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  1. 1. Adapting to a changing climate in the management of wildfires Gerry Lemcke PhD, Head Product Management, Public Sector Solutions, Swiss Re 2020
  2. 2. By the year 2020, Swiss Re commits to have advised 50 sovereigns and sub- sovereigns on climate risk resilience and to have offered them protection of USD 10bn against this risk. Swiss Re CEO, Michel Liès, UN Climate Summit, 23 September 2014 OUR VISION: We make the world more resilient
  3. 3. - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 of economic losses caused by natural catastrophes over the past decade were uninsured70% Insured vs uninsured losses 1970-2018, in USD billion at 2018 prices Source: Swiss Re Institute The protection gap is massive and growing
  4. 4. Public sector bears a large portion of the risks Public budgets are put under twofold strain Closing the financing gap between insured and uninsured losses is thus in the public sector’s vital interest Emergency response costs Reconstruction of public property & infrastructure Support for non-insured households Cost of replacements (e.g. higher imports) Higher costs Lower revenues Lower tax income Lower tourism income Lower export revenues Loss of investor confidence IMPACT ON PUBLIC BUDGETS: Public sector
  5. 5. Tools exist for governments to increase financial resilience Insurance is a crucial tool to protect public budgets
  6. 6. Insurance is not investment* Investment Investorprovides capital pays interest Investor provides capital for immediate use in exchange for interest payment Insurance Government promise the pay claims in the future pays premium Insurer provides promise to provide capital for future use in exchange for premium payment Insurer Government * Insurance companies however do make investments
  7. 7. While there is no individual payback obligation in insurance, over all insured the cost needs to cover the long term expected loss cost Frequency of Payout times Amount of Payout = Expected Loss $$$ $
  8. 8. ~5 ~10 ~15 Out of pocket Contingent financing Reserve funds Insurance/ Reinsurance Insurance is most effective to cover severe, sudden and accidental events outside otherwise available financial means Loss Loss return period Return period [years] >15-1000
  9. 9. In a parametric product, the payout depends on an index and removes the need for loss adjustment
  10. 10. FAST access to cash AFFORDABLE no claims assessment process low limits FLEXIBLE usage of cash Parametric insurance complements traditional insurance • Parametric insurance makes sense for those who can’t afford or access traditional insurance • Parametric insurance makes sense as a complement to traditional insurance • Parametric insurance does not make sense as a substitute for traditional insurance
  11. 11. Parametric solutions are a proven tool …. Uruguay Energy production shortfalls due to drought Guatemala Nat cat business interruption risk Caribbean Hurricane, earthquake and excess rainfall risk Pacific Alliance (CHL, COL, MEX, PER) Earthquake risk United States Flood risk Mexico Earthquake/hurricane and livestock risk California/Utah Earthquake risk Louisiana Hurricane risk Turkey Earthquake pool Bangladesh Flood insurance United Kingdom Flood risk Florida Hurricane risk India Weather insurance for farmers African Risk Capacity Government drought insurance pool Thailand Crop insurance Kenya Livestock insurance Pacific Islands Earthquake and tropical cyclone risk Philippines Earthquake and tropical cyclone risk Guangdong Typhoon/rainfall Beijing Agricultural risk Vietnam Agriculture yield cover Heilongjiang Multiperil disaster risk IDA countries Pandemic outbreak Egypt Hospital cash
  12. 12. Quick loss assessment exists to power parametric insurance products Images and data in collaboration with VanderSat, https://www.vandersat.com/ Images and data in collaboration with VanderSat, https://www.vandersat.com/
  13. 13. … the challenge comes with the risk assessment ! Changes in frequencyand severity… …. are currently seen as mostly outside robust modelling capabilities
  14. 14. ©2020 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You may use this presentation for private or internal purposes but note that any copyright or other proprietary notices must not be removed. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivative works of this presentation, or to use it for commercial or other public purposes, without the prior written permission of Swiss Re. The information and opinions contained in the presentation are provided as at the date of the presentation and may change. Although the information used was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Re does not accept any responsibility for its accuracy or comprehensiveness or its updating. All liability for the accuracy and completeness of the information or for any damage or loss resulting from its use is expressly excluded. Legal notice