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Session 6: Scene-setting-Mainstreaming resilience in projects - Sophie Lavaud - OECD

  2. Indonesia is highly vulnerable to climate change • Indonesia: Top 1/3 of countries exposed to climate risks (INFORM Risk Index, 2019) • Climate risks in Indonesia – Sea-level rise – Landslides – Shift in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures – Floods and droughts • Indonesia is vulnerable to climate risks • High population density in hazard prone areas • Strong dependence on natural resource 2 Source: WB Climate Risk Profile Indonesia, 2022 Source: Climate Resilience Development Policy 2020-2045 Bappenas
  3. Infrastructure failure can lead to social hardship and economic losses by disrupting access to basic life lines:  Hurricane Katrina in (2005): power failure led to severe water contamination, due to purification and wastewater treatment plants seizing to function  Floods UK (2007): 350 000 people without access to mains water supply for over 2 weeks  Superstorm Sandy (2012): 5.4 million commuters stranded in NYC as roads and metro closed for at least 2 weeks  Floods Serbia (2014): 25% reduction in power due flooding of a coal mine  Australian Bushfires (2019/20): infra damages exceeded USD 26/hectare; Climate change impacts on infrastructure
  4.  Increased reliability of service provision (ex post and ex ante benefits)  Increased asset life (reduced maintenance costs; avoid need for costly retrofitting)  Reap co-benefits: some climate-resilience measures (use of natural components (e.g. green roofs; surrounding assets with permeable land) generate biodiversity, climate mitigation, or human wellbeing benefits 4 Benefits of climate resilient infrastructure USD 50 billion/year in flood defenses could reduce expected losses up to USD 1 trillion by 2050 (Hallegatte et al., 2013) Source: Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity (World Bank/ Hallegatte et al., 2019)
  5. “Climate-resilient infrastructure is infrastructure that is designed, built and operated in a way that anticipates, prepares for, and adapts to changing climate conditions… …it can also withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from disruptions caused by these climate conditions” (OECD, 2018) 5 What is climate-resilient infrastructure? Source: infrastructure.pdf
  6. 6 What is climate-resilient infrastructure? Source: infrastructure.pdf  Resilience measures are: o Fortify coastal infrastructure against flooding o Increase cooling system capacity for solar energy o Building on higher ground to prepare for sea-level rise o Implement program for pruning and managing trees near transmission lines
  8. 8 Planning and designing climate-resilient infrastructure Source: OECD/IADB Policy Evaluation Framework on the Governance of Critical Infrastructure Resilience in Latin America, 2017 Latin-America.pdf o Policies and regulations o Technical codes and standards o Facilitating climate risk disclosure o Voluntary guides, toolkits and standards o Designing appropriate financing strategies
  9.  Planning for climate resilient infrastructure requires climate risk assessment  Climate risk assessment aims at understanding and characterizing climate risks o Assessing hazards, vulnerability and exposure o Assess interdependent risks and cascading impacts at asset and operative level and beyond 9 Climate risk assessment Source: IPCC (2014): Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 2, Chapter 19 AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014 — IPCC
  10. 10  Resources available in the United Kingdom to support climate resilient infrastructure planning: o The Environment Agency provides data for flood- related parameters in their Flood Map used in infrastructure development o The Highways England Adaptation Framework Model: process to identify activities that will be affected by climate change and possible options to manage risks Climate risk assessment: examples Source: UK government service Check the long term flood risk for an area in England - GOV.UK ( Source: Clim’ADAPT Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Framework — English (
  11. OECD simulation of potential macro-economic impacts of Seine river flood in Paris region  1.5 million households and business customers could face power supply disruptions  More than half of the 250 km metro line could be closed (only 1 of 14 lines operational)  Road network disruptions could affect 5 motorways, several major highways and all bridge crossings over the Seine river  5 million customers could face disruptions to water supply 11 19 billion in business operating losses (i.e. 65% of the direct losses) Source: OECD (2014), Seine Basin, Île de France, 2014: Resilience to major floods, 9789264208728-en.htm. Understanding future infrastructure impacts
  12. 12  Climate-resilient infrastructure can be promoted through:  National level policies: o National Adaptation Plans/Strategies; o National Infrastructure Plans/Strategies; o Sectoral infrastructure development plans (transport, energy, water strategies)  (Sub)national Regulations: o Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) o Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) o e.g. South Africa: EIA on Port of Durban included a climate risk assessment – original design was adapted (heightened) to protect port from sea level rise National policies and regulations Port Durban, South Africa Source: and-port
  13. 13  Technical codes and standards need to be adapted to account for climate change impacts: o New York state utilities regulator: electric, gas and steam systems need to be protected against impacts from climate change; o France’s Nuclear Safety Agency updated water discharge regulation to adapt to heatwaves; o Korea Expressway Corporation adapted design standards to enhance drainage capacity, bridge design and embankment slopes; Technical codes and standards France Nuclear Power Stations during extreme heatwave Source: polemique-tristan-kamin-tribune/
  14. 14  Increased public disclosure of climate risks can encourage infrastructure resilience building by :  informing investment decisions  raise awareness  stimulate action  UK: Adaptation Reporting Power gives government power to require infrastructure providers to report on their CC risk exposure  USA: Securities and Exchange Commission: issued guidance that CC risks need to be disclosed Facilitating climate risk disclosure Source: Techtarget, C-chair-touts-benefits-of-climate-risk-disclosure-rule
  15. 15  Climate impacts will increase needs for infrastructure investment  Developing and communicating infrastructure plans can help investors identify investment opportunities  Public procurement processes can support climate resilience  Lenders and public funders can use risk screening to identify infrastructure resilience needs  Public finance can be used to mobilise private co-financing Financing strategies
  16.  Time horizons: benefits span beyond administrative/political cycles  Uncertainty about future: climate-resilient infrastructure needs to be prepared for range of different scenarios  Information and capacity: awareness and information on climate risks/projections not readily availale, in required resolution  Policy misalignments: can inadvertently distort incentives to act/discourage the use of innovative solutions  Externalities: many co-benefits may not result in generating revenues for operators 16 Challenges in developing climate resilient infrastructure
  17. 17 THANK YOU

Notas do Editor

  1. . Indonesia is one of the countries with the most important share of its population living in coastal areas that are particularly exposed to the impacts of floods, cyclones or rising sea levels. In addition, the agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors contribute to 13.7% of the country’s GDP and employ more than a third of the population. Changing precipitation patterns resulting in extensive drought periods or extreme floods create challenges to water management and threaten crop yields. The value of agricultural production could be reduced by 10% by 2050. Economic development and infrastructure expansion have also affected natural ecosystems that provide important benefits, including supporting adaptation and resilience to climate change (defined as ecosystem-based adaptation or nature-based solutions for resilience ).
  2. Climate-resilient infrastructure has the potential to improve the reliability of service provision, increase asset life and protect asset returns. Climate-resilient infrastructure reduces, but may not fully eliminate, the risk of climate-related disruptions
  3. Climate-resilient infrastructure has the potential to improve the reliability of service provision, increase asset life and protect asset returns. Climate-resilient infrastructure reduces, but may not fully eliminate, the risk of climate-related disruptions