This document summarizes an expert workshop on adaptation that took place on June 18/19, 2014. The majority of OECD countries have developed national adaptation strategies or plans. At the workshop, participants discussed tools and methods used for adaptation planning and prioritization, including expert judgement, stakeholder engagement, cost-benefit analysis, and multi-criteria analysis. Challenges in adaptation planning include long time horizons, uncertainty, and data availability. The workshop aimed to discuss best practices and help countries prioritize adaptation measures.

1. EXPERT WORKSHOP
ON ADAPTATION:
JUNE 18/19, 2014
Michael Mullan

2. • Majority of OECD countries have
developed adaptation strategies / plans
2
Workshop purpose

3. Source: OECD Survey; n.b. 22/34 OECD countries have developed adaptation
strategies to date 3
Status of adaptation strategies
13
13
13
8
9
2
1
Adaptation strategy / Plan
Identification of specific policy measures to support
adaptation
Prioritisation of policy measures
Timetables for the implementation of adaptation
measures

4. What evidence influenced the choice of
measures?
• Expert judgement and involvement of stakeholders are the most widely used
techniques for prioritisation
• Limited uptake of cost-benefit / cost-effectiveness tools
2
4
7
3
13
13
Cost-benefit analysis
Cost-effectiveness analysis
Multi-criteria analysis
Uncertainty based approaches
Expert judgement
Stakeholder engagement/consultation
Countries may have multiple responses

5. Source: Survey results 5
Most countries have developed tools to
support policy mainstreaming
Yes, 13
In
progress, 2
No, 4

6. 6
Mainstreaming adaptation into
policy-making and project appraisal
Adaptation project appraisal
• Examples of innovative and sophisticated
treatment of uncertainty – e.g. TE210
• Focus of existing efforts to date.
Adapting policy and project appraisal
• First initiatives: “green” CBAs (UK), regulatory
impact assessments for regulations (Austria);
• Need for pragmatism, balancing rigour with
accessibility;
• Compatibility with existing systems.

7. 7

8. Chapter 1 – The role of economic analysis in supporting
adaptation
Chapter 2 – Adaptation costs and benefits from a global
and
regional perspective
Chapter 3 – Prioritising adaptation at the national level
Chapter 4 – Mainstreaming adaptation into
decision-making
Chapter 5 – Measuring success
8
Proposed chapter outlines

9. Challenges: complexity of adaptation planning
 methodological: long time-horizons, uncertainty, deficiencies in
quantification of costs and benefits of adaptation, lack of a
common metric
 practical: uneven data availability
Methodologies:
 climate impact assessments, CBAs, NAPAs, …
Documentation & assessment
 What can be learnt from the studies conducted to date?
 Strengths and limitations of different approaches and examples
of best practice
9
Prioritisation of government intervention
at the national level

10. Source: UK CCRA final report (2012) 10
Prioritisation of government intervention
at the national level
E.g. UK Climate Change
Risk Assessment
 Review of 700 potential climate
impacts
 Detailed analyses for 100 risks in
11 sectors
 Updated every 5 years
 Economics of Climate Resilience
project to support prioritisation
through identification of scale of
costs and benefits

11. • M&E currently behind planning & implementation
 Implementation is at an early stage, but growing body of practice
to draw upon
• Framework for M&E in adaptation will help to
 assess progress in adaptation by business, government and
communities
 provide public decision-makers with a body of information
 monitor changes in vulnerability to climate risks through the
compilation of quantitative data on trends
 facilitate mid-term adjustments
11
Measuring success

12. 12
Outputs and timeline
2013 2014
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Evidence
gathering
Paper sent to WPCID ∗
Analysis
Policy Forum ∗
Finalisation
Draft Chapter Review
(WPCID) ∗
Launch of final report
& policy paper ∗

13. 13
Next steps: input sought and priorities
Input requested
Any questions or clarification?
• Case studies sought for national planning, and examples of
mainstreaming into policy appraisal
• Creation of informal “contact group” on adaptation
• Participation and funding for forthcoming workshop
Michael.mullan@oecd.org

14. EXTRA
Source: Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons from
OECD Countries
14

15. “assist OECD and emerging economies in
prioritising measures for adaptation
planning, appraising adaptation measures
and, following implementation, on
monitoring and evaluation”
15
… with different approaches required to
answer different questions
Source: ENV/EPOC/WPCID(2013)3
Policy question: Techniques Examples
What are the global investment needs
for adapting to climate change (in
developing countries)?
I&FF, Sectoral
models
World Bank (2006,
2010),
UNFCCC(2007)
What are the global costs of failing to
mitigate / adapt to climate change?
IAMs, Impact
Assessments
AD-DICE / AD-
RICE, CIRCLE
What are the adaptation priorities at
the national level?
MCA, CBA,
CGE
UK ECR, DELTA
study, NAPAs
How can investment decisions be
climate-proofed?
CEA, CBA,
ROA, RDM
UKCIP, “Green
Book”