This presentation discusses the impact of bureaucracy and governance on the current and future disaster scenarios and the possible enhanced action that could be provided by “smart cities” when used as force multiplier.

1. FLOOD BY DESIGN:
CHALLENGES WITH
GOVERNANCE OF DISASTER
RISK IN LIGURIA, ITALY
Massimo Lanfranco @EC-JRC
TIEMS International Italy Conference, Rome 2015
Session 10
New approaches and methods for Emergency Management

2. Disaster risk
reduction
governance
framework
Science
The physical
environment
Agenda
Smart cities
The science-
policy
interface

3. Physical environment
LIGURIA

4. LIGURIA
http://geoportale.regione.liguria.it/
30 km

5. LIGURIA
09 October 2014
H 22:30H 17:30

6. Climate change
DOES IT MATTERS?
NOT FOR FLOODS!
Temperature

7. Sea temperature
IT MATTERS!
Climate change

8. A new problem?

9. Annual rain
Annual rain – average 1961-2010 (50 years)
From Atlante Climatico della Liguria – ARPAL (2013)
Climate change

10. Rain change
Annual rain
change 1981-2010 (last 30 years) compared to 1961-1990 (first 30 years)
From Atlante Climatico della Liguria – ARPAL (2013)
Climate change

11. Rain change
Spring
Summer
Winter
1981-2010
1961-1990
Autumn
From Atlante Climatico della Liguria– ARPAL (2013)

12. Daily rain Recent floods

13. Montly disasters occurence
From ARPAL (2013)

14. Varazze event 04/10/2010
• 24 hrs rain rate: 324 mm
(but as much as 700 mm was reported by citizens)
• 3 hrs rain rate: 290 mm
• 1hr rain rate: 180 mm
• => Return time estimated over 200 yr
But in Liguria is it statistically significant?
Rainfall data from “La Ramognina”

15. Varazze worst historical floods
1593 - 1915

16. Sea level riseClimate change
1 m

17. Wild fires

18. Urban sprawl
1700 2010
Varazze

19. Genova
1780 2010
Urban sprawl

20. THINGS WE KNOW
Ligurian catchment are mainly very small
(1 – 10 km2)
Very high rainfall: cloudburst up to 180mm/hr
Concentration time shorter than 1 hour
24 hr rain is not consistent
Autumn is dangerous, but ...

21. THINGS WE THINK WE KNOW
Climate is changing
Probabilistic rain forecast may work
Sea level rise will be moderate (<0.5 m)
Wildfires could cause/increase debris flood
Urban sprawl is ended years ago

22. Legislation #1 Basin Plan

23. Civil Protection PlanLegislation #2

24. Urban PlanLegislation #3
In 50-years flood NO new buildings
In 200-years flood YES new buildings in LOWER risk areas
BUT the Italian law permits a 20% increase in volume when
retrofit a civil building
From www.greenreport.it/
AULLA - 2011 flood
From http://parliamodivarazze.blog.tiscali.it/
Varazze

26. GOVERNANCE

27. CORRUPTION

28. DRR ACTIONS
From Walter J. Amman – GRF Davos
PLANNING
CIVIL WORKS
COMMUNICATION
&
INFORMATION

29. SMART CITIES

31. http://dublindashboard.ie/pages/DublinEnvironment

32. Where is smart Emergency Management?
Frost & Sullivan http://ww2.frost.com/

33. But ...

34. Science to policy
The worrying impact of climate change
isn’t what we know,
but what we don’t

35. Total failure of scientific advisors to engage politicians
Science to policy

36. WHO HAVE TO PASS THE MESSAGE?
Science to policy

37. “I can write it down: in Liguria more floods”
Science to policy

39. Suggested readings
Ravetz, J. R. (1986). Usable knowledge, usable ignorance:
incomplete science with policy implications. In Clark, W. C., and R.
C. Munn, eds. Sustainable development of the biosphere,
p. 415–432. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Funtowicz, S.O. and J.R. Ravetz (1990). Uncertainty and Quality in
Science for Policy. Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands.
Saltelli A. and Giampietro M. (2015) The fallacy of evidence
based policy. FUTURES, 2015 special issue.

40. Thank you!
Contact:
Massimo Lanfranco
European Commission
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Institute for the Protection and Security of
the Citizen (IPSC)
Global Security and Crisis Management Unit
Via Enrico Fermi 2749
21027 Ispra VA, Italy
massimo.lanfranco@jrc.ec.europa.eu