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Wildfire-Workshop-Presentation-Daniele-Sempere-Torres

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Wildfire-Workshop-Presentation-Daniele-Sempere-Torres

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Wildfire-Workshop-Presentation-Daniele-Sempere-Torres

  1. 1. Prof. Daniel Sempere-Torres UPC-CRAHI Barcelona Climatic emergencies: Operational decision support tools for emergency management centres www.anywhere-h2020.eu
  2. 2. Climate induced emergencies: challenges for a better management in a changing environment > x3 from 1980 700 200
  3. 3. How to support EMCs? CHANGE OF PARADIGM: From RE-ACTIVE to PRO-ACTIVE RESPONSE Advanced detection and response www.anywhere-h2020.eu
  4. 4. Evolution of the management model of metheo based risk events Forecast Warnings Extrem impact Start of the event Alert Emergency actions Time 2 Detection Time 1 Courtesy of Sergio Delgado Evolution of the management model of weather and climatic emergencies
  5. 5. Start of the event Time Extrem impact Advanced detection Early alert Evolution of the management model of metheo based risk events Forecast Warnings Courtesy of Sergio Delgado Evolution of the management model of weather and climatic emergencies
  6. 6. CHANGE OF PARADIGM: From RE-ACTIVE to PRO-ACTIVE RESPONSE Advanced detection and response Translate best adapted METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS into IMPACT FORECASTS How to support EMCs?
  7. 7. Multi Hazard Early Warning System MH-EWS products www.anywhere-h2020.eu/catalogue Translate best adapted METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS into IMPACT FORECASTS How to support EMCs?
  8. 8. Translate best adapted METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS into IMPACT FORECASTS www.anywhere-h2020.eu/catalogue Multi Hazard Early Warning System MH-EWS products
  9. 9. www.anywhere- h2020.eu/catalogue Flash Flood impact forecasting in any 1-km2 of EU with 2h anticipation Forecasting impacts: Flash Flood Impacts Translate best adapted METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS into IMPACT FORECASTS At 1km over the entire EU, at 200m in pilot sites How to support EMCs?
  10. 10. www.anywhere- h2020.eu/catalogue Translate best adapted METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS into IMPACT FORECASTS Forecasting impacts: Forest Fires risk How to support EMCs?
  11. 11. Forecasting impacts: Fire propagation Translate best adapted METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS into IMPACT FORECASTS How to support EMCs? www.anywhere- h2020.eu/catalogue
  12. 12. Forecasting impacts: Fire propagation How to support EMCs? www.anywhere- h2020.eu/catalogue Translate best adapted METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS into IMPACT FORECASTS
  13. 13. Forecasting impacts: Fire propagation How to support EMCs? www.anywhere- h2020.eu/catalogue Translate best adapted METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS into IMPACT FORECASTS
  14. 14. CHANGE OF PARADIGM: From RE-ACTIVE to PRO-ACTIVE RESPONSE Advanced detection and response Translate best adapted METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS into IMPACT FORECASTS Connect them to the local needs to SUPPORT DECISION MAKING in EMERGENCY COMMAND CENTRES
  15. 15. ANYWHERE A4EU capabilities Integrate IMPACT FORECASTS with local layers to SUPPORT DECISION MAKING in EMERGENCY COMMAND CENTRES Meteorological Forecasting
  16. 16. ANYWHERE A4EU capabilities 112 Calls Last 30 min (30, 60] min (60, 90] min 112 calls and crowdsourcing BURNT AREAS from satellite Local sensors Automatic activation of critical points Integrate IMPACT FORECASTS with local layers to SUPPORT DECISION MAKING in EMERGENCY COMMAND CENTRES Meteorological Forecasting
  17. 17. Meteorological forecasts The ANYWHERE approach based on impact forecasting represents a disruptive innovation in the field of the climatic emergencies operational management www.anywhere-h2020.eu
  18. 18. Meteorological forecasts The ANYWHERE approach based on impact forecasting represents a disruptive innovation in the field of the climatic emergencies operational management Actionable decisions Impact forecasts Hazard forecasts Operational solutions www.anywhere-h2020.eu
  19. 19. In case of flood ✓ the hazard is measurable in terms of total precipitation and river discharge ✓ it is possible to map the flooding areas In case of fire ▪ there is not a common understanding of the main drivers ▪ there is not a common understanding on fire risk mapping Forest Fires Floods What about fires?
  20. 20. FOREST MANAGEMENT ADDRESSING the REAL CAUSES LONG TERM 
 (30 years?) A SOCIETAL CHALLENGE EXTREMELY COMPLEX Abandon of rural areas Gentrification Huge economical interests Need of complex long-term policies What about fires? Investing on DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS, no with the causes EXTINCTION AND FIGHTING Politically attractive (media attractive) Only effective for SMALL AND MEDIUM WILDFIRES Not effective in MEGAFIRES The SUCCESS lead to INCREASE FUEL AVAILABILITY and increases MEGAFIRES probability
  21. 21. TOOLS FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Real Time INFORMATION MANAGEMENT to REDUCE NUMBER OF VICTIMS Modelling FIRE PROPAGATION after IGNITION MANAGEMENT EVACUATION and CONFINEMENT to avoid victims Integration with critical and vulnerable points information Anticipation of severe conditions using weather forecasts
  22. 22. A4EU Platform - Impact products - Forest Fires RISICO forecast products
  23. 23. A4EU Platform - Impact products - Forest Fires RISICO forecast products EFFIS burnt areas (satellite)
  24. 24. A4EU Platform - Impact products - Forest Fires EFFIS forecast products EFFIS burnt areas (satellite)
  25. 25. A4EU Platform - Impact products - Forest Fires Selector of ignition elementsWildfire PROPAGATOR from CIMA (in A4Cat) Selector of wind conditions Run simulation
  26. 26. A4EU Platform - Impact products - Forest Fires Ignition element Selector of wind conditions Simulation running Wildfire PROPAGATOR from CIMA (in A4Cat)
  27. 27. Olot, Catalonia Sensor: MODIS Observation date: 15/01/2020 04:20 Update date: 15/01/2020 18:15 Select EFFIS burnt areas as Ignition element A4EU Platform - Impact products - Forest Fires
  28. 28. Wildfire advancement probability A4EU Platform - Impact products - Forest Fires Predefined Critical points (click on it for information) Predefined Critical points (click on it for information)
  29. 29. Use of the A4LIG : use RISICO during 19 March 2019 fire in Liguria MOISTURE (%) RATE OF SPEED (m/h)
  30. 30. Use of the A4LIG : use RISICO during 19 March 2019 fire in Liguria
  31. 31. Use of the A4LIG : use RISICO during 19 March 2019 fire in Liguria
  32. 32. Use of the A4LIG : use RISICO during 19 March 2019 fire in Liguria
  33. 33. Use of the A4LIG : use RISICO during 19 March 2019 fire in Liguria
  34. 34. Use of the A4LIG : use RISICO during 19 March 2019 fire in Liguria
  35. 35. (but can be implemented ANYWHERE in EUROPE…) OPERATIONAL from OCTOBER 2018 SPAIN (national) 7 Pilot Sites: Operational Demonstrations Corsica Liguria Canton Bern Catalonia Rogaland South Savo
  36. 36. www.anywhere-h2020.euRequest a DEMo at

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