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Will electric cars rule the future?

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Will electric cars rule the future?

  1. 1. Will electric cars rule the future? Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan September 2016
  2. 2. 2 3 major challenges we have to take into consideration to develop a sustainable car : climatic changes, end of fossil fuels and air pollution Performance • Efficiency • Acceleration • Top speed • CO2 emissions • Air pollution Climatic changes •CO2 emission at highest level in the last 800,000 years •More than 2° expected by 2100 with drastic consequences if nothing is done End of fossil resources •97% of road transportation use fossil fuels •Oil, which is the main driver of our economy, might have disappeared by the end of the century Air pollution •With the rural exodus and development of mega cities, air pollution has reached unprecedented levels •Serious health diseases to multiply drastically ChallengesConstrains Sustainable car KSF = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Costs • Total cost of ownership • Retail • Recharging • Maintenance Autonomy • Distance without charging • Time to recharge • Storage weight Infrastructure • Investment required to update existing infrastructure and/or build a new one • Standards across all countries Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
  3. 3. 3 The reason why electric vehicles never met the gap until now is that fossil fuels have the best energy density, both in mass and volume, than any other energy vector Source : Pierre-René BAUQUIS Energy density of energy vectors used in transport Fossil fuels have a mass density 100 times as high as batteries  1kg of fossil fuel contain as much energy as in 100 kg of batteries
  4. 4. 4 If anthropogenic contribution to climate change is still being debated, global warming is happening with up to 5°C increase by 2100 in the worst case scenarios with drastic consequences 800,000 Year Record of CO2 Concentration Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost • The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 30% higher than at any time in measurable history • It is predicted to reach from 550 to 900 ppm by 2100 – 85% to 200% increase compare to highest concentration observed in the last 800,000 years Projected temperature up to 2100
  5. 5. 5 Knowing whether we’ll still have fossil fuel in 2100 is not key – the critical issue is how long we will have affordable oil to fuel our economy and our cars Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost Extractioninbillionsofoil barrelsperyear Liquid fuels extraction - 1930 to 2050 - « It's not the size of the tank which matters, but the size of the tap» Jean-Marie Bourdaire
  6. 6. 6 Air pollution is one of the key driver for city to adopt EV cars, especially in China. Diesel emissions (particles & NOx) are particularly unhealthy even though CO2 emissions are lower Particles (PM) emissions in Paris 9th of juin 2004, 10h, atmo index « Mauvais 7 » 14th of June 2004, 10h, atmo index « Bon 3 » Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost PM10 = 20 µg/m3 PM10 = 80 µg/m3 72,000 people killed every year in Europe because of NOx emissions from diesel cars Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis, ICCT NOx emissions for diesel vehicles - Standards vs. reality -
  7. 7. 7 Plug-in hybrids offer the best trade-off between petroleum consumption and Well-to-Wheel Emission Fuel Consumption and Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Future (2035 Cars) Source: More Sustainable transportation: The Role of Energy Efficient Vehicle Technologies, Sloan Automotive Laboratory (MIT), April 2008 Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost Plug-in hybrids (30 miles)
  8. 8. 8 Country electricity mix can have a huge impact on CO2 emissions of electric vehicles Well to wheel emissions of a battery vehicle • Most of electricity in the USA (40%),Germany (45%) and China (70%) is produced from coal • Nuclear and renewable energies (including hydro) are the only alternatives to produce CO2 free electricity Emissions intensity gCO2/kWh g/km Wind 5.5 0.9 Nuclear 15 2.4 Hydro 18 2.9 Nuclear 60 9.6 Natural Gas - CC 461 74 Natural Gas 653 104 Coal 1075 172 CO2 emissions intensity (gCO2/kWh) % of CO2 free electricity Emission intensity (gCO2 / kWh) Well to wheel emissions of electric vehicle* (g/km) France 90% 75 20 Canada 59% 267 43 California 44% 470 75 US 31% 710 114 China 20% 950 160 Source: Rouler sans pétrole, Pierre Langlois, 2008 * Equivalent to an intermediary ICE car = 9l/100 km => 244g/km Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
  9. 9. 9 Plug-in hybrids are the only alternative technology able to compete today at a global scale with the ICE on autonomy and infrastructure investment required Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2011 Autonomy Infrastructure investment HighLow Distance Time to recharge Storage weight Internal Combustion Engine 600 km 5 min Already existing45 kg Plug-in hybrids 600 km (20 to 60 km electric) Already existing2-3 hours 50 to 90 kg Electric vehicle 60 to 250 km electric To be developed4-8 hours 90 to 250 kg Fuel Cell Vehicle 600 km To be developed5 min 90 to 100 kg Performance Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
  10. 10. 10 Plug-in hybrids will be competitive with the ICE without any state subsidy for an oil price over 2,5 €/L Total cost of ownership of an ICE compared with a Plug-In Hybrid * Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis MIT, 2009 ** 80% of French drivers average trip per day is less than 50 km every day Payback period sensitivity to oil price and state subsidy TCO of a C-segment car ICE Plug-in hybrids (50 km electric autonomy) Retail price (€) 14800 € (20000$) + 7400 € (+10000 $*) Electric autonomy 0 km 50 km Energy consumption 7 l/100km 1.4 l/100km ** & 15 kWh/100km Annual energy consumption (14000 km) 980 l 196 l & 1,68 MWh Annual TCO(1,75€/l & 100 €/MWh) 1715 € 343 € + 168 € = 511 € Annual TCO(2 €/l & 100 €/MWh) 1960 € 392 € + 168 € = 560 € Annual TCO(2,5 €/l & 100 €/MWh) 2450 € 490 € + 168 € = 658 € Oil price 1,75 € 2 € 2.5 € Incremental annual TCO of ICE 1204 € 1400 € 1882 € Payback period without subsidy 6.1 years 5.3 years 3.9 years Payback period with a €2,000 subsidy 4,5 years 3,9 years 2.9 years Payback period with a €4,000 subsidy 2.8 years 2,4 year 1.8 years Épuisement des énergies fossiles Performance Changements climatiques Pollution atmosphérique Autonomie Infrastructures Coûts
  11. 11. 11 Plug-in hybrids represent the best trade-off for a sustainable vehicle at a global scale in the short to medium term - up to 2030 Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis Plug-In Hybrids Electric VehicleInternal Combustion Engine Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Metal Independence Highway Range Charging Infrastructure Availability Energy Efficiency Affordability Oil Independence Metal Independence Highway Range Charging Infrastructure Availability Energy Efficiency Affordability Oil Independence Metal Independence Highway Range Charging Infrastructure Availability Energy Efficiency Affordability Oil Independence Metal Independence Highway Range Charging Infrastructure Availability Energy Efficiency Affordability Oil Independence
  12. 12. 12 PHEVs do not need an expensive fast charging infrastructure deployment, can reduce oil consumption by as much as 80% and uses four times as less supply- constrained cobalt than BEVs Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis Affordability Metal Independence Highway Range Charging Infrastructure Availability Energy efficiency* Oil Independence ICE Most cost competitive alternative 5 Platine in catalytic converters 4 More than 500 km 5 Infrastructur e existing 5 18% Gasoline 22% Diesel 3 100% oil 1 23 BEV High cost of 60kWh battery 3 Lithium and cobalt for 60 kWh battery 2 Up to 300 km 3 Fast charger network & local grid upgrade 2 20% 3 100% electric 5 18 PHEV 20kWh battery 4 Lithium and cobalt for 20 kWh battery 3 More than 500 km 5 Local grid upgrade 4 20% 3 80% electric 20% oil 4 23 FCEV High cost of fuel cell stack 2 Platinum in the fuel cell stack 2 More than 500 km 5 Network of hydrogen station 1 8% 1 100% electric 5 16 * Well to wheel
  13. 13. 13 Electrification of vehicles will take place progressively starting with Plug-in hybrids whose electric autonomy increases when battery prices decrease - up to the day when all vehicles will run electrically • ICE will still be around for a while representing the majority of vehicle sales for another 15 years • Hydrogen is very unlikely to be used in a car before 2025 - only an energy vector for gas or nuclear, no significant advantage over an PHEV and some investments required to set up a distribution infrastructure • EV, which neither emits CO2 nor pollutants, still face too many challenges – cost, autonomy, infrastructure, norm standards – to have a chance to replace at a global scale the ICE before 2040. • There is however a potential for EV and FC in local niche applications like company fleets, car sharing or bus/tramway • Plug-in hybrids has both the ICE advantages – autonomy, infrastructure required, affordable cost - and the EV ones – Energy efficiency, Well to Wheel emissions without sharing their drawbacks Annual light-duty sales by technology type Annual global EV and PHEV sales Source: EIA 2011
  14. 14. 14 However electric cars will need more than hype to become mainstream! Media attention for all alternative fuel vehicle technologies - 1980–2013 - Source: Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportation, Noel Melton, Jonn Axsen & Daniel Sperling, Nature Energy (2016)
  15. 15. 15 Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant Energy & Transportation Practices (+33) 1 42 81 23 24 nicolas .meilhan@frost.com

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