1. The Blob, El Niño, and the Drought in Puget Sound
ChristopherKrembs,Marine Monitoring Unit, EAP, Ecology
The Blob
The Drought
El Niño

2. Warmest first four months since 1981,
(Source: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space)

3. The snow has melted early or came down as rain
Hurricane Ridge:
winter snow is gone.
Lowsnow has only occurred
twice since 1960
(1977 & 2005).
April 2010
Feb2013
March2015
Photo by Bill Baccus, Olympic National Park
June 2015

4. Puget Sound Basin >30% of expected
Snow Water Equivalence

5. • Mostrivers and streams
are at or below 10thpercentile
in greater PugetSound
Basin
• Severalwestern regions are
experiencing record low flows
By June 1, 2015,most rivers and streamsare at or below 10thpercentile
Many rivers and streams are much below normal

6. Record low-flows of some Puget Sound rivers (USGS)
SnoqualmieRiver Flow only 25% of normal
Puyallup River 6/4/ dailymean flow levels belowthe
regulatoryminimum
2014 2015

7. The Fraser River has been running very high.
The “freshet” is much earlier in 2015
Higher thannormal
Lower thannormal
Expected
FraserRiver is the largest freshwatersource of Salish Sea affecting estuarine circulation

9. The Blob + El Niño
invadesPacific,
flummoxing climate experts
2013-2015
Sea SurfaceTemperature(SST)anomaly,29
January2014
Oneweek mean sea surfacetemperature
anomaly8-14March2015.
Sea Surface Anomalies
Persistentmassof warm wateraffects:
•oceancurrents,
•marineecosystems
•inlandweather

10. The “Blob” in 2014, (NOAA)

11. The Blob hits Washington shores!
Timing of coastal winds is important!
YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2014 -17 -72 -34 -14 2 24 34 35 -1 -62 -49 -88
2015 -49 -27 -18
Upwelling index (NOAA)

12. Until September 2014 upwelled water keeps warm water offshore
Coastal Upwelling
Rain-fed riversSnow-fedriversUpwelling
Downwelling Estuarinecirculation Tidalexchange
Victoria
Seattle
snowpack
spring-neap cycle
tidal mixing
over the sillestuarine
circulation
Fraser
Skagit
SanJuan Islands
Straitof Juan de Fuca Admiralty R. PugetSound
upwelled water low
DO , high nutrients

13. After September 2014 downwelling starts and brings in warm water
Downwelling
Rain-fed riversSnow-fedriversUpwelling
Downwelling Estuarinecirculation Tidalexchange
Victoria
Seattle
snowpack
spring-neap cycle
tidal mixing
over the sillestuarine
circulation
Fraser
Skagit
SanJuan Islands
Straitof Juan de Fuca Admiralty R. PugetSound
downwelled warmer,
lower nutrients, lower
salinity, LOWER DO

14. Ecology’s Marine Monitoring Stations
Sampled by a “great team” to full depth every month
ChristopherKrembs
SkipAlbertson
Laura Friedenberg
Julia Bos
Carol Maloy
Mya Keyzers
SuzanPool
Brooke McIntyre
Julianne Ruffner

15. Conditions weredominated by warm water associated with the NE Pacific Ocean warmsurfaceanomaly.
Starting in October, temperatures are the higheston our record since 1989. Oxygen and salinities are
becoming lower.
Apr. 2015:
Higher Temperature! LowerOxygenLowerSalinity
Redboxes
show that the
water
measuredis
warmer than
any of our
measurements
since 1989.
Eyes Over Puget Sound
Marine Long-TermMonitoring Program

16. Warm low DO water enters Puget Sound
Central Sound Stations 1999-2013 Central Sound last 12 months…
Temperatureand Salinity define Density
(Density-1000=Sigma)

17. Warm low DO water enters Puget Sound
Central Sound Stations 1999-2013 Central Sound last 12 months…
Temperatureand Salinity define Density
(Density-1000=Sigma)

18. Ferry monitoring observations 6-8-2015
Surface water (3m) in places already >15°C
TheVictoria Clipper IV carries sensors in its sea chest. The
sensors allow us to get surfacetransects of temperature,
chlorophyll, salinity, and other bio-optical measurements
between Seattle and Victoria, BC twice per day.
Pockets of sea surfacetemperatures arenow reaching >15°C near
Kingston. Temperaturearefavorablefor harmfulalgae species to
bloom.
In temporalcontext:In spatial context:

19. What will the summer
of 2015 bring?

20. The “Blob” is still offshore! (NOAA)
2014 May2015
June 2015
Blobis ~500
kmoffshore

21. Will upwelled water in 2015 stay offshore?
Coastal Upwelling
Rain-fed riversSnow-fed riversUpwelling
Downwelling Estuarinecirculation Tidalexchange
Victoria
SeattleFraser
Rivers
spring-neap cycle
tidal mixing
over the sillestuarine
circulation
SanJuan Islands
reducedsnowpack

22. Will an El Niño deepen the nutrient rich water?
Coastal Upwelling
Rain-fed riversSnow-fed riversUpwelling
Downwelling Estuarinecirculation Tidalexchange
Victoria
Seattle
reducedsnowpack
Fraser
Rivers
spring-neap cycle
tidal mixing
over the sillestuarine
circulation
SanJuan Islands
dense watertoo deep

23. Rivers
Will summer squalls import more warm water?
Downwelling
Rain-fedriversSnow-fed riversUpwelling
Downwelling Estuarinecirculation Tidalexchange
Victoria
Seattle
reducedsnowpack
Fraser
spring-neap cycle
tidal mixing
over the sillestuarine
circulation
SanJuan Islands

24. Speculating about the summer 2015
• No matter in what direction the coastal wind will blow,we can expecta
reduced renewalof water in Puget Sound.
• PugetSound water will stay warm leading to potentially more regional
water quality issues.
• Will the situation becomebigger with El Niño?
• Expectvery differentgrowth conditionsfor marinespecies.

25. The marine food web is responding
(the news is coming in…)
• Energy-rich northern zooplankton species were replaced by southern
copepods at end of 2014. Peter Chandler (Canada),San Diego meeting
“The Blob”, May 2015)
• Much more gelatinous zooplankton, 'Crunchies' vs. 'Squishies‘, (John
Dower,UVIC, CBC NES 6/8 here).
• A record high 96% diversion of returning Fraser River sockey salmon via
northern Vancouver Island (LaPointe et al. 2015 report, in prep).
• Largest toxic algae bloom stretching from Central California to British
Columbia. NOAA (Seattle Times 6/16 here).
• Firsttime PSP, DSP and domoic acid in Washington at the same time. DOH
(Seattle Times 6/16 here).

26. Leveraging our flight time
• Empty transit flights
Seattle - Olympia with
camera on board
• Document blooms, debris,
animal aggregations, oil
sheens, water boundaries
• Unique perspective,
minimal extra cost

27. jellyfish
jellyfish
boat
A. B.
Large patches of jellyfishforming in finger inlets of South Sound.
Location: A.Eld Inlet; B. Budd Inlet on 6-4-2015 (South Sound).
1 Aerial photography 6-8-2015 Navigate
Fieldlog Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
jellyfish jellyfish
jellyfish
jellyfishjellyfish
jellyfish
jellyfish
Bloom
2:22PM(6-4-2015)3:11PM

28. A. B.
4 Navigate
Fieldlog Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Aerial photography 6-8-2015
Large ribbons and patches of organic debris in many places of South Sound.
Location: A.North of McNeil Island,B. NisquallyReach (South Sound),3:16 PM.
Debris
Debris
Debris

29. Sediment plume of Puyallup River with internal waves meandering into Bay and mixing with a bloom.
Location: Commencement Bay(Central Sound),3:28PM.
8 NavigateAerial photography 6-8-2015
Fieldlog Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Bloom
boat
Plume
Internalwaves

30. Large Noctiluca bloom surfacing and gathering in large quantities at tidal front.
Location: Commencement Bay(Central Sound),3:32PM.
6 NavigateAerial photography 6-8-2015
Fieldlog Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Bloom
Debris
boat ship

31. 10 NavigateAerial photography 6-8-2015
Large Noctiluca bloom held back front off Maury Island Marine Park and Saltwater State Park.
Location: East ofVashon Island (Central Sound),3:32PM.
Fieldlog Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Bloom
Debris

32. 15 Navigate
Fieldlog Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Large Noctiluca bloom has surfaced near northeast Bainbridge Island across Discovery Park, Seattle.
Location: Bainbridge Island(CentralSound),3:45PM.
Aerial photography 6-8-2015
boat
Debris

33. Noctiluca bloom starting to surface and getting washed onto beaches.
Location: Port Madison (Central Sound),3:47PM.
18 Navigate
Fieldlog Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams
Aerial photography 6-8-2015
boat
barge
Debris
Debris
Debris

34. Is the food web changing in Puget Sound?
Hypothesis!
Is Noctiluca
a visible
harbingerof a
food web
change?
Hypothesis for combining a series of recent observations
affecting energy and material transfer to higher trophic levels

35. Eyes Over Puget Sound: