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13.00 Welcome and SSNCs new agriculture report SvanteAxelsson, Secretary General,Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (SSNC) 13.20 Sweden towards Rio +20 Magnus Kindbom, State Secretary, Ministry of Rural Development 13.40 Agriculture in the Green Economy Achim Steiner, UNEP Executive Directorand Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations 14.00 Africa can feed it self Sue Edwards, Director,Institute for Sustainable Development (ISD) 14.20 How to produce food, protect the environment and generate income for farmers André Goncalves, Technical Coordinator, Centro Ecologico and Professor Agroecology, Instituto Federal Catarinense14.35 Coffee 15.05 The potential of a productive, fossil fuel free agriculture based on ecosystem services Johanna Björklund, Teaching Professor Agroecology, Örebro University 15.20 Case, the Philippines Chito Medina, Director, MASIPAG 15.35 Action plan for changing course in agriculture Hans Herren, Director, Millenium Institute 15.55 The way forward – discussion 17.00 End
The prevalence of diabetes has reached epidemic proportions.WHO predicts that developing countries will bear the brunt of this epidemic in the 21st century. Currently, more than 70% of people with diabetes live in low- and middle income countries.An estimated 285 million people, corresponding to 6.4% of the world's adult population, will live with diabetes in 2010. The number is expected to grow to 438 million by 2030, corresponding to 7.8% of the adult population.While the global prevalence of diabetes is 6.4%, the prevalence varies from 10.2% in the Western Pacific to 3.8% in the African region. However, the African region is expected to experience the highest increase.70% of the current cases of diabetes occur in low- and middle income countries. With an estimated 50.8 million people living with diabetes, India has the world's largest diabetes population, followed by China with 43.2 million.
Conventional system:Best ngnt practicesSoil conservation practicesIPMReduction of chemical inputsSystem in Transition to sustainability: substitution of external inputs with biological processesPeasant low input: state support to reach “substitutions etc…Indigenous traditional systems: state support to reach the substitutions….
Action plan for changing course in agriculture
100% agroecology will nourish theworld!Action plan for changingcourse in agricultureSwedish Society for Hans R. HerrenNature Conservation (SSNC)April 25, 2012 President www.millennium-institute.orgStockholm President www.biovision.ch Co-Chair IAASTD www.agassessment.org Coordinator UNEP GER Agriculture Chapter
Who said that we need to change course?:The IAASTD Reports…and then others, in different ways(www.agassessment.org)Multi-stakeholder: 400 authors, 52 countriesMulti-disciplinaryMulti-locational: Global / sub-Global Reports
IAASTD: Key findings1. We feed only 6 out of 7 billion people with the present food system (but have enough for 14 bn)….in addition, we count 1.5 billion obese and 300 million diabetes 2 cases2. The industrial food system uses some 10 Kcal to produce one, energy problem3. The industrial and conventional food system (incl. the traditional systems are a major part of the CC problem4. Soil degradation, water shortages & biodiversity loss underlie food security, natural resource problem5. Jobs, Industrial agriculture emptied the rural areas and multidisciplinary research labs, social problems6. Unfair trade works against the small-scale famers and the poor, economic and social problems Business as usual is not an option
What’s the plan forward?Different intervention levels (all with multistakeholderapproaches) for planning (it’s a system), implementation andmonitoring the new paradigm (multifunctional agriculture)1. Policies (informed via assessments, i.e., IAASTD, implementation via policies,.i.e., AU-EOA Initiative; land reforms, etc..)2. Institutions (reformed to support agroecological agriculture, i.e., reassign perverse subsidies)1. R&D (in support of the new paradigm, with emphasis on women, resilienceActors: Producers, Suppliers /Buyers, Processors, Consumers, Policy Makers
Food security…..is“a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO)……is built on:• food availability: sufficient quantities of nutritious food are available on a consistent basis• food access: nutritious food is affordable for all people• food stability: Not bumper yields, but stable yields as expected from resilient system are needed• food use: knowledge of basic nutrition, access to adequate water and sanitation, safe processing and handling …….and implies multifunctionality
IAASTD: Showing the right road1. “a fundamental shift in AKST and the connected• agri-food system policies; • institutions; • capacitydevelopment; and • investments”2. Paradigm change: Transition to sustainable /agro-ecological /organic agri-culture3. An agriculture that addresses the multifunctionality andresilience needs of the small-scale and family farmers (social &economic: equity issue, farmer status, land ownership, empowerment, women),quality job creation (Edu at all levels);4. Need to use a systemic and holistic approach (basic ecologicalprinciples); treat cause not symptoms; is part of the solution tohunger, poverty, health, natural resources conservation, CC5. Good governance and new Institutions
Ecological agriculture as the main solution:Multifunctionality paradigm for sustainable agriculture and foodsystem equitable livable sustainable viable
Changing behavior: consumption defines production Encouraging a wider genetic base in agriculture…trees , fruits, grains, vegetables, lost crops, animals for nutrition and health, cultural diversity, incomes, pest control, resilience to climate change Barilla, 2011
Green way ahead: is knowledge intensive• Improve and expand extension services (ITC)• Introduce capacity building (ITC)• Agriculture is very localized = local solutions• AU Ecological/Organic Ag initiative (Head of State)
Transformation…..the never ending debate…and the image problem…..• Can organic/agroecological based agriculture feed the planet? (and who can afford it?)(wrong question, as one should ask:• Does the present industrial / conventional (green revolution) model which is being promoted?• How can we nourish 9.5 billion people; eradicate hunger and poverty; assure rural livelihood (jobs); eradicate inequities; assure good nutrition and health; and do all this in a socially, environmentally and economically sustainable manner (back to the top)
Can it be done?: scenarios from the UNEP GER agchapter 2011Global investments across sectors (1% and 2% of GDP, Sternreport); 0.1% and 0.16% of GDP invested in agriculture for:- Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective bio-pesticide use)- Ag management practices (cover transition costs from tillto no till, organic, agroecological agriculture, training, accessto small scale mechanization)- R&D (research in soil science and agronomy, cropimprovement (orphan crops), appropriate mechanization, andmore)- Food processing (better storage and processing in ruralareas, efficient processing, marketting)
The forward looking scenarios: Approach and methodology Water Water Water stress efficiency demand Agriculture laborSustainable mgmt. Agriculture capital Natural crop yield Effective crop yield Forest land per ha per ha Soil quality Organic Pre harvest fertilizer losses Fertilizer use Chemical fertilizer R&D Harvested area Oil price GDP Agriculture production Population
Yes…..(UNEP GER Report – 2011),Investing 0.1% or 0.16% of total GDP ($83-$141 Billion) / year Year 2011 2011 2050 Scenario Unit Baseline Green BAU Ag production Bn US$/Yr 1,921 2,852 2,559 Crops Bn US$/Yr 629 996 913 Employment M People 1,075 1,703 1,656 Soil quality Dmnl 0.92 1.03 0.73 Ag water use KM3/Yr 3,389 3,207 4,878 Harvested land Bn ha 1.20 1.26 1.31 Deforestation M ha/Yr 16 7 15 Calories p/c/day for consumption Kcal/C/D 2,081 2.524 2.476
In conclusionThe change that is needed will first start with each of us…….then as a group of like minded we need to:• take a medium and long, holistic, multifunctional and systemic view in addressing multiple challenges• invest more in (agro-ecological -research, -extension, -education• focus on the finality of agriculture and food systems: health,equity and cultural diversity• support changes in governance (be active in policy design toend perverse subsidies and favor a true food pricing policy)• Invest in enabling conditions……and yes it can be done, so lets do it NOW
From Stockholm 72 to Rio 92 to Jo‘burg 02 to Rio 12 (Rio+20)92: Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEA)• (UNFCCC); (CBD); (UNCCD)02: IAASTD 11: IPBES12: Governance, Institutions and Green Economy (IAASTD implementation via CFS)
You cannot solve the problem with the samekind of thinking that created the problem Albert Einstein www.millennium-institute.org & Thank you http://www.biovision.ch