SETI Russia et al send radio signals/ messages to intelligent extraterrestrial lif e Passive SETI ALL broadcast radio/TV + satellite signals eta + random space junk NASAVoyager and the Pioneer plaque represents a physical invitation to connect Proof: A visitation would be the ultimate proof !
  • 43. VIS IT ING P LANETS Our Moon, Mars, Asteroids & Meteorites Everything we can reach today a p p e a r s b a r r e n , b u t w a s i t always that way? A trace of organics would imply that life was/had been present somewhere in/outside our solar system/Milky Way A trace of organics would imply that life was/had been present on Mars/The Moon at some time
  • 44. VIS IT ING P LANETS Our Moon, Mars, Asteroids & Meteorites These are heroic experiments y e t t o y i e l d a n y s i g n i f i c a n t evidence of life…but we are learning more with each shot! Asteroid rock sample ‘snatch’ Mars surface tour Mars surface drilling
  • 45. VIS IT ING P LANETS Our Moon, Mars, Asteroids & Meteorites These are heroic experiments y e t t o y i e l d a n y s i g n i f i c a n t evidence of life…but we are learning more with each shot! SOMETIMES THE JOURNEY turns out to be more important than the mission Asteroid rock sample ‘snatch’ Mars surface tour Mars surface drilling
  • 46. Conditional Our ignorance a l imitation We don’t know what we don’t know - and the life chemistry of our planet may not be the only possibility “We may not be able to d e t e c t o r / r e c o g n i s e a n y r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t l i f e f o r m - b e t h e y b a s i c o r f a r m o re a d va n c e d t h a n us & our technologies” “We may consider ourselves to be civilised and advanced, but we could, in many respects, s t i l l b e c o n s i d e r e d t o b e brutal savages in the eyes of a f a r m o re a d va n c e d E T ra c e” They may not choose to say hello or visit
  • 47. WARNING B e l i e f / W a n t i n g B e l i e v e r s i n a n y t h i n g, a n d / o r a n y o n e w a n t i n g something to be true are immediately disqualified as bonafide unbiased investigators - and what they do is not science !
  • 49. Cold Does Not Exist - but and absence of heat does Darkness Does Not Exist - but and absence of photons does Observation Hypothesis Theory Experiment R E C A P M e t h o d o l o g y / R i g o u r Disagree
  • 50. Cold Does Not Exist - but and absence of heat does Darkness Does Not Exist - but and absence of photons does Observation Hypothesis Theory Experiment Teams all over the planet try to repeat the results with some dedicated to disproving the theory on a continual basis - eg Relativity Theory ! R E C A P M e t h o d o l o g y / R i g o u r Agree Publish Corroboration
  • 51. Cold Does Not Exist - but and absence of heat does Darkness Does Not Exist - but and absence of photons does Observation Hypothesis Theory Experiment Teams all over the planet try to repeat the results with some dedicated to disproving the theory on a continual basis - eg Relativity Theory ! This methodology has been tried and tested over >400 years and is responsible for the greatest advances our species has ever enjoyed, but it can never deliver 100% certainty! R E C A P M e t h o d o l o g y / R i g o u r Agree Publish Corroboration
  • 52. R E M E M B E R S ke p t i c i s m i s y o u r f r i e n d “ Yo u a r e t h e e a s i e s t p e r s o n t o f o o l ; b u t j u s t t r y f o o l i n g o t h e r s - t h a t i s m u c h h a r d e r ” “A l w a y s k e e p a n o p e n m i n d , t h e f u n d a m e n t a l t r u t h s a r e h a r d w o n ” P e t e r C o c h r a n e B T L a b s 1 9 8 5
  • 53. T h a n k Y o u www.petercochrane.com “If we manage to see a little further, an d understand more clearly, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants” With a salute to Sir Isaac Newton