Keynote Address-Innovating from a Legacy Platform

Innovating from a
Legacy Platform
Jack Shaw (@jackshaw)
April 17, 2012

© 2012, Confidential and Proprietary Information of Breakthrough Business Technologies, LLC, All Rights Reserved
A View of the Future

The Queen Elizabeth

Boeing 707

A Valuable Legacy, but…

The First Four Waves of
Business Technology
Mainframe
60s – 70s
Internet
2000s
PC
80s
Client/Server
90s

Each Wave of
Business Technology
• Requires deployment of a
critical mass of
its predecessor wave
to achieve rapid growth
and broad acceptance.
• Has an exponentially greater impact
on business and society
than its predecessor.

20th Century Computing

Emerging Technologies
Past Present Immediate Future Intermediate Future
Internet
WWW
e-Commerce
Mobile
Cloud
2000 2010 – 2011 2012 – 2013 2015

Something Remarkable in 2011

No Need for Phones
"The Americans have
need of the
telephone, but we do
not. We have plenty
of messenger boys."
--Sir William
Preece, chief
engineer, British
Post Office, 1876

Global Internet Users will Double –
and most will be Mobile

Explosive Growth of Tablets
• 2011 Worldwide tablet sales were about
63.6 million units, a
• 261.4% increase from 2010 sales of 17.6
million units, according to Gartner, Inc.
• Tablet sales will experience strong
growth through 2015 when sales are
forecast to reach 326.3 million units.
• 2015 PC market will be only just ahead
at 535 million units.
• Tablets alone are going to have effective
parity with PCs within 4 – 5 years.

Consumerization of IT - 1

“Ubiquitous computing is
inevitable.”
Within the next few years,
you won't be anywhere that
you won't have access to
any data plus massive
computational capabilities.”
— Bill Wulf, President
US National Academy of Engineering, 2002
Ubiquitous Computing

Cloud Computing

$11B  $30B in 5 Years!
• Market research firm IDC
• Market for public cloud IT service
• Expected to grow at an average rate of
21.6% between 2009 and 2014
• Reaching almost $30 billion.
• That compares to revenue of about
$11 billion in 2009.

6 Ways Cloud Computing
Will Change Business
• A new generation of
products and services.
• The rise of new industry
leaders and IT vendors.
• Reconciliation of SOA
with the cloud and other
new IT models.
• More self-service IT
from the business-side.
• More tolerance for
innovation and
experimentation from
businesses.
• The slow-moving,
dinosaur firms will
have trouble keeping
up with more nimble
adopters and fast-
followers.

Fasten Your Seatbelts

No Future In Television
"Television won't be
able to hold onto any
market it captures
after the first six
months. People will
soon get tired of
staring at a plywood
box every night." --
Daryl Zanuck, film
producer, co-founder
of 20th Century Fox

The Fifth Wave
Mainframe
70s
Intelligent Systems
21st Century
Internet
Late 90s
PC
80s
Client/Server
90s

Big data—a growing torrent
• $600 to buy a disk drive that can store all of the world’s
music
• 5 billion mobile phones in use in 2010
• 30 billion pieces of content shared on Facebook every
month
• 40% projected growth in global data generated per year
vs.
• 5% growth in global IT spending
• 235 terabytes data collected by the US Library of
Congress by April 2011
• 15 out of 17 sectors in the United States have more data
stored per company than the US Library of Congress
Source: McKinsey Global Institute,
“Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity”

Big Data

Business Decisions
"Most discussions of decision
making assume that only
senior executives make
decisions or that only senior
executives' decisions matter.
This is a dangerous mistake."
— Peter Drucker
Peter Drucker, "What Makes an
Effective Executive," Harvard
Business Review, Vol. 82, No. 6,
June 2004

Decision Management
Decision Management (DM) is a systematic approach to automate
and improve decisions across the enterprise.
It allows businesses to:
Make more profitable
and targeted
decisions
PRECISION
In the same way, over
and over again
CONSISTENCY
While being able to
adapt “on-the-fly”
AGILITY
FAST LOW COST

Beyond BI & Data Warehousing
• Business “Intelligence” is retrospective.
– Looking at historical data for trends
– BI systems designed for:
• Occasional
• Low volume
• Manual use
• Trained experts
• Decision Management is forward looking.
– Continuous
– Real-time
– High Volume
– Operational decisions
– Existing staff

Internet
WWW
e-Commerce
Cloud
Mobile
“Big Data”
Decision Management
2000 2010 – 2011 2012 – 2013 2015

The Limits Of PC Memory
"No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal
computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody." --Bill Gates, co-
founder and chairman of Microsoft

DM and Intelligent Systems
• Implementing DM means
automating (some) decisions, BUT
• Gaining the full benefits of DM means
automating many decisions.
• While some decisions can be automated using
just simple, “If, Then, Else” program logic,
• Many more decisions can be automated by
using intelligent systems technologies.

Intelligent Systems Technologies
• Business Rules Management Systems
• Constraint Programming
• Optimization Algorithms
• Pattern Recognition
• Predictive Analytics
• Bayesian Belief Networks
• Case Based Reasoning
• Cognitive Systems

What Cognitive Systems Do
• Capture the Knowledge of Human Experts in
Knowledge Bases
• Uses Knowledge in Knowledge Bases to
– Reason about information flowing through the system
– In the same ways that experts reason about similar
information.
• Works 24 X 7
• Never forgets anything relevant
• Can “think” 10,000 times faster than people.

Autonomous Systems

Watson –
and the Jeopardy Challenge

Value of Cognitive Systems in IT
• Expert human analysts assessed
the threat risks of certain individuals
based a few dozen queries
in an average of one hour
• Government Cognitive System
makes the same assessments
based on over 10,000 queries
in an average of one minute.
• Productivity of Analysts increased 50 Times!
With Higher Accuracy –
Fewer False Positives or Negatives

Inevitable Surprises

Internet
WWW
e-Commerce
Cloud
Mobile
“Big Data”
Intelligent
Decision Management
Probabilistic Reasoning
Cognitive Systems
2000 2010 – 2011 2012 – 2013 2015

Burj Khalifa – Dubai

A Valuable Legacy – Modernized!

Last Mainframe Unplugged?
“The last mainframe
will be unplugged
by 1996."
– 1991
Stewart Alsop
Editor-in-Chief
InfoWorld

Homo COBOLProgrammerensis
Homo COBOLProgrammerensis as
spotted on a System 390 in 1999.

The Natural Environment for
H. Cobolprogrammerensis

H. Cobolprogrammerensis to
H. Generalprogrammerensis
• COBOL programming roles tend to require
business awareness skills as well as programming
language expertise.
• Integration is a major strength of COBOL
– Composite Applications: Java, XML, SOA
– MUST separate presentation logic (UI) and
business code.
• COBOL developers can no longer be
ONLY COBOL developers

New Pastures for Hunting
Their Natural Prey*
*The Bug

Why Modernize?
• Immediate access to real world data
• To integrate with third parties web applications
• To interface with Mobile apps
• To interface with Cloud
• To integrate with packages for Data Analytics,
BI, and Decision Management
• Significant reduction in mainframe costs
• Soaring customer satisfaction levels

• It’s not enough to
accept change
• It’s not even
enough to
embrace change
You’ve got to SEEK OUT change.
Time for Change

Change & Progress
“Change does not
necessarily
assure progress,
but progress
implacably
requires change.”
Historian Henry Steele Commager

Follow Up
• Jack Shaw, President
Breakthrough Business Technologies
• M: 770-910-5969
• Jack@e-com.com
• www.e-com.com
• www.gplus.to/JackShaw
• www.Twitter.com/JackShaw
• www.YouTube.com/user/JackShaw4728
• www.facebook.com/JackShawTechnology
• www.LinkedIn.com/in/JackShawTechnology
• www.BusinessTechnologyFuturist.WordPress.com

Keynote Address-Innovating from a Legacy Platform

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