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ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Session 4 - Tomasz KOZLUK

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ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Session 4 - Tomasz KOZLUK
"Environmental policies and economic outcomes: what can we learn from firms and industries?"

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ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Session 4 - Tomasz KOZLUK

  1. 1. Tomasz Kozluk, OECD Global Forum on Environment (and Growth) 25th October 2016 Environmental policies and economic outcomes: what can we learn from firms and industries?
  2. 2. • Measuring policies – Stringency (EPS) – Burdens to entry and competition (BEEP) • Measuring economic effects – Stringent policies have effects, – Effects are significant, but small, – Winners and losers. • How can we design policy packages to: – Reallocate from losers to winners? – Turn losers into winners? OECD: Environmental policies and their economic effects
  3. 3. - Financial statements of publicly traded companies, - Business registries, tax registries, trade inventories - Dedicated surveys (e.g. manufacturing, investment, innovation), - Other sources, “privately” collected (eg ORBIS, Patstat, GIS, GPS), - Pollution Release Inventories (PRTRs, EU ETS sub.), - Field trials & related data - Voluntary disclosure Firm (& plant) data – what can we work with? Some examples Counterfactuals: who they cover, who they don’t cover? Availability/ existence (eg over time) Do they cover what we are interested in? Representativeness/ sampling Confidentiality Strategic responses/ lack of response, credibility & reliability Comparability (eg across countries)
  4. 4. Environmental policies, energy prices and investment – not an obvious win-win Preliminary results Source: Dlugosch and Kozluk , (2016 forthcoming), Energy prices, environmental policies and investment – evidence from listed firms
  5. 5. Other things are more important for outward FDI than environemtal policies Preliminary results Source: Garsous and Kozluk , (2016 forthcoming), FDI and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis.
  6. 6. Across industries: a (small) pollution haven effect… Source: Kozluk and Timiliotis, (2016), Do environmental policies affect global value chains? A new perspective on the pollution haven hypothesis. 6
  7. 7. More stringent environmental policies: winners and losers Source: Kozluk and Timiliotis, (2016), Do environmental policies affect global value chains? A new perspective on the pollution haven hypothesis. 7
  8. 8. Productivity growth. Across firms: advanced firms gain – laggards lose Source: Albrizio et al. (2014), Do environmental policies matter for productivity growth? Insights from new measures of environmental policies 8
  9. 9. Unintended(?) consequences of vintage differentiated air pollution policies Predictedlifeofacoal-firedpowerplant Percentiles of degree of VDR (distribution across countries) 0=equal norms for incumbents and new entrants 100=most differentiated Preliminary results
  10. 10. Tomasz.Kozluk@oecd.org http://oe.cd/eps Thank you!

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