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Session 2 - Presentation by Florian Egli

Session 2 - Presentation by Florian Egli

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Session 2 - Presentation by Florian Egli

  1. 1. Emerging Technologies and Firm Dynamics: Implications for Green Growth Issue note, GGSD Forum, 15th December 2015, OECD Paris Florian Egli (Mercator Fellow) and Nick Johnstone (OECD, STI) florian.egli@mercator-fellows.org, nick.johnstone@oecd.org
  2. 2. 22 Growth Low-carbon development Prosperity Fight climate change Green breakthrough innovation Technology neutral Support then exit and price Firm neutral Budget constraints? Reap investment benefits Signalling System inertia (path dependence) Under-Investment Bias Policies?
  3. 3. 33 Academic Small-firms Incumbent
  4. 4. Which technology? Which firm? I. DISCRETIONARY SUPPORT II. FIRM DYNAMICS III. PUBLIC POLICY IV. CONCLUSIONS
  5. 5. Discretionary technology support (1) 5 Generality is the only robust predictor of “success” (# of future patents, commercial applicability, risk finance) -> Cross-industry innovations are more successful -> CCMT are more general than the average R&D support is necessary, but evidence that existing portfolios are not optimal -> a number of promising green technologies will not become cost-competitive without support by 2030 -> expert elicitation can provide guidance with respect to technological, economic and societal potential -> statistical ex-post analysis can help identifying promising “attributes“ (e.g. closeness to science, radicalness, etc…)
  6. 6. 6 IPC code IPC code 2009-11 2001-03 A01P B32B B82Y C12P C40B F21V F21Y G02F G03F G06F G06G G06Q G06T G07F G08B H01B H01J H01L H01M H02J H04K H04L H04M H04N H04W H05B H05K IPC Classes A01 - Agriculture A61 - Medical science A63 - Sports, games, etc. B05 - Spraying, atomising, etc. B32 - Layered products B60 - Vehicles B82 - Nanotechnology C07 - Organic chemistry C09 - Dyes, paints, etc. C11 - Oils, fats and waxes C12 - Biochemistry C40 - Combinatorial Technology D06 - Treatment of Textiles F21 - Lighting F24 - Heating, ventilating, etc. G01 - Measuring, testing G02 - Optics G03 - Photography, etc. G05 - Controlling, regulating G06 - Computing G07 - Checking-devices G08 - Signalling, transmission G09 - Educating, display, etc. G11 - Information storage H01 - Basic electric elements H02 - Electric power H04 - Electric communication H05 - Electric techniques n.e.c. IP5 patent families 100 families Energy storage and distribution for electric and hybrid vehicles Semiconductors Lighting Nanotechnology Digital devices and cameras Computers and data processing Digital data acquisition Batteries Wireless and digital communication 1 000 families 5 000 families Spillovers are concentrated and co- occurances grow in environmental fields Discretionary technology support (2) Top 50 co-occurrences with burst intensity
  7. 7. 7 But current environmental regulations discourage firm entry Young firms drive green innovations Firm dynamics
  8. 8. 8 • Some of the most successful technologies received public support (internet, GPS, approx. 75% of breakthrough drugs) • Current R&D portfolios are ill-adapted to the need for breakthrough innovations Public policy – it depends And it is necessary Effectiveness to induce private finance Support mechanism High credit information (good market) Low credit information (bad market) Mature tech (e.g. onshore wind) FIT 0 + REQ + 0 Immature tech (e.g. solar PV) FIT + 0 REQ 0 0
  9. 9. 9 • Act now • Price carbon and ramp up R&D for clean(er) technologies • Cooperate internationally and between public and private • Global Apollo Program • Mission Innovation • Evaluate, (exit or continue), revise, share lessons learned • Participate in successful ventures • Keep the unborn in mind - design environmental policies accordingly (at least remove new source bias) The easy ones
  10. 10. 10 • Interact with the “crowd” • Increase and reallocate R&D – how? where to decrease? – and define sunset clause • Evaluate technology potential (overall and given national circumstances) • Analyze policies with respect to their differentiated effect depending on firm age and size • Lower finance access barriers for new green firms (i.e. by reducing policy risk) The tougher ones
  11. 11. Thank you for your attention Florian Egli (Mercator Fellow) and Nick Johnstone (OECD, STI) florian.egli@mercator-fellows.org, nick.johnstone@oecd.org

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