Exposición de Alejandro Moreno para la Semana de la Energía Sostenible

1. PROGRESS TOWARD
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Global Tracking Framework 2015

2. What is the Global
Tracking Framework?

3. Global Tracking Framework measures progress
towards SE4AAll Goals
Title of Presentation 3

4. GTF
Coordinators:
Partners:

5. SE4All
2030
Goals
GTF 2015
Primary
Indicators
ENERGY
ACCESS
ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
RENEWABLE
ENERGY
100% access to
electricity and
clean cooking
Double rate of
improvement in
EE
Double
share of RE
in energy
mix
Percentage of
population with
electricity
connection /
using non-solid
fuels
Percentage of total
final energy
consumption
from renewable
sources
Compound
annual growth
rate of primary
energy supply /
GDP in PPP
Additional
analysis
Disaggregations by location, sector, fuels;
decomposition analysis for EE; investment flows,
data requirements

6. Ideal
Metrics
Workable
Solution
Available
Data
Agenda for
Improvement
Global Tracking Framework takes a pragmatic approach
balancing ideal metrics and data availability

7. Diverse
technologies
for service
delivery
Variable
quality of
electricity
supply
Illegal and
secondary
connections
Community
and
productive
uses of
electricity
Percentage of population with an
electricity connection based on surveys
A workable solution for tracking electrification

8. But we are working towards a better solution:
the multi-tier framework (MTF)

9. HouseholdSurveys
(DHS,MIC,LSMS)and
Censuses
WHO Cooking
Database
Energy Access
WB
Electrification
Database
NationalEnergy
Balances
Energy
Efficiency
IEA Energy
Balances
UN Energy
Balances
WDI , REN 21,
IRENA, BNEF
Renewable
Energy
IndicatorData Source Country Coverage
(% of global population)
212
Countries
(100%)
193
Countries
(99%)
181
Countries
(98%)
Electrification Cooking Fuels
NOTE: IEA = International Energy Agency; UN = United Nations; REN 21 = Renewable Energy Network for
the 21st Century; IRENA = International Renewable Energy Agency; BNEF = Bloomberg New Energy
Finance; WDI = World Development Indicators (World Bank); GDP= gross domestic product.
181
Countries
(98%)
Period
22years(1990-2012)
Global Tracking Framework pools and standardizes data
produced by national statistical agencies

10. LAC Results: 2010-2012
LAC has some of the
highest levels of
sustainable energy in
the world

11. LAC has near (but not completely) universal access to
electricity
Access to electricity, 2012 Access to non-solid fuels, 2012
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percent
86
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percent
96% 86%

12. LAC shows low levels of energy intensity,
compared to most other regions
Energy intensity by region, 2012
12
4,0 4,0 4,1
4,4
4,9
5,4 5,6 5,8
7,3
7,9
8,5
10,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
EUR NAF LAC SEA WAS SAS OSN NAR EAS SSA EEU CCA
MJ/USD2011PPP

13. LAC has the highest share of modern RE in the energy mix
13
5,8
15,2
23,1
9,4 7,9 8,8 9,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
EAS EUR LAC NAR SAS SEA SSA
PercentofTFEC
Solid biofuels, trad.
Solid biofuels, mod.
Hydro
Biogas
Waste
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Liquid biofuels
Modern RE share

14. But… rapid
improvement is hard
from such a high
base

15. ENERGY ACCESS
LAC is near universal
electrification, but
progressing more
slowly in clean cooking

16. Electricity access rates have improved faster than those
for clean cooking
Access to electricity, 1990-2012
Access to non-solid fuels, 1990-
2012
16
89,1
92,7 94,796,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Percent
71,3
80,5
84,985,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Percent

17. Of the 20 countries with the most people without electricity…
17
100 100 100 99 98 98 97 97 94 93 91 91 91 91
82 79 79 78 76
38
Argentina
Chile
Brazil
Mexico
Paraguay
Dominican
Republic
Ecuador
Colombia
ElSalvador
Jamaica
Peru
Panama
PuertoRico
Bolivia
Honduras
Guyana
Guatemala
Nicaragua
St.Vincentand
theGrenadines
Haiti
Accessrate2012
(percent)
5,8
0,6
1,5
0,1
1,2
0,0 0,2 0,3
1,7
0,6
6,2
3,0 3,0
10,3
2,2 2,5
0,2
4,9
0,8
4,0
Argentina
Chile
Brazil
Mexico
Paraguay
Dominican
Republic
Ecuador
Colombia
ElSalvador
Jamaica
Peru
Panama
PuertoRico
Bolivia
Honduras
Guyana
Guatemala
Nicaragua
St.Vincentand
theGrenadines
Haiti
Accessratechange2010-
2012(percentagepoints)
TOTAL: Many have very high access rates…
and many others are improving rapidly
2010-2012 CHANGE:
TOTAL 2012

18. Of the 20 with the most people without access to non-solid fuels
18
99 96 94 94 94 93 93 91 88 86 85 85 79 76
65 58
49 46
37
8
Argentina
Ecuador
Brazil
CostaRica
Venezuela,RB
Cuba
Chile
Dominican
Republic
Jamaica
Colombia
Panama
Mexico
ElSalvador
Bolivia
Peru
Paraguay
Honduras
Nicaragua
Guatemala
Haiti
Accessratein2012(percent)
0,9
1,4
1,1 1,1
-0,5
0,5
0,9
1,5
1,8
0,7 0,6
0,3
2,9
1,8 1,9
1,5
0,9
1,5
-0,6
0,0
Argentina
Ecuador
Brazil
CostaRica
Venezuela,RB
Cuba
Chile
Dominican
Republic
Jamaica
Colombia
Panama
Mexico
ElSalvador
Bolivia
Peru
Paraguay
Honduras
Nicaragua
Guatemala
Haiti
Accessratepercentagepoint
change,2010-2012
Access rates are somewhat lower…
…and progress somewhat slower
2010-2012 CHANGE:
TOTAL 2012

19. 20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
>100%
100% = annual rate of improvement needed to
reach target by 2030.
LAC: Progress against target: Electrification
Access to electricity is on pace to meet target

20. 20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
74%
LAC: Progress against target: Clean cooking
2010-2012
Access to non-solid fuels increased at 74% of what would be needed
to reach target

21. ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Overall energy intensity is
relatively low, but rate of
improvement is mixed

22. 22
Only transport has seen
sustained improvement in
energy intensity since 1990
Energy intensity, 1990-2012 CAGR of energy intensity, 2010-2012
-4,1
-1,4 -1,3
0,3
2,7
8,3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
GJ/household
MJ/2011USDPPP
Energy intensity
Transport Industrial Agricultural
Services Residential Primary
But industry improved
markedly 2010-2012

23. Many have relatively low energy intensity
23
2,2 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,8 3,1 3,1 3,9 3,9 3,9 4,0 4,1 4,2 4,4 4,5
6,0 6,1 6,1
10,5
20,7
0
5
10
15
20
25
EnergyIntensityin2012
(MJ/$2011)
-3,3
-4,5 -4,3
0,1
-1,1
0,8
-3,8 -3,6
-0,2
-2,6
-0,6
1,0
4,0
0,6 0,4
1,3
-4,0
1,6
-0,6
-2,0
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
CAGRofEnergyIntensity,2010-
2012(percent)
And a number improved markedly (but others regressed)
Of the 20 countries with the greatest energy supply
2010-2012 CHANGE:
TOTAL 2012

24. LAC Energy Intensity progress is mixed
Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity did not improve between 2010-
2012
Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by less than 2.6% per
annum in 2010-2012
Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by at least 2.6% per
annum in 2010-2012

25. LAC: Progress against target: Energy Efficiency
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
30%
Energy intensity decreased at 30% of target rate from 2010-2012

26. RENEWABLE ENERGY
LAC has some of the
highest RE shares in
the world, but
increases are limited

27. Electricity: LAC has seen steady RE capacity additions
since 1990, but falling shares of total capacity
Annual renewable capacity additions (bars) and renewables share of capacity (lines),
1990-2012
27
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Percent
GW
RE capacty addition
Geothermal
Solar
Biomass, Waste
Wind
Hydro
RE share of installed capacity
RE share of installed capacity excluding
hydro

28. Many have very high RE shares
28
41,6 40,3 38,5
33,8
30,3
22,3
19,1 18,6 18,5
15,9 14,6 14,5
11,5 11,2 10,7 9,4 8,1 7,2 6,9
4,4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
ModernREshareofTFEC,
percent
0,3
-2,7
-5,9
0,4
3,3
5,6
-0,7
1,6
0,5
1,9 1,4 1,7 2,1 1,8
0,9
-0,6 -0,3
0,2 0,2 0,2
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
ModernREannualincrement
2010-2012,percent
Of the 20 countries with the highest energy consumption
But few are increasing rapidly
2010-2012 CHANGE:
TOTAL 2012

29. Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by
less than 1 percentage point 2010-2012
Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by
at least 1 percentage point 2010-2012
Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption did not improve
between 2010-2012
Few countries rapidly increasing modern renewable share

30. LAC: Progress against target: Modern RE
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
18%
The share of modern RE in final energy consumption increased at
18% of what would be needed to reach target

31. Plans for 2017 GTF

32. Timeline GTF 2017
Data collection: August – December 2016
Data analysis and drafting October 2016 –January 2017
Target publication date: early April 2017

33. • To build a closer link to countries, the five UN
Regional Economic Commissions will join Global
Tracking Framework 2017
• Proposals are to
 Build in country workshops at regional level
 Produce regional chapters/reports
 Conduct regional dissemination
 Set regional capacity building agendas
LAC report coordinated by ECLAC
Plans for 2017: Regional Reports
Global Tracking Framework 2017 will involve more
dialogue with countries around data processing

34. For more information on the report,
please go to:
trackingenergy4all.worldbank.org
#endenergypoverty

35. Annual investment
needs range from
$49-85 billion

36. Electricity
access
Providing at minimum universal
Tier I/III/V electricity access to
Sub-Saharan Africa’s population
Source: results from AIM model
Energy
efficiency
Significantly reducing energy
intensity in Africa
Source: WEO 450
Renewable
energy
Doubling Africa’s share of RE
in TFEC
Source: IRENA REmap
Annual investment needs very much depend on
the level of ambition for energy access
1
$Billion/year
368
37
3
1
Tier
5
12
4
2
20
7

38. LAC

39. Global

40. 20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%60%
Global Electricity

41. 20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%60%
Global Electricity
70%

42. 20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
34%
Global: NSF

43. 20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
25%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
34%
Global: NSF

44. Global: EE
50%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%

45. Global: EE
50%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%64%

46. Global: Modern Renewable Energy
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%41
%

47. Global: RE
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
54%41
%

48. Access

49. LAC ELE/NSF: Access deficit
Electricity access deficit
(millions of people)
Non-solid fuel access
deficit (millions of people)49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2012
Millionpeople
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2012
Millionpeople

50. Average annual increase in
electrified population
2010-2012
Average annual
population increase
2010-2012
14.5 million 9.9 million 10.6 million
Average annual increase
in population with access
to non-solid fuels
2010-2012
LAC ELE/NSF: 2010-2012

51. Average annual increase in
electrified population
2010-2012
Average annual
population increase
2010-2012
14.5 million
9.9 million
10.6 million
Average annual increase
in population with access
to non-solid fuels
2010-2012
11.5 million 14.5 million
Electricity access rates have improved faster than those
for clean cooking

52. Diverse
technologies
for service
delivery
Variable
quality of
electricity
supply
Illegal and
secondary
connections
Community
and
productive
uses of
electricity
Percentage of population with an
electricity connection based on surveys
A workable solution for tracking electrification

53. A workable solution for energy efficiency
Improvement in primary energy intensity
(Compound annual growth rate of primary energy supply /
GDP in PPP)
Energy
efficiency is
the ratio of
energy
input to
physical
output
Physical
output can
only be
measured
by proxy as
GDP
Standard
GDP
measures
understate
developing
country
output
Final energy
consumption
overlooks
waste in
energy
production
Global
measurement
only possible
at the national
level

54. A workable solution for renewable energy
Percentage of total final energy consumption
from renewable sources
Renewable
energies are
those
replenished
more rapidly
than they are
consumed
Sustainability
also critical,
but hard to
gauge
(e.g. biomass)
Renewable
energies are
not affected by
combustion
inefficiency

55. Electrification
Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012
Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012
Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012
Most LAC countries making steady progress on electrification

56. Progress on access to non-solid fuels mixed
Rate of access to non-solid fuels did not increase between 2010-2012
Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012
Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

57. Cook stove
and fuel
together
determine
performance
Adherence to
standards of
use and
maintenance
Use of
multiple
solutions in
the same
household
Availability,
affordability,
convenience,
cultural fit
Percentage of population making primary use of
non-solid fuels based on surveys
A workable solution for tracking clean cooking

58. Cook stove
and fuel
together
determine
performance
Adherence to
standards of
use and
maintenance
Use of
multiple
solutions in
the same
household
Availability,
affordability,
convenience,
cultural fit
Percentage of population making primary use of
clean fuels and technologies
A workable solution for tracking clean cooking

59. 
5
9
Tier Calculation: Household Electricity Supply