.NET Fest 2019. Оля Гавриш. Машинное обучение для .NET программистов

1. Тема доклада Тема доклада Тема доклада KYIV 2019 Machine Learning for .NET developers .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE Olia Gavrysh
2. Тема доклада Тема доклада Тема доклада .NET LEVEL UP About me .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE KYIV 2019 Olia Gavrysh Program Manager Microsoft, .NET team twitter: @oliagavrysh
3. Тема доклада Тема доклада Тема доклада Let me learn something about you…
4. Make Machine Learning
5. When you start Machine Learning without calculus
6. Тема доклада Тема доклада Тема доклада .NET LEVEL UP Agenda .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE KYIV 2019 1. Machine Learning crash course 2. Building ML model with for your .NET app with ML.NET
7. Machile Learning crash course KYIV 2019 .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE
8. © Microsoft Corporation Examples Predicts prices for the next month Identify faces in images and videos Detect fraud transactions Classify if a customer is at retention risk Some problems are difficult to solve using traditional algorithms and procedural programming. These examples are good candidates for machine learning.
9. © Microsoft Corporation A repetitive decision or process Solution lacks an explicit definition A lot of historic data When can you use Machine Learning?
10. .NET LEVEL UP Machine Learning “Programming the UnProgrammable” .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE KYIV 2019 rooms, bedrooms, bathrooms location, view, near school footage year built garage, basement, patio … {f(x) {f(x)
11. Types of Machine Learning
12. Many ML Tasks Is this A or B? How much? How many? How is this organized? Regression ClusteringClassification And many more…
13. Types of Machine Learning
14. How ML works ŷ = f(x) Fcost = |y - ŷ| → 0 ŷ - our model y – actual values (known answers) Fcost - shows the difference between your prediction and the actual values
15. Overfitting and Underfitting
16. .NET LEVEL UP Creating ML Model .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE KYIV 2019 Train Evaluate UseBuild
17. .NET LEVEL UP Building Model .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE KYIV 2019 Build 1. Upload Data 2. Prepare Data 3. Choose Algorithm
18. .NET LEVEL UP Training Model .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE KYIV 2019 Running the chosen algorithm on the data. Train
19. .NET LEVEL UP Evaluating Model .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE KYIV 2019 Calculate metrics that show how good is the model using test data. If not good – go back to Build phase. Evaluate All metrics: https://docs.microsoft.com/dotnet/machine-learning/resources/metrics
20. .NET LEVEL UP Consuming Model .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE KYIV 2019 Consume in your client applications. Use
21. Building a model with KYIV 2019 .NET CONFERENCE #1 IN UKRAINE
22. © Microsoft Corporation ML.NET Machine Learning framework for building custom ML Models Build for .NET developers Proven at scale Azure, Office, Windows Extensible TensorFlow, ONNX and Infer.NET Cross-platform and open-source Runs everywhere Custom ML made easy with tools CLI + UI-based tool for building models
23. In data science 80% of the time is spent on preparing the data and 20% of the time is spent on complaining about the need to prepare the data.
24. © Microsoft Corporation ML.NET Tooling to help you with making decisions AutoML Model Builder
25. © Microsoft Corporation How much is the taxi fare for 1 passenger going from Boryspil to Kreschatyk?
26. © Microsoft Corporation Criterion Loss Min Samples Split Min Samples Leaf XYZ Parameter 1 Parameter 2 Parameter 3 Parameter 4 … Distance Trip time Car type Passengers Time of day … Gradient Boosted Nearest Neighbors SGD Bayesian Regression LGBM … Distance Gradient Boosted 30% Model Car type Passengers Getting started with Machine Learning can be hard ML.NET takes care of data prep, feature selection & hyperparameter tuning Which algorithm? Which parameters?Which features?
27. © Microsoft Corporation N Neighbors Weights Metric P ZYX Which algorithm? Which parameters?Which features? Distance Trip time Car type Passengers Time of day … Gradient Boosted Nearest Neighbors SGD Bayesian Regression LGBM … Nearest Neighbors Criterion Loss Min Samples Split Min Samples Leaf XYZ 50% Model Iterate 30% Gradient BoostedDistance Car brand Year of make Car type Passengers Trip time Getting started w/machine learning can be hard ML.NET takes care of data prep, feature selection & hyperparameter tuning
28. © Microsoft Corporation Which algorithm? Which parameters?Which features? 50% 30% 70%30%45%50%65%95%35%10%75%20%70%30%15% Iterate Getting started w/machine learning can be hard A ML.NET takes care of data prep, feature selection & hyperparameter tuning
29. © Microsoft Corporation 25%40%70% 25% 95% 25% 25% 25% 25% 40% 40% 40% 40% 70% 70% 70%Enter data Define goals Apply constraints Input Intelligently test multiple models in parallel Optimized model 95% ML.NET accelerates model development
30. © Microsoft Corporation Demo ML.NET
31. http://dot.net/ml http://aka.ms/mlnetsamples http://aka.ms/mlnetdocs http://aka.ms/mlnet Resources
32. Тема доклада Тема доклада Тема доклада KYIV 2019 Thank you! twitter: @oliagavrysh
33. Тема доклада Тема доклада Тема доклада How long to train *Dataset Size Dataset Type Avg. Time to train* 0 - 10 Mb Numeric and Text 10 sec 10 - 100 Mb Numeric and Text 10 min 100 - 500 Mb Numeric and Text 30 min 500 - 1 Gb Numeric and Text 60 min 1 Gb+ Numeric and Text 3 hour+ The exact time to train is a function of a few parameters like: • The number of features or columns being used to predict • The type of columns i.e. text vs. numeric • The Type of machine learning task (e.g. regression vs. classification) We have tested Model Builder with even 1TB dataset but building a high-quality model for that size of dataset can take up to four days.
34. 1. Supervised and not supervised 2. Types of ML problems (https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/dotnet/machine- learning/tutorials/index) Pictures for diff problem types: https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/dotnet/machine- learning/automate-training-with-model-builder 1. Data prep https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/dotnet/machine-learning/how-to- guides/prepare-data-ml-net 2. Parameters, hyperparameter, labels 3. Training set evaluation set. Cross validation 4. Success metrics: accuracy, … https://github.com/dotnet/machinelearning- samples/blob/master/modelbuilder/readme.md#evaluate All metrics here: https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/dotnet/machine- learning/resources/metrics 5. How to improve results: more time, more/better data (the last – that’s where data scientists are needed)
35. Price prediction step by step (one hot encoder, …): https://docs.microsoft.com/en- us/dotnet/machine-learning/tutorials/predict-prices
36. Difference between machine learning and AI: • If it’s written in Python, it’s probably machine learning • If it’s written in PowerPoint, it’s probably AI

Notas do Editor

In our projects, we are often asked to solve very hard problems.

Many of these problems are relatively easy for a human to solve, but are difficult to program a computer to do.

Consider these examples…

How do you write code that determines whether a Netflix customer will renew their subscription or not?
How do you code an application that can differentiate objects in real time from a video feed?
How do you determine whether parts in a manufacturing line are defective?

How do you solve these problems when the only tool available for us is procedural code and traditional algorithms.?
The 3 problems we just saw all have 3 common properties:

One, they involve a repeated decision or evaluation process.
Two, it is difficult or impossible to explicitly describe the solution.
And three, you do have labeled data – or existing examples where you can describe the situation, and map it to the correct result.

This is where ML can help!

However you cannot use ML, if you do not have enough data – this is because you only get a model that is as good as the quality of your sampling data. Further, whenever you can use code to achieve your desired solution, there is no need to leverage ML as the computing resources needed can be very expensive.
.NET is a great tech stack for building a wide variety of applications. There is ASP.NET for web development, Xamarin for mobile development and with ML.NET we are trying to make .NET great for Machine Learning.
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ML.NET provides tooling that makes it easy to use. In particular, 2 really valuable tools are: AutoML and Model Builder

What is AutoML? It is an API that accelerates model development for you. A lot of developers do not have the experience required to build or train Machine Learning models. With AutoML, the process of finding the best algorithm, is automated!

Model Builder on the other hand provides an easy to understand visual interface to build, train, and deploy custom machine learning models. Prior machine learning expertise is not required. It also supports AutoML

Rememeber depending on your data, giving you the error of each of the models and you can then decide which model to use. Most people just use the model with the least error.

And we will see it in action soon.
The data scientist is definitely not happy with 30%. They try a second time with a different algorithm and this time they maybe score 50%.
This guesswork of what features with what algorithm, goes on and on, until the data scientist finds one that performs the best with a score close to 100% as much as possible.

Often one gets tired and just goes with whichever model is good enough.
AutoML, however, replaces the data scientist’s repeated model selection effort.

What this means, is that even without a data science background, you can now build a model, by just leveraging AutoML.

All you need to do:
is load you data
define your goal (are you trying to classify objects into 2 categories or are you trying to predict a value based on past values?)
and apply constraints for example (want performance of 70% and above)
In addition to ML.NET accelerating the model development phase, it also provides you with model explainability.

As you can see above, Model A’s sensitivity to different features is different from that of Model B. Trip distance was very important is model A while Trip time was most important in Model B.

Model explainability is very important because today there are so many people who build models and at the end are not sure which pieces of information were weighted heavily over the others by the resulting model.

BUT AutoML provides with both autoML and model explainability.

Now let us see AutoML in action!
In addition to ML.NET accelerating the model development phase, it also provides you with model explainability.

As you can see above, Model A’s sensitivity to different features is different from that of Model B. Trip distance was very important is model A while Trip time was most important in Model B.

Model explainability is very important because today there are so many people who build models and at the end are not sure which pieces of information were weighted heavily over the others by the resulting model.

BUT AutoML provides with both autoML and model explainability.

Now let us see AutoML in action!

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.NET Fest 2019. Оля Гавриш. Машинное обучение для .NET программистов

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