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Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S.
August 1, 2010
U.S. consumers have been caught in an economic freefall over the past two years, but
the crisis appears to be nearing an end. However, the significant changes in attitudes
and behaviors brought about by these recessionary pressures persist, with consumers
continuing to rethink what value means and monitor spending carefully. In this
environment, the growing focus on nutrition as a means to wellness—coupled with
renewed interest in eating at home and demand for “comfort food”—has spurred
bakeries to provide healthy products that offer high-quality ingredients and a restaurant-
quality experience at appealing prices.
These combined trends have resulted in steady, if modest, growth in sales of fresh
baked goods over the past five years. Retail sales of fresh bread and sweet baked
items topped $16 billion in 2009, up 4.2% from the previous year. And as bakeries grow
ever more creative in meeting consumer demand for specific types of products and the
economy improves, this rate of growth is likely to improve. Taking all market trends into
account, Packaged Facts projects that the market will grow by 26% between 2009 and
2014, to reach $20.1 billion at retail.
A completely new report from Packaged Facts, Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S. offers
a comprehensive look at the overriding trends in the market. The report examines
baked goods that are prepared fresh at both in-store and stand-alone bakeries, using
preparation methods such as made-from-scratch, mixes, par-baking (or pre-baking) and
thaw-and-heat. It also analyzes trends in the key retail channels through which baked
goods are sold—both stand-alone bakeries and in-store outlets—including traditional
supermarkets, supercenters/mass merchandisers, natural food stores, and warehouse
clubs. The report also examines activity at the foodservice level, where trends in baked
goods often start, focusing on high-growth areas including bakery cafés.
A special feature is May/June 2010 custom Packaged Facts research on consumer
attitudes and purchasing patterns. Specifically tailored for this report, the survey details
consumer preferences for baked goods channels and items purchased, in addition to
other psychographic indicators. Additional demographic analysis derives from data
compiled by Experian Simmons, New York, NY, including indexing of consumers most
or least likely to often eat different types of breads. The report also breaks out sales by

2. type of bread or sweet baked good for numerous segments, details market growth
drivers and projects future sales, identifies competitive opportunities including
sustainability appeals, and tracks trends at in-store bakeries.
Additional Information
Market Insights: A Selection From The Report
Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues
Baked goods are sold in an ever-broadening range of retail venues, including
mainstream supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters,
warehouse clubs, natural food stores, and gourmet/specialty food stores (including
specialty bakeries). The products are also sold through a host of foodservice channels,
including coffee shops, bakeries, delis and quick-service restaurants. Packaged Facts
estimates that supermarkets and grocery stores lead the market for fresh baked goods,
accounting for 56% of total retail dollar sales in 2009. Supercenters and mass
merchandisers account for only 9% of total fresh baked goods sales, but that number is
likely to grow in 2010 as the impact of the recession lingers. [Figure 1-1]
Warehouse Stores
At warehouse stores, “bigger” is better and “more” is the order of the day. With 22% of
in-store bakery customers shopping at warehouse clubs, according to Packaged Facts
custom research, warehouse clubs are a definite force in the in-store bakery market.
More and more consumers have flocked to the channel as a result of the recession, and
the popularity of Sam’s Club, Costco and B.J.’s Wholesale Club have grown
dramatically. With a focus on bulk purchases, the in-store bakeries of these stores are
known for their size and affordable fare. Sam’s Club, for example, can charge half the
price of other in-store and independent bakeries for traditional sheet cakes. And
consumers looking to serve 100 people at a birthday gathering will not find lower prices
than those offered by warehouse clubs. Additionally, 24-packs of cookies, doughnuts
and other bakery items cover large table displays throughout the bakery.
On the other hand, the product selections usually tend...
Healthier Fare
It comes as no surprise that “good-for-you foods” was among the top five food trends for
2010 at the 35th Winter Fancy Food Show in San Francisco, as reported by the website
specialtyfoods.com (January 19, 2010). The panel of experts who ranked the top food
trends were merely confirming a long-growing trend toward healthier eating in the U.S.

3. One of the ways consumers are “eating healthy” is by pursuing foods and beverages
with a higher nutritional value. In Packaged Facts’ May/June 2010 consumer survey,
which is based on a national sample of 1,881 U.S. adults, 35% of the individuals
surveyed agreed with the statement, “I frequently use nutritionally fortified food and
beverage products,” with 8% indicating strong agreement. Additionally, 51% agreed with
the statement, “I love eating healthy” and 29% agreed that “I eat very healthy.” [Table
4-1]
Consumer Interest in Health, Convenience and Localism Fuel $16 Billion U.S.
Market for Fresh Baked Goods
New York, July 29, 2010 — Consumer interest in healthy eating, artisan foods and
“localism” countered recessionary pressures and helped fuel the fresh baked goods
market to grow 4% in 2009 to reach $16 billion, according to Fresh Baked Goods in
the U.S. by market research publisher Packaged Facts.
Total fresh baked goods sales experienced slow but steady growth in the 2%-4% range
throughout the 2005-2009 period, with the exception of 2008 when the market saw
almost 6% growth. Fresh baked goods sales from in-store bakeries including those of
warehouse clubs also experienced steady growth, in the 2%-5% range, reaching $11
billion in 2010 and comprising nearly three-quarters of the total retail market.
Packaged Facts projects that the market for fresh bakes goods will exceed $20 billion
by 2014.
Packaged Facts divides the fresh baked goods market into two major product
classifications: sweet baked goods and breads. The sweet baked goods classification
encompasses cakes, cupcakes, cookies, pies, brownies and other baked dessert
products. The breads classification encompasses bread (including sliced and unsliced
loaves), rolls, pitas and croissants. This report also discusses breakfast baked goods
(which overlap both classifications), including doughnuts, muffins, breakfast breads,
bagels/bialys and sweet rolls.
“Although fresh baked goods are produced and sold in a wide variety of retail channels,
certain overriding trends have affected how these products are marketed across most
channels,” says Don Montuori, publisher of Packaged Facts. “For example, consumer
demand for specific kinds of products—such as those that fill specific dietary needs or
budgetary concerns—has led retailers to adapt in terms of both product offerings and
marketing strategies. In the fresh baked goods market, those bakeries that have
managed to succeed in this challenging environment have done so by evaluating and
quickly responding to these shifts in consumer demand with products that fulfill a variety
of consumer needs and wants.”

4. A new report from Packaged Facts, Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S. offers a
comprehensive look at the overriding trends in the market. The report examines baked
goods that are prepared fresh at both in-store and stand-alone bakeries, using
preparation methods such as made-from-scratch, mixes, par-baking (or pre-baking) and
thaw-and-heat. It also analyzes trends in the key retail channels through which baked
goods are sold—both stand-alone bakeries and in-store outlets—including traditional
supermarkets, supercenters/mass merchandisers, natural food stores, and warehouse
clubs. Additionally, the report examines activity at the foodservice level, where trends in
baked goods often start, focusing on high-growth areas including bakery cafés. For
About Packaged Facts - Packaged Facts, a division of MarketResearch.com,
publishes market intelligence on a wide range of consumer market topics, including
consumer goods and retailing, foods and beverages, demographics, pet products and
services, and financial products. Packaged Facts also offers a full range of custom
research services.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Introduction
Scope of Report
Report Methodology
Market Size and Growth
Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession
Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues
Figure 1-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Fresh Baked Goods: By Channel,
2009 (percent)
Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share
Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries
Retailing Trends
Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries
Figure 1-2: Fresh Baked Breads: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences,
May/June 2010 (percent)
Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments
Supermarkets
Mass Merchandisers
Natural Food Stores
Warehouse Stores
Baking & Marketing Trends
Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape
Healthier Fare
Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option
Whole Grains for Health
Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options

5. Sugar-Free Options Still Popular
Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam
Natural and Organic Products
Environmentally Friendly Baking and “Going Local”
Affordable Luxuries
Artisan and Small-Batch Goods
Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods
Flavor Adventure
Foodservice Trends
Bakery Cafés Grow in Popularity
Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal
Consumer Trends
Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum
Figure 1-3: Household Usage Rates by Top Type(s) of Bread Used Most Often,
2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity
Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster
Chapter 2: Market Trends
Introduction
Scope of Report
Excluded Products
Report Methodology
Market Size and Growth
Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession
Table 2-1: Total U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Baked Goods, 2005-2009 (in millions
of dollars)
Table 2-2: In-Store Service Bakery Annual Sales, 2000-2010 (in billions of
dollars)
Table 2-3: SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods, 2008 vs.
2009 (in millions of dollars)
Market Composition
Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues
Figure 2-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Fresh Baked Goods: By Channel,
2009 (percent)
Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share
Packaged Products Break Out Differently
Figure 2-2: Share of In-Store Bakery Department Dollar Sales by Product
Classification, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent)
Table 2-4: Share of SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods by
Category and Segment, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent)
Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries
Table 2-5: Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries,
May/June 2010 (percent)
Cakes and Cupcakes
Figure 2-3: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Cake, 2009 (percent)
Retailer Perspective: United Supermarkets

6. Cookies
Pies
Baker’s Perspective: Rocky Mountain Pies
Other Desserts
Breads
Figure 2-4: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Bread, 2009 (percent)
Table 2-6: Percentage of Consumers Purchasing Fresh Baked Bread by Type:
May/June 2010
Artisan Breads
Rolls
Figure 2-5: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Rolls, 2009 (percent)
Doughnuts
Figure 2-6: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Doughnuts, 2009
(percent)
Sweet Goods
Figure 2-7: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Sweet Goods, 2009
(percent)
Muffins
Figure 2-8: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Muffins, 2009
(percent)
Bagels
Market Outlook
Economy Slowly Improving
Table 2-7: Economy-Influenced Spending by U.S. Consumers: Less in General
vs. Less on Groceries, May/June 2010 (percent)
Table 2-8: Agreement with Statement, “Compared to 3 Months Ago, How Much
Are You Doing Any of the Following Right Now?”, May/June 2010 (percent)
Fresh Baked Goods: An Affordable Luxury
Figure 2-9: Changes in Consumer Bakery Buying Habits, 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-10: Bakery Items Consumers Purchase Less Frequently, 2009 (percent)
Eat-At-Home Movement Benefits Fresh Baked Goods Market
Eating Healthy
Table 2-9: Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Dietary Claims,
2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
Table 2-10: Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Sales Gains on
Dietary Claims, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
Heart-Healthy Grains
Gluten-Free and Other Allergy Concerns
Portion Control and Convenience
Natural and Organic
“Clean Label” Foods
Baking—Naturally
Environmental Concerns
Impact of Healthcare Reform
Figure 2-11: Grocery Manufacturer Survey: “Which Topic Will Be Most Important
to Your Business in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)

7. Figure 2-12: Grocery Manufacturer Survey: “What Do You Think Consumers Will
Be Looking for in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-13: Retailer Survey: “Which Topic Will Have the Greatest Impact on
Your Business in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-14: Retailer Survey: “What Initiatives Are Your Company Most Likely to
Focus on in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Food and Beverage Industry Reacts
Food Safety Legislation
Baked Goods Sales Through 2014
Table 2-11: Projected U.S. Sales of Baked Goods Through Retail Channels,
2009-2014 (in millions of dollars)
Chapter 3: Retail Trends
Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries
Figure 3-1: Fresh Baked Breads: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences,
May/June 2010 (percent)
Figure 3-2: Fresh Sweet Baked Goods: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences,
May/June 2010 (percent)
Figure 3-3: In-Store Bakery: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June
2010 (percent)
Table 3-1: In-Store Service Bakery Percent of Total Store Sales, 2000-2010
(percent)
Table 3-2: Number of In-Store Service Bakeries 2000-2010
Preparation Methods
Table 3-3: How In-Store Service Bakeries Prepare Products, 2008 vs. 2010
(percent)
Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments
Table 3-4: Problems Facing Bakery Departments, 2009 vs. 2010
Supermarkets
Illustration 3-1: Refrigerated Display Case at Rouses—Fresh Baked Cakes and
Pies Featuring Local Strawberries
Illustration 3-2: Fresh Baked Cake and Pie Refrigerated Display Case at Rouses
Featuring “Remarkable Buys!”
Mass Merchandisers
Illustration 3-3: In-Store Bakery Display in Walmart Featuring “Unbeatable
Prices”
Illustration 3-4: In-Store Bakery Department Self-Serve Pastry Case in Walmart
Illustration 3-5: In-Store Bakery Department in Walmart—Location and Banners
Natural Food Stores
Illustration 3-6: In-Store Bakery Department in Whole Foods—Gourmet Pastry
Case
Warehouse Stores
Illustration 3-7: In-Store Bakery Department in Sam’s—Cup Cakes and Sheet
Cakes
Illustration 3-8: In-Store Bakery Department in Sam’s—Table Displays
Wholesale and Retail Bakeries
Wholesalers Ramp Up Production

8. Retail Bakeries Expand Nationwide, Internationally
Illustration 3-10: Façade of Newport Beach, CA’s Wonderland Bakery
Bakery Perspective: Tom Cat Bakery
Chapter 4: Baking & Marketing Trends
Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape
Healthier Fare
Table 4-1: “I Frequently Use Nutritionally Fortified Food and Beverage Products,”
May/June 2010 (percent)
Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option
Illustration 4-1: Display Case of Single-Serve Desserts at Whole Foods
Whole Grains for Health
Table 4-2: Food Types People Eat to Ensure That Their Diet Is Healthy, 2010
(percent)
Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options
Retailer Perspective: Whole Foods
Illustration 4-2: Whole Foods Gluten Free Bakehouse Label
Sugar-Free Options Still Popular
Olive Oil as Ingredient
Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam
Natural and Organic Products
Table 4-3: Purchasing of Natural/Organic Food Products by Type, July 2009-
March 2010 (percent of U.S. households)
Environmentally Friendly Baking and “Going Local”
Affordable Luxuries
Table 4-4: Consumer Purchasing Habits: Gourmet Products, May/June 2010
(percent)
Artisan and Small-Batch Goods
Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods
Whoopie Pies
Caramelized Flavors
Flavor Adventure
Retailer Profile: Sucré
Illustration 4-3: Gift Box of Macaroons from New Orleans’ Sucré Sweet Shop
Bacon…and Cupcakes?
Chapter 5: Foodservice Trends
Bakery Cafés Grow in Popularity
Table 5-1: Top 20 Largest Foodservice Bakery Operations by Number of Outlets,
2009 (in millions of dollars)
Table 5-2: Household Usage Rates for Leading Doughnut and Bakery Chains,
2009/10 (percent and number in millions of U.S. households)
Smaller Foodservice Bakery Cafés Find Success
Panera Bread Co
Table 5-3: Demographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10
(percent and index of U.S. adults)

9. Table 5-4: Psychographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10
(percent and index of U.S. adults)
[Illustration 5-1]: Donation Bin for Panera’s Nonprofit Store Concept
Coffeehouses Increase Profits with Baked Goods
Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal
Chapter 6: Consumer Trends
Note on Experian Simmons Survey Data
Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum
Table 6-1: Household Usage Rates by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White,
2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Table 6-2: Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White,
2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (millions of U.S. households)
Figure 6-1: Household Usage Rates by Top Type(s) of Bread Used Most Often,
2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Table 6-3: Household Penetration Rates by Types of Bread Used and Used Most
Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S.
households)
Remix Rather Than Revolution in Bread Preferences
Table 6-4: Household Usage Rates By Types of Bread Used, Used Most Often,
and Also Used: 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Whole Grain vs. White Bread Psychographics
Table 6-5: Psychographic Patterns by Types of Bread Used Most Often: Whole
Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2009 (percent and index)
Psychographics for Individual Types of Bread
Table 6-6: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with
Statement, “I Work at Eating a Well-Balanced Diet,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-7: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with
Statement, “I Try to Include Plenty of Fiber in My Diet,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-8: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with
Statement, “Usually Only Snack on Healthy Foods,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-9: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with
Statement, “When I Shop for Foods, I Look for Organic/Natural Products,” 2009
(percent and index)
Table 6-10: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with
Statement, “I Try to Eat Gourmet Food Whenever I Can,” 2009 (percent and
index)
Table 6-11: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with
Statement, “I Look for the Freshest Ingredients When I Cook,” 2009 (percent and
index)
Table 6-12: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with
Statement, “Don’t Have Time to Prepare or Eat Healthy Meals,” 2009 (percent
and index)
Demographics for Individual Types of Bread
Table 6-13: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Gender,
2009 (U.S. households)

10. Table 6-14: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Adult
Age Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-15: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By
Race/Ethnicity, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-16: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By
Geographic Region, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-17: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By
Household Income Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households)
Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity
Table 6-18: Household Usage Rates for Selected Specialty Breads, 2003-2009
(percent of U.S. households)
Table 6-19: Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White,
2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households)
Fresh Bagels Gain at Frozen’s Expense
Table 6-20: Household Usage Rates for Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2003-2009
(millions of U.S. households)
Fresh vs. Frozen Bagel Psychographics
Table 6-21: Psychographic Patterns for Use of Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2009
(percent and index)
Demographics for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels
Table 6-22: Purchasing Indices for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels: By Selected
Demographic Traits, 2009 (U.S. households)
Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster
Table 6-23: Household Usage Rates for Selected Packaged Breakfast Pastries,
2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households)
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