Where are we going? Most startups overestimate potential while at the same time having a too narrow understanding of the customer, other cultures and the future landscape of the industry ecosystem. This presentation share three tools to think wider and smarter about the future. In 1980s the movie back to the future took us 30 years into the future to 2015. Now is the the to rethink where we are going in the coming 30 years.

1. building
startups in
the system age
@DESIGNMEANING #STARTUPDAY2015 150425

2. TEXT 2
tweet me:
@designmeaning

4. systemspeople

5. overconfident estimates?
Silicon Valley ©2015 HOME BOX OFFICE, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

6. product usability
customer culture
the future
too narrow thinking about:

7. 3 tools for building better

8. 1. prototype
2. outsmart bias
3. have future map

9. 1. prototype

10. Swedens 4 most crowdfunded tech products:
Earin
10m SEK*
smallest
wireless
earbuds
Narrative
Clip
3,5m SEK*
wearable
automatic
camera + gps
Flic
7m SEK*
wireless
shortcut
button
Transparent
Speaker
1m SEK*
quality
design
speaker
*Figures are estimates based on currency assumptions and does not factor in fees etc.

11. We helped design these:
Narrative
Clip
3,5m SEK*
wearable
automatic
camera + gps
Flic
7m SEK*
wireless
shortcut
button
Transparent
Speaker
1m SEK*
quality
design
speaker
*Figures are estimates based on currency assumptions and does not factor in fees etc.

12. 1. Technology is almost free
2. Prototyping is almost free
3. User testing is almost free
4. Crowdfunding is almost free
=
+500 tech projects funded with
more than $100k on kickstarter
(870k SEK!)
Amazing development:

13. BOLDLY GO WHERE NO ONE HAS GONE BEFORE

15. 2010 2015 2020
IMAGE: BACK TO THE FUTURE PART © UNIVERSAL PICTURES

16. prototype!

17. Headline
Synaptic’s Torchio demo showing their ForcePad™ technology at CES 2015 together with topp.se

18. IMAGE: MODEL S © TESLA
mobile phones: 10 sensors
car: 50-100 sensors

19. people
faster
& faster
tech

20. 2. outsmart bias

21. subjective experience
relevant - needs
assumptions
conclusions
beliefs
we enforce what
we believe,
a self sealing logic
creating a bubble
reality (unknowable)
Liminal Thinking inspired by Dave Grey http://bit.ly/liminalthinking

22. Design of everyday things via jnd.org

23. subjective experience
relevant - needs
assumptions
conclusions
beliefs
reality (unknowable)
Liminal Thinking inspired by Dave Grey http://bit.ly/liminalthinking
subjective experience
relevant - needs
assumptions
conclusions
beliefs
Salt people Pepper people

24. subjective experience
relevant - needs
assumptions
conclusions
beliefs
reality (unknowable)
Liminal Thinking inspired by Dave Grey http://bit.ly/liminalthinking
subjective experience
relevant - needs
assumptions
conclusions
beliefs
Salt people Pepper people

25. break comfort zone

26. Design for cultural complexity
Gods house in fisksätra http://www.gudshusvan.se/index.php/gud-hus

27. IMAGE: BACK TO THE FUTURE PART II © UNIVERSAL PICTURES
where are we going?

28. 2016

29. 2017
Volvo: ”our self-driving cars are better than humans”

31. we need a map !

32. 3. Have a future map

33. http://www.naturalstep.org/en/the-funnel
Supply
Demand
society in funnel
http://www.naturalstep.org/en/the-funnel

34. EU Emissions plan
Europe's emissions should be 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/roadmap/milestones/index_en.htm
Supply

35. Society: Global urban population growth
World Urbanization Prospects - the United Nations esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Highlights/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf
Demand

36. transportation ecosystem map
ELECTRICAL
PERSONAL
MOBILITY
TRAIN
BOAT
BUSS
LONG
DISTANCE AIR
SHORT
DISTANCE AIR
SELF-DRIVING
CARS

37. 2020 landscape
home transportation work
whats the ”job to be done”?

38.
People’s ”job to be done”
layers:
POLITICS URBANIZATION
ENVIRONMENT
Society’s ”job to be done”
HOME WORKTRANSPORTATION

39. EU Emissions plan
Europe's emissions should be 40% below 1990 levels by 2030
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/roadmap/milestones/index_en.htm
Global urban population growth
World Urbanization Prospects - the United Nations
esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Highlights/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf

40.
People’s ”job to be done”
layers:
POLITICS URBANIZATION
ENVIRONMENT
Society’s ”job to be done”
DIGITALIZATION
ENERGY
Industry’s ”job to be done”
HOME WORKTRANSPORTATION

41. Energy storage:
Price of lithium Ion batteries
Image qz.com Data: Navigant http://bit.ly/elon-battery
Energy generation:
Solar cell cost relation to installation
Swansons ”law” http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Is-there-really-a-Swansons-Law
Cell Cost$150-200

42. CAPTION
TEXT 42
”When there's no other dude in the car, the cost of taking an Uber
anywhere becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle”
Uber CEO Travis Kalanick
IMAGE: SOUTH PARK ©2015 COMEDY PARTNERS.

43. 1. prototype
2. outsmart bias
3. have future map

46. MARTIN WILLERS 150425
www.peoplepeople.com
tweet me: @designmeaning
linkedin.com/in/willers
slideshare:
bit.ly/buildingsystemage