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Session 3 Martin Baur and Pierre Alain Bruchez- Swtizerland

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Climate Change and Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability
Green Budgeting Virtual Meeting - 17 March 2020

Publicada em: Governo e ONGs
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Session 3 Martin Baur and Pierre Alain Bruchez- Swtizerland

  1. 1. Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD Eidgenössische Finanzverwaltung EFV Climate Change and Long-term Fiscal Sustainability Video Conference – OECD 17 March 2020 Joint OECD Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting – 3rd Experts Meeting and the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action – 1st Workshop on Helsinki Principle Four Pierre-Alain Bruchez Swiss Federal Finance Administration
  2. 2. 2 Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD Eidgenössische Finanzverwaltung EFV Overview and Scope of the Paper Objective: to gather information on how countries take account of the long-term fiscal impact of climate change in their fiscal sustainability reports or similar fiscal publications Climate Change and Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, P.-A. Bruchez, ÖAB EFV Video Conference – OECD 17.03.2020
  3. 3. 3 Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD Eidgenössische Finanzverwaltung EFV Environment, Economics and Public budget Climate Change and Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, P.-A. Bruchez, ÖAB EFV Video Conference – OECD 13.03.2020
  4. 4. 4 Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD Eidgenössische Finanzverwaltung EFV Uncertainties Climate Change and Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, P.-A. Bruchez, ÖAB EFV Video Conference – OECD 17.03.2020 Uncertainties about the environmental impact • Future emissions • Extreme weather events • Positive and negative feed-backs • Biological impact (viruses included) • Tipping points Uncertainties about the economic impact • New technologies • Adaptation • Conflicts • Overall cost of mitigation policies • Related: preferences (risk aversion, discount rate, equity concern) Uncertainties about the fiscal impact • Structure of mitigation policies? • Allocation of adaptation costs between private agents and State? • Need for increased redistribution and stabilization policies? • Positive: non-market impact is less relevant for fiscal impact Uncertainties make it difficult to quantify the impact of climate change
  5. 5. 5 Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD Eidgenössische Finanzverwaltung EFV Qualitative Studies Climate Change and Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, P.-A. Bruchez, ÖAB EFV Video Conference – OECD 13.03.2020 Country Date Results Author Switzer- land 2016 Brief description of channels Prevention, damage remediation and adaptation, international commitments, impact on fiscal revenues FFA UK 2019 Link with existing reports - Climate-change risk assessment - Network for Greening the Financial System - Bank of England’s framework for assessing climate-related risks to financial stability (physical/transition risks) Discussion of fiscal risks Extreme weather events, gradual global warming, economic impact of mitigation policies OBR UE 2020 Methodological challenges Data availability, modelling tools, taxonomy of climate-related fiscal costs Transmission channels Impact of extreme weather events and gradual transformation of the environment on land, capital, labour, productivity Examples of fiscal impacts - Non-discretionary (direct/indirect) - Discretionary (adaptation/mitigation) EC
  6. 6. 6 Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD Eidgenössische Finanzverwaltung EFV Quantitative studies (official) Climate Change and Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, P.-A. Bruchez, ÖAB EFV Video Conference – OECD 17.03.2020 Country Date Results Author US 2016 “although the combined weight of the quantified mean expenditure estimates in the assessments in this report reaches into the tens of billions to hundreds of billions per year by late-century, this is only a narrow window into the full fiscal risks of climate change” [GDP in 2016 was 19 Trillion US$] - Impact for mid-century and late-century on wildland- fire suppression, crop insurance, air quality and healthcare, coastal-disaster relief. - Identification of flood risks to federal property - Illustrative quantification of lost revenues OMB
  7. 7. 7 Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD Eidgenössische Finanzverwaltung EFV Quantitative studies (not official) Climate Change and Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, P.-A. Bruchez, ÖAB EFV Video Conference – OECD 13.03.2020 Country Date Results Author Germany 2009 Climate change could eventually become a burden for public finances equal to demographic change. However, the peaks of those two burdens will hit public finances at different times. 2050 (temperature increase in Germany: 1.5°C 2021–2050 relative to 1961-1990)(*) Fiscal impact (in % of GDP): gain of 0.05% to loss of 0.31% (see their Table 37) 2100 (temperature increase in Germany: 2°C in 2071–2100 relative to 1961-1990)(*) Fiscal impact (in % of GDP): loss of 0.6% to 2.5% (see their Table 38) Case studies: international trade, tourism, damages to buildings, sea level, etc. Mainly due to impact on fiscal revenues Main channel (by far): international trade Uncertainty analysed by Monte-Carlo simulation Not all impacts could be quantified. (*) see their Table 9 Infras/ Ecologic
  8. 8. 8 Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD Eidgenössische Finanzverwaltung EFV Quantitative studies (not official) Climate Change and Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, P.-A. Bruchez, ÖAB EFV Video Conference – OECD 13.03.2020 Country Date Results Author Austria 2019 Time horizon: 2050 (Austria: average annual temperature increases by 2.02°C relative to 1981–2010) Reduction in non-climate related government consumption: 1.4%. The reduction of fiscal revenues is somewhat below 600 million euros and the increase of public expenditures (abstracting from the reduction of government consumption imposed to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio) is of about the same magnitude. Impact fields: Agriculture, Forestry, Electricity, Tourism, Catastrophe Management, and rest: Heating and Cooling, Water, Transport, Manufacturing and Trade, Cities and Urban Green. Computable general equilibrium The authors analyse counterbalancing instruments to ensure fiscal stability and unchanged public service provision. Labour tax fares much worse than the other instruments considered. In their model, featuring minimum wage, climate change increases unemployment which plays a key role. Bachner Bednar- Friedl
  9. 9. 9 Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD Eidgenössische Finanzverwaltung EFV Connected Studies • Fiscal impact of adaptation e.g. CEPS and ZEW (2010) and World Bank (2010) • Fiscal instruments for GHG emissions mitigation e.g. IMF (2019a), IMF (2019b), Krogstrup and Oman (2019) • Economic impact e.g. Stern (2007), OECD (2015a), Nordhaus (2018b) • Impact on the financial market e.g. NGFS (2019), IMF (2019c) • Short-term fiscal impact Other areas of green budgeting • Framework e.g. Batten (2018) See full references in the scoping paper Climate Change and Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, P.-A. Bruchez, ÖAB EFV Video Conference – OECD 17.03.2020
  10. 10. 10 Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD Eidgenössische Finanzverwaltung EFV Issues for Discussion - Questionnaire 0 Do you have comments on the scoping paper? 1 What are the fiscal policy issues related to climate change that you will have to manage in the medium or long term? 2 Are there studies assessing the economic impact of climate change on your country? 3 Have you done preliminary studies for the computation of the long-run fiscal impact of climate change in your country? 4 Have you actually analysed the long-run fiscal impact of climate change in your country? 5 Availability 6 If you have not yet started to analyse the long-run fiscal impact of climate change in your country… • Where do you see the key elements of a qualitative or quantitative approach for discussing and modelling climate change within fiscal sustainability analysis? • What do you consider to be the main limitations that could (or could not) be overcome within a fiscal sustainability analytical framework. Climate Change and Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, P.-A. Bruchez, ÖAB EFV Video Conference – OECD 17.03.2020

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