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Peter Garforth: The Power of Energy Efficiency - Creating Globally Competitive Communities - June 14, 2012
- 1. The Power of Energy Efficiency Creating Globally Competitive Communities Peter Garforth Principal – Garforth International llc Energy Efficiency and Local Economic Opportunity June 14th, Traverse City, Michigan Insatiable Global Appetite for Energy Forecast to double by 2030 Source: IIASA / BP / EIA / Eurostat 1
- 2. Growing Energy Uncertainties Unpredictable energy prices Dependence on imports and supply security Impacts of climate change legislation Under-invested energy infrastructure China and India major new energy customers Blackouts, weather events, water shortages.. Regulation of shale gas and oil Nuclear moratorium? –Energy price impacts? Energy innovation? – Competitive advantage? Managing Risk and Opportunity Population GDP / Energy Growth Redefining our World! Non-OECD Countries driving energy demand Source BP 2011 Statistical Review of World Energy 2
- 3. Extreme Weather Events More frequent extremes Asian Floods Russian heat storm EU Deep Freeze US floods, tornados, droughts Heat storms / floods Impacts of rising temperatures Sea rise 8" to 12" in last 50 years Changing crop yields Arctic opening up for exploration Higher intensity hurricanes Energy use a suspected contributor How will this impact energy costs? Climate Change Making Headlines again in USA Energy Cost and Reliability Risks Increasing US Transmission Grid Disturbances Insurance Claims Weather events increasing 2011 may be costliest on record Average 180,000 people /event affected 2008..09..10 costliest three years Unforced events also at historic highs $30 Bn Private claims in these years Importance of Local Strategies Sources: UD DOE-EIA, US GAO 3
- 4. Energy Productivity Differences How well do we spend our $1.5 Trillion? Energy Energy Region Population GDP Energy /Capita /GDP USA 4.5% 23.0% 17.8% 100 100 Canada 0.5% 2.5% 2.1% 107 108 EU 7.4% 30.3% 13.0% 45 56 Japan 1.9% 7.8% 3.9% 53 65 China 19.7% 6.8% 16.1% 21 307 India 17.1% 2.0% 4.9% 7 319 World 100% 100% 100% 22 198 Key to National Competitiveness *IEA and World Bank – 2009 sources Total US Energy Use ~ $1.5 Trillion Most in Urban Environment Coal Homes Buildings 40.4% Gas Commercial Domestic Oil Industry Uranium Industry 31.4% Renewable Transport Transportation 28.1% Imported Oil Largest User is Buildings Source: US DoE EIA - 2008 4
- 5. US Electricity Supply Chain Wasted Conversion Energy Coal Losses 70% Gas Nuclear Sold Renewable Electricity 30% Largest Cause of Greenhouse Gas Source: US DoE EIA 2007 Benchmark Efficiencies by Sector USA / EU Energy Example Sector Share Index USA/EU Industry 32% 1.2 : 1 Homes & Buildings 40% 2.5 : 1 Transportation 29% 1.4 : 1 Homes & Building efficiency opportunity by far the largest Industrial efficiency potential often overestimated High potential for productivity gains! *Indicative ratio of US average to EU Average 5
- 6. Dysfunctional Energy Supply Chain From fuel to service Uses 70% of all energy 25% 5% High-cost low returns High risk High emissions Pay 100 for fuel - Get less than 10 in services Why Communities Care New Energy Realities… Community Values and Image Investment and Green Jobs Unpredictable energy prices Supply quality and security Environmental legislation Weather events Nuclear and coal uncertainties… Fundamentally Different From Past 6
- 7. Successful Community Energy Planning Three Groups of Balanced Benefits Competitiveness Security Environment Breakthroughs are Achievable Wide Range of Energy Performance Emissions per Resident USA - Total USA - "Municipal" EU - Total EU - "Municipal" Holland. MI Loudoun, VA Arlington, VA Guelph, Ontario Mannheim, Germany Copenhagen, Denmark mt CO2 / capita 0 10 20 30 Communities Embracing Challenge 7
- 8. Setting Breakthrough Goals Reduction Targets per Resident USA - Total USA - "Municipal" EU - Total EU - "Municipal" Holland. MI Loudoun, VA Arlington, VA Guelph, Ontario Mannheim, Germany Copenhagen, Denmark mt CO2 / capita 0 10 20 30 We know how to get there! Global and Local Benchmarks Example of Copenhagen Triggered by 70’s energy crisis 3.0 tons / capita GHG Efficiency World leading building efficiency Energy Performance Validation District Energy Widespread across city Fuel flexibility Multi-fuel cogeneration Coal, oil, gas, biofuel, waste-to-energy Wind and solar generation Transport Urban design for bike/walking Efficient trams/trains City-wide EV plans High Value Employment 2009 – Voted “Second Most Livable City” 8
- 9. City of Holland Energy Use $135 M Annual Cost of Energy Primary Energy / Fuel 2010 9,898,000 MMBtue / 2,900,000 MWhe by type by sector Major Building Efficiency Opportunity City of Holland Emissions 24 mt per Resident 2010 Energy Related Emissions 792,500 metric tons / 873,600 short tons CO2e by type by sector Major Fuel Efficiency Opportunity 9
- 10. Holland Community Energy Plan 2011 to 2050 Goals Energy Mission Enhance City attractiveness to investors, businesses and residents through cost effective, reliable clean energy supply Lower cost energy than neighbouring communities Highly reliable electricity supply from local sources Industrial Energy Service tailored to investors’ needs Flexibility to meet changing technologies, legislation, fuel costs and other market conditions Meet commitment to the U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement Be a leader in developing regional energy productivity strategy Comprehensive Plan with Year on Year Targets Efficiency always comes First! Loading Order / Trias Energetica 1. Energy efficiency - If you don’t need it don’t use it 2. Heat Recovery – It it’s already there – use it 3. Renewable energy – If it makes sense, go carbon free 4. Energy distribution – Invest where it makes sense Integrated Approach – Tailored for Community 10
- 11. Home & Building Efficiency in Nutshell Benefits Energy not used is always the cheapest Energy not used is always the cleanest Major reduction of energy costs Economically viable efficiencies of 30% to 60% Create good local jobs Sets the stage for deeper community wide energy efficiencies Challenges Rapidly achieving large enough scale Readily available and affordable financing Lifetime Performance validation Energy Performance Labeling Homes and Buildings Low-cost performance validation tool Available when sold or rented Display in public buildings Independent certification Discount financing Voluntary approaches work fine! Basis for Market Driven Improvement 11
- 12. Impact of Efficiency Example from Arlington County Base Case Crucial First Step High Quality Employment Clean Economy- Ohio Clean Jobs 105,306 6th in USA Growth since 2003 16,793 jobs / 2.5% per year 12th / 38th in USA Share of Total Jobs 2.0% 27th in USA Median Wage $39,275 10% higher than average Quality Jobs with Modest Education 12
- 13. High Quality Employment Clean Economy- Michigan Clean Jobs 76,941 12th in USA Growth since 2003 -1,596 jobs / -0.3% per year Last / Last in USA Share of Total Jobs 1.9% 27th in USA Median Wage $40,558 7% higher than average New Opportunity? Four years down the Road…. From City of Guelph , Ontario Passed Energy Plan in 2007 by unanimous council vote National Role Model Over 2,000 Green jobs City major influence on regional and national policy Guelph boasts lowest jobless rate in country Thursday, September, 15, 2011 - 10:10:02 AM It may not be an all-time low, but Guelph’s unemployment rate for August came close at 4.7 per cent – the lowest in the country. “…Initiatives such as Guelph’s Community Energy Initiative contribute to the long-term prosperity of the city and make it more appealing to business investment …” 13
- 14. A Little City with Big Dreams Växjö, Sweden Population: 60,800 Mixed Urban / Rural Efficiency targets from1980’s Fossil-free target set in 1996 50% achieved Integrated Approach Efficient Homes and Buildings Community engagement Flexible District Heating Cogeneration Biomass fuel focus Global-EU-National role model Tourism and Investment Global Media and Policy focus Voted Greenest City In Europe in 2007 Växjö Energy Emissions Results to date Current Focus - Transport 14
- 15. Grand Traverse County North American Role Model? Mixed Urban / Rural Mixed High and Low-Densities Pursue breakthrough energy concepts North American role model for smaller mixed urban/rural communities Potential for Integrated Approaches Efficient Homes and Buildings Community engagement District Energy Clean and Renewable supplies Low-impact Transport Tourism and Investment Local value-added and jobs Magnet for policy focus and support Could GTC have a Big Energy Goal? Thank You Peter Garforth Garforth International llc peter@garforthint.com +1 (419) 578 9613 - Office +1 (419) 320 0664 - Mobile 15