US brewed beer exports have consistently grown for years now. Cross Border Consultants LLC, a trading and distribution company, takes a look at recent trends and which countries are the most promising for US brewers looking to sell their beers abroad.
8. Target Market Demographics
Population
Population growth
rate (%)
Literacy (%)
Unemployment
(%)
GDP (trillion)
GDP growth rate
(%)
GDP per
capita
Inflation rate
(%)
Country Risk*
Australia 22,262,501 1.11 99 5.2 1.542 3.6 $43,300.00 1.8 A2
Canada 34,568,211 0.77 99 7.3 1.819 1.8 $43,400.00 1.5 A1
China 1,349,585,838 0.46 95.1 6.5 8.227 7.8 $9,300.00 2.6 A3
Colombia 45,745,783 1.1 93.6 10.4 0.366 4 $11,000.00 3.2 A4
France 65,951,611 0.47 99 10.3 2.609 0 $36,100.00 2.2 A3
Germany 81,147,265 -0.19 99 5.5 3.401 0.7 $39,700.00 2.1 A2
Mexico 116,220,947 1.07 93.5 5 1.177 3.9 $15,600.00 4.1 A4
Spain 47,370,542 0.73 97.7 25.1 1.352 -1.4 $31,100.00 2.4 B
UK 63,395,574 0.55 99 8 2.441 0.2 $37,500.00 2.8 A3
Turkey 80,694,485 1.16 94.1 9.2 0.794 2.6 $15,200.00 8.9 A4
* Based on a scale of A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C and D. Coface's
estimate of the average credit risk on a country’s businesses.
This is giving an indication of a country’s potential influence
on businesses’ financial commitments. Of course, there may
be some very solid businesses in high-risk countries, just as
there may be some risky ones in reliable countries. The
overall risk is thus a combination of business-specific factors
and factors relating to the country in which the business
operates.
9. Target Market Business Climate
Business climate Coface*
Index of
Economic Freedom**
Economic Freedom
of the World^
World Bank
Doing Business~
Australia A1 3 10 10
Canada A1 6 8 17
China B 136 123 91
Colombia A4 37 96 45
France A1 62 40 34
Germany A1 19 19 20
Mexico A4 50 94 48
Spain A1 46 32 44
UK A1 14 12 7
Turkey A4 69 68 71
10. *Evaluating the business environment involves measuring the quality of a country’s private sector governance
– in other words businesses’ financial transparency and the effectiveness of the courts in settling debts. This
assessment relies on Coface’s worldwide network and the expertise deriving from its experience in
underwriting risks, investigating companies and managing receivables. Coface's business environment
evaluations use a seven-level ranking. In ascending order of risk these are: A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C and D.
**The Index of Economic Freedom, an annual guide published by The Wall Street Journal and The Heritage
Foundation, measures liberty, prosperity and economic freedom by creating 10 benchmarks that gauge the
economic success of 185 countries around the world. The rankings are on a scale of 1 - 185.
^The index published by the Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom of the World measures the degree to which
the policies and institutions of countries are supportive of economic freedom. The cornerstones of economic
freedom are personal choice, voluntary exchange, freedom to compete, and security of privately owned
property. Forty-two data points are used to construct a summary index and to measure the degree of
economic freedom in five broad areas: (1) size of government: expenditures, taxes, and enterprises; (2) legal
structure and security of property rights; (3) access to sound money; (4) freedom to trade internationally; and
(5) regulation of credit, labor and business. The rankings are on a scale of 1 - 152.
~The World Bank's annual Doing Business Project. Economies are ranked on their ease of doing business, from
1 – 185. A high ranking on the ease of doing business index means the regulatory environment is more
conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm. This index averages the country's percentile rankings on
10 topics, made up of a variety of indicators, giving equal weight to each topic. The rankings for all economies
are benchmarked to June 2012.
11. Why Use Economic
“Freedom” indexes?
The relationship between economic
freedom and prosperity is
strong. Using the Index of Economic
Freedom where economies are scaled
on a range from 80 – 100 which are
“most free,” 70 - 79.9 , which are
“mostly free,” 60 – 69.9, which are
“moderately free,” 50 – 59.9, which
are “mostly unfree,” and 0 – 49.9,
which are “repressed.” Looking at the
bar chart we can determine countries
that tilt toward market economics
have healthy GDP per capita figures.
For example, US consumer spending
accounts for 70 percent of GDP and
has a ranking of 76. We can assume
similar markets’ consumers’
purchasing power are in a better
position than their lower ranked,
international peers to buy foreign
goods.
$0.00
$5,000.00
$10,000.00
$15,000.00
$20,000.00
$25,000.00
$30,000.00
$35,000.00
$40,000.00
Least
Free
Third Second Most
Free
GDPpercapitaPPP(US$2011)
Economic Freedom Quartile
12. Australia Opportunities and Challenges
• Favorable tariff schedule under U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA)
• Australia was ranked fourth internationally in per capita beer consumption, at
around 110 litres per year
• The overwhelming proportion of beer produced is lager (approximately
95%), the most popular among Australian beer drinkers.
Opportunities
• Strong Australian dollar will translate into cheaper imported goods
Challenges
• Company bankruptcies accelerated in the first eight months of 2012 and
payments could continue to be delayed
• Household consumption will continue to drive growth in 2013, but the rise in
spending will be less sustained
• In World Bank’s Doing Business report Australia ranked 44 out of 185 in terms
of trading across borders
• Discretionary spending will remain tight with households preferring to
build up their precautionary savings
13. Canada Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities
• The top selling style of beer in Canada, by far, is the pale lager
• Regarding spending, Canadians in 2013 and 2014 will reduce their savings to
compensate for modest increase in real wages.
• Many factors will help sustain business spending: U.S. QE3, lower taxes, and
competitive prices for imported products thanks to strong Canadian dollar
• By volume, imported beer more than doubled its market share in past decade.
In 2009, imported beer captured 13% of market, up from six per cent in 1999
Challenges
• Per-capita beer sales have dropped 28 per cent from their peak of 115.2 litres
in 1976 to 83.5 litres in 2009
• High household debt level
• Canadian customs documentation, bilingual labeling, packaging requirements, and
Canadian federal and provincial sales tax accounting can be surprisingly challenging
• Increasing competition in a number of sectors translates into a need for
competitive pricing, aggressive, flashy marketing, and deep discounts for agents
and distributors
14. China Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities
• In 2010 China eased trade finance by relaxing its trade credit rules
• Gradual move up-market
• Household consumption continues to grow moderately
• By 2020, China‘s middle class is expected to account for around 45 percent of
the population, or approximately 700 million people.
Challenges
• Share of consumption in GDP remains weak: rebalancing China’s growth
model remains a medium term challenge
• Overcapacity in industry and trade
• China often lacks predictability in its business environment. China‘s current legal
and regulatory system can be opaque, inconsistent, often arbitrary, and corrupt
• While the outright prohibition of foreign invested firms to import, export and
distribute goods in China has improved, the licensing and approval process
remains difficult, time consuming and highly opaque
15. Colombia Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities
• The growing popularity of beer among Colombia's middle classes is predicted
to increase volume sales by about 14% between 2012 and 2017. The growing
appreciation of international premium varieties means that sales are expected
to grow at a slightly faster rate
• Leading international brands are gradually finding markets in wealthy
metropolitan areas, which will lead to an increase in consumption
• Beer receives immediate duty-free treatment since May 2012
• A strong Colombian peso against the U.S. dollar is favoring U.S. exports
Challenges
• Many other trade agreements has increased competition for U.S. products
• Internal transportation costs from ports of entry are costly due extremely
poor infrastructure
• Colombia’s bureaucracy still constitutes a barrier to trade for both local and
foreign companies
• U.S. suppliers should be aware that their ability to compete in Colombia could be
hampered by unfair business practices such as
contraband, counterfeiting, intellectual property rights violations, under-
invoicing, money laundering, and dumping.
16. France Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities
• High savings level, low household debt
• Most beer sold in France is mass-produced, with major breweries having
control of over 90% of the market and pilsner lagers predominating
• An increasing interest in American culture, younger consumers, and
changing lifestyles contribute to France’s import demand for American food
and beverage products
• In 2009 France speeded up and simplified its customs clearance procedures
by introducing an electronic customs declaration and eliminating certain
documents
Challenges
• The rise in unemployment, low business profitability, loss of confidence, and
the significant fiscal shock suggest that there will be a fall in domestic demand
• Household consumption will continue to slow in response both to more
job losses and lower purchasing power
• Business profit margins are at their lowest levels since 1985
• Overall beer consumption was down 14% between 1991 and 2010
17. German Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities
• A 2010 report showed that Germany ranked second in terms of per-capita
beer consumption, behind the Czech Republic and ahead of Austria (third)
and Ireland (fourth)
• Germany is the 5th largest U.S. trading partner globally and the top importer
of U.S. goods in the EU (in 2011)
• Price is not necessarily the determining factor for the German buyer, given
the German market’s demand for quality
• The strong growth of sales to non-European countries will only partially offset
declining or weak growth in European countries. At the same time, imports
could accelerate slightly in line with household demand.
Challenges
• While not directly discriminatory, government regulation by virtue of its
complexity may offer a degree of protection to established local suppliers
• GDP grew by 0.7% in 2012. Forecasts show annual growth of 0.4 percent in 2013
• Demographic decline
• Some German entrepreneurs with selective experience with U.S. companies are
skeptical about their long-term commitment and after-sales support
18. Mexico Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities
• Mexican beer is distinctive for its lager-like properties, being generally light-
bodied with a mild taste and is meant to be drunk cold. Most beer is sold in
325ml bottles and certain brands often sold in cans
• Consumption will benefit from a healthy labor market, credit growth
and the moderation of food and energy prices
• Vast market (112 million inhabitants)
• World players in cement, beer, telephony
Challenges
• Most Mexican microbrews are exported to the U.S., as it is difficult for small
breweries to compete in the Mexican market
• Competition will be tough. Mexico displaced Holland in 2003 as the
worldwide leader in beer sales. Grupo Modelo and FEMSA send more than
80% of their exports to the U.S. Mexican beer's growth is coming largely at
the expense of U.S. brands.
• High crime level linked to drug trafficking
• Strong domestic demand has led to high import flows, but the peso’s
exchange rate, which floats fairly freely though on a long-term slight
devaluation trend against the dollar, is favorable to exports
19. Spain Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities
• Spain’s trade policy is the same as that of other members of the European Union, with
the common EU weighted average tariff rate standing at 1.6 percent
• Spain has improved the procedural requirements for exporting and importing
goods
• More and more Spaniards are beginning to drink beer instead. Most attribute it
to the country experiencing a large number of microbreweries
opening, particularly in areas like Catalonia. These microbreweries are helping the
industry to grow and transform
Challenges
• Very high unemployment, especially among the young
• Consumption is expected to be badly affected by the fall in household disposable
income
• Momentum for deeper economic and structural reforms appears to largely
stalled.
• Businesses are confronted not only with a fall in domestic sales but also with a shortage
of finance, higher taxes and the ending of subsidies
20. United Kingdom Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities
• The financial situation of businesses has improved
• English beer styles include bitter, mild, brown ale and old ale. Stout was also
originally brewed in London. Other developments include consolidation growth of
beer consumerism; expansion of microbreweries and increased interest in bottle
conditioned beers
• Imported beers are increasingly popular, especially brewers from Eastern Europe
• With few trade barriers, the United Kingdom is the entry market into the EU for
over 41,000 U.S. exporters
Challenges
• Household consumption should remain weak especially as the level of debt remains
high
•Imports will grow only slightly due to household and business caution
• Weak consumer confidence and broadly static wages continue to dampen retail sales
• As UK and third-country suppliers represent strong competition, U.S. exporters need to
offer differentiated products at competitive prices
21. Turkey Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities
• Beer is a very popular alcoholic beverage in Turkey. Commonly lager type beers are
popular
• The Turkish beer market experienced 20% growth from 2001 to 2005 with many
international brands gaining popularity.
• The food and beverages industry will perform well in 2013 and beyond
• In 2008 Turkey eased trade by introducing an Electronic Data Interchange, improving
IT infrastructure and training of some 2500 customs officers and 14,000 traders
Challenges
• The lira continues to depreciate against the dollar and euro, it even reached a historical low
point in August 2013, making imports more expensive
• The government intends to boost its revenues by increasing taxes paid by
motorists, and by raising alcohol and tobacco prices
• The country is now in open crisis with Syria while tensions with the Kurd minority
remain high
• U.S. exporters face many challenges, such as contradictory policies, regulations and
documentation requirements, lack of transparency etc.