2013 MBAA/NAMS presentation, "Transition from Late-Career Displacement to Employability: How Older Knowledge Workers Confront Labor Market Adversity" John F. Fruner, Baker College

1. TRANSITION FROM LATE-CAREER
DISPLACEMENT TO EMPLOYABILITY:
How Older Knowledge Workers Overcome Labor
Market Adversity
John F. Fruner
Doctoral Candidate, Business Administration
Baker College Center for Graduate Studies
Flint, Michigan
A Research in Progress Presentation
North American Management Society
Distinguished Paper Award Winner in
Human Resource Management
49th Annual MBAA/NAMS Conference
February 27, 2013

2. The Older Worker Profile project was announced by the U.S.
Census Bureau on June 18, 2007 to study employment and
retirement trends among Americans over age 45.
“The retirement of baby boomers will have a huge
impact on the work force,” said Census Bureau Director
Louis Kincannon. “Businesses and planners need a better
understanding of labor force trends, the loss of
experienced workers and the payout of retirement
benefits.”
Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois were not included in the 31-state
project.
The most recent Indiana data were published before the
Great Recession began, and for Wisconsin, three months
after. (U.S. Census Bureau, 2007)
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John
F.
Fruner
2013
2

3. We don’t know as much as we should
about older workers . . .
. . . especially about those who were
displaced in the 2007-2009 recession.
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John
F.
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4. Conceptual Foundations for This Study
1
Jobseekers overcoming Michigan
labor market adversity by finding
rewarding employment are making a
significant collective contribution to
economic recovery.
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5. Conceptual Foundation 1:
Jobseekers overcoming Michigan labor market
adversity by finding rewarding employment are
making a significant collective contribution to
economic recovery.
• What is labor market adversity?
• What are some trends in job loss and
reentry?
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F.
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6. What is labor market adversity?
Michigan, June 2009 – official “end of
the recession” nationally
• Unemployment: 15.2%
• Estimates of underemployment:
25%
• Highest unemployment in the U.S.
for the 12th consecutive month . . .
worst level since 1984 for any state
(Rooney, 2009)
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F.
Fruner
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7. U.S. National Labor Market: Slow Recovery
Worst recovery conditions in 11 American recessions since 1948
Employment still 2.4% below November 2006 peak
Figure
1.
Percentage
of
American
job
loss
from
inter-­‐recession
peak
levels,
1948-­‐2012
(McBride,
2013)
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F.
Fruner
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8. Figure
1.
Percentage
of
American
job
loss
from
inter-­‐recession
peak
levels,
1948-­‐2012
(McBride,
2013)
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F.
Fruner
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9. Michigan, 2013
Good news:
§ “Sixth-fastest growing economy in the
nation” (Governor Rick Snyder, January 2013)
§ Average 2012 employment in 55+ age group was
888,000 (52% of 55-64 group, 14% of 65+)
§ 2012 unemployment rate in 50+ age group was
2-3% below the 8.9% total workforce rate (U.S.
Census Current Population Survey data, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, 2013a)
Bad news (a.k.a. opportunity):
§ 65,000 in 55+ age group and 76,000 aged
45-54 are unemployed jobseekers (BLS, 2013a)
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F.
Fruner
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10. Employment Status of U.S. Workers Displaced 2009-2011
Gray areas - Age 55-
and-over displaced
workers (red outline)
are now jobseekers
more than retirees
Orange - Displaced
older jobseekers are
unemployed at
rates three or more
times the rates of
their age groups
Women (all ages)
less likely to be
employed than men
(Adapted from Bureau of
Labor Statistics, 2012)
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John
F.
Fruner
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11. 2/27/2013
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F.
Fruner
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12. Age 60 no longer means retirement, for 29.4%
Nearly one in three
workers aged 60 and
older are now in the
civilian labor force,
having either
remained or returned
(Weber, 2013)
Not surprising,
since median U.S.
net worth dropped
38.8% from 2007 to
2010 (Bricker, et al.,
2012), to 1992
levels (Mui, 2012)
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John
F.
Fruner
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13. Poor reemployment rate among
displaced older workers
(unused existing labor supply)
+
Increasing workforce participation
aspirations by older workers
(increasing supply trend)
Key trend: Older knowledge workers constitute
a large and growing proportion of total
underutilized Michigan and U.S. labor supply
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John
F.
Fruner
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14. Q: Are There Jobs in This Economy?
December
2012
data
for
12
Midwestern
States
(Bureau
of
Labor
Sta.s.cs,
2013b)
Nonfarm
job
openings,
unadjusted:
774,000,
about
2.5%
of
total
employment
and
opportuniRes
Note:
Midwest
regional
data
are
not
necessarily
representa8ve
of
Michigan.
North
Dakota
and
five
other
Midwestern
states
other
than
Michigan
are
included,
all
with
strong
job
crea8on
and
hiring
rates
rela8ve
to
U.S.
rates
(Jones,
2013)
Consensus:
Stronger
labor
demand
in
2012
vs.
2008-­‐
2011,
likely
to
conRnue
and
grow
at
a
modest
rate
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John
F.
Fruner
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15. Labor demand is rebounding in Michigan,
but still underutilizing labor supply
470
jobs
posted
by
“Age
50+
friendly
firms”
on
2/18/2013
on
a
public
job
board
(SimplyHired.com)
January
2013
data
(all
occupaRons)*
140,333
online
help-­‐wanted
job
posRngs
413,000
reported
unemployed
*Michigan
Labor
Market
Informa8on
Dashboard
data
based
on
Conference
Board/Haver
Analy8cs
study
of
U.S.
Bureau
of
Labor
Sta8s8cs
surveys
(Michigan
Department
of
Technology,
Management
&
Budget,
2013)
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John
F.
Fruner
2013
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16. Conceptual Foundations for This Study
2 Large numbers of displaced older
knowledge workers still seeking new jobs
suggest their reemployment is a
compelling socioeconomic opportunity.
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Fruner
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17. Conceptual Foundation 2:
Large numbers of displaced older knowledge workers
in Michigan are seeking new jobs.
Their reemployment is a compelling socioeconomic
opportunity.
What characteristics and experiences do
displaced knowledge workers have in
common?
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F.
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18. Anecdotal knowledge / a priori themes
Ø This was not their career plan
Ø Most are not proficient in job search,
surprised that their traditional job search
knowledge is no longer effective
Ø Many are highly motivated to seek
support and guidance
Ø They know someone who has found work
but aren’t sure how they did it
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19. Conceptual Foundations for This Study
3 Employment might be the ultimate
goal of jobseekers, but the practical goal
of a successful post-displacement late-
career employment transition is
employability.
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F.
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20. Conceptual Foundation 3:
Employment might be the ultimate goal of
jobseekers, but the practical goal of a successful post-­‐‑
displacement late-­‐‑career employment transition is
employability.
Employability is the antecedent of employment over
which the jobseeker has the greatest amount of
control, and is more likely to ensure continued
employment than seniority or other traditional assets
(Arthur & Rousseau, 1996, cited in paper).
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F.
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21. Conceptual Foundations for This Study
4 The best paths to successful
transitions from late-career displacement
to renewed employability are paths that
have worked for employed jobseekers.
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22. Conceptual Foundation 4:
The best paths to successful transitions from late-­‐‑career
displacement to renewed employability are paths that have
worked for employed jobseekers.
Learning from success cases can contribute
toward improving poor success rates.
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23. Abstract
The American labor force is changing to include a
growing number of older people who choose to
remain gainfully employed in a variety of occupations.
Those who are displaced in later stages of their careers face
especially difficult challenges.
U.S. national research indicates that for every
displaced older worker (born before 1965) who
succeeds in reentering rewarding employment, at least
one other does not. Displaced workers are
unemployed at significantly higher rates than others in
their age groups.
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24. Abstract
This doctoral dissertation research will explore the
under-researched experiences of knowledge workers
who found their way back to the workplace after late-
career exits.
The objective of this study is to yield lessons to
benefit late-career jobseekers, labor market
intermediaries, and employers in how knowledge
workers can develop and sustain late-career
employability, an attribute that is likely to grow in
significance as knowledge workers increasingly seek
to extend their careers.
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F.
Fruner
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25. Synopsis of Literature Review
1 Career researchers have rarely addressed
the phenomenon of successful late-career
transition after displacement, especially in the
context of unusually persistent adverse labor
market conditions
• Publications are primarily non-­‐‑academic
whitepapers from public/private centers and
think tanks
• Primary focus: Plight of the unsuccessful
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F.
Fruner
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26. Synopsis of Literature Review
2 Numerous quantitative studies of
unemployment, retirement, and job search
fail to provide adequate understanding of
the underlying reasons for low success rates
among older jobseekers, or to illuminate
factors associated with success
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F.
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27. Synopsis of Literature Review
3 Qualitative research is needed with regional
perspective, 50+ age-group focus, and post-
recession context to explore how and why
success is achievable
Research models cited in paper (and one potential model)
• 2004 Midwestern study of college graduates
(Ebberwein, et al.)
• 2007 Australian study of 30s age group (McArdle,
Waters, Briscoe, Hall)
• 2012 U.K. study of older workers (AOM, unpublished)
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28. The Research Problem
Existing theory and understanding
grounded in research are inadequate to
explain how and why some knowledge
workers succeed in making late-career
transitions to new work after a period of
unemployment . . .
. . . while others who seem equally
employable do not.
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29. Purposes of This Research
To discover how late-career jobseekers
successfully transition from displacement to
employability,
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F.
Fruner
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30. Purposes of This Research
To discover how late-career jobseekers
successfully transition from displacement to
employability,
build a foundation for new theory,
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F.
Fruner
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31. Purposes of This Research
To discover how late-career jobseekers
successfully transition from displacement to
employability,
build a foundation for new theory,
learn possible reasons why displaced workers
seem more likely to be unemployed than others
in their age groups,
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F.
Fruner
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32. Purposes of This Research
To discover how late-career jobseekers
successfully transition from displacement to
employability,
build a foundation for new theory,
learn possible reasons why displaced workers
seem more likely to be unemployed than others
in their age groups,
and address the real-world problem that only half
of displaced jobseekers at age 55-64, and one in
four 65 or older, succeed in such transitions
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012)
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F.
Fruner
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33. If we could visualize a model for achieving
and maintaining employability after late-
career displacement, what would it look like?
Figure
4.
Late-­‐career
employability
transiRon
model,
with
labels
indicaRng
how
elements
relate
to
the
research
problem
(RP)
and
research
quesRons
(RQ1
through
RQ4)
of
this
study
(Fruner,
2013).
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F.
Fruner
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34. 2/27/2013
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Fruner
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35. Research Question 1
What do older jobseekers in knowledge
occupations do differently to achieve
successful post-displacement transitions?
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F.
Fruner
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36. Research Question 2
How do labor market intermediaries
(LMIs) support older jobseekers effectively
in post-displacement transitions?
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F.
Fruner
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37. Research Question 3
How do employers contribute to
successful late-career reemployment after
displacement?
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F.
Fruner
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38. Research Question 4
How do external resources and environmental
factors other than LMIs and employers positively
influence workforce participation among
displaced older jobseekers?
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F.
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39. Methodology Overview
• Multiple case study approach with semi-structured
responsive depth interviews (primary
methodological models cited in paper are Yin,
Stake, Rubin & Rubin)
• Focus on success cases (ref. Brinkerhoff, cited in
paper)
• Bracketing interview to document researcher bias
(to eliminate a key threat to internal validity)
• Pilot testing of interview questions and themes
• Thematic analysis using codes developed from a
priori and emergent themes
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F.
Fruner
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40. Potential Participant Examples
Posi:on
Before
Late-­‐Career
Current
Posi:on
(All
With
Code
Gender*
Displacement
or
Exit
New
Organiza:ons)
A
F
Program
Manager,
AutomoRve
Engineer,
AutomoRve
B
M
Director-­‐Quality,
AutomoRve
Professor,
Higher
EducaRon
C
F
Manager-­‐Sales,
AutomoRve
Director-­‐OperaRons,
Manufacturing
D
M
Editor,
Newspaper
Editor,
Newspaper
E
F
Manager-­‐Sales,
Home
Goods
Self-­‐Employed
F
M
Engineer,
AutomoRve
Registered
Nurse
G
F
Development
Officer,
Higher
Development
Officer,
Higher
EducaRon
EducaRon
H
M
Manager-­‐Sales,
AutomoRve
Project
Coordinator,
ResidenRal
ConstrucRon
* Goal is to recruit 3-4 men and 3-4 women for insight into gender perspectives
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F.
Fruner
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41. Dissertation Status and Plan
ü Proposal
(IntroducRon,
Literature
Review,
Methodology)
approved
by
dissertaRon
commifee
ü Research
applicaRon
approved
by
InsRtuRonal
Review
Board
(IRB)
ü Researcher
brackeRng
interview
and
pilot
interviews
within
two
weeks
ü Research
interviews,
analysis
begin
in
March
ü CompleRon
and
defense
in
August
2013
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F.
Fruner
2013
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42. Questions?
2/27/2013
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John
F.
Fruner
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43. Author Information
John F. Fruner
Orion Township, MI
248-­‐‑802-­‐‑3915
john.f.fruner@gmail.com
Doctoral Candidate in Business
Administration, Baker College
Center for Graduate Studies
MBAA/NAMS 2013 Presentation:
Transition From Late-­‐‑Career
Displacement to Employability:
How Older Knowledge Workers
Overcome Labor Market
Adversity
2/27/2013
©
John
F.
Fruner
2013
43

44. Presentation References
Bricker,
J.,
Kennickell,
A.B.,
Moore,
K.B.,
&
Sabelhaus,
J.
(2012,
June).
Changes
in
U.S.
family
finances
from
2007
to
2010:
Evidence
from
the
survey
of
consumer
finances.
Federal
Reserve
BulleRn,
98(2),
Board
of
Governors
of
the
Federal
Reserve
System,
Division
of
Research
and
StaRsRcs.
Retrieved
February
17,
2013
from
hfp://www.federalreserve.gov/
pubs/bulleRn/2012/PDF/scf12.pdf
Bureau
of
Labor
StaRsRcs,
U.S.
Department
of
Labor
(2012,
August
28).
Employment
status
of
displaced
workers.
Retrieved
February
3,
2013
from
hfp://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2012/ted_20120828.htm,
data
from
hfp://
www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2012/ted_20120828_data.htm
Bureau
of
Labor
StaRsRcs
(2013a,
January).
Preliminary
2012
data
on
employment
status
by
state
and
demographic
group.
Retrieved
February
24,
2013
from
hfp://www.bls.gov/lau/,
data
in
ptable14full2012.xls
and
notes
at
hfp://
www.bls.gov/lau/pnote14full2012.pdf
Bureau
of
Labor
StaRsRcs
(2013b,
February).
Job
openings
lifle
changed
at
3.6
million
in
December
(news
release).
Retrieved
February
12,
2013
from
hfp://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf
Fruner,
J.F.
(2013).
TransiRon
from
late-­‐career
displacement
to
employability:
How
older
knowledge
workers
overcome
labor
market
adversity.
Unpublished
manuscript.
Author’s
personal
library.
Jones,
J.M.
(2013,
February
6).
North
Dakota,
Midwestern
states
lead
U.S.
in
hiring.
Gallup
Economy
(electronic
newslefer).
Retrieved
February
12,
2013
from
hfp://www.gallup.com/poll/160325/north-­‐dakota-­‐midwestern-­‐states-­‐
lead-­‐hiring.aspx
McBride,
W.
(2013,
February
1).
January
employment
report:
157,000
Jobs,
7.9%
unemployment
rate.
Calculated
Risk
Finance
and
Economics
(online
newslefer).
Retrieved
February
2,
2013,
from
hfp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
2013/02/january-­‐employment-­‐report-­‐157000-­‐jobs.html
2/27/2013
©
John
F.
Fruner
2013
44

45. Presentation References (continued)
Michigan
Department
of
Technology,
Management
&
Budget
(2013).
Labor
Market
InformaRon
(LMI)
Dashboard.
Retrieved
February
11,
2013
from
hfp://milmi.org/?PAGEID=67&SUBID=215
Mui,
Y.Q.
(2012,
June
11).
Americans
saw
wealth
plummet
40
percent
from
2007
to
2010,
Federal
Reserve
says.
The
Washington
Post,
Home/CollecRons/Americans.
Retrieved
February
17,
2013
from
hfp://arRcles.washingtonpost.com/
2012-­‐06-­‐11/business/35461572_1_median-­‐balance-­‐median-­‐income-­‐families
Rooney,
B.
(2009,
July
17).
Michigan
unemployment
tops
15%.
CNNMoney.com.
Retrieved
February
3,
2013
from
hfp://
money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/state_unemployment_report/index.htm
SimplyHired.com
(2013,
February
18).
Michigan
statewide
job
posRng
search
performed
at
hfp://
www.simplyhired.com/
Snyder,
R.
(2013,
January
27).
Gov.
Rick
Snyder:
Job
creaRon
strategies
are
working
for
Michigan.
Detroit
Free
Press.
Retrieved
February
1,
2013
from
hfp://www.freep.com/arRcle/20130127/OPINION05/301270114/Gov-­‐Rick-­‐Snyder-­‐
Job-­‐creaRon-­‐strategies-­‐are-­‐working-­‐for-­‐Michigan?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s
The
Conference
Board
(2013,
January
30).
Online
labor
demand
up
106,900
in
January.
The
Conference
Board
Help
Wanted
Online®
(HWOL)
Data
Series.
Retrieved
February
11,
2013
from
hfp://www.conference-­‐board.org/data/
helpwantedonline.cfm
U.S.
Census
Bureau
(2007,
June
18).
Census
Bureau
launches
older
worker
profiles
for
31
states
(news
release).
Retrieved
February
24,
2013
from
hfp://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/aging_populaRon/cb07-­‐86.html
Weber,
L.
(2013,
January
31).
U.S.
Department
of
Labor
(2012,
August
28).
Americans
rip
up
reRrement
plans.
The
Wall
Street
Journal,
U.S.
EdiRon.
Retrieved
February
3,
2013
from
hfp://online.wsj.com/arRcle/
SB10001424127887323926104578276241741448064.html?mod=wsj_valetbofom_email
2/27/2013
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John
F.
Fruner
2013
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