Predicting digital futures a sector at a time is relatively easy, but in a networked world driven by accelerating technologies this is insufficient. Sectors do not operate in isolation, they are connected, and as technology advances the boundaries morph, with whole industries overtaken and pushed aside. At the same time old jobs lose relevance and new skills are required, but in aggregate ever more people are employed. Today there is no country, no matter how big or rich, that has all the raw materials and people required to power its industries, healthcare systems, farming and food production, or indeed educational institutions. Insourcing, outsourcing, and globalisation are the result, and they are about to be augmented by global networking of facilities, skills and abilities We have never known or understood so much about our world, and nor have we enjoyed the capabilities bestowed by modern technology. But keeping up to date, acquiring the right knowledge and skills is a growing challenge as ‘the world of the simple’ evaporates and complexity takes over. “There are plenty of simple solutions to complex problems, but they are all wrong” Preparing for change whilst coping with the status quo now presents many new challenges way beyond human ability and we have to partner with machines to aid our decisions. For organisations it is essential to find and employ the right people, and for people it is necessary to become ever more flexible and adaptable whilst continually acquiring pertinent capabilities. “AI and robots are not going to push us aside, but they will change everything” No man is an island, and neither is any country, company or institution. A digital and connected global interdependency now governs the fortunes of our species as technology empowers us at every level. In this presentation we highlight a small sample of the technologies on the horizon, the jobs they will destroy, enhance and create.

1. Digital
Destinies
The coming symbiosis of mankind & technology
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk

2. M a n v m a c h i n e
Science Fiction and Hollywood nightmares

3. r e a l i t y C h e c K
Machines beat us at Chess, GO & Poker

4. l e a r n i n g
Almost like a young child

5. HUMAN REACTION
Why oh why do we think we are unique ?

10. W i t h o u t
D I G I T E C H
We would have and
know nothing!
Technology
C
hanges
Everything

11. Hypothesis
To a c h i e v e g l o b a l s t a b i l i t y a n d p e a c e :
“ We n e e d t o s t o p p r o d u c i n g m o r e a n d m o r e f o r t h e
f e w … . a n d s t a r t p r o v i d i n g s u f f i c i e n t f o r t h e m a n y ”
O u r o n l y h o p e :
“ E m b r a c i n g n e w t e c h n o l o g y a n d p r o c e s s e s i n c l u d i n g
b i o t e c , n a n o t e c , r o b o t i c s , A I a n d n e t w o r k i n g ”
P e o p l e m o v e m e n t a n d g l o b a l i s a t i o n i s a l s o e s s e n t i a l !

12. w hat w e know for sure
- T h e r e s o u r c e s o f p l a n e t e a r t h a r e f i n i t e
- O u r s o c i e t i e s a r e d e n u d i n g e v e r y t h i n g
- To d a y ’ s g r e e n a g e n d a s a r e i n s u f f i c i e n t
- G l o b a l w a r m i n g i s v i s i b l y h a p p e n i n g
- M o d e r n s o c i e t i e s a r e n o t s u s t a i n a b l e
- E v e r y t h i n g i s g e t t i n g m o r e c o m p l e x
- We s l e e p w a l k i n t o b i g p r o b l e m s
- R e v e r s e g e a r i s n o t a n o p t i o n !
Technology/society only progress in one direction - to stop or go backwards would
entail a terrible cost

14. A tyranny of SIMPLE
- A s s u m p t i o n s
- M e a s u r e s
- T h i n k i n g
- M o d e l s
- D a t a
E v o l v e d f o r a n s l o w
c h a n g i n g a n a l o g u e
w o r l d - w e c a n
c o p e w i t h 3 - 7
i d e a s a t t h e
s a m e t i m e
“There are lots of simple
solutions to complex problems
but they are all wrong”

15. • Raw Data
• Meta Data
• Small Data
• B I G D a t a
E v e r y s e c t o r i s a w a s h / o v e r w h e l m e d
W hat w e HAVE TODAY
W h a t w e a c t u a l l y n e e d :
B I G U N D E R S T A N D I N G

16. “Helicopters didn’t fly upside
down…but they do now”

17. A l d o us H ux l ey
“Would be amazed that we buy and install
our own microphones and cameras….
“…and we are disappointed when people are
not listening and watching…”
g eo rg e o rw e l l

21. SYSTEMS OF THINKING
f
“We have created a world in which we
are fundamentally challenged by non-
linearity and chaos…and we need the
help that only our machines can furnish”
Linear
Poor Recall
Finite memory
Limited capacity
Constrained utility
Slow processing
Slow evolution
Inaccurate
Illogical
Reactive
Non-linear
Inconsistant
Poor recall
Instinctive
Emotional
realisation
Sensory - Dexterity - Ambulation -
Concentration - Tenacity - Stamina
Energy - Focus - Attention ++++H u m a n l i m i t a t i o n s

22. NEW Machines & AI
The biggest advance in human
capabilities….giving us new ways
of thinking and complex problem
solving…
“New technologies always create
more capabilities, and a demand
for more people - they never
destroy the labour market - it is
o u r i n a b i l i t y t o m a n a g e t h e
transition from the old to the new
that is the big problem”!

23. W A R G A M I N G
Artificial LIFE
Computer Modelling
M at e r i a l
S c i e n c e
Clouds
B I G D A T A
S M A L L D A T A
BYOD
BMOB
DIY IT
Sensors
Robots
C y b e r
Security
B i g G est GA M ES I N TOW N ?
Nano
Bio
Simulation
A
I
I o T
A u t o
I m m u n i t y
We only have time for a very small sample of the key elements
Analytics
Social Nets
B l o c k
C h a i n
s o c i o l o g y o f
M a c h i n m s &
T h i n g s
UWB
Sporadic Nets
MMI
VR
A R

24. the font of all Futures
BioTech
NanoTech
AI
A triumvirate of tech for workable sustainabilities
The primary hotspot
for the 21C
New materials
New industries
New processes
New capabilities
Lower energy
Lower waste
Less friction

25. NEW materials

26. M e t a l , P l a s t i c , C o n c r e t e , E l e c t r o n i c C i r c u i t s
S E L F H E A L I N G M at e r i a ls

27. N o t h i n g s t i c k s a l w a y s d r y a n d c l e a n
Hydrophobic Coatings

28. Self cleaning
Printed panels
Colour programmable
Self repairing to a point
Integrated energy storage
feasible Engineering
Not possible yet - but certainly feasible

29. SOUND WITH NO MOVING PARTS
A pending revolution in surround sound & cancellation

30. Artificial intelligence

33. >20M texts available
<3M selected for analysis
Argument abstracted pro - con
No human resource can
do this !

34. I B M W ATS O N
H u m a n s ov e r t a ke n by 2 0 1 1

35. W ATS O N I n m e d i c i n e
H u m a n s d i a g n o s i s s k i l l o v e r t a k e n 2 0 1 2

36. A I C O N T E X T
A vital step toward cognition
Feel
Sight
Taste
Smell
Sound
Experiences
Cameras
Mobiles
Sensors
Media
Nets
IoT
“Let us pray”
“Lettuce spray”
“Let us spray”
Are we in church/mosque,
kitchen or garden ?
Ultimately, AI
is defined by
sensory systems

37. Intelligent search & Sort

38. Stored information growth
1986
I can’t draw
a dot small
enough!!
.
1996
0.001ZB
2006
0.13ZB
2016
13ZB
IoT will accelerate this trend to promote ever more on device storage
ZetaByte = 1021 ExaB = 1018 PetaB = 1015 TeraB = 1012
Prognosis: IoT small data distributed
storage may exceed the
internet

39. s m a rt w o r k i n g
Integrated apps and internet search

40. s e a r c h E n g i n es
Brilliant and useless at the same time
Spending 80% of your
time searching instead
of doing isn’t a smart
way of working !
AI could easily fix this
but these companies
are not going to let it
happen !
Unlikely to embrace AI/Smart/Intelligent search
It reduces the number of clicks and $$$$

42. T r u t h E n g i n e s
Easy to confirm facts - conjecture is harder
Vital for:
• Politics
• Society
• Science
• Farming
• Internet
• Security
• Industry
• Education
• Healthcare
• Commerce
• Government
• ++++
“In most arenas truth is
dynamic and changes
with our ability to
test & measure”
“Accepted truths advance
toward an absolute state
with our ability to
challenge them”

43. S o u r c e S e a r c h
Original accounts v repeats
Identify primary sources
and qualified reports…

44. Across multiple sources - locations
C o r r e l at i o n
Weighted sources by reputation/history:
BBC = 0.95
Bloomberg = 0.90
FoxNews = 0.70
+++
+++
Twitter = 0.01
Early R&D phase but of great interest
to Google, IBM, CIA, FBI, et al

45. robots Like us
Or even better in some extreme cases
Able to go and be where humans
can’t, won’t or shouldn’t go to work
without fatigue or complaint…
S p e c i a l i s e d b u t b e c o m i n g
increasingly flexible, adaptable and
capable…

46. robots unLike us
Taking care of many of our needs
Doing what we cannot do year on
year with precision and quality…
producing complex goods and
consumables
…including packaging, warehousing
and logistics + exploration in zones
of disaster and large scale accidents

47. Vertical Farming
Food production on demand just in time Continual JIT crops on demand
Far greater yields
90% less water
Less or no soil
No pesticides
Unaffected by climate
Consistent quality
Less land use

48. sensory systems

51. new tech destroys jobs
Whilst changing the nature of work and employment
Lost in my lifetime:
Typists
Dockers
Milkman
Blacksmith
Secretaries
Drawing office
Xerox operator
Elevator operator
Computer operator
Telephone operator
Comptometer operator
Financial report writers
++++
Testers
Tasters
Analysts
Advisors
Educators
Reporters
Strategists
Call centres
Report writers
Personal bankers
Personal assistants
Answering services
Investment bankers
Warehouse People
Personal Assistant
Tech suppor t
Stock Trader
Receptionist
Forecasters
Train driver
Researcher
Journalist
Drivers
Pilots
++++
Lost in your lifetime:

52. tech Creates/Enhances jobs
Whilst changing the nature of life, work & employment
Jobs to come:
3/4D Designer
Risk Profilers
Cyborg Engineer
Protein Designer
Crime Predictor
Digital Historian
Information Caretaker
Truth Engine Mediator
Component Repurposer
Genome-Protein Activators
Material Programmer
Recycling Designers
Interface Designers
Machine Mediators
Wisdom Archivists
Genome Designer
Material Designer
Wisdom Monitors
Trouble Shooters
Nano-Engineers
Bio-Engineers
Jobs to Be enhanced:
Fabricator
Geneticist
Generalist
Proteomist
Multi-designer
Problem solver
Longevity advisor
Big Data Analyst
Cellular programmer
Material programmer
Complexity analysts
Security Experts
Entrepreneurs
Technologists
Consultants
Architects
Detectives
Designers
Engineers
Modellers
Scientists
Medics

53. Education-change
Students for tomorrow, not yesterday
New methods/curriculum for a new world
Student - mentor - human and machine

54. R e c a l l i n g f a c t s , f i g u r e s ,
processes, methods is not
a measure of intelligence
- machines can do that !
rate of Education change
Mu st get ahead of industry and f orge long te r m link s
Problem solving abilities &
creativity now trump pure
academic attainment
A n y t i m e , t o p i c ,
l o c a t i o n , s t y l e ,
a n d f o r m a t

55. inverted Innovation
Expertise and experience is on the move
Tanks to Toys
In The
P a s t
TodayGames to Guns
Opening up a new range
of opportunities

56. P e r s p e c t i v e
100 fold more change than us
“ O u r l e g a c y s h o u l d b e a
world of sustainable progress
for all peoples to come”
It
all
starts
w
ith
e
d
u
c a
t i o
n

57. The future belongs to the
most adaptable and those
who dare !
Thank You
1995
cochrane.org.uk