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Kato (oecd) durable2015 ccxg gf march2014

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Kato (oecd) durable2015 ccxg gf march2014

  1. 1. Climate Change Expert Group www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg.htm Takayoshi Kato, OECD takayoshi.kato@oecd.org Based on the discussion paper “Built to Last: Designing a Flexible and Durable 2015 Climate Change Agreement” by Gregory Briner, Takayoshi Kato and Takashi Hattori Revisiting and adjustment processes for the 2015 agreement CCXG Global Forum 18 March 2014
  2. 2. 2 Climate Change Expert Group Presentation Outline Outline of different options for flexibility before and after 2015 Processes before COP21 Processes after COP21 Discussion questions
  3. 3. 3 Climate Change Expert Group Before and after the 2015 agreement There could be different ways of including flexibility in the 2015 agreement before and after COP21;  Providing enough flexibility;  Encouraging broader participation  Keeping the below 2°C goal within reach;  Enhancing predictability for investors Balance needed between… Consultation processes Revisiting & Adjustment Adoption of the 2015 agreement Before After
  4. 4. Consultation processes- Before 2015 agreement
  5. 5. 5 Climate Change Expert Group Possible consultations on intended contributions before COP 21 in 2015  Enhance understanding of intended mitigation contributions  Raise ambition by identifying opportunities for enhanced co-operation and co-ordination Potential aims of the consultations:  Which Parties?  Timeline?  Who would be involved?  Forms of outputs?  Guidance? (if any) Open questions to clarify:
  6. 6. Revisiting and adjustment processes - After 2015 agreement
  7. 7. 7 Climate Change Expert Group Process for revisiting and adjustment Possible approach to establishing revisiting and adjustment processes for mitigation contributions It could be applied to other aspects of the agreement. (e.g. adaptation, finance, etc.) Adoption of the 2015 agreement RevisitinRevisitin gg AdjustmeAdjustme ntnt
  8. 8. 8 Climate Change Expert Group Revisiting the contributions i) Periodic ii) Triggered iii) Ad hoc The 2015 agreement Adjustme nt •Higher predictability of timetable •More efficient by revisiting only when needed •Higher flexibility for partiesPro Con •Increasing uncertainty and transaction cost if too frequent •Politically difficult to agree the nature of triggers •Might be revisited too often, or not at all
  9. 9. 9 Climate Change Expert Group Options for the triggers a) Quantitative b) Qualitative c) Call by others ii) Triggered The 2015 agreement Adjustme nt • Annual GHG emissions • Atmospheric GHG concentration etc. • Natural disasters • New scientific findings etc. • Call for contributions of another Party revisited The POPs Protocol FTA (Australia, NZ, ASEAN) WTO (Dispute Settlement System)
  10. 10. 10 Climate Change Expert Group Adjusting the contributions 3 options for adjustment of mitigation contributions. Yet, the focus would be on upward (strengthening) adjustment in light of the goal of the Convention. Strengthen ing Weakening Upward No adj. • Encourage ambitious initial offer • Facilitate broader participation • Discourage pulling out later • May result in insufficient near- term collective ambition Downward Advantage Disadvantage No adj. Upward
  11. 11. 11 Climate Change Expert Group Discussion questions 1. How to strike the right balance between including flexibility in the agreement, providing predictability for investors and ensuring environmental ambition? 2. What type of process is most likely to result in mitigation contributions that are collectively ambitious enough to keep the below 2-degree goal within reach? 3. Under what conditions, if any, could downward adjustments (i.e. weakening) of mitigation contributions take place?