So how big will IPL 5 be? Will it fall further than the previous IPL season? How excited are the people for this year’s IPL season? How will the viewership shape up and how much impact will it carry on other popular genres on television today? Forecasting TV viewership is not easy. But we have had TAM for years in India and India always had a solid analytics and statistics base! We have made an attempt to answer all these questions using a scientific approach of analytics, advanced Statistics and audience research.

1. IPLLab Newsletter - 2012
5 Forecast
percept media lab Issue : 1
April 2012
Heads or Tails?
At the 2011 World Cup Finals, after Dhoni spun the coin, he thought he had
won the toss. But Crowe did not hear a call from Kumar Sangakkara who, as
the visiting skipper was supposed to nominate 'heads' or 'tails'. After a brief
discussion between the captains Crowe ordered a re-toss -
an almost unheard of event in any cricket match…..
How big is the Buzz for IPL 5?
So how big will IPL 5 be? Will it fall further than the previous IPL season? How excited are the people for
this year’s IPL season? How will the viewership shape up and how much impact will it carry on other
popular genres on television today?
Forecasting TV viewership is not easy. But we have had TAM for years in India and India always had a
solid analytics and statistics base! We have made an attempt to answer all these questions using a scien-
ti�ic approach of analytics, advanced Statistics and audience research.
Methodology:
a. Analytics helped us to zero in on the broad directions of Statistical Analysis as well as the Unit for
forecasting and the appropriate Statistical Tools to be explored
b. Analytics indicated that it is important to look at the three TGs viz All Adults 4+ C&S, Males, 15+ AB
and Females, 15+ ABC. It was also clear that forecasting GRPs delivered over a Week would be more
robust than say forecasting Match TVRs
c. IPL Forecasting had been performed using 5 different forecasting techniques. The two best fore-
casting techniques were shortlisted using Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Absolute Scaled
Error. The forecasting had been done in accordance with number of matches in each week and stage
at which they are being played.
d. The estimated market wise GRPs could be seen as directive/indicative rather than absolute
number for various TGs and Genre.
e. The online research on ‘Mood of the People for IPL 2012 as compared to IPL 2011’ was conducted
by international research agency specializing in online panel research. The study was done two weeks
prior, appropriate factoring would need to be done to look at adjusting the Statistical Forecast
Page 1

2. Is there some pattern over seasons ?
The IPL has beyond doubt created the “cricketainment”
Figure 1
space which cannot be detached from its audience. It
dominates TV viewing like no other programe or event on
Channel share for CS Male AB 15+ at all India level
television, particularly during its telecast period. This can
30
be concluded from the fact that the channel’s share
amongst its core target audience of male viewers from
25
IPL
Socio Economic Class AB is the highest at 20%+ across all
20
IPL seasons! The share among the two other TGs 4+ C&S
Top 3 GEC
15 Cummulative
and Women ABC 15+, is also pretty high at 15% and 10 %
10 Top 3 Movies
respectively. In a typical non cricket period just before
Cummulative
5
IPL, even Top 3 GEC channels together have a share of
under 20%. On the other hand movie genre had remained
0
IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4
relatively unaffected.
Avg. channel share of first, middle and last week during IPL season time band 16:00 - 23:59
However, IPL 4, held in 2011, saw a visible drop in its
channel share as compared to the previous seasons of IPL.
Figure 2
The total viewership generated by IPL 4 in terms of GRPs
generated were 10% lower. This has been popularly be
Channel share for CS Female ABC 15+ at all India level
attributed to the euphoria of the Cricket World Cup just
before of IPL season, leading to a sort of fatigue for cricket
30
viewers. But this didn’t translate into any gain for any
25 IPL
other channels. We believe that an increase in the number
20
of matches - from about 60 matches in the earlier IPLs to
Top 3 GEC
15 Cummulative
73 in IPL 4 accentuated the dip in the league matches.
Top 3 Movies
10
Over the years channel share of IPL among women has
Cummulative
5
dropped and was the lowest for IPL 4. Consequently share of
0
Top 3 GEC’s has steadily increased over IPL seasons.
IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4
Avg. channel share of first, middle and last week during IPL season time band 16:00 - 23:59
‘U’ Shaped Viewership of IPL
Interestingly, IPL viewership by week shows mild ‘U’
Figure 3
shape trend lines. It starts with a bang, tapers down and
peaks towards climax. This substantiates that the �irst
Channel share for CS Female ABC 15+ at all India level
week with its grand opening ceremony and buzz around
IPL surely works for TV viewership. But towards mid-
30
season, it loses its hold. Could Brand IPL add some pizzzaz
25
to its entertainment quotient during middle stage of the
20 Max
tournament? This is what IPL should surely try.
GEC
15
Movies
10
5
0
IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4
Avg. channel share of first, middle and last week during IPL season time band 16:00 - 23:59
Page 2

3. What will IPL 5 Gross in the Opening week ?
Statistical Forecast
It is imperative to know how IPL in 2012 will shape up in its TV viewership in terms of Gross Ratings Points
(GRPs). We have used various scienti�ic forecasting techniques and the best technique that gave
minimum error was selected to estimate IPL 5 GRPs by week. The IPL 5 GRPs forecast was performed with
respect to the number of matches to be held in each week of the IPL and also by studying the pattern of GRPs,
week by week of the previous IPL seasons. Total GRPs was chosen over TVR’s as it is a more robust measure.
Our prediction model suggests that total viewership of IPL will start at 4% to 8% higher viewership than last
season for �irst 2 weeks and will catchup and build in to a high in the last 2 weeks. The total gross viewership
of IPL 5 will reach IPL 3 level of about 2600 GRPs for the core male TG.
The model applied implies that IPL 2012 viewership in GRPs will at least improve by 4% in the total TV audi-
ence and 7 to 8% in the other two TGs we studied (M AB 15+ and F ABC 15+) compared to IPL 2011’s viewer-
ship in �irst week of IPL 2012, as depicted in table 1 below.
The story does not end there for the prediction of GRPs. This forecasting model estimates increase in female
viewership (GRPs) at least by 7% and above compared to IPL 2011 as depicted in table 1. Interestingly, the
total viewership of IPL 5 measured by GRPs generated will take it to the same level as IPL 3. This gives strong
sense of the point established earlier that IPL dominance on television space is here to stay.
GRPs for week 1
All India : Gross Viewership (GRPs) for 1st week - Table 1
Week 1 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 Forecast for IPL 5 % Change over IPL 4
All CS 4+ Yrs 334 298 332 291 304 4%
Male AB 15+ 562 499 566 456 493 8%
Female ABC 15+ 338 276 347 278 297 7%
CUM GRP’s across weeks
Gross Viewership (GRPs) of IPL and expected increment in IPL 5 for all India - Table 2
IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 Forecast for IPL 5 % Change over IPL 4
All CS 4+ Yrs 1887 1581 1836 1650 1891 15%
Male AB 15+ 2708 2258 2658 2257 2652 18%
Female ABC 15+ 1708 1372 1656 1421 1662 17%
GRP’s by week: IPL 4 Vs IPL 5
All India : Gross Viewership (GRPs) by weeks - Table 3
Male AB 15+ Yrs
Weeks IPL 4 IPL 5
% Change over IPL 4
1 456 493 8%
2 414 456 10%
3 387 413 7%
4 401 426 6%
5 293 339 15%
6 238 306 28%
7 248 361 45%
8 108 195 80%
Page 3

4. What is the Mood of the People ?
While cricketainment space by IPL is predicted statistically to be better than last year in terms of its TV
GRPs, we need to see how interested people are for IPL 2012 as compared to IPL 2011. The answer to this
question was found by conducting an online research on 845 sample, by an international research agency
specializing in online research - NEPA
The study was conducted two weeks prior to IPL 5 and hence undermines the current mood and interest for
IPL. Even that time the interest for watching matches was at a similar level as the last year. This suggests that
IPL 5 viewership may be higher than IPL 4. Thus, based on this research we did not feel the need to upweight
or downweight the statistical forecast. The importance of IPL in audiences mind can be gauged from the fact
that 60% of respondents said they would miss it a lot.
Interest among friends and peers IPL 2012 v/s IPL 2011
60% 59%
IPL 2011 IPL 2012
Answered 6-7 on a scale from 1-7 where 1=Low interest and 7=A lot of interest
A little less interest in the league matches this year but
other matches already at same level as last year
80%
74% 75%
70%
60% 57% 57%
53%
50% 48%
40% IPL 2011
IPL 2012
30%
20%
10%
0%
League Matches Qualifiers Finals
60% of the respondents would miss IPL a lot if it was
cancelled
100%
60% of the respondents would miss IPL if it was
90%
Share of cancelled, 26% wouldn’t
population 80%
70% 1 4 7
60% Won't miss it at all Will miss it a lot
60%
50% Index: 34
32%
40%
Index = those who like
30% 26% minus those who dislike
20% 13% 11%
10% 7%
15%
8%
0%
Will miss it a lot Won't miss it at all
What if IPL was cancelled
Page 4

5. Impact on Hindi GEC and Movies
By contrast, popular genre on television such as GEC and Movies evidently see a drop in their GRPs from pre
IPL average GRPs to �irst week GRPs during IPL. But by all means it is reasonable to believe that GEC’s have
started applying their strategies smartly as it is estimated to have some control on the plunge of GRPs during
the �irst week of IPL 2012 as compared to IPL 2011. It potentially means that there is possibly some sort of
a �ight for the remote in single television households, over which TV channel to watch.
Movie genre too will witness a drop in GRPs from pre IPL average (4 weeks) GRPs to GRPs generated during
the �irst week of the IPL season. However, this drop in the movie genre will be marginally more for male
audiences than for female audiences. Also, all individuals with age of 4 and above will a see similar pattern
in drop for Hindi movie genre, this can be important to note for media planners and buyers.
% GRPs drop for GEC during first week of IPL over pre IPL period*
30% Time Band : 16:00 - 23:59; Market: HSM 1 Million +
25%
25% 23%
21%
19% 19% 19%
20%
2011
15%
2012
10%
5%
0%
All Adults 4+ Female ABC 15+ Male AB 15+
*Pre IPL Non Cricket 4 weeks average had been taken for calculation
% GRPs drop for Movies during firstin GRPs during first week period*
Movies will witness similar drop week of IPL over pre IPL of IPL 2012
as compared to IPL 2011 over avg. GRPs of pre IPL weeks* GRPs
30% Time Band : 16:00 - 23:59; Market: HSM 1 Million +
25% 22% 21%
20% 17% 16%
15% 2011
15% 13%
2012
10%
5%
0%
All Adults 4+ Female ABC 15+ Male AB 15+
*Pre IPL Non Cricket 4 weeks average had been taken for calculation
Page 5

6. Impact on South GEC+Movies
It is pertinent here to observe that the Tamil GEC and Movie combine will have almost a similar kind of
drop in IPL 2012 as compared to IPL 2011. The Telugu GEC and Movies combine will have higher drop in
their GRPs during �irst week of IPL 2012 in comparison with IPL 2011. Interestingly, females with age of
15 and above in socio economic class ABC will show a lesser impact in comparison to females with age of
4 and above for Telugu GEC and Movies combine.
For all the good shown by CSK, IPL does not have a strong dominance in TN(or for that matter in AP) Natu-
rally Impact of IPL on Tamil and Telugu Channels is not high.
% GRPs drop for Tamil GEC+Movies during first week of IPL over pre IPL period*
14%
12%
12% 11%
10%
8%
8% 7% 7% 7%
2011
6%
4% 2012
2%
0%
4+ All Adults 15+ Yrs Male AB 15+ Yrs Female ABC
*Non Cricket pre IPL 4 weeks average GRPs were considered for calculation and estmation
% GRPs drop for Telugu GEC+Movies during first week of IPL over pre IPL period*
14%
12%
12%
10%
10%
8% 8%
8%
2011
6%
4% 2012
4%
2% 1%
0%
4+ All Adults 15+ Yrs Male ABC 15+ Yrs Female ABC
*Non Cricket pre IPL 4 weeks average GRPs were considered for calculation and estmation
Page 6

7. Impact on Advertising Minutes on Hindi GEC and Hindi Movies
Surprisingly, the impact that IPL carries on GEC and movie genre in the con-
text of advertising minutes may not be catching the attention of bright ana-
lytic minds in media today. It is evident that a drop in advertising minutes,
% Drop in Advt. Minutes in
each week of IPL over Pre-IPL
during �inals and quali�iers, in GEC and movies are visible. However, the
weeks average (Pre-IPL non
cricketing 4 weeks)
same is not visible during �irst couple of weeks of the IPL season. This could
mean that media planners are pre occupied with the �inal but no one is
IPL 2011
paying attention to the �irst two weeks where they still can get a reasonable
Weeks GEC Movies
exposure for their brands. This requires planners to take into account the
1 0% -4%
mild ‘U’ shape viewership of the IPL season.
2 1% -4%
3 0% -14%
4 -3% -22%
5 0% -15%
6 1% -14%
7 -31% -40%
8 -72% -74%
Detailed Forecast
CS All Adults 4+ (All India) CS All Adults 4+ (HSM 1 Million+)
Foreca Match Foreca Match
st for TVR st for TVR
Week IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5
1 334 298 332 291 304 4.3 396 337 399 337 355 5.0
2 303 329 337 249 280 4.3 341 373 387 296 327 5.1
3 288 279 270 258 265 3.7 316 313 322 292 302 4.3
4 281 285 295 260 271 3.8 319 328 344 301 314 4.4
5 244 279 259 199 223 3.5 287 307 297 226 254 3.9
6 268 111 247 155 197 2.8 303 120 285 174 223 3.1
7 168 95 158 223 3.8 193 110 183 257 4.4
8 80 128 6.6 85 144 7.4
Average across all matches 4.1 Average across all matches 4.7
Males AB 15+ (All India) Female ABC 15+ (All India)
Foreca Match Foreca Match
st for TVR st for TVR
Week IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5
1 467 437 496 397 428 6.0 292 253 295 250 264 3.7
2 426 479 490 356 402 6.2 262 286 302 207 240 3.7
3 413 399 391 347 368 5.2 258 243 248 223 233 3.3
4 403 403 423 357 380 5.3 257 250 265 216 233 3.3
5 359 379 363 266 306 4.7 221 241 233 171 196 3.0
6 376 163 354 210 274 3.9 241 99 225 137 176 2.5
7 239 139 216 315 5.4 160 89 140 200 3.4
8 108 181 9.3 77 121 6.2
Average across all matches 5.8 Average across all matches 3.6
Males AB 15+ Female ABC 15+
Foreca Match Foreca Match
st for TVR st for TVR
Week IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5
1 562 499 566 456 493 6.9 338 276 347 278 297 4.2
2 480 533 532 414 456 7.1 283 314 335 237 269 4.2
3 468 447 445 387 413 5.8 280 268 288 248 261 3.7
4 465 444 473 401 426 6.0 288 270 295 231 254 3.6
5 427 404 398 293 339 5.2 260 246 254 187 214 3.3
6 425 175 389 238 306 4.3 268 99 247 153 194 2.7
7 265 151 248 361 6.2 175 95 161 226 3.9
8 108 195 10.1 78 129 6.7
Average across all matches 6.4 Average across all matches 4.0
4+ All Adults TN 4+ All Adults AP
Foreca Match Foreca Match
st for TVR st for TVR
Week IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5
1 226 226 218 168 189 2.7 285 239 265 207 230 3.2
2 233 242 254 159 193 3.0 268 261 269 181 215 3.3
3 216 262 181 201 205 2.9 260 209 222 197 210 2.9
4 227 223 226 195 207 2.9 233 232 254 197 215 3.0
5 197 257 198 162 182 2.8 185 232 206 145 170 2.6
6 207 84 224 99 149 2.1 225 85 228 131 170 2.4
7 169 93 128 181 3.1 127 66 112 176 3.0
8 87 128 6.6 56 95 4.9
Average across all matches 3.3 Average across all matches 3.2
Data source: We have obviously miked the rich tam data without which this analysis wouldnt have been possible.
Page 7

8. In the Final Analysis
IPL 5, 2012 is expected to continue its dominance in the 15+ Male, SEC AB segment and is
here to stay.
More number of matches may not translate into more time spent on viewing matches.
The opening week, in the 15+ Male SEC AB segment IPL 5, 2012 is expected to register a
moderate 8% increase in GRPs as compared to IPL 4, 2011.
Hardcore statistical analysis and research show that audience segment 15+ Female SEC
ABC viewership (GRPs) of IPL 5, 2012 is projected to grow by 17%, as compared to IPL 4,
2011.
However, IPL share of viewing among women is steadily declining and top 3 GEC channels
together have overtaken IPL in the last season.
The huge proportion of single TV houses could become a factor in the equation for men v/s
women viewership and is expected to be evenly poised for IPL 5, 2012.
Finally, it would be interesting to see who wins the �ight for the remote in households in
India
About percept media lab
Percept Media Lab will delve into analytics, forecasts and future trends and concepts in the marcom space.
The next big initiative of Percept Media Lab is an M3 Study which combines Message, 3600 media touch-
points to deliver Market Share. At the heart of the study is a massive 20000 sample size consumer research,
which will explore the path of purchase for10 product categories. The study will measure importance of key
drivers for each of the categories and perception of top brands on each of those. The High point of this study
will be the unique M3 model in collaboration with Pointlogic, a World Leader in marcom planning and
analytics that combines cutting-edge research, advanced mathematical modeling, and �lexible software
tools to deliver optimum message and media touch point combination for maximizing market share. The
scale of this project is the �irst of its kind in the world.
Page 8