SmartTransitFuture.org presentation on the proposed Durham Orange Light Rail project at the CHALT Sustainable Transit Forum on March 14, 2017

1. The Realities of Durham-Orange Light Rail
March 14, 2017

2. Topics
• Orange County Bus and Rail Investment Plan
• Durham Orange Light Rail (DOLRT)
• Comparisons and Alternatives
• Discussion: DOLRT Promise vs Reality
• Decision Timetable
• How You Can Help
2

3. Orange County Bus & Rail Investment Plan
In 2012, Orange County Voters approved ½ cent sales tax for public transportation
3
2011
Durham County
2012
Orange County
YES
NO
ABSENT

4. Orange County Bus and Rail Investment Plan
4
Upon approval of the ½ cent sales tax for transit, Commissioners approved the
Orange County Bus & Rail Investment Plan (BRIP):
• Major Components
• LRT from UNC to Durham
• BRT along MLK Blvd
• Hillsborough Amtrak Station
• Small increase in bus service
• Binding contract (interlocal agreement) with GoTriangle, Durham and MPO
• $1.4 billion LRT project
• 50-25-25% cost split (federal/state/local)
• Unanimous support needed to stop unless “material change”
• Cost sharing agreement for LRT: Durham 77%/Orange 23%
• Assumed connectivity with Wake County

5. DOLRT Route: UNC to Durham
5

6. DOLRT and Orange County
6

7. • 2013: Wake County says “no” LRT
• 2014-16: Route changes and “value engineering”
o Alston Ave cut
o Shift from Meadowmont to Downing Creek
o NCCU added
o Slower, less frequent service
• 2016: State reduces funding from 25% to 10%
• 2016: Federal reimbursement rate lowered
• 2017: Debt added to address shortfalls
Sources:
Wake review of Light Rail http://letsgetmoving.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/RTA-2013-draft-Wake-transit-overview-revAug19-2013.pdf
GoTriangle Presentation to the OC BoCC Jan 24, 2017 http://www.orangecountync.gov/departments/durham-orange_bus_and_light_rail_information.php
GoTriangle Financial Plan http://www.orangecountync.gov/departments/public_affairs/uploads/0407L_Financial-Plan-Narrative_161229_FINAL_ac.pdf
DOLRT – How Did We Get Here ?

8. DOLRT by the numbers (costs in millions)
8
Note: Total for Orange County in 2012 is $104 million: $79 million +$25 million borrowed

9. DOLRT by the numbers (costs in millions)
Baseline costs plus Interest from 2035-2062
9Note: Numeric differences due to rounding
$700M
$350M
$350M
$1.4 BILLION
@ Initial Proposal
2012
$1.25B
$250M
$1B
$500M+
State
Local
Interest
(2035 – 2062)
Local
+
2017
$3 Billion
Current Outlook
Federal
$2.5 BILLION
thru 2035
Local costs now $1.5 Billion!
Nearly $400 million for
Orange County alone!

10. Additional Financial Risks
• Construction Cost Overruns (above 30%)
• Revenue Shortfalls
o State Funding
o Sales Tax Shortfalls
• Financing Risk (more debt; higher interest)
1% = $25 million… funded by Durham and Orange
10

11. DOLRT: The real cost
• No LRT service until at least 2029
• No funds for expanded bus or other transit until 2062!
o Within Orange County
o Regional Connections
• Lost opportunity to participate in changing technologies
o e-buses and e-brt
o Ridesharing and demand services.
o Driverless technologies
11

12. Comparison: Wake County Transit Plan
• LRT replaced with 140 miles of rapid, frequent service
o 37 mile commuter rail throughout Wake with service to RTP and Durham (2027)
o 20 miles of BRT (2024)
o 83 miles of frequent bus service plus greatly expanded bus network (2018)
o On demand service to rural communities (2018)
• Total capital $2.2 billion; operating $129 million (all services)
• Governance features transparency and go/no-go decision points
• Focus on increasing ridership and adapting plan as ridership grows
Source:
http://www.waketransit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Recommended-Wake-County-Transit-Plan_12-07-15.pdf
12

13. 13
Comparison: Wake County Transit Plan

14. Chapel Hill BRT
14
Changes in Public funding for BRT:
• Federal: 50%  70%
• State: 25%  0%
• Local/Other: 25%  30%
Stations
1. Eubanks Park & Ride
2. Weaver Dairy Road
3. New Parkside
4. Northfield
5. Piney Mountain
6. Estes
Hillsborough
7. Franklin
8. Cameron
9. Carrington Hall
Pittsboro / Credit Union
10. Manning / East
11. Jackson Circle / Mason Farm
12. NC 54
13. Culbreth
14. Sothern Village Park & Ride

15. 15
Chapel Hill BRT:
by the numbers
YOE: $125 Million for 8.2 miles ($15 million per mile)
Estimated Completion: 2022

16. Cost Comparison
DOLRT vs BRT vs Commuter Rail
16
BRT is always cheaper; so is commuter rail!

17. Other Considerations
• Changing Growth and Demographics
o Chatham Park, RTP and Mebane
o Chapel Hill 2020
o More seniors
• Changing Transit technologies
o Success of BRT and eBRT
o Ridesharing/Uber
o Driverless technologies
• Telecommuting
• Other?
But what about UNC?
17

18. The Current Plan
18
Estimated Capital Cost:
$2,500 DOLRT 17.7 miles
$ 125 NSBRT 8.2 miles
$ 9 Hillsborough Station
$2,634 TOTAL 25.9 miles
DOLRT
NSBRT +

19. What if …
we replace Light Rail with Bus Rapid Transit ?
19
Estimate Capital Cost:
$2500 DOLRT 17.7
$ 125 NSBRT 8.2 miles
$ 9 Hillsborough Station
$ 500 DOBRT 20 miles
$ 634 TOTAL 28.2 miles
NSBRT +
DOBRT

20. What if …
we extend Bus Rapid Transit to our Growth Centers ?
20
Estimated Capital Cost:
$2500 DOLRT 17.7
$ 125 NSBRT 8.2 miles
$ 9 Hillsborough Station
$ 500 DOBRT 20 miles
$ 350 RABRT 14 miles
$ 375 CCBRT 15 miles
$ 225 HBBRT 9 miles
Notes:
NS BRT estimated at proposed YOE dollars
BRT estimated at $25 Million per mile
Chapel Hill BRT = $15 Million per mile NSBRT
DOBRT
RTP
Chatham
Hillsborough

21. What if …
we extend Wake-Durham Commuter Rail
to Hillsborough and beyond ?
21
Estimated Capital Cost:
$2500 DOLRT 17.7
$ 125 NSBRT 8.2 miles
$ 9 Hillsborough Station
$ 500 DOBRT 20 miles
$ 350 RABRT 14 miles
$ 375 CCBRT 15 miles
$ 225 HBBRT 9 miles
$ 690 C Rail 23 miles
$ 1,700 TOTAL 87 miles
Notes:
NS BRT estimated at proposed YOE dollars
BRT estimated at $25 Million per mile
Commuter Rail estimated @ $30 Million per mile NSBRT
DOBRT
RTP
Chatham
Hillsborough
Commuter

22. We could deliver more rapid transit
to even more people…
22
$2.625 BILLION
servicing < 2%
26 miles
$1.7 BILLION
servicing many more
87 miles
Current Plan What if ?
- OR -

23. DOLRT: Promise vs Reality – Chapel Hill Transit
23
Changes in Public Transit funding sources:
Bus Service
• State: 7.5%
• Local: 92.5%
Vehicles, Bus Stops, Park and Rides
• Federal: 80%  38%
• State: 10%  8%
• Local/Other: 10%  54%
State of the System
Chapel Hill Transit Operations are Financially Unsustainable
$80 million (estimated) additional revenues
needed over next 10 years
• Invest in capital investments: Buses, paratransit vehicles,
technology, and park-and-ride lots
• Invest in staff and operations: Operators, mechanics, and
supervisors
y = -0.0007x2
+ 53.448x - 1E+06
R² = 0.26711
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan2002
Apr2002
Jul2002
Oct2002
Jan2003
Apr2003
Jul2003
Oct2003
Jan2004
Apr2004
Jul2004
Oct2004
Jan2005
Apr2005
Jul2005
Oct2005
Jan2006
Apr2006
Jul2006
Oct2006
Jan2007
Apr2007
Jul2007
Oct2007
Jan2008
Apr2008
Jul2008
Oct2008
Jan2009
Apr2009
Jul2009
Oct2009
Jan2010
Apr2010
Jul2010
Oct2010
Jan2011
Apr2011
Jul2011
Oct2011
Jan2012
Apr2012
Jul2012
Oct2012
Jan2013
Apr2013
Jul2013
Oct2013
Jan2014
Apr2014
Jul2014
Oct2014
Jan2015
Apr2015
Jul2015
Oct2015
Jan2016
Apr2016
Jul2016
Oct2016
Chapel Hill Transit
AverageDaily Ridership
All Modes
SOURCE: US Federal Transportation Administration - NTD Database
Jan 2002 thru Nov 2016
https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/data-product/monthly-module-raw-data-release
+19% population growth
Impact of additional
service hours?

24. 24
2015 Urban Mobility Scorecard rated
Charlotte First In Worst Traffic In North Carolina 8/31/2015
Charlotte’s LYNX Blue Line was along existing rail corridor
originally projected $225 million in 2000
final cost $467 million in 2007
Charlotte’s LYNX Blue Line Extension (# TE-4901)
estimated cost $1.16 BILLION in 2013
9.2 miles @ $126 million per mile
+20% population growth
DOLRT: Promise vs Reality – Charlotte Benchmark
AllPublicTransitLightRailONLY

25. DOLRT: Promise vs Reality – National benchmark
25
Claim: Light rail reduces traffic congestion? FALSE
Total national ridership (APTA 1990-2014)
reveals that despite massive light rail investments over
past 25 years,
combined ridership of light rail and bus service has stagnated
at 6 billion annual trips.
No evidence of increased ridership across these two modes
of transportation,
despite 28% population growth.
Aggregate data suggests bus ridership
shifted to expensive light rail
and
no measurable impact of reducing overall
automobile traffic congestion.
SOURCE:
Quarterly and Annual Totals by Mode - collected by American Public Transportation Association
http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/APTA-Ridership-by-Mode-and-Quarter-1990-Present.xls
240.00
250.00
260.00
270.00
280.00
290.00
300.00
310.00
320.00
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
National Annual Ridership
Light Rail vs Bus Service
LRT
BUS
US Pop
+28.44%
2.49% 9.23%Shifting light rail share

26. DOLRT: Promise vs Reality - Safety
26
•Woman killed by Green Line light-rail train was Minnesota Senate employee – St. Paul, 2015-04
•1 hurt as car collides with Link light rail train in S. Seattle – Seattle @ 2015-04
•Pedestrian struck, killed by light rail train in Los Angeles – Los Angeles @ 2015-04
•Pedestrian Fatally Struck by Gold Line Train in Highland Park – Los Angeles @ 2015-04
•RTD Closed Portion Of Light Rail Line In Lakewood For Possible Death Investigation – Denver @ 2015-04
•Light rail trains delayed due to crash – St Paul @ 2015-03
•Portland Streetcar collisions? Nearly 1 a week, reports say – Portland @ 2015-03
•21 INJURED AFTER METRO TRAIN CRASHES INTO CAR NEAR USC CAMPUS – Los Angeles @ 2015-03
•Woman dies in light rail accident – Houston @ 2015-03
•RTD Light Rail service disrupted by pedestrian accident, mechanical problem – Denver @ 2015-03
•VTA Light Rail Car and Vehicle Crash in San Jose – San Jose @ 2015-02
•San Jose man hit, killed by light rail train – San Jose @ 2015-02
•Vehicle strikes Hudson-Bergen light rail train in Downtown Jersey City – Jersey City @ 2015-02
•Person injured after being hit by light rail train near Belleview station – Denver @ 2015-02
•Pedestrian struck, killed by Light Rail train near Colorado Convention Center in downtown Denver – Denver @ 2015-02
•Pedestrian struck, killed by Light Rail ID’d as Naythan Cordova; 41-year-old died on his birthday – Denver @ 2015-02
•Man Killed In Light Rail Train Accident – Denver @ 2015-02
•Light Rail, car collide near Speer & Stout in downtown Denver – Denver @ 2015-02
•Light rail service delayed after accident between train, car – Baltimore @ 2015-02
•Child, Driver Seriously Injured After Car Collides With Muni Train In SF’s West Portal – San Francisco @ 2015-01
•3-YEAR-OLD DIES AFTER CAR HIT BY RIVER LINE LIGHT RAIL – Philadelphia @ 2015-01
•Man struck, killed by light rail train in Rancho Cordova ID’d – Sacramento @ 2014-12
•Denver police investigate fatal accident at RTD’s Colorado Station – Denver @ 2014-12
•St. Paul Squad Car Collides With Light Rail Train – St Paul @ 2014-11
•Rancho Cordova teen killed by light-rail train. Hundreds flock to candlelight vigil Thursday night – Sacramento @ 2014-11
•Bicyclist killed by light rail train – Sacramento @ 2014-11
•Man injured in Denver accident with light rail – Denver @ 2014-11
•Downtown Dallas light rail service restored following accident involving pedestrian, train – Dallas @ 2014-11
•NJ Transit light rail rams into car in Jersey City – Jersey City @ 2014-10
•Teen Girl Killed By Light Rail Train In Golden – Denver @ 2014-10
•Green Line train fatally hits woman wearing headphones – St Paul @ 2014-09
•Green Line light rail train hits pedestrian in St. Paul – St Paul @ 2014-08
•5 hurt in van, light-rail train crash in Rainier Valley – Seattle @ 2014-08
•Blue Line service restored after accident involving light rail train, truck – Philadelphia @ 2014-08
•1 injured after car hit by light rail – Denver @ 2014-08
1 Light trucks are defined as those less than 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight rating, including pickups, vans, and SUVs. Large trucks are more than 10,000 pounds
GVWR. 2 Transit bus refers to local service on fixed routes; light rail refers to streetcars, tramways, and trolleys; heavy rail includes subways and similar electric rail service;
commuter rail is electric or diesel rail service between suburbs and a central city (all transit data 2000–2008). 3 Train data includes both freight and passenger railroad
operations.
Average fatality rates per 100 million miles, 2000–2011
100 TON TRAIN (Siemens S70)
Stopping Distance: 1.5X
length of football field

27. DOLRT: Promise vs Reality - Safety

28. 28
BRIP model to rerun with updated cost,
funding and service assumptions
BoCC meeting on results of independent
audit (@ Southern Human Services
Center, Chapel Hill)
BoCC meeting on updated BRIP and
Cost Sharing agreement (@ Whitted
Building, 300 Tryon Street Hillsborough)
Important Upcoming Dates

29. How You Can Help?
29
• Talk about transit (friends, neighbors, churches, civic groups)
• Project no longer meets our changing needs
• Project costs and risks are unacceptable
• We need better transit now!
• CALL each Orange County Commissioner
• Personal outreach, followed by email or letter
• ATTEND MEETINGS ON APRIL 4th and APRIL 18th; Bring others!

30. County Commissioner Contacts
30

31. Federal Transportation Committee
Republicans:
Mario Diaz-Balart, Chairman (Florida)
440 Cannon House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
Phone: (202) 225-4211
Charlie Dent (Ohio)
1124 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
Phone: (202) 225-5731
David Joyce (Pennsylvania)
2082 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
Phone: (202) 225-6411
John Culberson (Texas)
2161 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, D.C. 20515
Phone: (202) 225-2571
31
David Young (Iowa)
240 Cannon House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
Phone: (202) 225-547
David Valadao (California)
1728 Longworth House Office Bldg
Washington, D.C. 20515
Phone: 202-225-4695
David Valadao (California)
1728 Longworth House Office Bldg
Washington, D.C. 20515
Phone: 202-225-4695
Tom Graves (Georgia)
2078 Rayburn House Office Bldg.
Washington, DC 20515
Phone: (202) 225-5211
Democrats:
David Price
2108 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
Phone: (202) 225-1784
Mike Quigley (Illinois)
2458 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
Phone: (202) 225-4061
Tim Ryan (Ohio)
1126 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
Phone: (202) 225-5261
Henry Cuellar (Texas)
2209 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
Phone: (202) 225-1640

32. Questions?
32

33. Longer commuting times ?
SOURCE:
http://ourtransitfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/June-Public-Information-Session_final_june-4.pdf
Bus travel time estimate = DO Corridor Alternatives Analysis, Apr 2012, page 5-39
http://ourtransitfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/02_Chapter-2_Alternatives_Considered-.pdf#page=48
http://www.dchcmpo.org/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?BlobID=28481
The mean travel time to work according
to the 2014 US Census is 22 minutes (Chapel Hill / Durham),
2040 Existing+Committed projected to be 27 minutes
yet the proposed 17 mile light rail train will take 46 minutes
(vs BRT 39 minutes)
Include wait time for the next train, time to get to/from the station (via Park&Ride,
Kiss&Ride, bicycle, walking, or bus transfer), it will be
even LONGER than 46 minutes.
How is this faster than the automobile that it is
supposed to replace?

34. Who pays for our roads ?
SOURCE:
https://www.ncdot.gov/about/finance/
NC DOT
State Funding Sources
for Roads
Transpor
NCDOT Funding Sources
2015-16 State Fiscal Year ($4.4 Billion)
Transportation
Distribution of 2015-16 NCDOT Funding
(Excludes Ferry and Turnpike Tolls)
NCDOT Expenditures
2015-16 State Fiscal Year ($4.4 Billion)

35. Reference: Original Assumptions
35

36. Durham Orange
Light Rail
36
Walking distance to Station
½ mile radius
½ mile limited access

37. 1
University Square- Moving toward construction –
> 300 Residential Units
> 210,000 SF Office
> 75,000 SF Retail
Glen Lennox
- Approved –
> 1,500 Residential Units
> 600,000 SF Office
> 150,000 SF Retail
> 150 Hotel rooms
2 Obey Creek
- Approved –
120 acres with a potential of 35 developed
> 600 Residential Units
> 375,000 SF Office/Civic
> 350,000 SF Retail
> 130 Hotel rooms
3
Ephesus-Church/Fordham
- Approved -
> 1,000 Residential Units
> 350,000 SF Office
> 250,000 SF Retail
> 150 Hotel rooms
4
5
Edge Development(Eubanks Road)
- in consideration –
> 400 Residential Units
> 100,000 SF Office
> 120,000 SF Retail
> 150+/- Hotel rooms
Central West (Small Area Plan)
- Approved –
6
Chapel Hill - New compact neighborhood developments

38. Durham Orange
Light Rail
38
1 2
3
4
5
6
Will not serve Chapel Hill Growth
 + 5.7 million sq ft office / retail /
residential to be added
 Existing / Higher population
density
 New compact neighborhoods
Southpoint Mall approx. 1.3 million sq ft retail space
Project Office Retail Residential * Units
1 123 W Franklin 120,000 55,000 240,000 300
2 Glen Lennox 600,000 150,000 1,200,000 1,500
3 Obey 225,000 400,000 560,000 700
4 Eph-Ford 350,000 250,000 800,000 1,000
5 Edge 100,000 120,000 32,0000 400
6 Central West 40,000 20,000 140,000 175
TOTAL 1,435,000 995,000 3,260,000 4,075
* = average 800 SF

39. DOLRT – Affordable Housing
39SOURCE: GoTriangle Financial Plan, Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit Project, NCCU Station Refinement Supplemental Environmental Assessment, 11/2016
The NCCU Station Refinement is expected to
result in the following direct and indirect effects to
land use:
 Acquisitions and displacements of residences
and businesses along Alston Avenue to allow for
widening of Alston Avenue to accommodate the
light rail trackway
 Pressure for increased density of development,
particularly around the proposed stations
 Acquisitions and displacements resulting from
indirect land use changes
 Gentrification and reduction in affordable
housing

40. DOLRT – Revised Ridership Forecast with NCCU
40SOURCE: GoTriangle Financial Plan, Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit Project, NCCU Station Refinement Supplemental Environmental Assessment, 11/2016

41. Moody’s model ?
41
 Assumes 4% sales tax growth over 50 years? (2011 to 2062)
 US GDP growth ~ 2%
 According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, there
were 33 business cycles between 1854 and 2009, with each full
cycle lasting roughly 56 months on average.
Wall Street Journal: Justice Department Investigating Moody’s Investors Service
Probe Looking Into Favorable Ratings on Mortgage Bonds Before the Financial Crisis
Fortune: Moody’s, nearly seven years too late, admits miscalculation in subprime ratings
USA Today: 2008 crisis still hangs over credit-rating firms
Reuters: Moody's Analytics election model predicts Clinton win
SOURCE: http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/2011/01/slowing_of_the_us_economy.html

42. y = -2E-06x3 + 0.1867x2 - 7487.5x + 1E+08
R² = 0.22711
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Jan2002
Apr2002
Jul2002
Oct2002
Jan2003
Apr2003
Jul2003
Oct2003
Jan2004
Apr2004
Jul2004
Oct2004
Jan2005
Apr2005
Jul2005
Oct2005
Jan2006
Apr2006
Jul2006
Oct2006
Jan2007
Apr2007
Jul2007
Oct2007
Jan2008
Apr2008
Jul2008
Oct2008
Jan2009
Apr2009
Jul2009
Oct2009
Jan2010
Apr2010
Jul2010
Oct2010
Jan2011
Apr2011
Jul2011
Oct2011
Jan2012
Apr2012
Jul2012
Oct2012
Jan2013
Apr2013
Jul2013
Oct2013
Jan2014
Apr2014
Jul2014
Oct2014
Jan2015
Apr2015
Jul2015
Oct2015
Jan2016
Apr2016
Jul2016
Oct2016
VTA
AverageDaily Ridership
All Modes
SOURCE: US Federal Transportation Administration - NTD Database
Jan 2002 thru Nov 2016
https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/data-product/monthly-module-raw-data-release
y = -0.0035x2 + 283.99x - 6E+06
R² = 0.50499
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan2002
Apr2002
Jul2002
Oct2002
Jan2003
Apr2003
Jul2003
Oct2003
Jan2004
Apr2004
Jul2004
Oct2004
Jan2005
Apr2005
Jul2005
Oct2005
Jan2006
Apr2006
Jul2006
Oct2006
Jan2007
Apr2007
Jul2007
Oct2007
Jan2008
Apr2008
Jul2008
Oct2008
Jan2009
Apr2009
Jul2009
Oct2009
Jan2010
Apr2010
Jul2010
Oct2010
Jan2011
Apr2011
Jul2011
Oct2011
Jan2012
Apr2012
Jul2012
Oct2012
Jan2013
Apr2013
Jul2013
Oct2013
Jan2014
Apr2014
Jul2014
Oct2014
Jan2015
Apr2015
Jul2015
Oct2015
Jan2016
Apr2016
Jul2016
Oct2016
TriMet
AverageDaily Ridership
All Modes
SOURCE: US Federal Transportation Administration - NTD Database
Jan 2002 thru Nov 2016
https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/data-product/monthly-module-raw-data-release
42
DOLRT: Promise vs Reality – Portland & San Jose Benchmarks
y = -0.003x2
+ 249.46x - 5E+06
R² = 0.72764
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Jan2002
Apr2002
Jul2002
Oct2002
Jan2003
Apr2003
Jul2003
Oct2003
Jan2004
Apr2004
Jul2004
Oct2004
Jan2005
Apr2005
Jul2005
Oct2005
Jan2006
Apr2006
Jul2006
Oct2006
Jan2007
Apr2007
Jul2007
Oct2007
Jan2008
Apr2008
Jul2008
Oct2008
Jan2009
Apr2009
Jul2009
Oct2009
Jan2010
Apr2010
Jul2010
Oct2010
Jan2011
Apr2011
Jul2011
Oct2011
Jan2012
Apr2012
Jul2012
Oct2012
Jan2013
Apr2013
Jul2013
Oct2013
Jan2014
Apr2014
Jul2014
Oct2014
Jan2015
Apr2015
Jul2015
Oct2015
Jan2016
Apr2016
Jul2016
Oct2016
TriMet
AverageDaily Ridership
Light Rail
SOURCE: US Federal Transportation Administration - NTD Database
Jan 2002 thru Nov 2016
https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/data-product/monthly-module-raw-data-release
MAX
+17% population growth
y = -0.0009x2 + 75.054x - 2E+06
R² = 0.70695
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Jan2002
Apr2002
Jul2002
Oct2002
Jan2003
Apr2003
Jul2003
Oct2003
Jan2004
Apr2004
Jul2004
Oct2004
Jan2005
Apr2005
Jul2005
Oct2005
Jan2006
Apr2006
Jul2006
Oct2006
Jan2007
Apr2007
Jul2007
Oct2007
Jan2008
Apr2008
Jul2008
Oct2008
Jan2009
Apr2009
Jul2009
Oct2009
Jan2010
Apr2010
Jul2010
Oct2010
Jan2011
Apr2011
Jul2011
Oct2011
Jan2012
Apr2012
Jul2012
Oct2012
Jan2013
Apr2013
Jul2013
Oct2013
Jan2014
Apr2014
Jul2014
Oct2014
Jan2015
Apr2015
Jul2015
Oct2015
Jan2016
Apr2016
Jul2016
Oct2016
VTA
AverageDaily Ridership
Light Rail
SOURCE: US Federal Transportation Administration - NTD Database
Jan 2002 thru Nov 2016
https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/data-product/monthly-module-raw-data-release
+16% population growth
LightRailONLY
AllPublicTransitLightRailONLY
AllPublicTransit

43. y = -0.0007x2
+ 53.448x - 1E+06
R² = 0.26711
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan2002
Apr2002
Jul2002
Oct2002
Jan2003
Apr2003
Jul2003
Oct2003
Jan2004
Apr2004
Jul2004
Oct2004
Jan2005
Apr2005
Jul2005
Oct2005
Jan2006
Apr2006
Jul2006
Oct2006
Jan2007
Apr2007
Jul2007
Oct2007
Jan2008
Apr2008
Jul2008
Oct2008
Jan2009
Apr2009
Jul2009
Oct2009
Jan2010
Apr2010
Jul2010
Oct2010
Jan2011
Apr2011
Jul2011
Oct2011
Jan2012
Apr2012
Jul2012
Oct2012
Jan2013
Apr2013
Jul2013
Oct2013
Jan2014
Apr2014
Jul2014
Oct2014
Jan2015
Apr2015
Jul2015
Oct2015
Jan2016
Apr2016
Jul2016
Oct2016
Chapel Hill Transit
AverageDaily Ridership
All Modes
SOURCE: US Federal Transportation Administration - NTD Database
Jan 2002 thru Nov 2016
https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/data-product/monthly-module-raw-data-release
y = -2E-07x3 + 0.0285x2 - 1128.3x + 1E+07
R² = 0.7147
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan2002
Apr2002
Jul2002
Oct2002
Jan2003
Apr2003
Jul2003
Oct2003
Jan2004
Apr2004
Jul2004
Oct2004
Jan2005
Apr2005
Jul2005
Oct2005
Jan2006
Apr2006
Jul2006
Oct2006
Jan2007
Apr2007
Jul2007
Oct2007
Jan2008
Apr2008
Jul2008
Oct2008
Jan2009
Apr2009
Jul2009
Oct2009
Jan2010
Apr2010
Jul2010
Oct2010
Jan2011
Apr2011
Jul2011
Oct2011
Jan2012
Apr2012
Jul2012
Oct2012
Jan2013
Apr2013
Jul2013
Oct2013
Jan2014
Apr2014
Jul2014
Oct2014
Jan2015
Apr2015
Jul2015
Oct2015
Jan2016
Apr2016
Jul2016
Oct2016
GoDurham
AverageDaily Ridership
All Modes
SOURCE: US Federal Transportation Administration - NTD Database
Jan 2002 thru Nov 2016
https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/data-product/monthly-module-raw-data-release
y = -0.0002x2 + 14.537x - 304260
R² = 0.84206
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan2002
Apr2002
Jul2002
Oct2002
Jan2003
Apr2003
Jul2003
Oct2003
Jan2004
Apr2004
Jul2004
Oct2004
Jan2005
Apr2005
Jul2005
Oct2005
Jan2006
Apr2006
Jul2006
Oct2006
Jan2007
Apr2007
Jul2007
Oct2007
Jan2008
Apr2008
Jul2008
Oct2008
Jan2009
Apr2009
Jul2009
Oct2009
Jan2010
Apr2010
Jul2010
Oct2010
Jan2011
Apr2011
Jul2011
Oct2011
Jan2012
Apr2012
Jul2012
Oct2012
Jan2013
Apr2013
Jul2013
Oct2013
Jan2014
Apr2014
Jul2014
Oct2014
Jan2015
Apr2015
Jul2015
Oct2015
Jan2016
Apr2016
Jul2016
Oct2016
GoTriangle
AverageDaily Ridership
All Modes
SOURCE: US Federal Transportation Administration - NTD Database
Jan 2002 thru Nov 2016
https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/data-product/monthly-module-raw-data-release
y = -4E-07x3 + 0.0442x2 - 1743.8x + 2E+07
R² = 0.87756
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan2002
Apr2002
Jul2002
Oct2002
Jan2003
Apr2003
Jul2003
Oct2003
Jan2004
Apr2004
Jul2004
Oct2004
Jan2005
Apr2005
Jul2005
Oct2005
Jan2006
Apr2006
Jul2006
Oct2006
Jan2007
Apr2007
Jul2007
Oct2007
Jan2008
Apr2008
Jul2008
Oct2008
Jan2009
Apr2009
Jul2009
Oct2009
Jan2010
Apr2010
Jul2010
Oct2010
Jan2011
Apr2011
Jul2011
Oct2011
Jan2012
Apr2012
Jul2012
Oct2012
Jan2013
Apr2013
Jul2013
Oct2013
Jan2014
Apr2014
Jul2014
Oct2014
Jan2015
Apr2015
Jul2015
Oct2015
Jan2016
Apr2016
Jul2016
Oct2016
GoRaleigh
AverageDaily Ridership
All Modes
SOURCE: US Federal Transportation Administration - NTD Database
Jan 2002 thru Nov 2016
https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/data-product/monthly-module-raw-data-release
43
DOLRT: Promise vs Reality – Triangle Ridership Profiles
+19% population growth +44% population growth
+36% population growth

44. UNC Study 9/3/2015
NC in Focus: Commuting by Public Transportation
1259 daily commuters cross
between Durham / Orange counties
using public transit
How many people use public transit
between Durham / Orange counties?
SOURCE:
http://demography.cpc.unc.edu/2015/09/03/nc-in-focus-commuting-by-public-transportation/
http://ourtransitfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/03_Chapter-3_Transportation.pdf#page=19
http://ourtransitfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/03_Chapter-3_Transportation.pdf#page=13
310 daily riders and operates 16 hours on weekday
in 30 minute intervals in both directions. [DEIS 3-10]
Average of 5 passengers per bus every day
The ‘demand’ for student & faculty between UNC and Duke is
155 passengers (RT) per weekday
to use public transportation?
Gillig Bus
Hybrid Engine
Capacity
 29: 28 seating
 35': 32
 40': 40
MPG = 4.65 mpg
Cost = $580K each
RSX Express
UNC Duke

45. 45
Is DOLRT really faster?
GoTriangle presentation @
Chamber of Commerce Forum
on Feb 22, 2017
https://www.slideshare.net/carolinachamber/gotriangle-update-on-dolrt-project

46. 46
Is DOLRT really faster?
Or ~14 minutes taking
GoTriangle 400 to
Duke Hospital (w/stop
@ Red Roof Inn)
GoTriangle 400
~14 minute trip
CHT T Direct
12 minute
trip
6 miles
21–9=12minutes

47. The DOLRT is planning 20% farebox recovery
of the estimated $29 Million O&M budget
represents $23 Million in annual tax liability
for Orange and Durham County residents.
Farebox recovery less than 20% …
So let’s do the math ...
$29M Operating & Maintenance budget
@ 20% farebox recovery planned (currently 11%)
----------
$5.8M collected in fares
$2 fare (less than current $3 GoTriangle EXPRESS fare) $1.15
-----------
2.9M annual boardings
200 days (workdays only) 290
-----------
14,500 daily boardings? (if 20% farebox recovery)
- OR -
7975 daily boardings (if 11% farebox recovery)
SOURCE:
http://ourtransitfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Appendix-K29-Operating-and-Maintenance-Cost-Results.pdf#page=11
http://ourtransitfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Adopted-Orange-County-BRI-Plan-with-Appendices-revised-9-27-20121.pdf#page=24
http://www.triangletransit.org/fares-and-passes
http://www.slideshare.net/SCVTA/the-future-of-vta-light-rail-presentation-to-spur

48. SOURCE: https://www.itdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/More-Development-For-Your-Transit-Dollar_ITDP.pdf
“While the belief that LRT is more likely to have significant
TOD impacts than BRT is widespread, the matter had not,
until now, been systematically studied.” p.6
“… there are currently no cases in the US
where LRT should be favored over BRT.”
p.21
“Otherwise, any perceived advantages of
LRT over BRT are primarily aesthetic and
political rather than technical.” p.20
Impact of Transit alternatives
on Transit Oriented Developments

49. Charlotte Observer: Lynx light rail ridership back to 2008 levels
However, the train’s seven years have shown that it’s been difficult for CATS to get new riders, even as uptown employment
has grown significantly and thousands of new apartments have been built along the line in uptown and the South End.
Former UNC Charlotte transportation consultant David Hartgen, a transportation consultant, said ridership suggests
light rail is losing market share in the commuting corridor along South Boulevard, Interstate 77
and Park Road.
“The fundamental assumption is that the Lynx traffic would increase as the region got
denser,” he said.
“That hasn’t happened.”
The Charlotte experience ?
Lynx daily ridership stagnates @ ~16,000 over last 7 years
while population grew 20%
and fuel prices had no apparent impact on ridership
SOURCE:
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article9264719.html
http://www.its.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/publications/UCB/2011/VWP/UCB-ITS-VWP-2011-6.pdf
http://charlottechamber.com/clientuploads/Economic_pdfs/PopulationEstimates.pdf
Charlotte Lynx service started Nov 27, 2007
http://www.NorthCarolinaGasPrices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx?city1=&city2=Charlotte&city3=&crude=n&tme=108&units=us
UC Berkeley INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION STUDIES
Urban Densities and Transit A Multi-dimensional Perspective
Nevertheless, 10 rail systems fail to produce net positive benefits under the scenario. Charlotte, Buffalo, New Jersey
Transit, Pittsburgh, and San Jose perform particularly badly. These systems do not have enough
riders to produce the economies of scale that make transit provision by rail
significantly less expensive than bus.
$4.10
$1.56

50. 50
DOLRT: Promise vs Reality – Charlotte Siemens S70
SOURCE:
http://www.wsoctv.com/news/repairs-for-lynx-trains-to-cost-65m/329915899
https://w3.usa.siemens.com/mobility/us/en/interurban-mobility/rail-solutions/high-speed-and-intercity-trains/Documents/Charlotte_DataSheet_2014_LR.pdf