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AlexChausovsky_Inside3DPrintingSingapore_2015
1.
Information | Analytics
| Expertise © 2014 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED THE IMPACT OF 3D PRINTING ON INDUSTRIALMANUFACTURING INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE JANUARY 28, 2015 ALEX CHAUSOVSKY SENIOR PRINCIPAL ANALYST INDUSTRIAL AUTOMATION +1 (512) 582 2012 ALEX.CHAUSOVSKY@IHS.COM
2.
© 2014 IHS Contents About
IHS 3 CapEx, Machinery Production and Automation Equipment Overview 6 3D Printing Technology and Capabilities Overview 11 The Threats and Opportunities for 3D Printing in Industrial Manufacturing 23 INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
3.
© 2014 IHS Alex
Chausovsky Manager & Principal Analyst IHS Technology – Industrial Automation Shaping the Future with Super-Efficient Electric Motors February 27th, 2014 • Introduction to IHS • Introduction to Electric Motors and Industrial Energy Efficiency • Industrial Motors Market Update About IHS
4.
© 2014 IHS IHS
- Leading information, advanced analytics and deep expertise IHS Since 1959 Headquartered in Englewood, CO (traded on the NYSE) 8,000+ colleagues in 30+ countries speaking 50+ languages Serve businesses and governments in 165+ countries worldwide 70% of the US Fortune 1000 85% of the Global Fortune 500 Small businesses & enterprises IHS is supported by 140+ offices around the world United States United Kingdom Canada India Singapore Malaysia China France Germany Switzerland Poland Japan Belarus Brazil South Korea Russian Federation United Arab Emirates Norway Australia Spain South Africa Mexico Hong Kong Netherlands Thailand Taiwan Italy Denmark Sweden INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
5.
© 2014 IHS IHS
Business Lines • Economics • Country Risk • Operational Excellence and Risk Management • Product Design • Supply Chain • Aerospace & Defense • Automotive • Chemicals • Technology • Energy • Financial Services • Maritime INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
6.
© 2014 IHS Alex
Chausovsky Manager & Principal Analyst IHS Technology – Industrial Automation Shaping the Future with Super-Efficient Electric Motors February 27th, 2014 • Introduction to IHS • Introduction to Electric Motors and Industrial Energy Efficiency • Industrial Motors Market Update CapEx, Machinery Production and Automation Equipment Updates
7.
© 2014 IHS CapEx
Analysis Improved Macroeconomic Performance Government Investment Profits for End-Users Transport & Defence Budgets Consumer and Business Spending Capital Expenditure Spend in 2014 5.7% Growth Machinery Production Automation Products substantial portion in MP Automation Products Direct to End-Users (Retrofit) Building, Land, Services & Other 5% Of Spend 52% Of Spend 43% Of Spend $3.8 Trillion INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
8.
© 2014 IHS Americas
Europe Asia Pacific World % of world total CAGR (2012-2018) Agricultural Machinery 11.1% 7.4% $51.5bn $78.7bn Food, Beverage & Tobacco Machinery 3.3% 4.4% $7.8bn $14.6bn Furnaces & Furnace Burners 1.3% 4.8% $4.4bn $9.4bn Machine Tools 6.2% 2.0% $6.9bn $56.5bn Materials Handling 12.9% 5.5% $21.6bn $93.4bn Packaging Machinery 2.7% 5.5% $4.6bn $14.2bn Paper & Paperboard Machinery 1.3% 1.3% $3.0bn $6.0bn Printing Machinery 1.3% 1.9% $3.1bn $6.1bn Robotics 0.8% 2.4% $1.7bn $6.7bn Rubber & Plastics Machinery 2.5% 2.3% $5.0bn $13.2bn Semiconductor Machinery 2.2% 2.4% $10.6bn $17.6bn Textile Machinery 2.5% 2.5% $1.0bn $23.4bn Woodworking Machinery 0.8% 2.4% $1.3bn $3.6bn $5.9bn $13.9bn $7.8bn Trend Line (2012 -2018) $81.6bn $21.9bn $10.1bn $11.4bn $4.5bn $19.6bn $38.4bn $27.2bn $6.6bn $30.8bn MACHINERY PRODUCTION SUMMARY ≈ $170B ≈ $50B ≈ $95B ≈ $197B ≈ $40B ≈ $38B ≈ $34B ≈ $38B ≈ $1.7 Trillion of Machinery produced in 2014 INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
9.
© 2014 IHS MACHINERY
PRODUCTION BY REGION Americas Europe Asia Pacific 2013 $330bn $500bn $691bn 2018 $400bn $599bn $988bn 32.9% 21.7% 45.4% % of 2013 global machinery production INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
10.
© 2014 IHS 2014
Key Point Summary – Industrial Automation $185.3b 2014 Equipment Revenue 28.8% Automation Equipment31.1% Motors & Motor Controls40.1% Power Transmission Equipment 2014 Regional Sales Growth Americas 6.9% EMEA 4.3% Asia 7.7% Japan 5.4% 2014 Market Drivers 45% IAE Sales into Discrete Manufacturing Machinery Production 6.3% Growth 41% IAE Sales into Process Manufacturing Capital Expenditure 5.4% Growth 3.1% Global GDP Growth $47.4 billion Motors $31.8 billion Discrete Controllers $26.9 billion Motor Controls $36.5 billion Linear & Fluid Products INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS 3D
Printing Technology and Capabilities Overview
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© 2014 IHS The
Impact of 3D Printing Technology A Transformative Manufacturing Process 3D Printing, also called Additive Manufacturing, “adds” materials to create products, rather than “subtracting” them as is typical in traditional manufacturing processes. This presents significant potential cost savings to manufacturers that invest in the technology. Products are designed using complex computer software platforms and are then printed layer by layer, allowing for features that were not possible with traditional machine or human manufacturing techniques. Currently, the biggest drawbacks for 3D Printing are size and speed limitations, which prevent the technology from replacing many assembly line manufacturing processes. Although the technology has existed since the 1980s, 3D Printing has really gone mainstream in the last five years. Some industries that the technology has penetrated include: Consumer Products: Clothing, Shoes, Jewelry, Toys, Home Décor, Electronics Medical Products: Joint Replacements, Prosthetics, Crowns / Invisalign Braces Industrial Products: Tools, Molds, Fuel Injection Nozzles, Gas Turbine Parts, Pumps What benefits and drawbacks does 3D Printing technology have compared to traditional manufacturing techniques? INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Overview
of 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing Technologies Vat Photopolymerization: Stereolithography (SLA), Digital Light Processing (DLP) • Liquid photopolymers, either plastics or wax, are selectively cured, normally using UV light. Powder Bed Fusion: Selective Laser Sintering (SLS), Direct Metal Laser Sintering (DMLS), Selective Heat Sintering (SHS) and Electron Beam Melting (EBM) • Thermal energy (lasers) used to fuse materials, either metals or plastics, in a powder bed. Directed Energy Deposition: Laser Metal Deposition (LMD) • Thermal energy (lasers) used to fuse materials, either metals or plastics, as they are deposited Binder Jetting: Powder Bed and Inkjet Head (PBIH), Plaster-based Printing (PP) • Metal or plastic powders bound together using a specialized glue and then cured in an oven for post processing. INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Overview
of 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing Technologies Material Extrusion: Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM), Fused Filament Fabrication (FFF) • Two plastic cords (build & support material) extruded through a heated nozzle that melts the plastic and traces out a pattern. FDM is the basis for most home-use systems. Material Jetting: Multi-jet Modeling (MJM) • Droplets of plastic build material are selectively deposited on a platform and cured by UV light. Sheet Lamination: Ultrasonic Consolidation (UC), Laminated Object Manufacturing (LOM) • Older technology in which sheets of material - paper, plastic or metal - are bonded together to form an object. Coming in 2016: Hewlett Packard’s Multi Jet Fusion (MJF) technology INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Implementation
of 3D printing technology into our everyday lives, both personal and business Integration of 3D printing technology with traditional manufacturing processes, materials and software Invention of technology and development of first hardware prototype 1987 2010 2025 Metals & other industrial materials Wide Adoption by Consumers & Businesses Industrial Manufacturing Medical and Biotechnology Applications Titanium, Stainless Steel Nickel and Cobalt Chrome Alloys Aluminum, Gold, Inconel Epoxy resins, Ceramics, Sand Carbon Fiber (new) Plastics ABS, Nylon, PLA, HIPS Polycarbonates Glass-filled Polyamide Photopolymers and Wax Time TechnologyCapabilities ~2000 The Impact of 3D Printing Technology Biomaterials Moldable Polymers Human Cells and Tissues Synthetic Tissues Rapid Prototyping 2020 INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS •
Increases design innovation by creating new structures and shapes; engineers are able to take an idea, create a CAD model, and have a part in their hands by the next day. They are then able to see exactly how it fits into the piece of equipment they are building. It also improves the design process by allowing for new combinations of materials. • Speeds up time to market by making the idea to prototype cycle much shorter. Necessary adjustments to prototypes are made quickly and new prototypes are printed within hours or days, which really speeds up the entire design process. • Reduces development costs and waste by using less materials, and increases personalization of products for customers, without additional cost increases. • Reverse-engineering of old, outdated parts is possible through digital scanning. The part might be 20 years old and there was never a CAD model for it. The engineers can scan it, turn it into a CAD model and then 3D print it and have complete repeatability. The Impact of 3D Printing Technology INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Expiring
Patents • In 2009, expiration of several foundation patents for Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) enabled the emergence of lower-cost desktop printers from companies like Makerbot, as well as consumer-facing 3D printer service providers such as Shapeways. • Another major shift occurring as foundation patents on other 3D printing technologies expire, lowering costs for Stereolithography (SLA), Selective Laser Sintering (SLS), and 3DP from MIT, and widening the range of capabilities available to users. • Patents on selective laser melting (SLM) expires in late 2016. • This is resulting in increased competition among SLA, SLS, other printer suppliers as new entrants penetrate the market in the coming years. INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Market
Data: 3D Printing Industry Growth Projections Source: IHS Technology (January 2015) INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE Revenue Forecast for the 3D Printing Industry from 2014 to 2020 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 Y2017 Y2018 Y2019 Y2020 Consumer Systems and Parts Industrial Systems and Parts Service Providers Materials Tooling Revenues($B)
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© 2014 IHS Market
Data: Additive Manufacturing Value by Sector Source: IHS Technology (January 2015) Automotive, 16.0% Aerospace, 14.0% Industrial, 19.0%Consumer Products & Electronics, 21.0% Medical & Dental, 12.0% Academia, 7.0% Military & Defense, 8.0% Architecture, 2.0% Other, 1.0% Additive Manufacturing Sales by Sector 2014 Projections INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Suppliers
– Industrial Grade 3D Printers • 3D Systems* • Arcam* • Beijing Tiertime* • Carima • CMET • Concept Laser • DWS • EOS* • Envisiontec* • ExOne* • Mcor* • Optomec • Rapid Shape • Shaanxi Hengtong • SLM Solutions • Stratasys* • Voxeljet* • Wuhan Binhu * Top printer manufacturers own over 40% of the 3D printer market, and more than 90% of the industrial grade 3D printer market. INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS •
Hewlett Packard • Canon • Epson • Xerox • 3M • Google • Microsoft • Apple • Samsung • IBM • Amazon Big Names Getting Involved in the Industry Traditional 2D printer manufacturers that are planning on entering the market in the near future. These players have deep pockets and a lot of expertise in printing technology. They are focusing on addressing the current limitations of the technology, namely speed, size and cost issues. INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS 3D
Printing Challenges and Limitations • Prohibitive Printer and Materials Costs • Speed and Size limitations • Intellectual Property Concerns • Environmental Impact • Effect on Traditional Manufacturing Jobs • Required Certifications for Medical/Aerospace INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS The
Threats and Opportunities for3D Printing in Industrial Manufacturing
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© 2014 IHS Threat:
Replacement of MT and Plastics Machinery 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Metal Cutting Machines Metal Forming Machines Plastic Machinery Revenues($M)UnitVolume 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Metal Cutting Machines 428337 440899 474609 424814 448071 472149 497251 521029 Metal Forming Machines 532374 512743 506927 535857 573819 612734 654446 694128 Plastic Machinery 291526 298168 309413 320246 350020 381353 415081 448435 Total 1252237 1251809 1290949 1280917 1371910 1466236 1566778 1663592 INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS 3D
Printing vs. Machine Tooling and Plastics Injection Molding INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Threat:
Replacement of MT and Plastics Machinery Motors & Drives, 18% Mechanics for Electric Drive Systems, 14% Pneumatics, 7% Hydraulic Drives & Valves, 9% Linear & Rotary Handling, 9% Automation & Motion Control Products, 26% Machine Safety Products, 1% Low Voltage Products, 7% Machine Vision Products, 1% Sensors, 8% Automation Product Breakdown Machine Tools and Plastics Machinery INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Opportunity
and Threat in One: Hybrid & Large Scale Above: DMG MORI’s LASERTEC 65 3D Right: Sciaky’s EBAM AM System Others: Mazak Integrex i-400AM, etc. Image Source: SciakyImage Source: DMG MORI INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Opportunity:
Increased Sales of Automation Components More than 70,000 personal 3D printers were sold in 2013. This number is expected to grow to over 100,000 this year, and rapidly over the next decade. Each printer contains one or more electric motors. There were nearly 10,000 industrial grade 3D printers sold in 2013. The potential for future growth in industrial applications exceeds that of the consumer space. Each machine has multiple servo motors. INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Opportunity:
Production of Automation Equipment using Additive Manufacturing Systems Nearly 50 million low voltage motors were made in 2013. The leading motor manufacturers are experimenting with potentially using additive manufacturing techniques in the future. Industrial electronics, such as variable speed drives, represent a large and rapidly growing market. In 2013, nearly 20 million drives were sold worldwide. With the advent of 3D printed circuitry, will it be possible to print drive parts? INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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© 2014 IHS Alex
Chausovsky Senior Principal Analyst Industrial Automation IHS Technology +1 512 582 2012 Alex.Chausovsky@ihs.com Thank you very much! INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
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