McKinsey & Company 1
Fewer than half of Filipinos believe that the economy will rebound
within two or three months of the COVID-19 pandemic stabilizing
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Philippines Consumer Pulse Survey 10/01–10/12/2020, n = 602, sampled and weighted to match the Philippines general population 20+ years old
Key findings
While overall optimism
remained the same from
April to October, it
dropped significantly
among the lowest
income group, and also
among 20- to 24-year-
olds, while it increased
for the highest income
group
Optimism in banking
improved over the last
six months, while it
dropped among
construction, real
estate, and business
process outsourcing
(BPO); pessimism at least
doubled in food services,
wholesale, and retail
Approximately 50% of
consumers believe their
finances will be
impacted for at least 6
more months, up from
only about 10% last April;
2 out of 3 expect to cut
back on spending
Overall decrease in
spending is expected to
soften after the
pandemic, but most
categories will likely see
spending declines to
linger longer

McKinsey & Company 2
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
1 Q: How is your overall confidence level on economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Surveys
Spain
9/21–29
UK
9/18–27
Italy
9/21–27
China
9/16–24
Brazil
9/21–25
France
9/21–27
9 10 8
17 20
28
17
37
26
35
42
31
49
32 38
38
45
52
51
66
47
60
53
47
62
42
58 58 53
28
20 17 17 14 12 11 7
4
39
US
9/18–24
S. Africa
9/18–29
Japan
9/22–28
India
9/18–27
Unsure: The economy will be
impacted for 6–12 months or
longer and will stagnate or
show slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show regression/
fall into lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy will
rebound within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before COVID-19
The Philippines is more optimistic than European countries but less
so than India, China, or Indonesia
Indonesia
9/21–30
Germany
9/21–29
Philippines
10/1–12

McKinsey & Company
Overall optimism among consumers did not change much between
April and October
7 9 9 6
22 19 20
33 32
26
36
49 49
46
41 38
53 58 52
54 54
60
57
42 42
48
56 58
25 23 28
13 14 14
3 4
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after-COVID-191
Percent of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Surveys
Mar 31–
Apr 1
1 Q: How is your overall confidence level on economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic “to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Apr
17-–20
Philippines
March
20–23
Apr
8-–3
China
March
21–24
Apr
2–5
Brazil
Mar
21–22
Apr
2–5
Italy
Unsure: The
economy will be
impacted for 6–12
months or longer and
will stagnate or show
slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-
19 will have a long
lasting impact on the
economy and show
regression / fall into
lengthy recession
Optimistic: The
economy will rebound
within 2–3 months
and grow just as
strong or stronger
than before COVID-19
Oct
1–12
Sept
16–24
Sept
21–25
Sept
21–27

McKinsey & Company 4
About half of Filipinos believe that the personal and financial
impacts from COVID-19 will last well beyond the next six months
12%
More than one year
41%
6%
11%
30%
April 17
to 20
9%
22%
23%
22%
24%
October
1 to 12
4–6 months
0–1 month
2–3 months
7–12 months
9% 7%
41%
31%
18%
10%
22%
6%
23%
26%
0–1 month
October
1 to 12
3%
April 17
to 20
5%
No impact
2–3 months
4–6 months
7–12 months
More than one year
Adjustments to routines1
% of respondents
Impact to personal/household finances2
% of respondents
1 Q: How long do you believe you need to adjust your routines, given the current COVID-19 situation, before things return back to normal in the Philippines (e.g., government lifts restrictions on events/travel)?
Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Q: How long do you believe your personal/household finances will be impacted by the COVID-19 situation? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Philippines Consumer Pulse Survey 4/17–4/20/2020, n = 639; 10/01–10/12/2020, n = 602, sampled and weighted to match the Philippines general
population 20+ years old
~46%
believe it will take
6+ months before
routines can
return to normal,
with more people,
up from only
17% last April
~50%
believe their finances
will be impacted for
6+ months by the
COVID-19 pandemic,
up from only ~10%
last April

McKinsey & Company 5
Consumer perception is getting slightly better, with fewer people cutting
back and more people going back to work, but a large portion remain unsure
Overall sentiment in the Philippines1
% of respondents
1 Q: To what extent do you currently agree with following statements? Rated from 1 “strongly disagree” to 5 “strongly agree”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
88%
74%
63%
59%
58%
54%
53%
44%
8%
21%
24%
25%
36%
32%
33%
36%
13%
16%
7%
14%
14%
21%
Given the economy and my personal finances,
I have to be very careful how I spend my money
My income has been negatively impacted by COVID-19
I am cutting back on my spending
My ability to work has been reduced by COVID-19
Uncertainty about the economy is preventing me
from making purchases or investments
My ability to make financial ends meet has been
negatively impacted by COVID-19
My job feels less secure because of COVID-19
My health or my family/friends’ health has been
negatively affected by COVID-19
4%
5%
Strongly agree / agree Somewhat disagree / agree Strongly disagree / disagree
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Philippines Consumer Pulse Survey 4/17–4/20/2020, n = 639; 10/01–10/12/2020, n = 602, sampled and weighted to match the Philippines general
population 20+ years old
April 17–20 October 1–12
88%
66%
52%
54%
50%
49%
55%
43%
9%
28%
33%
30%
42%
38%
31%
36%
15%
16%
9%
13%
13%
22%
3%
5%

McKinsey & Company 6
Fewer people are now afraid to go outside for groceries, and more
people are focusing on exercising and healthy eating
Overall sentiment in the Philippines1
% of respondents
1 Q: To what extent do you currently agree with following statements? Rated from 1 “strongly disagree” to 5 “strongly agree”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
83%
80%
72%
53%
49%
34%
15%
15%
24%
36%
44%
48% 17%
3%
I will consider grocery products that are more
environmentally-friendly after COVID-19
I am focused on improving my immunity
through more exercise and healthy eating
My trust for my regular/primary grocery store has
become stronger during the COVID-19 outbreak
4%
I will care more about product safety
after the COVID-19 situation
4%
11%
I am afraid to go outside to shop for groceries now
7%
I think the media coverage of COVID-19 is getting
too sensational and creating more panic
Strongly agree / agree Somewhat disagree / agree Strongly disagree / disagree
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Philippines Consumer Pulse Survey 4/17–4/20/2020, n = 639; 10/01–10/12/2020, n = 602, sampled and weighted to match the Philippines general
population 20+ years old
April 17 to 20 October 1 to 12
86%
79%
71%
38%
48%
40%
12%
16%
26%
50%
43%
46%
12%
9%
14%
2%
5%
3%

McKinsey & Company 7
Anticipated spending after COVID-19 vs before2
% of respondents
31
35
83
30
39
67
68
51
15
44
69
54
66
57
52
73
81
74
15
51
45
7
55
48
13
10
22
65
34
22
26
17
21
17
13
8
11
58
Groceries
Ready-made food from grocery
Food: Restaurant, indoors
Food: Delivery
Food: Takeout
Furnishings & appliances
Apparel
Jewelry & accessories
-Personal-care services
Entertainment at home
Consumer electronics
Out-of-home entertainment
Fitness & wellness
Gasoline
Vehicle purchases
International flights
Hotel/resort stays
Domestic flights
Telecommunications
Spending during COVID-19 vs before1
% of respondents Decrease
Stay the same
Increase
1 Q: How has your spending per month changed during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak for each of the below items? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Q: For each of the following product/service options, how do you expect your spending per month to change after the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
3 Net behavior and net intent are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they expect to decrease spend from the percent of respondents stating they expect to increase spend.
4 Net inflow is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they stopping spending on this category vs those that just started using during or after the outbreak.
Net inflow4
-2%
-14%
-17%
-3%
-7%
-22%
-3%
-8%
-20%
-29%
-22%
-2%
-17%
-30%
-17%
-19%
-29%
-25%
1%
21
30
53
32
31
45
51
44
21
36
49
43
48
36
37
53
56
55
16
49
42
32
47
47
28
18
27
49
36
30
36
31
37
25
32
24
31
48
Net inflow4
-1%
-6%
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Philippines Consumer Pulse Survey 10/01–10/12/2020, n = 602, sampled and weighted to match the Philippines general population 20+ years old
Below -5%
-5 to 5%
Above 5%
-5%
-3%
-9%
-2%
-4%
-9%
-13%
-12%
-3%
-9%
-16%
-3%
-7%
-5%
-12%
-7%
2%
Net
behavior3
20%
-28%
-48%
43%
9%
-75%
25%
9%
-54%
-58%
-29%
50%
-10%
-47%
-35%
-60%
-72%
-63%
-36%
Net intent3
28%
-17%
-6%
13%
-21%
15%
16%
-18%
-33%
-17%
28%
0%
-19%
32%
-12%
-21%
-32%
-23%
1%
Overall decrease in spending is expected to soften after pandemic,
but most categories will likely see spending declines linger
Increase
in spend
likely to
remain
after
pandemic
Decrease
in spend
likely to
linger
longer
after
pandemic

McKinsey & Company 8
Consumption of grocery products increased except for alcoholic beverages,
which is likely to suffer an even longer decline in spend after the pandemic
8
13
8
9
12
11
12
17
15
25
24
22
16
14
19
36
31
27
43
52
25
21
20
19
27
26
25
27
26
25
30
28
33
38
40
28
31
43
35
29
67
65
72
72
61
63
62
56
59
50
46
50
51
48
41
36
38
30
22
20
Fresh meat and seafood
Eggs
Packaged food
Household care
Rice, bread, pasta
Healthcare
Fresh food
Personal care
Household paper goods
Frozen food
Snacks
Deli meats
Dairy
Food prepared in stores
Bottled water
Baby products
Beverages
Pet care
Nonbeer alcoholic bev.
Beer
Stay the same
Increase Decrease
1 Q: For each of the following typical grocery items, how did you or your family’s spending per month change during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Q: For each of the following typical grocery items, how would you expect you or your family’s spending per month to change after the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak?
3 Net behavior and net intent are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they expect to decrease spend from the percent of respondents stating they expect to increase spend.
4 Net inflow is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they stopping spending on this category vs those that just started using during or after the outbreak.
0%
-1%
-8%
-1%
-1%
0%
-1%
0%
0%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-3%
-4%
-1%
-5%
Net Inflow4
Consumption during COVID-19 situation vs
before,1 % of respondents who buy each item
Anticipated consumption after COVID-19 situation
vs before,2 % of respondents who buy each item
-2%
-8%
Net Inflow4
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Philippines Consumer Pulse Survey 10/01–10/12/2020, n = 602, sampled and weighted to match the Philippines general population 20+ years old
Below -5% -5 to 5% Above 5%
1%
-2%
11
23
11
10
13
12
13
13
18
29
26
27
17
15
20
35
29
24
38
43
38
36
29
29
39
35
36
34
38
34
40
36
41
46
45
31
40
51
40
34
50
41
60
61
48
53
51
52
45
37
34
37
42
39
35
34
32
25
22
23
0%
-1%
-4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-2%
0%
-4%
1%
-2%
59%
3%
-22%
52%
64%
62%
49%
52%
50%
39%
45%
25%
22%
28%
36%
0%
Net
Behavior3
34%
-32%
21%
6%
Net Intent3
39%
1%
-15%
19%
49%
51%
34%
41%
38%
39%
27%
7%
7%
10%
26%
-1%
24%
-20%
16%
3%

McKinsey & Company 9
The shift in consumers’ preference toward grocery and food
delivery/takeout could linger post-COVID-19
1 Q: How has your spending per month changed during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak for each of the below items?
2 Q: For each of the following product/service, how do you expect your spending per month to change after the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak?
3 Net behavior and net intent are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they expect to decrease spend from the percent of respondents stating they expect to increase spend.
Indoor dining at
restaurants could
potentially see longer
lingering effects from
COVID-19
Spend preference during
COVID-19 vs before,1
Net behavior3
Anticipated spend preference
after COVID-19 vs before,2
Net intent3
Food: Restaurant, indoors
-19% +2%
Grocery +36% +33%
Food: Takeout
-75% -15%
Food: Delivery
+5% +8%
Ready-made food purchased
from grocery stores
+29% +16%
Decrease Stay the same Increase
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Philippines Consumer Pulse Survey 4/17–4/20/2020, n = 639 ; 10/01–10/12/2020, n = 602, sampled and weighted to match the Philippines general
population 20+ years old
April 17–20 April 17–20
+9% +16%
+20% +28%
-75% -21%
+25% +15%
+9% +13%
Oct 1–12 Oct 1–12

McKinsey & Company 10
Disclaimer
McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or
guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice
based on information currently available and do not contain all of the
information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information
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