Generally speaking, NanoMarkets sees DSC-enabled BIPV applications likely inching closer to mass production levels toward the end of the decade, with the first commercial production of DSC modules coming within a five-year window from leading manufacturers such as Dyseol and 3GSolar. BIPV glass, the current hot-spot for DSC application, has channeled many investments and pilot efforts, particularly in Europe but with backing from Asian partners. Our latest analysis suggests the market for DSC-enabled BIPV glass will surge from just $1.3 million to more than $256 million in 2021.

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Perovskite and DSC: The Market Revolution Begins with BIPV
No solar cell material ever has enjoyed such a rapid trajectory of improvements --
nor the subsequent attention from researchers, industry, and media -- as
perovskite. This material, known for decades but whose ability to convert sunlight
wasn't appreciated until the past few years, has suddenly gained popularity with a
velocity proportional to the flood of performance improvements coming out months
and even weeks apart: from barely 3 percent conversion efficiency in 2009 to 10
percent in 2012, 16 percent in 2013, and as high as 19 percent according to recent
conference reports. (A combination of c-Si cells and perovskite is thought to be
able to achieve 32 percent efficiency.) That's tantalizingly alongside the
performance of mainstream conventional silicon-based PV, but with the potential
for far simpler and cheaper processes and manufacturing.
Here's why perovskite is attracting so much attention:
• It can better absorb sunlight, meaning thinner films can be used, which
means less materials (bringing costs down)
• Perovskite requires only familiar wet chemistry techniques and simple
benchtop processes -- manufacturing is vastly simpler than other solar
technologies, from c-Si to liquid DSC
• It's not liquid, which also makes for much simpler manufacturing especially
at larger scale, and also means better lifetime stability
• It offers significantly higher voltages because less energy is lost from
activation and regeneration
NanoMarkets sees very important ramifications from perovskite's unprecedented
trajectory for one specific market segment: dye-sensitized solar cells (DSC).
Several key DSC firms already have been at the forefront of the perovskite solar
revolution:
• The École Polytechnique Fédéral de Lausanne (EPFL) in Switzerland, a
pioneer of modern-day DSC technology, touched 15 percent efficiency a year
ago, and more recently behind closed doors has shown north of 17 percent
efficiency, sources tell NanoMarkets. EPFL's DSC uses an inorganic-organic

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composite material with a perovskite, such as a dye and a hole-transporting
material consisting of organic materials in place of electrolyte. (Specifically, the
structure is a solid-state DSC of glass-FTO-TiO2-CH3NH3PbI3-HTM-Au.)
Performance fluctuations have been resolved by tightening the perovskite
material's particle diameters, through a two-step deposition (Pbl2 accumulated
on TiO2, then immersed in a CH3NH3I solution),resulting in a DSC with
relatively high power conversion efficiency and high reproducibility.
• Another DSC-perovskite pioneer is Oxford Photovoltaics in the U.K., which is
developing DSC modules with ambitious cost targets of $0.32/W for its
technology which emphasizes transparency and color ideal for BIPV
applications on building glass facades and rooftops. The company, a spinoff
from the U. of Oxford (with 13 exclusive patents), believes it can achieve 20
percent conversion efficiencies with perovskite DSC panels. In fact, the
company tells NanoMarkets that it's entirely shifting its strategy and future
business away from DSC to focus on perovskite thin-film solar cells, targeting
the same BIPV markets with broader reach while also exploring the
aforementioned hybrid silicon-perovskite cells.
• Dyesol, a longtime leader in DSC and organic PV, is transitioning from
expensive liquid-based materials to relatively cheaper solid-state materials,
including perovskite sensitizers and the Spiro solid-state electrolyte -- a
significant move considering the higher efficiency, lower cost, and better
scalability prospects for solid-state DSCs. Dyesol also has a long association
with EPFL.
The flip side of perovskite's promise is its disruption to suppliers. A major reason
why it's received so much research attention is because as mentioned above its
simplicity is utterly the opposite of a barrier to entry. According to some back-of-
the-napkin math from one DSC materials provider, a 1 MW system with 100,000
sq. m of surface area would require up to 25 lbs of film layers but just 1.5 kg of
perovskite material at a market value of $100.
All this excitement about perovskite material is, of course, happening at small-scale
R&D. NanoMarkets understands much more work is needed before commercial
viability can happen, most importantly in understanding the mechanics behind their
degradation, making them stable and reliable over years of lifetime, improving their
sensitivity to humidity, improving and simplifying how to properly package them,
and all the while wringing costs out. A newer area of focus is replacing the tiny
amounts of lead in current perovskite with other substances such as tin; the Pb

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amounts are tiny but could be subject to penalties of toxicity, not to mention
negative marketplace perceptions. We reiterate that all of this hoopla about
perovskite is still several years away from translating into commercial-ready large-
size (e.g. 1 square meter) modules with 10 percent conversion efficiencies.
NanoMarkets believes, though, that perovskite's rapid trajectory of efficiency
improvement, with potential pairing of DSC's features, could very well attract
heightened interest from investors, strategically from within the industry and/or
from capital markets, which could accelerate innovation and product development
efforts and shorten the combined technologies' runway toward commercialization.
Expanding the BIPV Market for DSC
Conversion efficiency is a key metric because it directly impacts a system's cost of
energy -- thus these recent advancements in perovskite ultimately translate into
expanding the potential addressable end markets for DSC, bolstering its flexibility
and customization capabilities with vastly improved energy output. First and
foremost this means building-integrated PV (BIPV), integrated into roofs or
architectural glass, and even into the walls, in products such as tiles, facades and
shingles. If perovskite-based DSC solar cells can enter commercial production
even at half their current efficiency (say at 10 percent or even the high-teens) that's
a very viable commercial product that can compete favorably against other solar
energy technologies, with added benefits of simplicity and cost, plus architectural
flexibility and aesthetics -- light weight, robust, and semitransparent/light-
transmissive. These BIPV applications also mean large panels, a far greater target
market for DSC materials than, say, previous sectors of solar chargers on
electronic products. And a higher-efficiency BIPV product can address markets
with sub-optimal lighting conditions, from Europe to North America to Northeast
Asia.
Alongside the DSC/perovskite technology development progress, NanoMarkets
also expects to see DSC firms ramping up their strategies and partnerships to get
their products to the end market. Oxford PV, for example, eyeing architectural glass
on large commercial developments, claims it will soon issue its first license to a
glass manufacturer, with revenues ramping up in 2016. Dyesol, leveraging the
EPFL technology for DSCs involving steel and glass, is shooting for mass
production techniques for solid-state DSCs in the next three to four years.

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Generally speaking, NanoMarkets sees DSC-enabled BIPV applications likely
inching closer to mass production levels toward the end of the decade, with the
first commercial production of DSC modules coming within a five-year window from
leading manufacturers such as Dyseol and 3GSolar. BIPV glass, the current hot-
spot for DSC application, has channeled many investments and pilot efforts,
particularly in Europe but with backing from Asian partners. Our latest analysis
suggests the market for DSC-enabled BIPV glass will surge from just $1.3 million
to more than $256 million in 2021.
For DSC used in roofing and siding applications, the use of liquid electrolyte has
been a major disadvantage because of stringent sealing requirements to offset
their sensitivity to moisture and air. Solid electrolytes -- perovskites would fall into
this category -- could help improve this situation, especially if their efficiencies are
vastly improved. Dyesol has disclosed plans to introduce solid-state DSCs for steel
substrates within the next three years. NanoMarkets acknowledges uncertainty
about overall industry commitment to pursuing commercial-production of DSC-
integrated materials for roofs, given the increased ubiquity of cheaper silicon-based
rooftop panels. Nevertheless, by the end of this decade we see this as another
viable market for DSC, rising from nearly $6 million in 2016 to $225 million by 2021.
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© NanoMarkets 2014
Eight-year Summary of DSC-Enabled
Applications
(AIPV)
DSC Enabled Military
Applications
Sensor Network Devices
Point of Point-of-Sale Devices
Outdoor and Indoor Advertising
Devices
Utility Scale Devices
Roofing/Siding Devices
Glass Devices

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DSC Markets Beyond BIPV
Beyond BIPV, NanoMarkets recognizes other end market opportunities for DSC
that could bear fruit with higher-efficiency technology that works in low/ambient
light conditions. However, we feel these are still several years further out from
being viable revenue streams, and well short of the scale promised by BIPV:
• Sensor networks. This area has been boosted by the "Internet of Things" (IoT)
movement, though PV is not the leading power source candidate. DSC would
have competition from other energy harvesting options here, and NanoMarkets
doesn't see much commercial large-scale adoption in the near future.
• Military. Applied everywhere from drones to uniforms, this is another smaller-
scale niche with dreams of taking off on large scale, as DSC's features of
flexibility, light weight, and autonomy play perfectly into military applications.
Nevertheless we don't see this as a major revenue generator even on an
extended horizon.
• Automotive. This is an intriguing area, envisioning DSC panels embedded in
both the exterior (rooftops and windows) and interior surfaces of cars.
SolarPrint and Fiat have done early work here. Rechargeable stands for electric
vehicles is a related area. Like other markets this sector is still early-stage
development, but NanoMarkets believes rapid improvements in performance
will make a major impact in this area.
• Indoor applications. Indoor portable charging was an early market for DSC
because of the technology's ability to generate electricity under low-light and
artificial lighting conditions, with 20 percent efficiency exhibited. NanoMarkets
believes this market could serve as a good substitute revenue-generating
stream for DSC firms aside from the bigger target market of BIPV, especially if
a major home goods or electronics firm were to commit. Solar chargers, the
DSC success story so far, fall into this category with several vendors (G24,
Samsung, Sekisui, Sony, TDK) already commercializing products, but
NanoMarkets sees opportunities expanding into areas such as furniture (tables
and lamps) with translucent surfaces incorporating a small battery to charge a
portable device (Solaronix has produced one such prototype). Other portable
consumer electronics avenues include e-readers, solar lamps, and solar-
powered blinds.
• Outdoor applications. DSC is well suited to many outdoor applications, where
its low-cost processing and flexibility trump lower efficiency and inflexibility of
more traditional silicon-based PV options. Solar awnings and umbrellas are an

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early application in the context of DSC, enabling structures that serve both as
canopies and energy-generating surfaces. Digital signage, from LCD store
displays to billboards, is a booming market with some off-grid requirements that
PV and DSC could tap. NanoMarkets sees this mainly as a long-term
possibility, however.
• Retail applications. Point-of-scale displays such as kiosks require off-grid
power which could be supplied by PV and DSC. DSC-enabled products have
yet to be commercialized for this market, and improved efficiency will be key.
While NanoMarkets sees significant growth in addressable capacity of DSC-
enabled devices in this segment, that won't exactly translate into a major market
opportunity.
The materials for this paper were drawn from the following NanoMarkets reports:
• CIGS Photovoltaics Markets-2014 and Beyond
• BIPV Glass Markets-2014 & Beyond
• BIPV Markets Analysis and Forecasts 2014-2021
• Dye Sensitized Cell Markets - 2014
Please visit www.nanomarkets.net for additional details