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Fibre broadband futures

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Since 1986 a global debate has raged on copper or fibre in the local loop, and despite all the evidence the copper heads have pursued a path of survival at any cost with outrageous claims of what they can deliver. With claims of ‘up-to’ download speeds and homes passed (not connected), and crosstalk induced asymmetry they have never delivered what was said on the tin. And worst, with great temerity they insist on dictating to customers as to the bandwidth they really need.

We have now (probably) reached a peak of the lunacy with FTTCabinet/Kerb and pole top G.Fast developers claiming speeds of 1,000Mbit/s delivered. They can no more deliver such speeds than 10Mbit/s unless it is over impractically short spans. You can deliver 10Gbit/s over 5m of twisted pair or 100Gbit/s over 1m, but it aint of much practical use. In contrast optical fibre can deliver 1, 10, 100 Gbit/s over 100km using <10% of the energy demanded by copper.

So in November 2015 I attended my 100th conference/seminar/meeting on the topic to explain that the world is now bifurcating into those with Gbit/s fibre in the local loop and those who are sticking with copper. City and community wide FTTH is rolling out in a frenzy of frustration with the incumbent telco copperheads who continue their futile quest to squeeze the last micro-gram out of their 150 year old technologies. Only fibre is green, only fibre is future proof, only fibre is economic, and only fibre can support future business, Cloud Computing, The IoT, Smart Cities, and the 3,4,5G infill needed into the future.

It is all obvious, but here we go again! Will the UK be a world leader or laggard, in the first division, or at the back of the pack? There is a lot at stake. The first to roll out FTTH was BY in 1990, but government ignorance saw the program closed down and since then the GDP has suffered with lost business and the emigration of young start ups. But all that is insignificant compared with what is to come!

The easiest and most sensible route out of the ‘gotcha’ is to let the companies do as they wish, but empower towns and cities to install dark fibre nets, and to provide assistive funding to villages and communities to DIY Fibre. This is happening by default, but it needs to be accelerated by a modest capital investment.

Publicada em: Tecnologia
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Fibre broadband futures

  1. 1. F i b r e B R O A D B A N D f u t u r es T h e a r t o f t h e p o s s i b l e / n e c e s s a r y P e t e r C o c h r a n e cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org Green Secure Available Adaptable Future Proof People Sparse Fixed & Mobile People & Things Transitory & Stable Resilient & Reliable
  2. 2. N E T F R I C T I O N C a p a c i t y a n d c o n n e c t i v i t y d e f i n e n e t w o r k l o s s e s t h a t u l t i m a t e l y i m p a c t t h e G D P Poor infrastructure ALWAYS signifies a poor economy
  3. 3. NET TRAFFIC Growth 2000 - 2015 Exponential and no sign of slowing - x 2 < 18 months >99% of global traffic transported by optical fibre - the only medium capable… ..international, national, regional, local networks
  4. 4. <5% of net traffic is by 3 and 4G connection - wifi ~ 50%, LAN ~ 45% Voice Data Mobile Communication PB/(Month-Mese) M O B I L E 2000 - 2015 More mobile (5G) can only be realised through more optical fibre in the local loop…. …open 3,4,5G and wifi at the end of every FTTP circuit is essential for the IoT and full mobility…
  5. 5. A P P D OW N L O A DS - B i l l i o n s
  7. 7. UK IS NOT A GLOBAL LEADER “UK a long way south”
  8. 8. UK IS NOT A GLOBAL LEADER UK And in the middle of the EU pack!
  9. 9. ~ 46 % of global economic output ($32.3T) can benefit from the Industrial Internet Why is the net Important ? F u t u r e p r o s p e r i t y w i l l b e d e f i n e d b y b a n d w i d t h Education Awareness Healthcare Science Engineering Technology Creativity Invention Sharing Design Production Dleivery Logistics Support After Care Green +++++ ++++++
  10. 10. ~ 46 % of global economic output ($32.3T) can benefit from the Industrial Internet Why is the net Important ? F u t u r e p r o s p e r i t y w i l l b e d e f i n e d b y b a n d w i d t h Education Awareness Healthcare Science Engineering Technology Creativity Invention Sharing Design Production Dleivery Logistics Support After Care Green +++++ ++++++ After investing in a visionary Gbit/s network, the City of Chattanooga has transformed into a regional center for technology and innovation. It is attracting entrepreneurs and technologists from around the country and boasts new business incubators and state-of-the-art public facilities. Chattanooga has gone from hosting zero venture capital to at least five organized funds with investable capital.
  11. 11. exponential RISE Bandwidth Demand outstrips supply Netcos continue to ask the same dumb questions - why would anyone want :- • 64kbit/s • 256kbit/s • 1Mbit/s • 10Mbit/s • 100Mbit/s • 1000Mbit/s • 10,000Mbit/s ...and what would they use it for ? CustomerDemand Available BroadBand
  12. 12. So what of WIRELESS You cannot defeat the laws of physics More towers (>>10x) are unacceptable Universal coverage needs something new 3, 4, 5G cannot supply by a BIG margin <5% of net traffic is by 3 and 4G connection - wifi ~ 50%, LAN ~ 45% …open 3,4,5G and wifi at the end of every FTTP circuit is essential for the IoT and full mobility…
  13. 13. Symmetric Asymmetric l e a d e r s & L a g g a r ds ‘UpTo’ and ‘Homes Passed’ culture predominates ‘Actually Delivered’ and ‘Homes Connected’ are predominant… W h e r e a r e t h e w o r l d l e a d e r s h e a d i n g
  14. 14. H E g e ts i t ! A n d h a s a n a t i o n a l p l a n T h e f u n d i n g o f c i t i e s a n d c o m m u n i t i e s t o D I Y F T T H / P / B @ 1 G b i t / s t o a t t r a c t n e w b u s i n e s s a n d n e w s t a r t s t o r e j u v i n a t e t h e e c o n o m i e s o f f a i l e d a r e a s
  15. 15. o b a m a o n t h e i n t e r N E T S e e s E U c u l t u r e a s i n n o v a t i o n a n d c h a n g e a v e r s e "Our companies have created it, expanded it, perfected it in ways that they (Europe) can’t compete,"
  16. 16. t h e u s a v i e w Result of and academic analysis 27 October 2015 Bhaskar Chakravorti and Ravi Shankar Chaturvedi Europe has a digital crisis that has severe consequences for their global competitiveness. In the ‘Stand Out Category’ of the Global Digital Evolution Index….. …only Switzerland, Ireland, and Estonia, made it! continent is in the midst of a “digital recession.” Do we really believe that the UK will become a world leader from the back of the pack ??
  17. 17. If you own an old telephone network every new opportunity looks like an old network upgrade with bigger and better routers…time after time after time… c o p p e r h e a d s Winning with 150 year old technology
  18. 18. copper reality W h a t yo u g e t i s n’t t h e p ro m i s e As more users load the same cable it get’s progressive worse whilst still satisfying the ‘Up To’ Promise This situation is not going to improve or get any better unless we manage to change the laws of physics! D o w n l o a d O n l y U p l o a d ~ 1 0 %
  19. 19. Every £1Bn spent on the past… Sees us £2Bn further away from the future ! U K I nvest m e nt
  20. 20. Fault Prone Cloud Killing E n e rgy h u n gry Super Slo w 50% of all are due to me ! Faults Future Limiting Reverse gear Loved by vandals Big and ugly Hated by councils Anti-GreenUnsustainable
  21. 21. IM IoT TXT B2B C2B C2C eMail TeleCare eTrading Telephony TeleSurgery TeleTraining TeleMedicine Tele Education TeleMaintenance Audio Conferencing Collaborative Supply Collaborative Design Collaborative Games Collaborative Working Collaborative Farming Collaborative Research Collaborative Production Broadcast TV Broadcast Radio Video on Demand Audio on Demand Music on demand TeleInspection TeleControl ???? Symmetric An initial ‘Straw Man’ listing Peter Cochrane 1/9/15 Collaborative Computing Collaborative Manufacture 3D Design & Manufacture Sustainable Supply Chains Sustainable Production Sustainable Recycling Distributed Intelligence Distributed Computing Video Conferencing Social Networking Virtual Computing Cloud Computing Sensor Networks Logistics Control Home Working Mobile Futures Virtual Storage Photo Albums Video Albums Virtual Office Smart Cities ???? 21C network services Asymmetric IM & TXT et al are stuck in a bandwidth limiting time warp and so are many other services unable to upgraded! The love of copper lost the UK a £3Bn computer gaming industry (+++) to SEA due to the lack of bandwidth and connectivity Copper cables suffer from crosstalk and high attenuation that renders the very expensive and asymmetric
  22. 22. •74% of digital companies operate outside of London •Digital job growth to outperform all other categories by 2020 •1.46M people (7.5%) of workforce employed in the digital industries •Highest rates of digital employment: London, Bristol & Bath, Reading, Manchester •Highest Average Co Turnover: Manchester, Belfast, Sheffield, London and South Wales •Highest digital Co density: Brighton, Hove, London, Reading, Edinburgh, Cambridge •Fastest growth: Liverpool, London, Belfast, Manchester, Bournemouth, Brighton, Hove, South Wales, Bristol, Bath UK DIGITAL ECONOMY Extremely diverse, distributed and in dire need
  23. 23. IoT Smart Cities Cloud Computing Leading Edge Start Ups Sustainable Communities Competitive Economy Enabled Workforce Improved Mobility Tele-education Telemedicine N O F T T P C A S U A LT I ES Industry and Institutions Frozen out of markets Emigration of the talented and capable GDP limited and progressively declining
  24. 24. f a r m e r s D I Y J F D I a n d C a n D o C u l t u r e DIY Community Broadband Wins FTTP aint rocket science >500 miles laid and growing!
  25. 25. J e r s e y t e l c o transformation •1Gbit/s bi-directional •100% ducted - no overhead •WiFi + 3G in every terminal •Future proof and eco friendly •Reduced Opex, Capex, Fault rates •Profitability improved within 12 months •Self funded + copper, lead, plastic recovery •EU leading commercial community •Island attracting new business •FTTH/O/P - No Copper No Cabinets
  26. 26. The world leaders are mandating and building FTTH Gbit/s networks for today and into the future - 1Gbit/s is the base rate/starting point T I M E TO C O N S I D E R A N D T H I N K Management by BS & misinformation is dangerous, damaging, big negative The world laggards are hanging onto their 150 year old copper platforms and misguidedly building unreliable and non-ecological solutions that can never deliver on yesterdays demand let alone todays or that of the near future
  27. 27. A Tyranny of Propaganda Progressively Displacing Evidence and Wisdom T I M E TO C O N S I D E R A N D T H I N K If incumbents dominate a market then all competition and innovation ceases It might work in PR and politics but in technology and economics it is fatal !!
  28. 28. A Tyranny of TruthTo Displace a Warped Market Model T I M E TO C O N S I D E R A N D T H I N K The UK needs a real competitive landscape with freedom to be different Let incumbents and commercial companies do their own thing and choose their own course Assist/fund communities to install the own FTTH systems Support towns and cities to do their own thing and install dark networks
  29. 29. Progressively Displacing Evidence and Wisdom Management by BS & misinformation is dangerous, damaging, big negative U K TO B E F ROZ E N O UT ? No Smart Cities No eHealthCare No TeleEducation No Cloud Computing Ineffective IoT Systems Reduced Market Access Sidelined Service Economy Crippled Mobility/Flexibility Greater Friction/Inefficiency Disadvantage Manufacturing Loss of Existing Leadership Positions ++++ Bifurcating world - leaders/laggards - fibre/copper Laggards Limited (Copper) Leaders Unlimited (Fibre) Green Adaptive Pace Setting Future Proof Top Economies Can Do Anything Prime Innovators Leading Creators Market Dominating
  30. 30. The UK debate has lasted a very long time... and we are still not on the starting grid…. Thank You cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org